Cointelegraph

BitMine Immersion Technologies, the world’s largest corporate Ether holder, continues buying the dip, despite the industry’s most successful traders betting on Ethereum's price fall.

BitMine acquired $199 million worth of Ether (ETH) during the past two days, through a $68 million ETH acquisition on Saturday and another $130.7 million buy on Friday, according to blockchain data platform Lookonchain.

With the latest investments, BitMine now holds $11.3 billion, or 3.08%, of the total Ether supply, closing in on its 5% accumulation target, according to data from the StrategicEthReserve.

BitMine’s continued accumulations are a strong sign of conviction in Ether's long-term growth potential. The company holds an additional $882 million in cash reserves, which may be used for more Ether accumulation.

Largest corporate Ether holders. Source: Strategicethreserve.xyz

Related: Ethereum ICO whale cashes out $60M after 9,500x gain as top 1% keep buying ETH

BitMine’s investment comes amid a significant slowdown in digital asset treasury (DAT) activity, which saw corporate Ether acquisitions fall 81% in three months, from 1.97 million Ether in August to 370,000 in net ETH acquired in November.

Despite the slowdown, BitMine accumulated the lion’s share, or 679,000 Ether worth $2.13 billion during the past month.

Related: Bitcoin now settles Visa-scale volumes, but most is for wholesale, not coffee

Smart money traders are betting on Ether’s price decline

The crypto industry’s best-performing traders by returns, who are tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, are betting on the short-term depreciation of Ether’s price.

Smart money traders top perpetual futures positions on Hyperliquid. Source: Nansen

Smart money traders added $2.8 million in short positions over the past 24 hours, as the cohort was net short on Ether, with a cumulative short position of $21 million, according to Nansen.

Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a significant driver of liquidity for Ether, also continue to lack demand. 

Ethereum ETF Flow USD, in million. Source: Farside Investors

The spot Ether ETFs recorded $75.2 million in net positive outflows for the second consecutive day on Friday, following the $1.4 billion in monthly outflows in November, according to Farside Investors.

Magazine: Sharplink exec shocked by level of BTC and ETH ETF hodling — Joseph Chalom

The European Commission’s proposal to expand the powers of the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is raising concerns about the centralization of the bloc’s licensing regime, despite signaling deeper institutional ambitions for its capital markets structure.

On Thursday, the Commission published a package proposing to “direct supervisory competences” for key pieces of market infrastructure, including crypto-asset service providers (CASPs), trading venues and central counterparties to ESMA, Cointelegraph reported.

Concerningly, the ESMA’s jurisdiction would extend to both the supervision and licensing of all European crypto and financial technology (fintech) firms, potentially leading to slower licensing regimes and hindering startup development, according to Faustine Fleuret, head of public affairs at decentralized lending protocol Morpho.

“I am even more concerned that the proposal makes ESMA responsible for both the authorisation and the supervision of CASPs, not only the supervision,” she told Cointelegraph.

The proposal still requires approval from the European Parliament and the Council, which are currently under negotiation. 

If adopted, ESMA’s role in overseeing EU capital markets would more closely resemble the centralized framework of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, a concept first proposed by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in 2023.

Related: Bank of America backs 1%–4% crypto allocation, opens door to Bitcoin ETFs

EU plan to centralize licensing under ESMA creates crypto and fintech slowdown concerns

The proposal to “centralize” this oversight under a single regulatory body seeks to address the differences in national supervisory practices and uneven licensing regimes, but risks slowing down overall crypto industry development, Elisenda Fabrega, general counsel at Brickken asset tokenization platform, told Cointelegraph.

"Without adequate resources, this mandate may become unmanageable, leading to delays or overly cautious assessments that could disproportionately affect smaller or innovative firms."

“Ultimately, the effectiveness of this reform will depend less on its legal form and more on its institutional execution,” including ESMA’s operational capacity, independence and cooperation “channels” with member states, she said.

Global stock market value by country. Source: Visual Capitalist

The broader package aims to boost wealth creation for EU citizens by making the bloc’s capital markets more competitive with those of the US.

The US stock market is worth approximately $62 trillion, or 48% of the global equity market, while the EU stock market’s cumulative value sits around $11 trillion, representing 9% of the global share, according to data from Visual Capitalist.

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Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a “complete reset” of sell pressure after dropping below $90,000, says new research.

Key points:

Bitcoin long-term holders have reset their selling habits as BTC price action returns below $90,000.

A derivative of the popular SOPR metric is now tapping its lowest levels since early 2024.

Recent price moves have resulted in some classic knee-jerk trading decisions by short-term holders.

Bitcoin SOPR “Ratio” hits key 1.35 level

In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts Saturday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant eyed two-year lows in a key Bitcoin hodl metric.

Bitcoin long-term holders (STHs) have effectively abandoned their BTC sales after BTC/USD fell to its lowest levels since April.

CryptoQuant reveals a major shift in the profitability of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) created by the LTH cohort versus their speculative counterparts, short-term holders (STHs).

The labels “LTH” and “STH” refer to wallets hodling a given amount of BTC for more than or less than 155 days, respectively. 

Using an iteration of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures the proportion of UTXOs in profit and loss, CryptoQuant confirms that it is now STHs responsible for the majority of in-profit transactions.

“The Bitcoin SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR) has dropped to 1.35, marking its lowest level since the beginning of 2024. This decline coincides with Bitcoin’s price correction to the $89.7K level,” contributor CryptoOnchain summarized.

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR (14-period simple moving average). Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoOnchain drew two key conclusions from the SOPR data: the “end of heavy distribution” by LTHs and a “market cool-down” taking effect instead.

“The drop suggests a massive ‘reset’ in the market,” the post continued. 

“The speculative froth that drove the ratio to highs earlier in the cycle has been flushed out.”

Speculators confused by BTC price moves

Bitcoin speculators have reacted erratically to recent BTC price action, as seen through the lens of their overall exposure.

The net position change of the STH cohort on a rolling 30-day basis saw a large upward spike on Nov. 24, CryptoQuant shows.

The 30-day rolling tally then flipped negative on Dec. 1, as BTC/USD saw another drawdown around the December monthly open.

Bitcoin STH 30-day rolling net position change. Source: CryptoQuant

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin's ‘Santa’ rally may be ignited by macroeconomic tailwinds, including the Federal Reserve’s incoming interest rate decision, but fearful investor sentiment may take another hit by any hawkish remarks from central bank officials.

Improving liquidity conditions and rising odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut may catalyze a recovery in the crypto market during December, according to Coinbase Institutional.

“We think crypto could be poised for a December recovery as liquidity improves, Fed cut odds jump to 92% (as of Dec 4), and macro tailwinds build,” wrote Coinbase in a Friday research report.

In October, Coinbase predicted “weakness” in the crypto market ahead of a “December reversal,” based on its custom global M2 money supply index, which measures the total outstanding fiat currency supply.

Source: Coinbase Institutional

Still, market sentiment remains “dominated” by fear, as institutional and retail capital remain “hesitant to step in,” leaving markets in limbo ahead of a recovery in exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, Coinbase said.

Related: Bitcoin treads water at $90K as whales eat the Ethereum dip: Finance Redefined

Fed interest rate cut decisive for Bitcoin’s momentum in early 2026

Market analysts also flagged the possibility of a “Santa rally” following the Fed’s rate cut — a market pattern in which assets see short-term gains around Christmas.

Bitcoin's (BTC) prospects for the first quarter of 2026 may hinge more on the remarks of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, according to Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau educational platform. He told Cointelegraph:

"If the Fed cuts rates on December 10th, along with ending QT, there's little standing in the way of a Santa rally for Bitcoin - bar any major geopolitical bombshell.”

“However, investors will scrutinise Jerome Powell’s every word during the press conference to get a glimpse into 2026 monetary policy, and any hawkishness could put a lid on the rally,” he said.

Related: Cantor slashes Strategy target by 60%, tells clients forced-sale fears are overblown

Other analysts attributed Bitcoin's November sell pressure to Powell’s previous hawkish remarks, but expect a recovery in December. They include Chris Kim, co-founder and CEO of Axis, an onchain quantitative trading fund managing $100 million in live capital.

“Overall, we’re leaning toward a recovery,” as the “biggest driver right now is macro,” Kim told Cointelegraph, adding:

“From a technical perspective, the market has already retested the ~$80k region and the 100-week average. We’re also seeing incremental positives such as Vanguard allowing ETF trading.”

Another fundamental driver for crypto assets is growing speculation that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett will be appointed the next Federal Reserve Chair in early 2026, a move that would usher in a “notably more dovish” policy stance, according to Kim.

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On Thursday, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) products will begin trading for the first time on its registered futures exchanges.

Here are three reasons why this is a big deal for the top two cryptocurrencies heading into 2026.

Key takeaways:

CFTC oversight gives BTC and ETH gold-like legitimacy, opening the door to larger institutional flows.

Regulated US trading boosts liquidity, cuts volatility, and shifts crypto activity back onshore.

Bitcoin and Ethereum can scale like gold

One of the strongest historical parallels for the CFTC decision came from the gold market.

When gold was formally opened to trading on regulated US futures exchanges in the 1970s, the shift transformed it from a fragmented, over-the-counter commodity into a globally recognized investment asset.

Liquidity concentrated on COMEX, institutions entered for the first time, and transparent price discovery created a foundation for long-term capital flows.

Since its COMEX debut, spot gold prices gained 4,000%, illustrating how regulatory clarity can reshape an asset’s market trajectory.

XAU/USD yearly performance chart. Source: TradingView

The CFTC placed Bitcoin and Ethereum under a similar commodity framework with its latest announcement, thus removing the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) issuer-focused requirements.

It also filled a long-standing gap: US traders could access crypto on platforms like Coinbase and Kraken but lacked regulated spot leverage, deep liquidity tools, or exchange-level protections.

That absence forced liquidity offshore, with recent 2025 data showing Binance capturing roughly 41.1% of global spot activity, far ahead of US-based venues.

With regulated spot markets now approved domestically, Bitcoin and Ethereum gain the same structural foundation that helped gold evolve from a niche hedge into a mature, globally traded asset class.

Source: X

CFTC improves institutional exposure for BTC, ETH

Pension funds, banks, and hedge funds that previously sat on the sidelines can now treat Bitcoin and Ethereum like other CFTC-recognized commodities, with standardized rules, surveillance, and custody requirements.

86% of institutional investors already have or plan to gain crypto exposure, and most increased their allocations in 2024 as US regulation improved, according to a joint survey conducted by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon in January.

Source: X

A majority also preferred accessing crypto through regulated investment rails, such as commodity exchanges or ETFs, rather than offshore venues.

Following the CFTC decision, institutions can now access Bitcoin and Ethereum through regulated exchanges, audited custody, and supervised pricing, setting the stage for stronger, more durable mainstream adoption.

Bitcoin, Ether may see better liquidity growth

Historical evidence suggested that commodities expanded rapidly after debuting on regulated trading venues.

A case in point is the launch of WTI oil futures in 1983, whose trading exploded from just 3,000 contracts in the first month to over 100,000 per month within a year, and then to over 2 million contracts per month by the late 1980s.

WTI two-week chart. Source: TradingView

Today, WTI often exceeds a million contracts in daily volume, a testament to how regulation can foster colossal market growth.

Bitcoin and Ethereum can witness a similar liquidity boost, with CFTC-approved spot trading likely to attract many more US traders and market makers, thus increasing order book depth and reducing spreads.

Deep liquidity and robust volume on US soil can also reduce volatility over time, as large buy or sell orders are more easily absorbed.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Western Union has unveiled plans to introduce a new “stable card” to protect users in high-inflation economies as part of its stablecoin strategy.

Speaking at the UBS Global Technology and AI conference, chief financial officer Matthew Cagwin said the initiative builds on the company’s investor-day reveal that it is moving beyond traditional cross-border payments and into a multi-pillar digital asset roadmap.

Cagwin pointed to Argentina, where annual inflation recently hit 250–300%, noting that remittances can lose nearly half their value in a month. “Imagine a world where your family in the US is sending you $500 home, but by the time you spend it in the next month, it's only worth $300,” he said.

“We can see a good utility for our stable card there, which is an increment to our prepaid card we have today here in the US,” he added.

Related: Crypto Biz: Corporate stablecoin race heats up with Citi, Western Union at the helm

Western Union to issue a coin

Cagwin also revealed Western Union’s intention to issue its own coin. He said the company believes its distribution footprint across 200 countries gives it a natural advantage, especially in emerging markets where remittances form a significant share of GDP.

“We think that we can make a market for our coin in those markets. And we wanted to be able to control the economics, control the compliance and control the overall distribution, and we think we can grow that beyond that,” he said.

Another major part of the company’s digital asset strategy is its Digital Asset Network, or DAN, which links Western Union to four on-ramp and off-ramp providers. The platform is expected to go live in the first half of 2025.

Related: Money giant Western Union to pilot stablecoin-powered transfers

Western Union picks Solana for its stablecoin

As Cointelegrpah reported, Western Union has confirmed that its upcoming stablecoin settlement system will be built on the Solana (SOL) blockchain. The system will center on the US Dollar Payment Token (USDPT) and a new Digital Asset Network developed with Anchorage Digital Bank. USDPT is slated to launch in the first half of 2026, with distribution through partner exchanges.

Western Union has also filed a trademark application for “WUUSD,” signaling plans for a suite of crypto services, including a wallet, trading features and stablecoin payment processing. The filing has been accepted but not yet assigned to an examiner.

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Clear Street, a New York brokerage that has become one of the most active underwriters in the crypto-treasury boom, is preparing to go public with an expected valuation of $10 billion to $12 billion.

The IPO could come as early as next month, with Goldman Sachs lined up to lead the offering, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter. One source reportedly told the FT that the deal is unlikely to price before January.

Founded in 2018, Clear Street rose to prominence as dozens of public companies began adopting the “crypto treasury” playbook, raising capital through equity or debt markets and using the proceeds to buy large quantities of Bitcoin (BTC). The strategy was popularized by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which has accumulated 650,000 BTC through multiple stock and convertible offerings underwritten in part by Clear Street.

The firm also served as an underwriter for Trump Media and Technology Group, which has signaled plans to raise billions to establish a Bitcoin treasury operation of its own.

According to its website, Clear Street has underwritten about $91 billion in combined equity, debt and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transactions so far this year, including deals for well-known crypto advocates Anthony Pompliano and former US presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

Clear Street’s key performance metrics. Source: Clear Street website

Related: HashKey edges toward Hong Kong listing while China chills stablecoin plans

Crypto treasury model shows strain

However, Clear Street’s IPO ambitions come at a moment when the crypto-treasury model that fueled its ascent is showing signs of strain. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 30% since early October, while Strategy’s share price has dropped 60% over the past six months.

Many smaller crypto treasury firms now trade at discounts to the value of the tokens they hold, cutting off their ability to issue new stock to buy more BTC, the same mechanism that powered the model during the bull run.

In a recent report, Galaxy Research said that Bitcoin treasury companies are entering a “Darwinian phase” as the core mechanics of their once-booming business model break down.

“For treasury companies whose equities had been serving as leveraged crypto trades, the shift has been intense,” Galaxy said, adding that the “same financial engineering that amplified upside has magnified downside.”

Related: Revolut hits $75B valuation following share sale, global push

Crypto companies rush to go public

According to the FT, roughly 316 companies have been listed in the US this year, raising around $63 billion, the highest total since 2021.

Last month, crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments filed an S-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange, joining a growing wave of crypto companies going public this year.

In September, crypto custody firm BitGo also filed for a US listing. During the same month, Gemini, run by the Winklevoss twins, made its Nasdaq debut, about three weeks after submitting its Form S-1 to the SEC.

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Bitcoin treasury companies are entering a “Darwinian phase” as the core mechanics of their once-booming business model break down, according to a new analysis from Galaxy Research.

The report said that the digital asset treasury (DAT) trade has reached its natural limit as equity prices fell below Bitcoin (BTC) net asset value (NAV), causing the issuance-driven growth loop to reverse and turning leverage into a liability.

That breaking point arrived as Bitcoin dropped from its October peak near $126,000 to lows around $80,000, triggering a sharp contraction in risk appetite and draining liquidity across the market. The October 10 deleveraging event accelerated the shift, wiping out open interest across futures markets and weakening spot depth.

“For treasury companies whose equities had been serving as leveraged crypto trades, the shift has been intense,” Galaxy said, adding that the “same financial engineering that amplified upside has magnified downside.”

Related: Cantor slashes Strategy target by 60%, tells clients forced-sale fears are overblown

DAT stocks flip to discounts

DAT stocks that traded at rich premiums to NAV over the summer are now mostly at discounts, even as Bitcoin itself is down only around 30% from highs. Companies such as Metaplanet and Nakamoto, which previously showed hundreds of millions in unrealized gains, are now deep in the red as average BTC purchase prices sit above $107,000.

Galaxy noted that the leverage embedded in these firms is exposing them to extreme downside, with one firm, NAKA, plunging more than 98% from its peak. “This price action resembles the kind of wipeouts seen in memecoin markets,” the firm wrote.

Metaplanet’s unrealized PnL reaches $530 million. Source: Galaxy

With issuance no longer available, Galaxy outlined three possible paths from here. The base case is a prolonged period of compressed premiums, during which BTC-per-share growth stagnates and DAT equities offer more downside than Bitcoin itself.

A second outcome is consolidation, when firms that issued heavily at high premiums, bought BTC near the top, or loaded up on debt, face solvency pressure and may be acquired or restructured. A third scenario leaves room for recovery if Bitcoin eventually reaches new all-time highs, but only for companies that preserved liquidity and avoided over-issuing during the boom.

Related: Can the biggest Bitcoin whales really decide when the market turns green or red?

Strategy raises $1.44 billion to quell dividend fears

On Friday, Strategy CEO Phong Le said the company’s new $1.44 billion cash reserve was created to calm investor anxiety over its ability to meet dividend and debt obligations during Bitcoin’s downturn. Funded through a stock sale, the reserve is designed to secure at least 12 months of dividend payments, with plans to extend that buffer to 24 months.

Meanwhile, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan has said that Strategy won’t be forced to sell Bitcoin to stay afloat if its share price drops, and those who say otherwise are “just flat wrong.”

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Two long-dormant Casascius coins — each backed by 1,000 Bitcoin — have just been activated as of Friday, unlocking more than $179 million stashed away for more than 13 years. 

Onchain data indicates that one of the Casascius coins was minted in October 2012, when Bitcoin was trading for $11.69. 

The other was minted earlier in December 2011, when Bitcoin was valued at only $3.88, giving that Casascius coin a theoretical return of about 2.3 million percent, not including the cost of minting. 

A little history behind Casascius coins

Casacius coins are physical metal coins or bars created by Utah-based entrepreneur Mike Caldwell, which were minted between 2011 and 2013.

Caldwell would take Bitcoin and mint it into physical coins, and they are considered one of the most sought-after physical collectibles related to Bitcoin. 

Source: Sani

Each Casacius coin contains an embedded piece of paper with a digital Bitcoin value and is covered in a tamper-resistant hologram. The coins and bars ranged from 1, 5, 10, 25, 100, 500 and 1,000 BTC denominations. 

However, Caldwell suspended his business after receiving a letter from FinCEN, over concerns that he may have been operating a money transmitter business without a license. 

How do Casacius coins work

Only 16 of the 1,000 BTC bars and 6 of the 1,000 BTC coins were ever made, according to some records. 

The first person to redeem the private key by lifting the holographic sticker will receive the full value of the coin; after this, the coin will no longer have any Bitcoin value. 

However, redeeming a Casascius coin for its equivalent in Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily mean that a bunch of Bitcoin is about to flood the market. 

In July, a 100 Bitcoin Casascius coin owner, “John Galt,” who had moved his stash from a physical coin to a hardware wallet, told Cointelegraph that he did so because his funds would be more easily accessible. He had no immediate plans to cash out. 

“Having 100 BTC is life-changing for anyone. But the thing is, I’ve had it for so long that this was more about staying safe than suddenly getting rich,” he said. 

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Nasdaq-listed Strive, the 14th-largest publicly-listed Bitcoin treasury firm, has urged MSCI to reconsider its proposed exclusion of major Bitcoin holding companies from its indexes. 

In a letter to MSCI’s chairman and CEO, Henry Fernandez, Strive argued that excluding companies whose digital asset holdings comprise more than 50% of total assets would reduce passive investors’ exposure to growth sectors and would fail to capture companies it intends to.

Losing a spot in MSCI indexes could be a significant blow to digital asset treasury firms. JPMorgan analysts had earlier warned that Strategy, a Bitcoin treasury firm listed in the MSCI World Index, could lose $2.8 billion if MSCI moves ahead with the proposal. 

Strategy chair Michael Saylor has since stated that the company is in communication with the index provider regarding the issue. 

Large Bitcoin holders are at the forefront of AI: Strive CEO

Strive CEO Matt Cole argued that major Bitcoin miners such as MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms and Hut 8 — all potential firms in the exclusion list — are rapidly diversifying their data centers to provide power and infrastructure for AI computing. 

Source: Matt Cole

“Many analysts argue that the AI race is increasingly limited by access to power, not semiconductors. Bitcoin miners are ideally positioned to meet this rising demand,” he said. 

“But even as AI revenue comes in, their Bitcoin will remain, and your exclusion would too, curtailing client participation in the fastest-growing part of the global economy.”

Bitcoin structured finance is growing

The exclusion would also cut off companies like Strategy and Metaplanet, which offer investors a similar product to a variety of structured notes linked to Bitcoin’s returns from the likes of JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, argued Cole. 

“Bitcoin structured finance is as real a business for us as it is for JPMorgan. In fact, we, like other Bitcoin companies, have been open about our intent to make this our core vertical. It would be asymmetric for us to compete against traditional financiers, weighed down by a higher cost of capital from passive index providers’ penalties on the very Bitcoin enabling our offerings.”

A 50% Bitcoin threshold is unworkable

Cole said the proposal is unlikely to be workable in practice, as tying the inclusion of the index to a volatile asset would mean companies would “flicker” in and out of the index, raising management costs and tracking errors. 

There’s also the issue of measuring when digital asset holdings reach 50% as companies gain exposure to digital assets through various instruments. 

Related: Strategy’s Michael Saylor on potential MSCI exclusion: ‘We’re engaging’

“The question is not theoretical. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., holder of the tenth-largest public Bitcoin treasury, did not appear on your preliminary exclusion list because its spot holdings comprised just under 50% of total assets,” said Cole.

“Yet Trump Media is not there simply because it is the first large treasury to seek substantial digital asset exposure through derivatives and ETFs.” 

Instead of a broad-stroke exclusion, Strive has urged the MSCI to consider creating an “ex-digital asset treasury” version for its existing indexes. 

“Asset owners that wish to avoid these companies could select those benchmarks, while others could continue to use the standard indices that most closely represent the full investable equity universe.”

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Strategy CEO Phong Le said part of the reason for establishing a $1.44 billion USD reserve was to alleviate investor concerns over the company’s health amid a Bitcoin slump. 

“We’re very much are a part of the crypto ecosystem and Bitcoin ecosystem. Which is why we decided a couple of weeks ago to start raising capital and putting US dollars on our balance sheet to get rid of this FUD,” said Le during CNBC’s Power Lunch on Friday.

This afternoon, Phong Le, CEO of @Strategy, joined @CNBC @PowerLunch to discuss how $MSTR moves with bitcoin, how our USD reserve addresses recent FUD, the shifting Overton Window, key volatility drivers, and why bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains strong. pic.twitter.com/1t5hsfov0m

— Strategy (@Strategy) December 5, 2025

On Monday, Strategy announced the $1.44 billion US dollar reserve, funded through a stock sale. The reserve is intended to maintain an amount sufficient to cover at least 12 months of dividends, and will eventually expand to cover a runway of 24 months, the firm said.

The new raise came amid concerns over whether Strategy could continue to service its debts and dividend payment obligations should the stock price fall too far.

“And it’s really this FUD,” Le said on Friday. 

“We weren’t going to have an issue to be able to pay our dividends, and we weren’t likely going to have to tap into selling our Bitcoin, but… There was FUD that was put out there that we wouldn’t be able to meet our dividend obligations, which causes people to pile into a short Bitcoin bet,” he said. 

“We just addressed that in eight and a half days we raised $1.44 billion —  21 months’ worth of dividend obligations, and we did it 1) to address the FUD, but 2) to show people that we’re still able to raise money in a Bitcoin downcycle.”

Related: Cantor slashes Strategy target by 60%, tells clients forced-sale fears are overblown

Last week, Le said that Strategy would only consider selling Bitcoin if its stock fell below net asset value and the company no longer had access to fresh capital. 

The company also launched a “BTC Credit” dashboard, which claims it currently has enough assets to service dividends for more than 70 years.

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term trend may hinge on developments unfolding inside Binance’s order flow and onchain activity. Three Binance-linked metrics indicated rising sell-side pressure, shifting liquidity behavior, and a market preparing for volatility, factors that could determine whether BTC holds support or enters a deeper correction.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin whale deposits into exchanges are rising, signaling elevated profit-taking risk.

BTC inflows to Binance have matched 2025 highs, which have historically preceded longer pullbacks.

USDT deposits on Binance reached yearly highs, indicating that traders are repositioning themselves ahead of potential volatility.

BTC Whale ratio rebound warns of distribution pressure

A sharp rise in the Exchange Whale Ratio, now at 0.47 across all exchanges, indicated that large holders are increasingly moving Bitcoin into trading platforms. This trend becomes more concerning on Binance, where the ratio’s 14-day exponential moving average (EMA) has climbed to 0.427, the highest level since April.

Bitcoin exchange Whale ratio on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Whale deposits tend to precede distribution phases, as large entities prefer Binance’s liquidity for offloading size. With BTC struggling to extend above $93,000, this shift implied growing resistance overhead. If the trend persists, the price is more likely to consolidate or retest support before attempting another breakout.

Yearly-high BTC inflows to Binance raise alarm

Onchain data showed the 30-day simple-moving average (SMA) of BTC inflows to Binance reached 8,915 on Nov. 28, closely matching its highest reading of 9,031 on March 3. Historically, similar inflow peaks, such as the one recorded in March, have been preceded by sharp downward moves.

Bitcoin exchange inflow (total) on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

This surge suggested that holders are actively preparing to de-risk, or cycle out of Bitcoin following its rally. With the market attempting to secure a position above $96,000 resistance, Binance’s growing inventory acts as an immediate headwind. Until the excess supply is absorbed, an uptrend could be limited.

Related: Bitcoin unlikely to replicate January’s surge to new high: 21Shares founder

USDT deposits rise: Are traders positioning for volatility?

Binance also recorded 946,000 USDT deposit transactions in seven days, far outpacing OKX (841,000) and Bybit (225,000). Rising stablecoin inflows generally indicate traders are preparing to act, either to buy dips aggressively or reposition during rapid moves.

USDT flows from different exchanges on Tron. Source: CryptoQuant

Given the current backdrop of whale selling and elevated BTC inflows, this surge is more likely a sign of traders setting up for reactive trading, not passive accumulation. In periods of uncertainty, stablecoin inflows often lead to heightened volatility and short-term range resets.

If BTC loses $90,000, this liquidity could accelerate the move lower. However, if the support holds up, it may fuel a sharp counter-trend bounce.

Related: Ether outpaces Bitcoin’s trend change: Is ETH on track for a 20% rally?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Concerns about stablecoin issuer Tether’s financial stability resurfaced this week after BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes warned the company could face serious trouble if the value of its reserve assets were to fall. But CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, pushed back on those claims.

In a Dec. 5 market update, Butterfill said fears over Tether’s solvency “look misplaced.”

He pointed to Tether’s latest attestation, which reports $181 billion in reserves against roughly $174.45 billion in liabilities, leaving a surplus of nearly $6.8 billion.

“Although stablecoin risks should never be dismissed outright, the current data do not indicate systemic vulnerability,” Butterfill wrote.

Tether remains one of the most profitable companies in the sector, generating $10 billion in the first three quarters of the year — an unusually high figure on a per-employee basis.

Related: Arthur Hayes tells Zcash holders to withdraw from CEXs and ‘shield’ assets

The latest source of Tether anxiety

While speculation about Tether’s financial health is hardly new — media outlets have probed its reserves and asset backing for years — the latest round of solvency worries appears to stem from Arthur Hayes. 

The BitMEX co-founder said last week that Tether was “in the early innings of running a massive interest-rate trade,” arguing that a 30% drop in its Bitcoin (BTC) and gold holdings would “wipe out their equity” and leave its USDt (USDT) stablecoin technically “insolvent.”

Both assets make up a substantial portion of Tether’s reserves, with the company increasing its gold exposure in recent years.

Source: Arthur Hayes

Tether is facing criticism from more than just Hayes. CEO Paolo Ardoino recently pushed back on S&P Global’s downgrade of USDt’s ability to defend its US dollar peg, dismissing the move as “Tether FUD” — shorthand for fear, uncertainty, and doubt — and citing the company’s third-quarter attestation report in its defense.

S&P Global downgraded the stablecoin over stability concerns, citing its exposure to “higher-risk” assets such as gold, loans and Bitcoin.

Source: Paolo Ardoino

Tether’s USDt remains the largest stablecoin in the cryptocurrency market, with $185.5 billion in circulation and a market share of nearly 59%, according to CoinMarketCap.

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Bitcoin (BTC) miners are learning the hard way that “number go up” doesn’t always trickle down. Even with Bitcoin prices still elevated by historical standards, mining margins have been sharply squeezed, with some industry analysts describing the current climate as the “harshest margin environment” on record. Balance sheets are shrinking, leverage is being reduced, and companies such as CleanSpark are moving to pay down Bitcoin-backed credit lines.

The strain is spilling into public markets. Bitcoin miners and other BTC “proxy” trades have come under heavy pressure, highlighted by the collapse in shares of American Bitcoin.

Not every corner of the market is retreating, however. Capital is flowing into crypto-adjacent platforms, with prediction market Kalshi recently raising $1 billion at an $11-billion valuation after a tenfold increase in trading volumes since 2024, overtaking Polymarket.

Meanwhile, Ether is gaining traction in derivatives markets. CME Group reports that Ether (ETH) futures volumes have recently surpassed those tied to Bitcoin, reflecting rising options volatility and growing trader interest.

This week’s Crypto Biz examines the intensifying pressure on Bitcoin miners, the surge in Ethereum derivatives activity and Kalshi’s blockbuster funding round.

Bitcoin mining companies squeezed by “harshest margin environment of all time”

Renewed volatility in the Bitcoin market has pushed mining economics into the “harshest margin environment of all time,” according to TheMinerMag, which cited structurally low mining revenues driven by falling hash prices, rising operating costs and equipment payback periods stretching beyond 1,000 days as key warning signs.

“Balance sheets are retracting” in response to the worsening economics, the publication said, pointing specifically to CleanSpark’s decision to fully repay its Bitcoin-backed credit line with Coinbase as an example of miners moving to reduce financial risk.

Bitcoin mining stocks have remained volatile in 2025 as the industry continues to adjust to the revenue shock from last year’s Bitcoin halving, which cut mining rewards in half. At the same time, many miners are pivoting toward AI and high-performance computing workloads in an effort to secure more stable, predictable revenue than Bitcoin mining alone can provide.

American Bitcoin stock crashes as BTC proxy trade unravels

Shares of American Bitcoin, a mining and digital asset treasury company associated with Eric Trump, plummeted more than 50% in a single trading session this week, underscoring the extreme volatility still affecting crypto-linked equities.

The stock lost roughly half its value shortly after the market opened Tuesday, extending a broader sell-off across Bitcoin mining stocks and other so-called crypto “proxy” trades that has intensified since Bitcoin pulled back from its October high.

American Bitcoin shares are now down more than 75% from their post-listing high of $9.31, reached shortly after the company began trading publicly through a reverse merger with Gryphon Mining. The steep decline underscores growing investor caution toward speculative crypto equities as Bitcoin prices and mining economics come under pressure.

American Bitcoin (ABTC) has experienced extreme volatility since September. Source: Yahoo Finance

Kalshi raises $1 billion as valuation swells

Prediction market Kalshi has raised $1 billion at an $11-billion valuation, signaling a renewed interest in event-based trading among investors.

The Series E funding round followed Kalshi’s strongest month on record for trading activity and was led by crypto-focused venture firm Paradigm, with participation from Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital and ARK Invest.

Kalshi’s trading volume reached $4.54 billion in November, surpassing its previous all-time high, according to industry data. The company stated that its trading activity has grown tenfold since 2024, surpassing rivals such as Polymarket to become the largest prediction market by volume.

Kalshi (blue) overtakes Polymarket (green) in trading volume. Source: Token Terminal

CME rekindles Ether super-cycle debate

CME Group has reported a sharp rise in Ether futures trading activity, with volumes recently surpassing those of Bitcoin options. The exchange said the surge may reflect a catch-up trade or the early stages of a broader Ether “super-cycle.”

In a recent video, CME executive Priyanka Jain stated that ETH options are currently exhibiting higher volatility than Bitcoin options, a shift that appears to be attracting increased speculative and hedging activity.

“This heightened volatility has served as a powerful magnet for traders, directly accelerating participation in CME Group’s Ether futures,” Jain said. “Is this Ether’s long-awaited super-cycle, or merely a catch-up trade driven by short-term volatility?”

Earlier this week, the CME Group launched a new Bitcoin Volatility Index, along with several additional cryptocurrency benchmarks, providing traders with standardized pricing and volatility reference data.

Source: CME Group

Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

Key takeaways:

The Federal Reserve’s move away from quantitative tightening and rate cuts creates liquidity, making fixed-income assets less attractive.

Surging tech credit risks, as evidenced by high Oracle debt protection costs, prompt investors to seek alternative, scarcer assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 4% on Friday to a low of $88,140, extending its decline to 19% since November. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is now less than 1% from its all-time high. This sharp divergence may soon close with a strong upside move for Bitcoin, fueled by a major shift in central bank policy and growing credit stress.

This perfect storm has the potential to propel Bitcoin to the psychologically critical $100,000 barrier before the year concludes.

Fixed income’s fading appeal and tech credit scare could fuel Bitcoin rally

The most critical factor is the Federal Reserve’s pivot from quantitative tightening, a process of draining liquidity from the financial system by allowing the maturity of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities without reinvesting the proceeds. The Fed officially halted this program on Dec. 1.

Total assets of the Federal Reserve, USD. Source: TradingView

Over the last six months, the Fed's balance sheet contracted by $136 billion, removing a significant amount of cash. The market is aggressively anticipating the next phase based on lower interest rates. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, bond futures assign an 87% probability to a rate cut at the upcoming Dec. 10 Fed meeting, with expectations fully pricing in three cuts by September 2026.

US Money Market fund assets, USD trillion. Source: Bloomberg

Lower interest rates and increasing systemic liquidity fundamentally erode the demand for fixed-income assets. As the Fed cuts rates, the returns on new bond issuances also decline, making them less attractive to institutional funds. According to Bloomberg, there is now a record-high $8 trillion in US money-market funds.

Credit Default Swaps for Oracle’s debt. Source: Bloomberg

The potential capital rotation is further incentivized by structural risks emerging in the equity markets, especially in the tech sector. The cost of protecting Oracle’s (ORCL US) debt against default using Credit Default Swaps has surged to its highest level since 2009. Oracle had $105 billion of debt, including leases, as of the end of August.

Related: US investors consider crypto less as risk-taking drops–FINRA study

Oracle is counting on hundreds of billions of dollars in revenues from OpenAI, according to Bloomberg. The company is the largest debt issuer outside of the banking industry in the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index. “Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about how much more supply may be on the horizon,” according to a Citigroup credit strategy report.

Bank of America says steady Fed rates increase economic slowdown odds

Investors fear this high-stakes push, which includes the US Donald Trump administration’s Genesis Mission, a national initiative aimed at doubling US scientific productivity through the use of AI and nuclear energy. The surge in demand for debt protection signals extreme market unease regarding the immense debt-fueled spending, which may not yield adequate returns.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett argued that if the Fed sends a message of steady interest rates, the odds of a wider economic slowdown significantly increase. This uncertainty, combined with a desire for growth less dependent on stimulus, reinforces the appeal of Bitcoin's scarcity as institutional capital looks to de-risk its traditional tech exposures.

The Fed’s official end to its liquidity drain program and the market’s aggressive pricing of interest rate cuts provide a monumental tailwind. With tech credit risks surging due to massive AI-related debt, capital is structurally primed to rotate into scarce assets. This convergence establishes a clear path for BTC to breach the $100,000 milestone over the next couple of months.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Mugafi, an AI-driven platform for entertainment intellectual property (IP), has partnered with Avalanche to tokenize films, anime, music and other media assets, allowing creators to finance and distribute projects directly onchain.

The initiative will draw from Mugafi’s catalog and upcoming films. According to the company, its AI systems, trained on thousands of scripts and story structures, help evaluate projects before they are brought onchain for financing.

Mugafi and Avalanche plan to finance more than $10 million in entertainment IP. The companies said their long-term target is to exceed $1 billion in annual IP financing throughput.

Avalanche said the partnership aims to demonstrate how its network can support large-scale real-world asset issuance. The companies plan to use Avalanche’s infrastructure to fund, track and distribute entertainment projects onchain.

Mugafi’s Kuberaa film. Source: Mugafi

Mugafi, launched in 2020 in India, is backed by several entertainment and venture investors, including Nexus VP, HashedEM, Netflix, Amazon and Panorama Studios, among others. Its 2025 release, Kuberaa, recorded $35 million in box office collections and was distributed via Amazon Prime Video.

According to the announcement, the collaboration is expected to support new roles across AI, production, blockchain operations and compliance. Mugafi projects more than 1,500 creator and studio opportunities across several regions including India, North America, Japan and Korea.

Blockchain in entertainment and film

The push to bring entertainment IP onchain has been gathering momentum for years among both creators and platforms, with several projects exploring tokenization and Web3 rights management.

In September, Animoca Brands partnered with Ibex Japan, the corporate innovation arm of Antler, to launch a Web3 entertainment fund focused on bringing Japan’s anime and manga IP onchain. The initiative aims to unlock value from Japan’s largely underutilized IP catalog. 

PIP Labs has emerged as a major player in the Web3 IP space with the development of Story Protocol, a layer-1 blockchain designed to manage and program intellectual property onchain. 

IP registered on Story between March and June 2025. Source: Story Foundation

Founded in 2022 by former Google DeepMind product manager Jason Zhao, the project enables creators to tokenize their work, record IP onchain, and set the terms under which it can be used, shared or adapted. The framework is intended to help rights holders maintain control over their content and its downstream use.

In August 2024, PIP Labs raised $80 million in a Series B round led by a16z Crypto and Polychain Capital to advance Story Protocol.

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Bitcoin (BTC) may be holding above $90,000, but data implied that its price is still flashing a significant risk-off signal. CryptoQuant’s multi-metric risk-off oscillator remained near the “High-Risk” zone, a level that historically precedes corrections and diminishes the probability of a sustained bullish trend.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s risk-off signal was positioned near “High-Risk” territory, which has previously indicated a bearish period.

BTC’s Profit–Loss sentiment has hit a rare -3 extreme, signalling a structural correction.

BTC’s -32% drawdown placed it between a correction and capitulation zone, which may prolong the decline between $90,000 and $80,000.

Bitcoin is structurally weak near $90,000

CryptoQuant’s Risk-Off model incorporates six metrics — downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest, and market cap behavior — to produce a data-driven assessment of market fragility. With the oscillator near 60 or the High-Risk zone, correction risk remains elevated.

Bitcoin risk-off signal. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also noted that the profit/loss score has dropped to -3, reflecting an extreme concentration of unprofitable UTXOs. Historically, this level aligned with bearish regimes and extended cooling phases. The current -32% drawdown exceeded normal cycle pullbacks (-20–25%) but remains above capitulation thresholds (-50% to -70%), placing Bitcoin in a vulnerable “intermediate zone.”

Adler said that as long as macroeconomic conditions and onchain profitability fail to improve, the probability of continued downside remains high, despite the price stabilizing near $90,000.

Percentage drawdown of Bitcoin price from all-time high to historical lows. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

At this stage, onchain data from Glassnode offered a small silver lining. The analytics platform noted that Bitcoin’s latest drawdown triggered the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in 2022, overwhelmingly driven by short-term holders (STHs).

However, long-term holder (LTH) losses remain comparatively muted, a dynamic that historically reflects core holder resilience and has sometimes cushioned deeper capitulation in past cycles. 

Related: Bitcoin price action, investor sentiment point to bullish December

$100,000 Bitcoin is a battle between the momentum and the trend 

One CryptoQuant analyst described Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000 as a “psychological turning point.” While a breakout could trigger renewed momentum, possibly helped by a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Dec. 10, major round numbers often produce volatility and failed attempts.

BTC’s growth rate difference (Market Cap vs Realized Cap). Source: CryptoQuant

The growth rate difference (Market Cap vs. Realized Cap) remained at -0.00095, indicating that the market cap is shrinking faster than the realized cap. With BTC currently at $91,000, the analyst leaned more toward structural weakness rather than trend expansion.

Bitcoin futures trader, Byzantine General, also identified shaky price action for BTC, stating, 

“$BTC is struggling a bit here at this key resistance level. If it breaks through, it could fly over 100,000 very quickly, but if it actually rejects here, then we're probably stuck in this 92,000- 82,000 range for a while.”

Related: Bitcoin accumulation trends strengthen as realized losses near $5.8B

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency markets saw another week of consolidation following last week’s long-awaited market recovery.

While Bitcoin (BTC) remained above the key $90,000 psychological level, investor sentiment continued to be dominated by “fear,” with a marginal improvement from 20 to 25 within the week, according to CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed index.

In the wider crypto space, the Ether (ETH) treasury trade appears to be unwinding, as the monthly acquisitions by Ethereum digital asset treasuries (DATs) fell 81% in the past three months from August’s peak.

Still, the biggest corporate Ether holder, BitMine Immersion Technologies, continued to amass ETH, while other treasury firms carried on with their fundraising efforts for future acquisitions.

Fear & Greed index, all-time chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Investors are also awaiting the key interest rate decision during the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on Wednesday to provide more cues about monetary policy leading into 2026.

Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, up from 62% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Interest rate cut probabilities. Source: CMEgroup.com

Ethereum treasury trade unwinds 80% as handful of whales dominate buys

The Ethereum treasury trade appears to be unwinding as monthly acquisitions continue to decline since the August high, though the largest players continue to scoop up billions of the Ether supply.

Investments from Ethereum DATs fell 81% in the past three months, from 1.97 million Ether in August to 370,000 ETH in November, according to Bitwise, an asset management firm.

“ETH DAT bear continues,” wrote Max Shennon, senior research associate at Bitwise, in a Tuesday X post.

Despite the slowdown, some companies with stronger financial backgrounds continued to accumulate the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency or raise funds for future purchases.

Source: Max Shennon

BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate Ether holder, accumulated about 679,000 Ether worth $2.13 billion over the past month, completing 62% of its target to accumulate 5% of the ETH supply, according to data from the Strategicethreserve.

BitMine holds an additional $882 million worth of cash according to the data aggregator, which may signal more incoming Ether accumulation.

Top corporate Ether holders. Source: Strategicethreserve.xyz

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Citadel causes uproar by urging SEC to regulate DeFi tokenized stocks

Market maker Citadel Securities has recommended that the US Securities and Exchange Commission tighten regulations on decentralized finance regarding tokenized stocks, causing backlash from crypto users.

Citadel Securities told the SEC in a letter on Tuesday that DeFi developers, smart-contract coders, and self-custody wallet providers should not be given “broad exemptive relief” for offering trading of tokenized US equities.

It argued that DeFi trading platforms likely fall under the definitions of an “exchange” or “broker-dealer” and should be regulated under securities laws if offering tokenized stocks.

“Granting broad exemptive relief to facilitate the trading of a tokenized share via DeFi protocols would create two separate regulatory regimes for the trading of the same security,” it argued. “This outcome would be the exact opposite of the “technology-neutral” approach taken by the Exchange Act.”

Citadel’s letter, made in response to the SEC looking for feedback on how it should approach regulating tokenized stocks, has drawn considerable backlash from the crypto community and organizations advocating for innovation in the blockchain space.

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Arthur Hayes warns Monad could crash 99%, calls it high-risk “VC coin”

Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes has issued a warning over Monad, saying the recently launched layer-1 blockchain could plunge as much as 99% and end up as another failed experiment driven by venture capital hype rather than real adoption.

Speaking on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX chief described the project as “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token structure alone puts retail traders at risk. FDV stands for Fully Diluted Value, which is the market value of a crypto project if all its tokens were already in circulation.

According to Hayes, projects with a large gap between FDV and circulating supply often experience early price spikes, followed by deep selloffs once insider tokens unlock. “It’s going to be another bear chain,” Hayes said, adding that while every new coin gets an initial pump, that does not mean it will develop a lasting use case.

Hayes said most new layer-1 networks ultimately fail, with only a handful likely to retain long-term relevance. He identified Bitcoin, Ether, Solana (SOL) and Zcash (ZEC) as the small group of protocols he expects to survive the next cycle.

Last year, Monad raised $225 million in funding from venture capital firm Paradigm. The layer-1 blockchain went live on Monday, accompanied by an airdrop of its MON token.

Monad’s MON token up 40% since launch. Source: CoinMarketCap

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$25 billion crypto lending market now led by “transparent” players: Galaxy

The crypto lending market has become more transparent than ever, led by the likes of Tether, Nexo and Galaxy, and has just hit an aggregate loan book of nearly $25 billion outstanding in the third quarter.

The size of the crypto lending market has increased by more than 200% since the beginning of 2024, according to Galaxy Research. Its latest quarter puts it at its highest since its peak in Q1 2022.

However, it has yet to return to its peak of $37 billion at that time.

The main difference is the number of new centralized finance lending platforms and much more transparency, said Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn.

Thorn said on Sunday that he was proud of the chart and the transparency of its contributors, adding that it was a “big change from prior market cycles.”

The crypto lending landscape has seen many new platforms in the past three years. Source: Alex Thorn

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Portal to Bitcoin raises $25 million and launches atomic OTC desk

Bitcoin-native interoperability protocol Portal to Bitcoin has raised $25 million in funding amid the launch of what it describes as an atomic over-the-counter (OTC) trading desk.

According to a Thursday announcement shared with Cointelegraph, the company raised $25 million in a round led by digital asset lender JTSA Global. The fundraise follows previous investments by Coinbase Ventures, OKX Ventures, Arrington Capital and others.

Alongside the fresh funding, the company rolled out its Atomic OTC desk, promising “instant, trustless cross-chain settlement of large block trades.” The newly deployed service is reminiscent of crosschain atomic swaps offered by THORChain, Chainflip, and more Bitcoin-focused systems such as Liquality and Boltz.

What sets Portal to Bitcoin apart is its focus on the Bitcoin-anchored crosschain OTC market for institutions and whales, along with its tech stack. “Portal provides the infrastructure to make Bitcoin the settlement layer for global asset markets, without bridges, custodians, or wrapped assets,” said Chandra Duggirala, founder and CEO of Portal.

Portal to Bitcoin team members, from left to right: co-founder and chief technology officer Manoj Duggirala, founder and CEO Chandra Duggirala, and co-founder George Burke. Source: Portal to Bitcoin

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DeFi market overview

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.

The Canton (CC) token fell 18%, marking the week’s biggest decline in the top 100, followed by the Starknet (STRK) token, down 16% on the weekly chart.

Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama

Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.

For more than a decade, Bitcoin investors have relied on the familiar four-year cycle to navigate bull runs, capitulations and market shifts driven by halving events. In 2025, that long-standing roadmap is beginning to look outdated — and analysts are seeking a new framework to understand where Bitcoin (BTC) is headed next.

Some argue that institutional capital is reshaping the market. Others highlight the weakening impact of the halving, the rise of AI as a competing investment frontier, or global liquidity trends that no longer line up with old patterns. Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be moving like it used to.

In this exclusive Cointelegraph interview, Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, challenges the assumptions behind the four-year cycle, claiming that Bitcoin may now be transitioning into a much shorter, more dynamic two-year cycle.

Park argues that Bitcoin’s market structure has undergone a fundamental shift as institutional flows operate under different incentives than those of retail investors.

At the core of Park’s argument is a provocative idea: Shorter cycles could dramatically reshape how investors think about timing, volatility and Bitcoin’s potential path through 2026.

Park also touches on why some players prefer short-term weakness, how liquidity patterns intersect with the new cycle and what this shift could mean for the next major move.

Watch the complete interview with Jeff Park on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel for his full breakdown of the two-year cycle theory and its implications for Bitcoin's future.

Polymarket is recruiting staff for an internal market-making team that may trade against users on its platform.

The company has recently approached traders — including sports bettors — about joining the group, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the discussions.

The initiative comes as Polymarket expands its US presence after resolving regulatory issues stemming from a 2022 case, when it paid a $1.4 million penalty to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

Event contracts on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

Kalshi, a Polymarket competitor, already operates an internal unit known as Kalshi Trading, which places bids on its exchange to help support liquidity. The arrangement has drawn criticism from some users, and a proposed class-action lawsuit filed last month alleged that the desk sets betting lines that disadvantage customers.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi have also sought external participants to supply liquidity on their platforms. On Kalshi, companies such as Susquehanna International Group have taken on market-making roles.

Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment but had not received a response at time of publication.

Related: Polymarket is opening US app to waitlisted users after CFTC green light

Coinbase CEO’s take on prediction markets

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have experienced significant growth in recent years, with both companies securing new partnerships and reaching high private-market valuations as the sector expands.

The platforms enable users to bet on a wide range of events, from sports to predicting the next day’s weather in New York City.

During The New York Times’ DealBook Summit on Thursday, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong argued that prediction markets’ trading desks could strengthen such markets’ accuracy.

Source: Polymarket

“If your goal is for the 99% of the people trying to get a signal about what’s going to happen in the world […] you actually want insider trading,” he said, adding that traders would benefit from “really good information” and “get a higher quality signal out of them.”

He added:

“Now, if you want to preserve the integrity of those markets, maybe you don’t want insider trading. So there might be like a decentralization test that has to go in here, but it’s not a clear cut answer.”

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who was also part of the discussion, was not so enthusiastic about prediction markets.

“We try to help people navigate a 30-year outcome,” Fink said. “I don’t really care about what happens in the next moment. I’m aware in the betting market, in football, you can bet every play, but to me, this is not how I’m going to live my life.”

In the third quarter of 2024, prediction markets saw a combined volume on the three largest platforms increase by 565% to $3.1 billion, up from $463.3 million in the prior quarter.

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