阿简在路上

Tonight (September 22) at 11:00 Beijing time is the activation time for the Helicon mainnet. A-Jian previously broke this down in detail, and $AVAX has already been pumped for a round ahead of this upgrade. So if you’re verifying or delegating, you can check two specific things tonight: whether the mainnet is getting stuck, and whether validators are going offline in large numbers. If you’re just a trader, tonight’s upgrade likely won’t create any buy/sell entry points.

Still A-Jian mini tips:
If you hold $HYPE , you need to know that Hyperliquid’s OI has reached about $10B. Sanctions and compliance pressure have been steadily increasing. Be sure to regularly check regional and account risk-control rules—it's tedious, but very useful. Also, one important thing when doing HYPE is to plan your unlock pressure budget: compare the unlock amount with real buybacks, burns, and ETF inflows. You can spot more signals from that.

If you’re planning to do $ZEC , in the current environment where both price is up and OI is high, it’s recommended to first reduce your position to a level that can withstand 20%–30% volatility. For such strong privacy coins, drawdowns can be much larger than BTC’s. At any time, don’t open a position so large that you can’t sleep.

$SOL Yesterday spot ETF net inflows were about $26M, and total AUM has reached $1.74B. Taking into account Solana fees, rent reform, and AI agents, the road for SOL is getting wider and wider—it’s no longer just limited to the memecoin narrative, but is gradually becoming a high-throughput application platform where comprehensive trading can be carried out. The only hope is that the increasing amount of narrative won’t cause the valuation to be overdrawn prematurely

Still bullish on a day for $ETH ; judging from the ETF inflows and BitMine’s buying activity, the institutional allocation for ETH is clearly stronger than the previous round. Of course, leverage is also thicker than before. Above $2.7K, it will be easier to see profit-taking positions, but in this wave, Ajian can still see $3K

From today’s early trading session, Asian stocks have clearly strengthened, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up more than 1%. Stocks in Korea, Taiwan, and China’s tech sector are all rising as well. The reasons behind it are also simple: oil prices are down, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, a China-U.S. summit is approaching, Iran and the U.S. may resume negotiations, AI sentiment has picked up again, and more. These “A-sans” have already done breakdowns of all these before. Personally, the most worth focusing on is this: the market was still trading the war, oil prices, and rate hikes last week—so why today has it suddenly started pricing in AI and risk assets again? It looks like the market is re-pricing the worst-case scenario downward.

$BTC Yesterday once broke through $87K, with an intraday gain of nearly 7.7%; spot ETF net inflows of about $617.6M; liquidations of about $1.22B, including about $1.07B for shorts. Crypto total market cap has returned to around $2.8T, the highest since late January. That suggests this rally is driven by at least three forces: real ETF buy orders, shorts being forced to cover, and a broad rebound in risk assets.

A-jian believes a big reason for this move is that after the price broke through the top of the September range box, it hit a very dense liquidation band for shorts, forcing short-sellers to unwind and push the price another leg higher. So this looks more like a mechanism-driven rally. And once the shorts are cleared, the market then needs new spot buyers to keep the flow going; if the price keeps trading sideways for a few days, funding rates, time value, and drawdowns start to get charged.

As for the overall rebound in risk assets, it’s mainly because oil prices have pulled back, expectations for U.S.-China diplomacy have improved, and crypto’s own regulation and tokenization logic continue to strengthen. Putting it all together, macro pressure has only temporarily eased—there hasn’t been a key signal for a full-blown bull trend #比特币突破8.5万美元

Over the past few days, A-Jian has been seeing a lot of content on Chinese platforms like Twitter, Douyin, Xiaohongshu, Zhihu, and others that revolves around two themes: reframing the failure of a clear bill as an encrypted apocalypse, and turning the SEC exemption into an encrypted milestone. It’s like the left and right brains are fighting each other.

Basically no Chinese KOLs can summarize these two things in a single sentence: the United States is entering a window period with no new laws, but new regulations.

Not many Chinese KOLs mention that within this window period you can still keep launching products, but you can’t guarantee legal status—and they also don’t spell out the OIRA review and the Sept 2031 expiration date of the five-year exemption. This information gap accumulates little by little like that. DYOR

For the AI+Crypto space, regular traders should not worry about what large models and computing power there are. The conditional license OCC gave Catena this time is clearly meant for AI agents to handle account setup, payments, and fund permissions. This is a long-term positive. $NEAR is the first to be impacted; you can watch whether a batch of AI coins like $TAO , $WLD , etc. can keep up.

Just saw Ava Labs release a message saying that parties related to the New York Stock Exchange plan to test Avalanche-based tokenized securities infrastructure over about a year. Even though there are no results yet, with such a major catalyst—plus the upcoming Helicon upgrade on September 22—$AVAX still saw double-digit gains, and that’s a good sign.

RWA has talked about it for two years, but what was missing was concrete testing by traditional exchanges on a specific chain. Now that’s finally happening. Even though there are still clearance, legal, custody, and failure contingencies in between—and even if AVAX ultimately doesn’t become the NYSE’s underlying infrastructure—prices have already moved first. Trading volume says it all. It’s the same logic as $NEAR and $UNI getting a major boost due to a confidentiality contract and tokenization exemptions.

#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC That old guy is out again throwing smoke bombs, but is this really good news? In the past three months, the listed companies collectively only increased their holdings by about 5,900 units of $BTC . You have to know that in the same period a year ago, the number was over 100,000, and recently, of those 5,900 units, 4,603 came from the Strategy buy-in around the end of August. Times have changed, folks. In the narrative of the past couple of years, the treasury strategy was treated as a perpetual bid; now the protagonist has shifted to ETF creations, derivatives short-covering, and steady inflows of stablecoins from retail.

So Ajian no longer recommends that you friends still use $MSTRB as a barometer of market sentiment, or treat MSTR’s weekly report as the whole demand story behind the “big pie.” It’s not that it has no meaning—but they also have to make money and eat. Don’t mythologize them.

After the Asian session opened on Monday, oil prices finally started to fall. Brent crude—$BZ —dipped briefly to around $100. That’s a good start to the week, for sure. Of course, the reason for this downturn isn’t that peace suddenly broke out in the Middle East. It’s because Saudi oil exports have begun to recover, and some key pipelines are also attempting to resume shipments. So the market is now trading whether actual supply is a bit better than the worst-case scenario—whether there will be more temporary dispatches and alternative routes.

On the other hand, CBA estimates that if the current supply disruptions continue, global crude and refined oil inventories may have only about a 5–10 week buffer. Two weeks ago, that figure was 15–20 weeks. So the near-term decline in oil prices doesn’t mean the energy risk is over. The rate at which global oil inventories are being drawn down may be accelerating.

This week has seen a flurry of macro events: the Fed hiking rates, the BOJ hiking rates, 10Y yields breaking above 5%, escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and more—basically, most of what needed to happen has already happened. For Jian right now, the one thing most worth watching next week is the China-U.S. leaders meeting on the 24th. The publicly stated agenda includes trade, Taiwan, the Iran war, AI governance, critical minerals, and a tariff truce, among other items. Of course, for traders like us, the most practical things to watch are three very real issues:

Is there room for tariffs to keep escalating?

Will the supply of critical minerals improve?

Will restrictions on AI and chips ease further?

These questions may still seem macro in nature, but in the end they all come down to business costs, supply chains, and capital expenditures—and ultimately filter through to $BTC and the entire Crypto. So I’ll treat this meeting as a cost variable, not just a piece of geopolitics news

Switchboard has officially announced it will stop providing service on September 25, and users need to migrate to Pyth or RedStone. The underlying dependencies of this kind of DeFi protocol may be more extensive than many people think—it affects not only the price of $SWTCH , but also infrastructure lifecycle issues. If you are a token holder, it’s recommended that you find the official migration documentation now, confirm the replacement oracle, pause opening new positions, check authorizations and borrowing positions, and test with small amounts—don’t wait until after the service stops to handle it.

Fools have it every year, and bull markets are especially plentiful. A batch of fake AI arbitrage bot tutorials promoted through YouTube videos trick users into deploying malicious contracts, causing 224 victims to lose approximately 274.6 ETH in just a short time. The absolute numbers may not seem huge, but with AI Agent trading narratives hot right now, this is exactly when scammers can slip in easily. For most regular traders with smaller principal, the most dangerous thing isn’t that the AI you use isn’t smart enough—it’s that you hand your wallet permissions directly to code you can’t even understand.

AJian Little Tip: When using AI + Crypto products, you must have a separate wallet, small spending limits, manual signing, a whitelist, transaction logs, and a revocation/authorization-cancel flow. Above all, don’t directly copy so-called tutorials, don’t test unknown bots in your main wallet, and don’t grant unlimited approve.

From A Jian’s personal experience, this round of “bullish” market rise is actually the most confusing one. A large number of friends hesitate at this kind of moment about whether to get on board. Because leverage most easily makes the price action look stronger than the real underlying demand. A big batch of people will first fail in their judgment of the buy-side order book structure, and then—because they also misjudge supply and absorption—pay another round of tuition.

Including coins such as $XRP , $HYPE , and $ZEC , the specific reasons behind the upswings of major coins were already broken down by A Jian yesterday. Some are driven by ETFs, some by whales, some by short-term leverage, some by buyback/repurchase expectations, and some are simply that supply hasn’t been dumped into the market for the time being. Multiple factors working together makes the rally both stronger and more confusing. So I hope all you friends, when you turn bullish in this wave, first understand exactly which kind of “rally” you are buying into.

Spot? ETF? Agreement/contract revenue? Or leverage? The hotter the market gets, the more active both buyers and sellers become. And the more you must not be taken out early just because you were right on direction but your position is too oversized.

Ajian Quick Tip: Today, $BTC, $ETH, $SOL , $ZEC, and $HYPE are all moving upward, but their driving forces are completely different. Ordinary traders should pay more attention to which asset is taking over the liquidity:
BTC is driven by ETFs and macro factors;
ETH is driven by ETFs, staking, and DeFi;
SOL is driven by on-chain trading;
ZEC is driven by ETFs, privacy, and high leverage;
HYPE is driven by platform revenue and buybacks

Oh, another independent L1 has fallen. ZetaChain is now proposing to gradually shut down its independent L1 and migrate to Solana. The plan is to convert $ZETA to a Solana SPL token on a 1:1 basis. A-Jian still really agrees with this kind of choice—being independent not for independence itself. Maintaining your own L1 is indeed very costly. If there aren’t enough users, developers, and liquidity, migrating to a more active ecosystem is the rational choice.

If you hold ZETA, go check the conversion snapshot, redemption time, wallet support, and dApp migration now—don’t wait until the last day to act.

Polygon is planning to deploy destruction contracts that do not require a license, and destroy 100M $POL in the first round, accounting for 1% of the supply. If we also consider Polygon’s disclosed 2026 revenue of about $24.5M, A Jian believes this round of reforms combining revenue + burn should bring a positive boost. We can watch whether subsequent revenue is sufficient to remain sustainable, and whether new issuance and incentives will offset the burn

Hyperliquid has publicly disclosed buyback and burn mechanisms multiple times before. Judging from the recent performance of $HYPE , the market is also starting to link platform revenue to token valuation. A Jian believes that HYPE is currently at a key transition point—gradually evolving from a simple platform token into a composite asset of protocol cash flow + buybacks + high liquidity.

The buyback logic is already in place. The biggest risk now is whether trading volume and revenue can continue to be maintained. I will keep monitoring whether funding becomes more expensive when the price rises

A giant whale moved $ZEC worth $362.5M last night, and also deposited about $15M into Coinbase. This was its first deposit to an exchange in 10 months. Since the start of 2025, this address’s paper profit has reached about $361M. In other words, those more than $300M were almost pure gains 🤷🤷🤷

Bias aside, it can’t be denied that after ZEC’s big earlier rally, potential selling pressure represented by whales like this has already started to emerge. The more the narratives driving ZEC’s price up — privacy, ETFs, and mining — continue to build, the stronger the incentive for early holders to cash out becomes. As for which side is ultimately more attractive, what do you all think about this wave?