cnchina crypto

The fear index has dropped to 9 today, which falls into the extreme fear category. I checked, and since 2018, the lowest the crypto fear index has been is 5, which has only happened twice: once in 2019 and once this year. That’s some serious market action.
Since 2018, the periods of extreme fear (<=10) have been:
August 2019 - Continuation of the bear market downtrend
March 2020 - End of the bear market during the 312 extreme event
July 2021 - Mid-bull market dip during the 519 drop
January 2022 - End of the bull market beginning to fall
June 2022 - Continuation of the bear market downtrend
February 2025 - Tariff trade war mid-bull market dip
November 2025 - Beginning of the bear market downtrend
February 2026 - Decline due to the Iran war
June 2026 - Continuation of the bear market downtrend
You can see that previously, drops below 10 were rare, but now it’s happening all the time. My guess is that this fear index is a bit distorted and isn’t as accurate as it used to be. This might be the fate of every technical indicator in the end.
$BTC

Why is the price of ETH not rising after bitmine bought it, but is actually dropping?
Last week, ETH's price was basically crashing down by 100 bucks a day. Now, it's Wednesday this week and the price is still hovering around 1600 bucks. If we’re talking about a poor performance, the price could drop to around 1400 by Friday, maybe even touch 1300, but it won’t linger too long – that depends on Ethereum's resilience.
Some say bitmine bought more ETH, but the price didn't drop. First off, you don't know their buying channels; typically, only quick purchases in the exchange market can trigger an effective pump. If there's no noticeable pump, then we have three possibilities:
First, they might've bought through C2C or OTC methods, which don't create effective trades in the market, so there’s no impact on liquidity or price because their prices are contractually set, not market price.
Second, there might be a timing gap in the purchase; just because you see they withdrew ETH on-chain doesn’t mean they bought it right then. When exactly this ETH was purchased and how remains unclear.
Third, there could be too much selling pressure; they might've just caught this selling pressure when buying, or slowly accumulated without significantly impacting the market. For instance, dollar-cost averaging or grid trading without breaking the grid can just lower costs and earn some spread, but if the grid breaks, then they withdraw – at that point, the price won’t show any significant changes.
So the conclusion is, don’t get excited just because bitmine withdrew coins thinking it’s time to jump in. Institutions have many strategies to scoop up coins at low prices; direct purchases in exchanges are just the most basic method. $ETH

CME and Nasdaq have teamed up to launch crypto index futures, which is pretty significant. First off, it's an index, similar to the NASDAQ 100 that we trade. Secondly, the constituent coins are mostly reputable. Any coins not included in this index aren't recommended for long-term holding. Currently, the coins that have made it into this index are BTC, ETH, BCH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, and XLM. Interestingly, LTC didn't make the cut, which indirectly highlights its decline. $BTC $ETH

Woke up this morning to see the Nasdaq tanking, and crypto prices are following suit. There are two pieces of news.
First off, a U.S. helicopter got taken down by an Iranian drone, and now the U.S. is retaliating. It’s just a patrol chopper, so getting shot down is definitely not cool. Any sign of conflict usually sends the market into a downward spiral.
Secondly, the demand for SpaceX's IPO orders has exceeded expectations, and stock traders are offloading shares to make room for SpaceX. This has created some serious selling pressure.
Putting it all together, I don’t expect any good opportunities in the market until at least Friday evening when SpaceX goes live.
$BTC $ETH

Why has jucoin turned out this way, and what lessons does it offer for other exchanges?
So far, gateio has been holding up reasonably well among the established exchanges; it was a major player during the ICO boom and was one of the first to list ETH trading, while Huobi and OK only jumped on board in 2017. Jubi had a great hand dealt but played it poorly. Its rise was fueled by a flood of ICO tokens, but the severe rug pulls on these coins caused a significant user exodus. Other exchanges also started listing a bunch of altcoins, which mainly contributed to Jubi losing market share. Eventually, it became a ghost town of an exchange, relying purely on luck.
Moreover, the primary difference between Jubi and gateio is that gateio has managed to retain its users clearly after the 94 crackdown, providing stability for its clients. In contrast, Jubi has been shrouded in ambiguity; users are unsure whether coinegg simply rebranded or was sold off to someone else, creating distrust which led to a mass user departure. Plus, the user experience has significantly deteriorated, naturally leading to a big drop in users.
Eventually, jucoin was launched, which made a lot of people feel that it was all too casual. You keep launching new exchanges, but it’s hard to tell which one is the real deal; who would want to trade there? Gateio, on the other hand, although it rebranded, has always been the same exchange without a lot of unnecessary gimmicks, and it’s quite a feat to still be around today.
In the end, the current situation with jucoin is essentially a result of user attrition at the exchange. User loss is fundamentally due to the bear market being tough, and on the other hand, after the 94 crackdown, they failed to really address market pain points, such as the demand for a large number of tokens and the C2C market needs. Huobi capitalized on this and was able to grow rapidly, while Binance, being one of the first exchanges to use stablecoins like USDT, leveraged this to its advantage. Gateio thrived due to its stable service; long-time users likely feel a sense of belonging. Additionally, gateio took the opportunity post-94 to clean up a lot of junk tokens and introduced some quality coins, creating a surge in demand for speculative altcoins in November after 94. Any exchange that actively listed decent altcoins at that time could gain user recognition, whereas coinegg lagged behind and missed the boat. Even now, I still can't figure out the connection between jucoin and egg; it's all very vague to me.
Later on, when jucoin emerged, trying to imitate those successful exchanges was too late; there was no competitive edge left. Besides the hype around their platform tokens making some speculators some gains, most long-time users ended up losing money, and closure was just a matter of time. Smaller exchanges, like those in the third or fourth tier, might have their advantages, but they won’t be significant. The ones that can survive will be the ones that can sip a bit of the soup during the next bull run.

Let's break down the history of jucoin.
Jucoin was one of the biggest exchanges back during the ICO boom, often referred to as the 'Jucoin Casino.' In 2017, Binance hadn't launched yet, and Huobi and OKEx were primarily focused on BTC and LTC, with a pitiful selection of altcoins. Most traders flocked to Jucoin to play the game.
Deposits back then were made via bank transfers, and I did that once myself. Jucoin was the first exchange where I actually spent real money to buy crypto. However, most of the assets listed were trash coins, albeit some gems like Dogecoin, Ripple, BitShares, AntShares, Worldcoin, Earthcoin, Maxcoin, and Dimecoin were also present, making it a mixed bag. The prices were still quoted in RMB, and Jucoin really took off thanks to ICOs.
After the crackdown on domestic exchanges and ICOs post-2017, Jucoin rebranded to Coinegg, also known as 'Coin Egg,' and some users' funds were conveniently transferred over. Many ICO tokens were just delisted and went to zero, leading to a dwindling user base as traders migrated to Huobi, which was thriving at the time, while OKCoin was slightly behind, and Binance was just starting to emerge.
After the bear market of 2018, Binance saw rapid growth, and Huobi also held its ground. OKCoin split into OKCoin and OKEx, while Coinegg fell silent like a still pond.
Eventually, Coin Egg's operations declined, and I stopped keeping tabs on it. Then jucoin popped up, though I can't recall exactly when—I’m too lazy to check. It was said to be created by the original team behind Jucoin, but Coinegg was still around, just with no users left.
Jucoin later survived by launching its platform token since platform tokens were all the rage back then, but it didn't quite reach its former glory. I think this was mainly due to the aggressive 'scalping' during the ICO craze, leaving only a handful of early Jucoin traders to follow.
#jucoin

Have you all noticed that ever since the claude code took off this year, the crypto scene has been hit with more and more hacking incidents? It’s almost weekly now. Some amounts are small and get overlooked, while others are significant, causing market volatility. Today, the price dropped to $H , and it seems like the ultimate harvest in the crypto space is actually AI.

From the perspective of the刻舟法, the current price is around 60k, which is close to the predicted bottom, but we haven't hit the timing yet. So, we can expect the market to primarily consolidate and range trade until around September this year. After that, we might see a mini bull run within the bear market, which could last about 6 months. In other words, there might still be an opportunity for a price bump by the end of this year, but the downside is limited. The 60k mark is the second-lowest point, and in extreme cases, it could drop to around 50k.

The second method of the boat carving is the misaligned bull and bear market approach.

We noticed that the peak of the 2017 bull run was near the bottom of the 2022 bear market, with the 2017 high hitting 19.7k, which only held for a day, and that was precisely the bottom of the 2022 bear market, with a discrepancy of about 30%. The lowest point of the 2018 bear market was around 3100, while the highest point of the 2013 bull market was around 1100, meaning the difference was almost doubled.
This time, the bear market's lowest point is near the last bull market's highest point, and the gap is continuously narrowing. If we calculate with a 20% difference this time,
then according to this deduction, the peak of 2021 is likely to be the bottom of 2026, around 60k. Of course, there might be a significant error since the peak back then was 69k, and this time it's 60k, but it could also drop to 50k.
Thus, this bear market's lowest point could be 20% below the last bull market's highest point, which is around 55k. Considering the margin of error, it’s also close to 60k (though this discrepancy could be smaller, which would push the price higher than calculated).
The lowest point in 2016 was 152, which means the price surged about 100 times in 2017, while in 2021, it was over 3000, nearing 70k, a rise of about 20 times. Assuming this time the lowest is over 50k, the next bull market peak could be around 4 times that, roughly 200k. I believe it’s likely between 200k and 250k, and if we follow a four-year cycle, we’ll hit this price around late August to early September in 2029.
$BTC

Given the current state of the crypto scene, the 'boat carving' method is still quite effective. For instance, during the bull run in 2017, the peak was the week of December 18, with the lowest point on the week of December 10, 2018. In the bull run of 2021, the peak was the week of November 08, with the lowest on November 21, 2022. This time around, the peak is projected for the week of October 06, 2025, suggesting that the low point will likely be around early October this year.
The current market conditions are similar to August 2018, which also saw a rebound followed by a drop, although it didn’t create a new low since the bull market peak. What followed was a period of sideways trading until November, close to year-end, when prices dropped by half, going from over 6000 down to just above 3000.
The bull run in 2021 had a more relaxed situation, and the current market is akin to July of that year. At that time, the crypto price had just gone through a series of declines from March to June, hitting a new low in July before entering a sideways phase, with prices around 20k. Eventually, it slowly declined to about 15k, taking nearly four months to drop about a quarter.
We can observe a trend where the speed of decline is anticipated, but the extent of the drop is decreasing. Following this reasoning, the lowest point of this bear market is expected to be around October 2026. The current price of about 60k will likely consolidate for a while, then see a rapid decline as we approach October, ultimately hitting around 50k, which would represent the lowest point of this bear market.
There are many directions for the 'boat carving' method, and different directions yield different conclusions. Right now, we’re just deducing based on the timeline. Next, let’s use another 'boat carving' method to estimate the lowest point for this bear market.
$BTC

The Nasdaq futures dropped this morning, indicating that the market's selling pressure hasn't subsided yet. Right now, if the Nasdaq is up, crypto might not necessarily follow suit, but when the Nasdaq dips, crypto will definitely take a hit. So, we need to stay alert and not rush into bottom-fishing. Even if you're looking to buy the dip, consider dollar-cost averaging into $QQQ.

The impact of SpaceX's IPO brings three waves:
The first wave is the retail investor subscriptions, which refers to how many shares they applied for during the offering. Currently, the market is indicating a demand that's double the IPO amount. Of course, this doesn't reflect actual cash flow, but it does show how much capital is ready to be deployed; we can consider this as a market sentiment gauge.
The second wave involves actual funds being put to work in SpaceX's IPO. Simply put, this refers to the retail and institutional investors who won allocations and are truly putting their money on the line. This is crucial for capital absorption in the market, and some investors might sell off other stocks to raise cash.
The third phase is the listing phase, where retail investors typically buy in, while institutions may also step in to support the price. They need to absorb liquidity from various sources, and of course, there are external funds and early-stage investors looking to exit, which can create selling pressure. However, I believe the impact on market liquidity at this stage isn't too significant; it's mainly the influence of the chip exchange between buyers and sellers. #spacex $spcx

The Nasdaq futures climbed 0.86% overnight, which is relatively low. Theoretically, we should see at least a 50% bounce, translating to around a 2% increase, but in reality, it was over 1% during trading. So, this uptick is still on the smaller side. The crypto market hasn’t seen much volatility during the night either, considering this gain was already reflected in yesterday's daytime Nasdaq futures, so no surprises in pricing.
In other words, market sentiment isn’t great right now; there's still selling pressure. On one hand, tensions between Iran and Israel are escalating, and I believe the initial impact from SpaceX's funding has already played out, with a second wave about to hit. This is something we need to keep an eye on.

The Nasdaq's rebound last night wasn't that strong, we'll just have to wait for the later half of the night. It might be due to the Iran-Israel situation heating up at noon; after all, just because the Asian markets aren't paying much attention doesn't mean the Europeans and Americans won't. Time to catch some Z's and check back in the morning $BTC $ETH

$BTC MicroStrategy is being really shady this time. Last week, they shorted 32 BTC, which caused a market dump. Now that the price has dipped, they've bought back with a billion, treating retail investors like fodder, trying to low buy and high sell to reduce their costs.

Almost all military-industrial companies around the world rely on this land in the Middle East.
At noon, Iran got into it again with Israel. I think the situation is mainly due to Iran striking Israel a few days ago, and then Trump told Israel to hold off on retaliating while a deal was about to be signed. This morning, there were many reports indicating that the agreement is unlikely to be signed anytime soon, probably because of this, Israel started to hit back at Iran, leading to Iran retaliating as well. Overall, neighboring oil-producing countries will be affected to some extent. This time, Israel was attacked in Jerusalem, the capital, so it might not be easy to calm things down.
BTC and ETH saw a brief dip around noon, with ETH dropping from 1699 in the morning to around 1640, but now it's bounced back to around 1650, showing decent resilience. The stock market performance has been a bit lackluster, so let's keep an eye on it; I estimate that the evening performance of the US stock market won’t be too smooth either. $ETH $BTC

As long as the stock market doesn't see a major dip or volatility during the day, the US markets are likely to pump up tonight. A 4% drop is significant, and if it’s just due to a semiconductor rally rather than any substantial bad news, then it’s a healthy correction. The big players might not want to drag it out, so a quick adjustment within a week is the best strategy. They'll likely take advantage of this adjustment phase to set up for the next bull run, so other markets need to align as well; otherwise, we could see more corrections.
In summary, today's trading is crucial. The crypto market is currently reacting to the stock market's moves. I believe there's a good chance we’ll see a rebound tonight. The reasoning is straightforward: there was supposed to be bad news this morning, yet the crypto market didn’t tank significantly. This indicates that the whales aren’t looking to dump; otherwise, they would have done it this morning, which would impact tonight's trading even more. The fact that they didn’t dump this morning suggests that tonight's outlook isn’t too grim.
$BTC $ETH

The SpaceX equity token bought on Binance Wallet is issued by Prestocks. Now, Prestocks has finally released the disposal method for the SpaceX stock after its IPO. Here’s a streamlined version for everyone's reference:
1. After the IPO, keep a close eye on the stock's performance; it can be treated as an equivalent to the stock. However, due to a portion being locked, there will be a discount, which will be determined by the market.
2. The 1-for-5 split for SpaceX will be arranged, and the conversion to SpaceX from XAI will also be in place, without the need for KYC.
3. Once the underlying shares are unlocked, the price will align with the stock.
4. The conversion date for XAI is set for December this year at a ratio of 11:59, while SPACEX is on March 12, 2027.
The current lowest price across the network is 699, which seems reasonable. I believe other exchanges will handle their equity tokens similarly since the underlying assets are the same. The only difference is the conversion dates, as the acquisition costs vary across exchanges; some invested in 2020, others in 2024, and some even bought from other institutions. The positions of these institutions, whether they entered at Series A or Series C, also differ, leading to varying unlocking rules.
Therefore, it’s speculated that the real price after listing will likely be slightly higher than these tokenized stock prices. However, we also can’t rule out the possibility of price surges or even premiums due to active buying from investors in restricted regions. $SPCX #SPACEX

Ethereum’s back in the number two spot! Just now, a massive pump pushed ETH’s market cap to $20.3 billion, while USDT sits at $18.68 billion. However, in the long run, for USDT to firmly claim the number two position, it’ll need to wait until the bear market following the next bull run wraps up. Here’s why:
First, USDT is infinitely mintable, meaning its market cap relies entirely on demand, while ETH relies on price appreciation. The higher ETH climbs, the slower it tends to go up, so one day, USDT will inevitably surpass ETH. We’re close in this bull run, but it’s still a shaky position.
Second, during bear market sell-offs, ETH tends to drop significantly, while USDT will see an increase in issuance due to heightened demand, leading to a tug-of-war that makes it easier for USDT to snag that number two slot. This temporary rise of USDT to the second spot in market cap is a prime example of that.
Third, the demand for stablecoins is strong. USDC has even climbed to the fourth position, surpassing XRP, which showcases a solid market for stablecoins. Backing USDT are U.S. Treasuries, and with interest rates so high, it’s like making money while you sleep. Plus, the U.S. is worried about Treasuries not selling, so they might even encourage stablecoins to scoop them up, further boosting USDT’s issuance. In contrast, ETH’s staking rewards for POS are currently under 3% annualized. So, all things considered, USDT’s growth rate is outpacing ETH.
$USDT $ETH #Stablecoin

The Fear Index finally took a massive dive, dropping to 8, which is extreme fear. The last time it fell this much was on March 28, when the Iran war caused oil prices to spike and the US stock market took a hit, dragging BTC and ETH down to their lows at the time. Then, in April, we saw a rebound in the US stock market, with ETH bouncing back from the 1700s to a peak of 2400. This latest drop in the Fear Index reflects Friday's US market action; logically, we should see a reaction on Saturday, but it's curious that the index might need to carry over the weekend and update on Monday?
The Fear Index is a lagging indicator, representing market sentiment data from the previous day. It's a broad measure, calculated from various market indicators, like the volume of discussions on social media, the number of new bullish or bearish posts, and quantifiable data from search engine search volumes to make a comprehensive judgment.