0xMomo

$BTC has dropped to $63,600, and today it touched the 200-week moving average at $61,626. The last time it hit this line was in October 2023, and before that, it was at the bottom of the 2022 bear market. This is the first time in three years that we've returned here.

The daily RSI has plummeted to 17.35, the lowest since 2020. The 4-hour RSI is also only 26.63, extremely oversold. But extreme oversold conditions don't guarantee a rebound; in 2022, this line acted as resistance for over half a year until the bull market was confirmed.

The liquidation data speaks volumes. BTC dropped from $71,300 to $65,360, triggering $1.83 billion in liquidations, of which long positions were liquidated for $1.58 billion. This is the largest single-day liquidation event since BTC broke below $60K on February 6. Analyst Byzantine General stated it was "the largest BTC long liquidation since the black swan event on October 10 last year." Liquidity has been thoroughly flushed out.

Meanwhile, BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for 13 consecutive days, totaling $4.4 billion. The Strategy fund's paper losses have surpassed $11 billion. BTC supply on Binance has reached a three-month high of 659,000 coins, with on-chain analysts calling this a "signal that selling pressure may intensify."

But there's another side. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said this is an "accumulation zone." CollinTalksCrypto noted the return to the 200-week moving average, stating that "the best entry points in a bear market often occur below the 200-week moving average." The funding rate for BTC has turned negative at -0.0011%, indicating that leveraged long positions have been completely wiped out; this isn't a panic sell-off but rather a structural clearing.

My take is: $61,626 is a critical observation point. If it holds, this would validate structural support in the bull market since 2023; if it breaks, we might see a repeat of the 2022 "resistance-turned-support-turned-resistance" story. Currently, the macro environment has geopolitical risks and continuous pressure from ETF outflows, but the level of overselling has reached historical extremes.

This doesn't constitute investment advice, but this level deserves serious attention.

The SpaceX IPO roadshow officially kicked off today, with 555 million shares expected to list on June 12. Interestingly, the crypto space isn't just watching from the sidelines this time—four major exchanges have simultaneously launched pre-IPO trading products for SpaceX.

Coinbase introduced a perpetual contract for the pre-IPO today, settled in USDC, allowing 24/7 trading with no expiration date, automatically converting to post-IPO contracts after the listing. Kraken's parent company, Payward, announced a tokenized IPO channel yesterday. Binance launched SpaceX derivatives back in May, and Bitget rolled out IPO Prime in April. All four are making bets at the same time; this isn't a coincidence.

The RWA market has surged to $51 billion this year, expanding by 42%. Although tokenized stocks currently account for a small portion of the RWA market, trading volumes for major tech names like Tesla and Alphabet have already picked up on-chain. SpaceX, being the highest-valued private company globally, has become the first target all exchanges are vying for.

However, on the same day, Arthur Hayes did the opposite. He liquidated his positions in HYPE and NEAR, selling approximately $18 million worth of HYPE, publicly stating that the AI IPO wave would draw liquidity away from the crypto market in Q3. His logic is that with OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX all IPO-ing simultaneously, market funds will be siphoned off.

This creates an interesting standoff: Hayes argues that IPOs will drain liquidity, while exchanges claim that IPOs are the next product line. Both sides have valid points. In the short term, there's indeed a risk of funds flowing from the crypto market to the stock market on SpaceX's listing day, especially from that risk-hungry batch of money. However, in the long term, moving IPO trading on-chain is an irreversible trend—exchanges are not losing users; they are using IPOs to attract new users.

Back to the charts, BTC is at $64,089, with a 4-hour RSI of 28, indicating extreme overselling, and the funding rate is only 0.0015%; the market is already quite fearful. ETH also has an RSI of 28, dropping to $1,777. At this level, the SpaceX IPO presents both a short-term risk of fund diversion and a long-term user entry point. It all depends on which time frame you choose to view the issue.

BTC crashed to $61,384 this morning, with over $617 million in long positions liquidated within 24 hours, completely washing out the leverage market.

Let’s talk numbers. CoinGlass data shows that a total of $737 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $617 million. The longs were overcrowded, and just a pullback swept them all clean. ETH and SOL didn't escape either, dropping 5.4% and 7.2% respectively, with the entire altcoin sector bleeding out.

But the key point is that BTC has held around $61,800. This level is the 200-week moving average, which has marked the bear market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2020. Here we are again. After liquidating the longs, BTC rebounded 5.5% to $63,400, indicating that there is indeed buying pressure coming in after the leverage washout.

The 4-hour RSI is at 23, and the daily RSI is at 17, both in extreme oversold territory. The funding rate dropped to 0.0015%, with longs and shorts nearly balanced, and the leverage crowding has significantly decreased. This is a good sign, suggesting that the rebound isn’t just a leverage bubble.

However, there's a potential bearish pattern on the weekly chart—a bull flag breakdown, targeting $50,000-$52,000. If BTC breaks below the 200-week moving average, this pattern will be confirmed. The bulls have a clear bottom line: they can't let go of $61,800.

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has fueled this rebound, but the sustainability of this geopolitically driven bounce is in question. Currently, the market sentiment index is at 12, reflecting extreme fear for two consecutive days, with panic reaching its peak.

In my view, the $600 million long liquidation combined with the support of the 200-week moving average means the leverage has been thoroughly washed out. This isn’t a confirmation of a bottom, but at least it’s an observation window after the panic release. In the next 48 hours, we’ll see if $61,800 can hold; if it does, there’s a chance to bounce towards $69,000-$70,000. If it doesn’t hold, then that’s really another story.

BTC's ETF channel has seen outflows for 13 consecutive days, totaling $4.4 billion. This breaks last year's record of $3.2 billion over 8 days on February 8.

Today alone, another $397 million has flowed out. BlackRock's IBIT accounts for $3.3 billion, making up 75% of the total. Fidelity comes in second with $457 million, followed by Grayscale at $304 million.

From May 15 until now, BTC has plummeted from $80,000 to $63,400, a drop of 21%. During the same period, a net outflow of 51,726 BTC has occurred, valued at about $5 billion.

Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that overall demand has decreased by 501,000 BTC over the past month, marking the fastest decline in demand since the Terra collapse in 2022.

However, Bloomberg's ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has a different take. He mentioned that long-term institutional buyers, including ETFs and strategies, are still net accumulators. His exact words were, "Forget the retail crowd, we need to call the OGs, they're the real driving force behind this."

Interestingly, despite such a collapse in demand, the funding rate is only 0.0072%. This isn't a leveraged sell-off; it's real money being sold.

The 4-hour RSI for BTC has dropped to 15.9, indicating extreme oversold conditions. ETH's RSI is at 22, and BNB's RSI is at 24, all in the oversold zone. Historically, when RSI hits this level, it is often followed by a corrective rebound.

My current judgment is that the peak of ETF outflows may have passed. Thirteen consecutive days of outflows itself is an extreme expression of sentiment, and extremes often signal that a turning point isn't far off. But 'not far' doesn't mean 'rebound tomorrow.'

Key observation point: If the outflow over the next 3 days decreases from $400 million to below $200 million, the trend will start to slow down. If BTC can hold the psychological level of $60,000 without breaking it, the chances of an oversold recovery will increase.

Just remember, the inertia of ETF outflows won't vanish overnight, so don't rush to catch the bottom. Wait for signals of reduced volume and stable prices before making a move.

BTC dipped to 63000, RSI hit 17, and the market is panicking to the max. But today, two pieces of news have me thinking that Wall Street is rushing into crypto.

Kraken's parent company, Payward, announced that retail investors will soon be able to participate in US stock IPOs at the offering price. This isn't about chasing gains in the secondary market; it's directly obtaining IPO allocations and holding them on-chain in the form of tokenized stocks. Each token corresponds 1:1 with the underlying shares and is held by a licensed custodian. The first products will launch in a few weeks, and xStocks has already racked up $30 billion in trading volume, with $6 billion in on-chain settlements and 125,000 holders.

Payward’s head was pretty straightforward: for the last few decades, getting IPO pricing has been a privilege based on geography and net worth. Now, retail investors in Medellín and institutions in New York can have the same entry point.

On the same day, Revolut also dropped some news. They’re applying for a US banking license and plan to launch banking services next year, directly integrating stablecoin functionality. With 75 million global users, FDIC deposit insurance, multi-currency accounts, and crypto trading. They aren’t doing banking on a crypto platform; they’re doing crypto in a bank.

Put these two things together, and the picture is clear: the RWA tokenization market is already at $51 billion, up 42% this year. The stablecoin market is at $319.5 billion, a 29% year-over-year increase. Mastercard just announced support for USDC settlements, SoFi launched its own dollar stablecoin, and Falcon Finance issued institutional-grade stablecoins through a compliant platform. Traditional finance isn’t just watching; they’re lining up to enter.

But BTC dropped another 5% today, RSI at 17 in extreme oversold territory, with a funding rate of just 0.0015%, and leverage is nearly zero. ETH RSI is at 23, and BNB fell by 6.6%. The market is in panic sell-off mode, but development has never stopped.

This is why I find things interesting right now. Prices are telling one story, while on-chain and institutions are telling another. Short-term sentiment and long-term structure are completely disconnected. Once the panic is digested, these infrastructures will still be there.

I’m not saying to catch the bottom; I just think it’s worth keeping an eye on this contrast.

The Bitcoin ETF premium has dropped to a two-year low, but I think this is exactly the time to think seriously about it.

First, let’s check the data. The Fear and Greed index plummeted from 29 on Monday to 11, the lowest in two months. The RSI on the 4-hour chart is only at 19, even lower than yesterday's 18. ETH is similar, around 25, also oversold. The funding rate for BTC is just 0.0027%, and for ETH, it's 0.0077%, low enough to indicate almost no leverage crowding.

This isn’t a normal correction; it’s an emotional collapse.

But there’s a detail many people haven’t noticed. The S&P 500 hit a new high yesterday. BTC dropped nearly 5%, while U.S. stocks are rising. Analyst Cryptic Trades put it bluntly: "Low participation, poor sentiment, social buzz has collapsed, and bearish voices are overwhelming. Ironically, because of these factors, I continue to be bullish on the larger cycle."

His words aren’t just mindless optimism but are based on a fact: Historically, every time there’s been extreme fear readings, we’ve seen varying degrees of rebounds afterward. The question is, is this time different?

I think we need to look at two things. First, why is the ETF premium dropping? The ETF premium reflects how much institutional investors are willing to pay above market for BTC. A drop to a two-year low indicates that institutions are currently observing rather than panic selling. This is different from retail fear.

Second, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned today at the Senate hearing that the CLARITY Act is expected to pass this summer. His exact words were "moving forward at the fastest speed possible." This means the regulatory framework is tightening but the direction is clear—not a ban but building rules. 328,372 BTC are in the U.S. strategic reserves; that’s not a selling pressure that can be digested in the short term.

Now the question is: extreme fear + oversold RSI + low funding rates + favorable macro policies, what do these conditions usually mean together? Typically, they signal a precursor to a rebound. But the experience from 2022 tells us that oversold can become more oversold, and fear can go deeper.

My judgment is: there might be another dip in the short term because the U.S.-Iran situation and inflation expectations are still weighing down. But if you’re in for the mid to long-term, the current panic sentiment is actually a window for accumulation. Wait for BTC to hold the support at $62K before considering adding to your position. If it breaks below, the next support is at $58K.

In times of extreme fear, what’s needed most is not courage, but discipline.

A whale just got wrecked shorting HYPE on Hyperliquid, losing a whopping $46.46 million. Last Tuesday, they finally threw in the towel and closed their position, then instantly flipped long.

This trader goes by loracle.hl, and not only did they buy HYPE, but they also spread their position into ZEC and NEAR. Combined, these three positions add up to nearly $14 million in long exposure, currently seeing unrealized gains of over $920,000. These three coins are exactly what Arthur Hayes referred to as the "Holy Trinity"—he called HYPE to hit $150, NEAR to 20x, and ZEC to 5x earlier this year.

Why is ZEC worth a special mention? Because its funding rate is currently negative at -0.0415%. This means that shorts are actually paying longs. This extreme negative rate is particularly interesting in the context of BTC's sharp drop—BTC's RSI has plummeted to 19, indicating it's extremely oversold, yet ZEC's 4-hour RSI is only 57, daily RSI is also 57, and MACD bars are in the green. While the market is panicking, ZEC isn’t following the trend down, and shorts are paying to maintain their positions.

What does this indicate? ZEC's price action is decoupling from BTC. Over the past month, BTC has dropped from $80,000 to $64,000, a 20% decline, yet ZEC has surged from $400 to $615, gaining over 50%. Capital is moving from BTC into privacy coins and high Beta assets.

Hayes’ logic is that BTC is no longer exhibiting enough volatility to generate outsized returns, so smart money is seeking "high Beta trades outside of BTC." ZEC's market cap is just 1% of BTC's, so the same amount of capital entering ZEC would result in much greater price elasticity.

Of course, we must discuss the risks. ZEC's trading volume has recently shrunk, with the 5-day average volume only 0.67 times that of the previous 5 days. If the broader market continues to deteriorate and BTC breaks below $60,000, these high Beta assets may correct harder. Moreover, HYPE itself isn’t on mainstream exchanges, so its liquidity doesn't match ZEC's.

But at least the current signals suggest that when a trader who lost $46 million in shorts flips to long, the market's extreme sentiment might be nearing its peak.

Base's AI agent just crossed over 100 million payments.

Chainalysis dropped a report today showing that Coinbase's x402 protocol has executed over 100 million machine-to-machine payments on the Base chain in just nine months. The protocol itself isn't complicated: when an AI agent accesses a data source or API, it pays directly with stablecoins, with no human confirmation needed throughout the entire process.

The early growth was boosted by a memecoin experiment called PING, where users had to pay via x402 to mint tokens, causing a surge in volume. When the hype around PING cooled off, the volume didn't crash; instead, it stabilized.

What's really interesting is the structural changes. At the beginning of 2025, transactions over $1 made up 49% of the total transfer value; by the beginning of 2026, that number shot up to 95%. This shift from micropayment experiments to a genuine value transfer channel is significant. The weekly retention rate of on-chain wallets is also climbing, indicating that this isn't just a one-time speculative wave.

Coinbase CEO Armstrong, Circle CEO Allaire, and former Binance CEO CZ have all publicly stated that AI agents will become major players in on-chain activities. CZ went so far as to say that cryptocurrency is the native currency for AI agents. It's not just the crypto space that's paying attention; Stripe has also launched the Machine Payments Protocol, and Bernstein analysts believe AI agents will significantly drive stablecoin demand.

Back to the charts. ETH is currently at $1766, with a 4-hour RSI of 23 and a daily RSI of 18, indicating extreme oversold conditions. The funding rate is at 0.0077%, suggesting almost no one is using leverage. BTC's RSI is also at an extreme 15. Prices are taking a hit, but the data from the AI agent payment sector is trending in a positive direction.

WLD went against the trend today, rising 30%, benefiting from the AI narrative. ENA is up 17%, and funds are flowing back into the DeFi sector.

The 100 million transactions via x402 mark a watershed moment. Discussions about AI agent payments were previously just conceptual; on-chain data now proves that this system is genuinely being utilized. The quality migration from micropayments to larger transfers indicates this isn't just a speculative frenzy, but real use cases are developing.

The market may drop, but the narrative will not stop. Once the market stabilizes, the AI agent payment sector will be a key focus for funds. This is just a heat observation and should not be construed as investment advice.

BTC's daily RSI has hit 18; the last time it reached this number was in June 2022. Back then, BTC plummeted from $30k to $17k. Now, at $63,600, the price is nearly 13% away from the 200-day moving average at $73,200, and the fear factor is off the charts.

But there’s one key difference this time.

Today, the whole market is only slightly red, with WLD up 34%, ENA up 19%, and OPN up 73%. These aren’t small-cap memes; these are real tokens with genuine trading volume. The overall market is down 4.6%, yet some sectors are countering the trend with increased volume. This signals that capital hasn’t completely exited; it’s just a repositioning.

Looking at the funding rates, BTC is only at 0.0027%, and ETH is merely at 0.0077%. Such low rates indicate what? The drop isn’t due to leveraged longs getting wrecked; it’s selling pressure on the spot market. In other words, this is panic selling, not a cascade of liquidations. Panic selling can actually hit a bottom more easily than leveraged blow-ups because during the transfer of chips from weak hands to strong hands, the sell-side will naturally exhaust.

On the macro front, signals are also being released. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned during a Senate hearing today that the CLARITY Act could pass this summer. This act addresses the regulatory jurisdiction over securities and commodities, and once implemented, it would fully open up the compliance channels for institutional entry. Meanwhile, the U.S. government holds 328,372 BTC, worth about $21.5 billion. These coins were not purchased; they were seized, but the Secretary has clearly stated they are pushing for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Policy direction and market direction are at odds: bearish in the short term, but not pessimistic in the medium term.

Regarding ETH, $1,795 has already broken through the $1.8K support level that analysts were monitoring. Bitmine just bought $52 million worth of ETH last week, and CEO Tom Lee mentioned that the price hasn’t yet reflected Ethereum’s true value. Institutions are accumulating while retail investors are cutting losses; this kind of divergence is usually most evident at the bottom range.

Personally, I believe an RSI of 18 is indeed extreme; historically, every time it gets near this level, there’s a bounce. But a bounce doesn’t equal a reversal; the 200-day moving average at $73K is a clear resistance level. In the short term, watch for two signals: first, whether the daily RSI can recover from 18 to above 30 to confirm an oversold correction, and second, whether volume can increase during any bounce. If both conditions are met, it could signify a temporary bottom; if the bounce lacks volume, it’s just a technical pullback.

When fear sets in, taking a closer look at the structure is far more reliable than just following emotions.

Binance made two big moves today, completely opposite directions.

On one side, the NFT marketplace is officially shutting down, transferring management to self-custody wallets, giving users a 30-day migration window—must withdraw by July 3. NFTs that can be transferred will refund withdrawal fees (100,000 spots, 1 USDC per person), while non-transferable ones, like course NFTs, will only provide a PDF certificate of completion.

On the other hand, they signed a revenue-sharing agreement with Alpaca to handle tokenized stocks. Alpaca is a compliance broker-dealer infrastructure provider in the US, and Binance is using it to bring US stocks on-chain as tradeable assets. They just announced the launch of US stock trading features yesterday and today quickly added the underlying partner—talk about fast-paced.

The decline in NFTs has actually been on the horizon for a while. The floor price of CryptoPunks is 30.9 ETH, down 61% from the 2022 peak of 80.9 ETH. BAYC is even worse at 7.9 ETH, plunging 93% from 128 ETH. Kraken also shut its NFT marketplace back in February, and OpenSea stopped supporting BSC last year. Major exchanges are collectively pivoting towards tokenized assets, turning NFTs from the "next-gen internet" into a "first one to run wins" scenario.

Binance's bet on tokenization is crystal clear. The collaboration with Alpaca is just one part of it, alongside previous partnerships with Franklin Templeton and Ondo Finance for tokenized funds. Plus, with regulatory licenses covering various regions, they are building a complete RWA infrastructure. The goal is straightforward: to move traditional financial assets onto the blockchain for trading, earning not just transaction fees but also market-making and custody fees.

BNB dropped 7% today, worse than BTC's 3% decline. The 4-hour RSI is at 31, nearing oversold territory, while the daily RSI stands at 41, indicating weakness. The price has already fallen below the 20-day moving average of 659 and the 50-day moving average of 646, showing clear short-term pressure. However, the funding rate is only 0.0036%, suggesting this isn't a leveraged sell-off but more of an emotional dump.

The market is re-evaluating the value of exchanges—from the "biggest trading volume places" to "those that can bring traditional assets on-chain." Binance's choice is quite pragmatic, shedding the unprofitable burden of NFTs while doubling down on the promising new business of tokenized stocks. In the short term, BNB may continue to grind along with the broader market, but the platform's strategic shift is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

BTC has dropped to $65,385, the lowest in nine weeks. Today alone, it's down $4,500, marking the biggest single-day drop since February. But honestly, the situation with Iran is just a surface reason; the real culprit behind the price crash is leverage.

277,000 traders got liquidated in the last 24 hours, totaling $1.83 billion, with over 90% being long positions. This isn't a market wrecked by war; it's leverage that took itself out. The conflict merely triggered a chain reaction, wiping out those high-leverage longs one after another.

The ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have dragged on for two months, and last week, things suddenly escalated again. The U.S. military conducted self-defense strikes on Qeshm Island, while Iran fired five ballistic missiles towards Kuwait and Bahrain, all of which missed their targets. But the market's reaction was even more intense than the missiles themselves. On the same day, the U.S. Treasury added Iran's largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, along with three others, to the sanctions list, accusing them of helping the Revolutionary Guard move funds. This is already part of the "Economic Fury" operation, which has frozen nearly $1 billion in crypto assets since April.

On-chain data also supports the panic sentiment. BTC's 4-hour RSI has hit 26.4, which is in the extreme oversold zone. The MACD histogram is at -396.7, showing very strong bearish momentum. However, the funding rate is only 0.0052%, indicating that this drop isn't driven by leverage, but rather by spot selling pressure. This, in fact, means the structure hasn't been broken; the panic is driven by emotions.

ETH has dropped even harder, down 4.8% in 24 hours, with an RSI of 34.33 approaching oversold levels. The funding rate is 0.0099%, slightly higher than BTC but still moderate. Analysts from Bitrue say the real support lies between $64,000 and $65,000. If the geopolitical situation eases or the macro side rebounds, we might see a sharp uptick.

To be frank, the $18.3 billion in liquidations is indeed startling, but with 90% of it being long positions getting wiped, it shows the market was too crowded before. Clearing out the excess is actually a good thing, as it creates space for real buyers. The $65,000 mark is the average cost line for short-term holders; if it breaks, we enter panic territory, but it's also historically been a starting point for rebounds.

Going forward, we need to keep a close eye on two things: first, whether there are any substantial developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and second, if BTC can hold above $64,000. If it holds, this drop might actually become the bottom for the second half of the year.

Recently observed an interesting trend: new public chains are shifting towards stablecoin payments.

Movement announced today that they have secured licensed payment channel access in the US, Canada, and the EU, preparing to bridge the traditional banking system with stablecoin settlement networks, focusing on cross-border remittances and corporate fund management. Sounds grand, right? But let's first check the cost of this venture.

The MOVE token has plummeted from a peak market cap of $2.5 billion to just $54 million now, with a drop of over 97%. The foundation did manage to execute a buyback, repurchasing about 19% of the tokens previously allocated to investors, which is equivalent to 4.2% of the total supply. But to be honest, with this level of market cap shrinkage, the buyback feels more like a gesture than substantial support.

Interestingly, this isn’t an isolated case. Solana has clearly been pushing towards payments and remittances this year, Polygon is transitioning from Ethereum L2 scaling to stablecoin settlements, and Aptos, as a sibling in the Move language family, is also advocating for payment and consumer finance. The entire industry seems to have reached a consensus: the narrative of pure smart contract platforms is losing steam, and stablecoin payments are the real-world application scenario.

Data backs this up. DefiLlama shows that the total market cap of stablecoins has surpassed $32 billion, and the GENIUS Act passed last year established a federal framework for payment stablecoins. But on the flip side, a report from TRM Labs highlights that global crypto trading volume dropped by 11% year-on-year in Q1 of this year, indicating a cooling market.

Back to the charts, BTC is down about 4% today to around $67,000, and the overall market is under pressure. The technicals for MOVE are also weak, with a daily RSI of only 36, nearing the oversold territory. The funding rate is still positive at 0.013%, but the trading volume is just $2.5 million, raising liquidity concerns.

In my view, stablecoin payments are indeed one of the most likely directions for large-scale adoption in Web3, but the issue isn’t about the right direction; it’s about execution capability. Movement announcing payment channels only after a 97% drop from peak value indicates significant problems with the early narrative's execution. For projects undergoing such a transformation, both technicals and fundamentals need to improve simultaneously to signal a true turning point, and right now, I don’t see that happening.

Zama's 12.5 million USDC got frozen by the courts for three days, but it had nothing to do with them.

Here's the scoop: a project called Overnight Finance got into a dispute, and the court issued a freeze order. When Circle received it, they went ahead and froze all the USDC in Zama's smart contract. The reason? That disputed amount made up 99% of the total locked liquidity in the contract, and the plaintiff wanted a blanket freeze. Zama wasn't even a party in the dispute but got caught up in it.

The silver lining is that the court eventually decided the freeze was unreasonable, and after three days, they lifted it. But this incident exposed a real tech dilemma.

Zama uses fully homomorphic encryption tech, encrypting balances and amounts while keeping the sending and receiving addresses visible. In theory, they could freeze specific addresses without affecting the whole pool, but Circle didn’t have that tool at the time and had to freeze the entire contract. COO Jeremy Bradley put it bluntly: AMM, lending protocols, cross-chain bridges—any protocol holding USDC in the liquidity pool is just one court subpoena away from a freeze.

Zama reacted quickly. They announced an accelerated compliance roadmap: automatic execution of freeze orders from underlying asset issuers, setting up a compliance committee, and integrating trading monitoring tools. Bradley emphasized this isn’t a strategy shift; programmable compliance was always part of the design, but this incident made the rollout more urgent.

More crucially, Zama plans to launch their cUSDC product by the end of the month, with their treasury putting up 5 million USDC as the initial shield. Bradley noted that institutional interest has actually increased because the court's ruling proved that privacy protocols can operate within the existing legal framework.

ETH is currently at $1,877, with a 4-hour RSI of 32 just coming out of oversold territory, while the daily RSI is at an extremely low 25, with a funding rate of 0.002% indicating light leverage pressure. The market is in a pullback, but the technical validation in the privacy sector is progressing, which is a signal worth paying attention to.

Privacy and compliance aren’t an either-or situation; Zama used the court ruling to prove that the path of programmable compliance is viable. Whoever can simultaneously tackle privacy protection and regulatory responsiveness in the crypto world will secure their ticket for the next cycle.

Movement has just announced that they've secured licensed payment channels in the US, Canada, and the EU, officially pivoting from a Move-based public chain to stablecoin cross-border payments.

The news itself isn’t a shocker, but the details are worth a look. The Movement Foundation also bought back 19% of investor shares, which accounts for about 4.2% of the total supply. Meanwhile, the market cap of MOVE tokens has plummeted from a peak of $2.5 billion down to just $54 million, a staggering 98% drop. The buyback at this level indicates that the project team believes the price is severely undervalued, aiming to stabilize the fundamentals by reducing circulation.

However, Movement isn’t alone in this. Over the past few months, Solana, Polygon, and Aptos have all been leaning towards stablecoin payments. Solana started with DeFi and consumer applications and is now focusing on cross-border remittances; Polygon has shifted from just talking about scaling narratives to emphasizing stablecoin settlements; Aptos is also betting on payment and consumer finance. Almost all smart contract platforms are doing the same thing, driven by the GENIUS Act's implementation which has provided a federal compliance framework for stablecoins, finally offering a predictable regulatory path for the $320 billion stablecoin market.

But there’s a contradiction here. In Q1, global crypto trading volume fell by 11% year-on-year, and Movement has chosen this time to ramp up payment infrastructure, which in a way is betting that after the decline in trading demand, settlement demand will become the main activity on-chain. Logically, this makes sense, but whether a project with a $54 million market cap can handle the compliance costs and technical integrations of cross-border payments remains a question mark.

ETH is currently at $1854, with the 4-hour RSI at 19.89, indicating it's in extreme oversold territory, and the MACD bars at -14.02 are continuing to weaken. The funding rate is just 0.002%, and long leverage positions are under almost no pressure, which also suggests a lack of active buying in the market. The stablecoin sector is growing, but the value capture ability of the underlying public chains still needs time to be validated.

Today the whole market is laughing at BTC breaking below 67K, but there's someone quietly pumping.

$NEAR rebounded from yesterday's low of $2.48 to $2.75, a nearly 20% increase in 24 hours. Meanwhile, BTC dropped 6.3%, and the entire crypto market cap shrank by 3.7%. While the market is bleeding, NEAR is going against the tide.

Looking at the weekly chart makes it clearer. NEAR has quietly risen 225% since forming a bottom between $0.90–$1.10 in February this year. In 2021, this range bounced up with a 2375% increase, and in 2024, it bounced up by 900%. Each time, it starts from this position and ends at the resistance line of the downtrend. Now it's heading towards that line again.

The target range above is $3.40–$3.77, aligning perfectly with the 200-week EMA and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. From the current price, there’s still 25%–40% upside potential. But don’t rush in; the $2.61–$2.72 range is right at the 100-week EMA and the 0.236 Fibonacci. Only if it breaks out with volume can we say it’s truly stable.

The fundamentals are also supportive. The NEAR Intents cross-chain trading system has handled $19.69 billion in transaction volume, generating $32.64 million in fees. There’s also a dynamic sharding upgrade coming in June that will allow the network capacity to automatically scale with demand. Arthur Hayes recently stated that NEAR could rise 20 times in the long run.

However, the daily RSI has already hit 72.34, indicating it’s overbought. The 4-hour RSI at 60.56 is still healthy, and the funding rate is almost zero, showing this bounce isn’t just leveraged but driven by spot buying. But the overbought condition on the daily chart suggests a possible pullback in the short term, so be patient about chasing highs.

In such a poor market, the ability to gain strength indicates that funds are selectively allocating to specific assets. NEAR's AI + cross-chain narrative has become a safe haven in the current environment. Just remember, historically, after the daily RSI crosses 70, there’s often a 15%–20% pullback. It might be more cost-effective to wait for it to pull back near the 50-week moving average around $2 before buying in.

Binance just launched stock trading for US equities.

Today, I opened the app and found a new entry; after switching to the Traditional Chinese interface, there's a new 'Stocks' section under the 'Traditional Finance' category, allowing direct purchases of US stock spot. While BTC dropped nearly 6%, Binance is extending its reach into traditional finance.

The background of this move is quite interesting. The market just experienced a round of $176 billion in evaporation, triggering $1.5 billion in forced liquidations within two days. BTC plummeted from $71,000 down to $67,000, breaking that support for the first time in two months. Meanwhile, over in the stock market, the S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, and the correlation between the Russell 2000 small-cap index and BTC officially broke on May 21. Funds are flowing from the crypto market into AI stocks.

The strategy has paused the weekly BTC buys and is instead repurchasing convertible bonds. Jeff Dorman directly said this is a 'comprehensive failure of balance sheet management.' The ETF side isn't looking good either, with a net outflow of $2.1 billion between May 12 and 20. The futures premium has stayed below the 4% neutral threshold for three months, indicating weak demand for long leverage.

Binance's choice to launch US stock trading at this juncture is quite telling. While users are losing money in the crypto market, the platform has provided them with an alternative—rather than holding onto those plummeting altcoins, why not take a look at Apple and Nvidia? Robinhood has already benefited from this model, and now Binance is using the same logic to retain users.

BNB is also taking the hit. Today it fell 5.5%, with a 4-hour RSI of 38.64 already in the oversold zone, while the daily RSI at 49.04 is still in neutral territory. The funding rate of 0.0129% is relatively high, indicating crowded long leverage. If the market continues to decline, BNB might have further room to retrace.

However, looking at it from another angle, Binance launching a new business during a market downturn suggests that the platform's cash flow and expansion willingness are intact. While other exchanges are retracting their lines, Binance is pushing outward. This could be the most noteworthy signal in today's crash—not the price, but the strategy.

BTC dropped 6.42% to $67,020, with $1.25 billion in liquidations. But what I really want to talk about today isn't the price itself, but how this crash has split the analyst community in two.

On one side, Bitwise released a report claiming BTC is severely undervalued. Their reasoning is that global sovereign debt pressure is mounting, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield reaching 2.78% and the U.S. 30-year bond at 5.11%, hitting a new high since 2007. Japanese investors hold $1.2 trillion in U.S. bonds, but with domestic yields higher now, the appeal of overseas bonds is diminishing. They cited a model that suggests if BTC is truly seen as a hedge against sovereign default, its 'fair value' could be $224K.

On the other side, the prediction platform Kalshi has set a target price of $50,000. Rekt Capital bluntly stated on X: 'This is a bear market, and BTC is likely to drop below the $66,250 50-month EMA as it continues to slide.' They pointed out that investors are macro hedging, with funds flowing from BTC into stablecoins.

The most interesting move comes from Capital B. This French publicly traded company just submitted a shareholder proposal to authorize the issuance of $5.8 billion in new shares and debt instruments to buy BTC. Just two weeks ago, they spent $15.2 million to acquire 192 BTC at an average price of $78,948. Ironically, after announcing this news, their stock price dropped by 7%.

Meanwhile, DefiLlama data shows that the inflow for crypto vault companies fell to $180 million in May, a staggering 95% drop from April's $4.4 billion. Galaxy Digital previously stated that 'the raise-and-hold era is over,' and vault companies need to generate returns through staking, validator nodes, and other methods; simply hoarding coins is no longer sufficient.

The most fractured point in the market right now is: on a macro level, global sovereign debt is indeed worsening, which structurally supports BTC's narrative as a hedge; but in the short term, funds just aren't buying it. Retail investors are fleeing, vault companies are contracting, and liquidations are massive. BTC's 4-hour RSI has dropped to 12.94, and the daily RSI is at 22.32, indicating extreme overselling. The funding rate is still at 0.006%, which isn't panic-driven.

Both sides have a point. Bitwise's long-term logic holds up; sovereign debt is indeed a structural positive. But Rekt Capital's short-term hedging is also a reality, with the S&P 500 hitting new highs while BTC is dropping. This divergence can't last forever. The key will be whether the $66,250 50-month EMA can hold; if it does, we may see a pullback, but if it breaks, we could be headed towards $50K.

Today when I checked the charts, I saw BTC had dropped nearly 6%, hitting a low of $66,950. My first reaction was 'this is it.' But after taking a breath and looking at the data, things are more complex than they seem.

$1.25 billion in positions were liquidated within 24 hours, driving market sentiment into extreme fear. Interestingly, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today—BTC is down while the stock market is up; this divergence has been intensifying over the past few months. Rekt Capital pointed out that the 50-month EMA is around $66,250, which might be the next support line. They said, 'In the short term, there may be a reaction, but over the long haul, breaking below this EMA could lead to a continued bearish channel.'

But what really caught my attention was another number. BTC's 4-hour RSI is now at 13.34. The 14-period RSI has dipped below 20 only three times in the past three years, and each time, there was some degree of rebound within seven days. The last time the RSI was around 15 was in August 2024, and it surged 12% in the following two weeks.

Funding rates tell a story too. Currently, BTC and ETH's rates are below 0.01%, nearly zero. What does this mean? It’s not the leveraged longs getting wrecked—it’s spot selling. When leverage is low and a crash happens, it usually indicates panic selling driven by emotion rather than a structural collapse.

ETH isn't faring much better, with a 4-hour RSI of 26.79 nearing oversold territory. The MACD histogram has been negative but is narrowing. Prices are around $1,913, very close to the yearly lows. In contrast, some tokens are moving against the trend: ZEC +9%, ENA +7%, ONDO +6%, indicating funds are flowing into privacy protocols and DeFi infrastructure.

My take is this: the short-term outlook is indeed grim, with $66,250 being a key support level. If it breaks, a drop to the $60K range is not out of the question. But an RSI of 13.34 is historically a very strong reversal signal. The nearly zero funding rates indicate the market isn’t overly leveraged; this isn't a de-leveraging-driven crash, but one fueled by emotion.

Pits created by emotional selling typically recover faster than those created by leverage.

I’m not rushing to buy the dip, but there’s no need to panic either. I’ll wait for the RSI to rebound from 13 back above 30, with volume increasing, before considering any moves. When extreme fear hits, what’s needed most is not courage, but patience.

MoneyGram has launched the stablecoin MGUSD on Stellar, and this is bigger than it seems.

The remittance industry has been plagued by fees. According to the World Bank, sending $200 across borders typically incurs a fee of 6.36%, which means $12.72 just disappears. The BIS report also states that cross-border payments are "much more expensive, much slower, and much less transparent" than domestic payments. Now, MoneyGram is not satisfied with just being a channel; they're launching their own coin.

The infrastructure for MGUSD is quite impressive. The issuer is Bridge, which is the stablecoin platform under Stripe, and they received conditional approval from U.S. federal banking regulators back in February. The smart contracts for minting and burning use M0, and the wallet infrastructure is handed over to Fireblocks. This isn't a small team testing the waters; they're merging traditional finance with a complete on-chain infrastructure.

Interestingly, Western Union is doing something similar, partnering with Crossmint to launch the USDPT stablecoin on Solana. Both remittance giants are simultaneously moving on-chain, which isn't a coincidence; it reflects a critical point of industry consensus.

Now, looking at the market. XLM has risen by 14% today, moving against the overall market downturn. ETH is down by 2%, with a daily RSI of only 25.87, already in the oversold zone. ONDO is up by 7%, with a daily RSI of 50, which is neutral, and the MACD histogram has just turned positive.

The stablecoin market has grown so large that traditional payment companies have no choice but to get involved. DefiLlama data shows that on-chain stablecoin volumes continue to rise, while Stellar's transaction fee is just $0.000002. Using on-chain infrastructure for cross-border settlements offers a crushing cost advantage.

This coin launch isn't just MoneyGram's story; it's a turning point for the entire cross-border payment industry, shifting from "using blockchain for settlements" to "issuing coins for infrastructure." Moving forward, it will be worth watching whether Bridge can obtain a formal license and if more remittance companies will follow suit.

At 4:47 AM, Arkham data shows that Mt. Gox transferred 10,306 BTC from its cold wallet, valued at $739 million. This marks the first on-chain activity since March this year.

BTC is currently at $69,190, down 4.18% in the last 24 hours, sliding from $72,300. The 4-hour RSI is only 17.93, indicating it's in the extreme oversold zone. However, the funding rate is just 0.006%, suggesting this dip isn't due to a leverage blow-up, but rather actual selling pressure in the spot market.

There are two details worth noting about this Mt. Gox transfer. First, the BTC transferred is marked as unspent on Arkham, meaning it hasn’t moved from the new address yet and hasn't rushed into exchanges. This likely indicates it’s not an immediate sell-off, but rather a preparation for future distribution. Second, there was also a transfer of 116.3 BTC to a hot wallet marked as spent, which indicates that small portion has already been utilized.

Mt. Gox still holds 34,504 BTC, valued at $2.41 billion. They began repaying creditors through Kraken and Bitstamp in July last year, but the process has been slow, with the trustee extending the deadline from October 2023 to October 31, 2026, marking the third extension.

What’s the market most worried about? There’s concern that creditors, after waiting over a decade, might dump their BTC immediately upon receiving it. At the current price, if 10,306 BTC were to be sold all at once, it could significantly impact the market. Especially since BTC just broke below the psychological level of $70,000, fear sentiment is at extreme levels.

However, there’s a counter-signal. The $739 million transfer hasn’t flowed into exchanges, indicating that there are currently no signs of immediate selling. Coupled with the very low funding rate, the market isn't being amplified by leverage. An RSI of 17.93 does indicate overselling, and historically this level often accompanies a technical rebound.

ProCap Financial also sold 52 BTC on the same day to buy back stock, indicating that market sentiment is indeed under pressure. A previous strategy sold 32 BTC to preferred shareholders, which are small-scale operations, but collectively they suggest a tightening of the funding chain at the institutional level.

In my personal view, this Mt. Gox transfer is likely preparatory work before distribution, not a direct sell-off. However, market sentiment is extremely fragile right now, and any minor disturbance could be amplified. Key points to watch in the short term: will these 10,306 BTC flow to exchanges (Arkham is monitoring in real-time), and will the trustee issue a distribution announcement soon?

In this extreme oversold environment with an RSI of 17.93, a technical rebound could happen at any moment, but until the shadow of Mt. Gox fades, the strength of any rebound may be limited. Extreme fear is often not far from the bottom, but how far "not far" is, no one knows.