The growth rate of my assets over 90 days is 100.93%, which is higher than 99.6% of Binance users! ❤️
How did I achieve this?
Easily! Disciplined trend trading. Using simple entry criteria! Moreover, I only trade a few assets - $BTC $ETH $SUI and do not spread myself thin on other coins.
In a long-term bearish trend, when $BTC is below the weekly MA50, the best setups for shorts or selling will occur when the price is near the RSI level of 70. Historically, there have been at least 2 such instances. At the same time, drops below the 25 RSI level in a long-term bearish trend are always more frequent - around 3-4.
✔️📉 Accordingly, when Bitcoin approaches the RSI level of 70, it’s wise to look for setups to open a short position! For example, a red bearish daily candlestick is one of those signs.
❌📈 On the other hand, going long or buying would be a bad option, especially in a long-term bearish trend!
1. How do daily candlesticks react to the monthly FVG? 2. How did the reversal from the second monthly FVG and MSS happen in 2022? 3. How did the complete Bitcoin reversal occur? 4. How did the breakout of the monthly FVG happen?
Studying the historical behavior of $BTC during previous downturns can provide valuable insights for planning future trades!
📉 Right now, the price is testing the second monthly FVG and could reverse from it for a drop! (👉link)
📚 Abbreviations in the post and the image:
1. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) - this is a trading concept (strategy) based on analyzing the actions of 'smart money', studying liquidity, imbalance zones (FVG), and timing for entering trades.
2. FVG (Fair Value Gap) - this is a price gap or imbalance that occurs during a sharp, impulsive price movement, when there is an unfilled area between the first and third candlestick in a three-candle combo. In trading, FVG acts like a magnet: the price often returns to 'fill' this gap.
3. MSS (Market Structure Shift) signaling a potential market reversal.
If you're shorting this daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) without confirmation of a reversal, the optimal stop loss should be placed above the second candlestick that creates the gap, and the take profit should be set at the next swing low.
Open short: 81.000 and above Stop loss: 84.250 Take profit: 59.000. Risk/Reward Ratio: 6.7
✔ $BTC has hit the level 81.100, typical for the ABC zigzag, where A=C.
At 81.000, there are several reversal levels converging. The plan is simple - if we see a red daily candlestick, ideally an engulfing pattern, then we can go short after it breaks the last low at 59.850.
🙄 Similar Fair Value Gap (FVG) at $BTC on the monthly TF. The high of the previous month has been broken, stop losses taken out, so we might see a drop.
🧐 Remember how $BTC back in January 2026, the price barely missed the weekly MA50 by a couple of percent and flipped early?
The Fair Value Gap (FVG), or 'imbalance', on the daily timeframe acted as resistance, pushing the price down early.
🤔 I think if we see a reaction to the current FVG tomorrow in the form of a red daily candlestick, we might want to consider opening a medium-term short the day after.
🙄 Behind the blue lines at $BTC , there are liquidity zones where the main stop losses are located - below 75.600 for long positions and above 79.000 for short positions. If we look at the price from the perspective of movement between liquidity zones, some interesting observations emerge.
The price has retraced back under 79.000. The divergence will play out as the price drops into oversold territory on the 4h timeframe. Let's see how this daily candlestick closes.
🙄If this is liquidity grab above 79,000 before the drop, then the price will retrace back under 79,000 by the end of today or tomorrow with a daily candlestick. After that, we'll break out of the channel and enter a new phase of shorts. On the indicators, this will show up as three peaks of divergence.
But if the price breaks and holds above this level, can we talk about a reversal? And is that even realistic?🤔
🧐 Overbought on the 2D timeframe - during the long-term downtrend (2018, 2022) this rare state $BTC occurs only a few times. It has always led to a significant drop with a return to oversold conditions.
There's a good chance that May will see a downtrend, bringing prices back to the weekly MA200.
🧐 Price $BTC just made a small breakout at 79.450, which allows us to reassemble the zigzag pattern at the end of the rally into a final diagonal - the 5th wave of the impulse.
The end of the uptrend is already near. This rise resembles an impulse in wave C of the ABC zigzag. And the low volume zone could indicate a reversal.
We're waiting for a breakout from the channel - a sign that the impulse is fully formed.