Don't rush to celebrate the bull market. The more I look at this BTC rally, the more it makes me laugh. The stronger it looks on the surface, the more it feels like one last hurrah—repeated attempts to break through 86K and 87K keep failing, shorts have been liquidated time and time again, and yet the price still hasn't really broken out.
Right now, everyone and their dog is calling for 90K or 100K. I'm looking at 50K. Not 80K, not 70K—straight to 50K.
The reason isn't the drop itself. It's that everyone thinks it'll bounce back after it drops. Once that consensus gets shattered, the panic selling won't give you a chance to get out gradually.
The script is simple: fail to break 87K → lose 86K → break below 80K → sentiment flips → search for a bottom all the way down through 70K and 60K. If it breaks straight through 90K, I'll be the first to shut up.
I’m aiming to turn 500U into 10,000U, and I’ve already made back the losses from the first two days. I’m not trading over the weekend—I’m going to slow things down for now.
I’m still leaning bearish on BTC and ETH. There’s just one reason: U.S. Treasury yields are too high, and they’re still climbing, which will put real pressure on major coins. My bet is that if Treasury yields keep rising, BTC and ETH could pull back somewhere in the 10% to 20%-plus range.
I currently have three short positions: BTC, ETH, and $ZEC . I’ll decide whether to close them after the outcome of the meeting on the 8th is announced. Inflation and whether rates will be raised both hinge on this.
Levels I’m watching: BTC support at 84,000, resistance above 87,000; ETH support around 2,660, resistance around 2,750.
Can $CORE still go up? Let’s be blunt: without real money flowing in, no matter how compelling the story is, it won’t matter.
Relying on the team to spin a narrative and make empty promises, hoping retail investors will chase the price and hold the bag—maybe that worked two years ago, but people have seen through it now.
The only way to push the price up is to pour real money into it. But if they were serious, they wouldn’t have waited until now.
Of course, it’s not completely hopeless. Now that empty promises aren’t working, they might actually spend a little to push the price up by 10 or 20 percent and get retail investors to believe one more time. But that kind of rise is fleeting—don’t mistake it for a trend.
There’s an on-chain signal worth noting: whales have stopped moving coins to exchanges.
This wave of transfers lasted for more than three months, starting in the summer. That’s twice as long as similar trends since 2023, and it didn’t end until late August. Since then, net flows have remained negative—which means big holders are no longer sending coins to exchanges.
That three-month-plus selling pressure channel has come to an end. There may still be some short-term volatility, but the medium-term supply dynamics are improving. Don’t let small-scale price swings scare you off; focus on whether net outflows continue.
You’ll need enough exposure and patience to catch what comes next.
$BTC I took a look around the livestreams: over 70% were bullish, 20% expected the market to move sideways, and hardly anyone was bearish. That kind of consensus is a signal in itself—the market rarely lets the majority make money comfortably. Yesterday’s strong bullish candle led quite a few people to go long, thinking it was a breakout from an ascending triangle. But top formations are often there to fool people: it held up before the 8 p.m. close, yet started plunging at noon—the timing is intriguing. My view hasn’t changed: the more obvious the bullish setup, the more cautious you should be. Don’t let one bullish candle change your whole outlook, and don’t add to your position just because most people are bullish. First see whether the key level holds, then act. #BTC #TradingInsights
The rebound is here, but it’s not yet a time when you can buy anything and expect it to rise. $FIL is now around 1.08, up about 3.6% in 24 hours, but it’s still slightly down over the week. Those waiting for a rise may sell as soon as they break even, so whether it can withstand that selling pressure matters more than how many points it gains today. $APT 0.81 is under a dollar and looks cheap, but a 10% drop doesn’t mean a smaller loss just because the coin’s price is low. Ask yourself whether you have a new reason to buy it, or whether you just think it used to be expensive and is cheap now. $OP 0.1335 is stuck between its highs and lows. Getting excited when it rises a little and changing your mind when it falls a little suggests you haven’t thought through your reasons yet. For now, I’m looking for confirmation and won’t keep changing direction in response to intraday fluctuations. #FIL #APT #OP
Got up in the middle of the night to use the bathroom, and while I was at it, checked my phone—why has Bitcoin gone up again?
It was still below 85,000 before I went to bed, and now it’s climbed back up. It really won’t let me get any sleep. As long as it holds above 85,200, the bullish trend is still intact, but no one can guarantee there won’t suddenly be a huge red candle in the middle of the night.
That’s trading for you: you can get the direction right, but the timing still keeps you up. Oh well, guess I’m not sleeping. I’ll watch the charts for a while. $BTC #BTC
During the day, Bitcoin $BTC slowly climbed higher, and after finally gaining a little over 1%, it gave it all back as soon as the U.S. stock market opened at night. It rose back up as smoothly as if it were drawing a door, then fell right back down just as smoothly.
On the 15-minute chart, the current price was dumped to 85209, and in one sharp drop it hit a low of 85130, wiping out all of the daytime gains. The moving averages are all pressing down overhead, and MACD bearish volume is still expanding, so the short-term picture is indeed ugly.
However, the rhythm brought by the U.S. stock market open is often just a liquidity sweep. This level is exactly the support area where the daytime rally began. If it can stop here, there is still room to play; if 85200 fails to hold, it will most likely test 84500.$BTC #BTC
$BTC Even though this is clearly an ascending triangle, I still haven't closed my short position. The reason is simple: this is a high-concentration trading zone. I was bearish last April, during the previous run, and figured price would surely reach the 85,000–88,000 zone. In the end, it fell before even touching 83,000. The structure is bullish now, but who knows if it’ll shoot straight up to 88,000 or even 90,000. Anyone with even a little technical knowledge knows there are plenty of trapped holders at this level. Do you think the whales don’t know that? What if they only push it a little above 87,000 before turning it around? The weekly KDJ is already at 90—just like ZEC near 1,650 last time. Back then, a bunch of people were calling for 1,800. And what happened? So I’m planning to hold for the medium to long term. #BTC
A whale's position list was just updated. At a glance, it's all short positions—a bona fide "commander of the short army." Unrealized gains: 100x cross-margin BTC short +558U (+43%), 100x isolated-margin BTC short +460U (+106%), 100x cross-margin ETH short +239U (+44%), for total unrealized gains of over 1,200U. Unrealized losses: 75x cross-margin SPCX short -347U (-320%), 40x cross-margin ZEC short -160U, 20x cross-margin OKB short -45U. Overall, the portfolio is barely holding onto unrealized gains—a little better than before, at least it hasn't been wiped out completely. #BTC #ETH #ZEC
$SAND Short signal flashes as smart-money longs see two-thirds of their profits evaporate in two days
$SAND has continued to weaken over the past two days, wiping out two-thirds of smart-money longs’ unrealized profits. Two days ago, they were sitting on 890,000 in unrealized gains; today, only 300,000 remain. The number of profitable longs has plunged from over 320 to fewer than 150.
There are now around 400 longs in the market, and more than 250 of them are underwater. Profits are getting thinner, more positions are getting trapped, and the bulls’ confidence has already been drained.
If the market takes another step down, what little profit remains will disappear. Longs trapped at higher levels will have no choice but to panic-sell, and their stop-loss orders will become the strongest fuel for a sell-off.
The bulls’ defenses are already on the verge of collapse. Get short before the trapped positions build up on a large scale.
BTC is finally reacting—this trade feels great to hold.
$BTC long position, entered at 85174.5, now at 86351.2, with an unrealized gain of 138.85%. The few days of waiting paid off; the market is finally moving.
I don’t plan to add to the position here. The profit is already substantial, and selling pressure could show up at any time as the price rises. I’ll move my stop up to breakeven and let the market take it from here. Staying calm matters more than anything.
If you missed the move, don’t rush. There’ll be more pullbacks and chances to get in—just be patient. Good markets always offer opportunities to get on board; what’s scarce is patience.
I haven’t had a chance to place trades properly these past couple of days. I’ve been busy attending a few weddings and helping friends with work, so I’ve completely lost my rhythm. I’ll catch up once I’m back to my usual workday routine.
$BTC The market is genuinely two-sided now, with the long-short ratio about even. I actually think it’s waiting for a decent rally; it wouldn’t be impossible to hit 90,000 before long.
$ZEC My position was too heavy before, but I’ve cut it down significantly and left plenty of room to add more. I feel much more at ease now.
$ETH I’m hoping it gets above 3,000, but I’m also hoping it drops back to 2,300, so I’m just sitting tight and waiting. People who can’t keep their patience often don’t make it through this stretch. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ETH #BTC
On-chain data shows that momentum had already weakened before the rebound to 87,000. Whales sold over 30,000 BTC during this period, with short-term support at 82,500.
ETF demand is also cooling, with weekly net inflows falling from $2.39 billion to around $51 million. Institutional purchases and redemptions have largely offset each other.
More interestingly, a 13-year-old wallet was activated and made a test transfer of 1,346 BTC, worth about $115 million. If it reaches an exchange, that means selling pressure.
With selling pressure piling on top of cooling ETF demand, I won’t chase prices here. I’ll wait for the daily chart to stabilize before weighing in.$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC #Cryptocurrency
Business at the hotels was booming over the National Day holiday, with more people getting married. I picked up some temporary work, standing in high heels for six or seven hours at a time. After one wedding banquet, my legs didn’t even feel like my own.
But the money I worked so hard to earn can disappear with a single one-minute candlestick in the market.
Sometimes I wonder why I’m still in this world. It’s because I’ve already put so much into it, and I don’t want to give up just like that. It’s okay if I don’t make much. At least I still have some capital and time. Taking it slowly is better than giving up completely.
People who are willing to work hard in life may do just fine in the market, too. No one can predict where the market will go, but perseverance itself means something.
Bitcoin $BTC started rallying again at the open. I’ve been stuck in this trade for a long time, and it’s been truly agonizing. I’ve held on for over ten days, and I don’t even dare open a position in the U.S. stocks I like—one more position means one more risk. Now that it won’t fall any further at this level, I’m even more on edge. After holding a trade for so long, I’ve realized that technical analysis is secondary. The first thing to wear down is your mental state. I’ve set myself a rule: if I can break even, I’m out. It’s not that I lack confidence—I just don’t want one position dictating all my decisions anymore. Position sizing and mindset will always matter more than guessing the direction. #BTC #TradingMindset
Bitcoin suddenly surged on Monday, leaving many people watching the charts in discomfort—with short positions in hand. BTC slowly climbed back to around 87,000, with the 15-minute candlesticks moving steadily upward. After the Nonfarm Payrolls data came out, the market broke through a key level before quickly pulling back. Liquidations over 24 hours briefly exceeded $570 million, wiping out traders on both sides. September job growth came in well below expectations, Treasury yields fell, and expectations for rate cuts were pushed back. Regulatory efforts are also moving forward: proposed new custody rules would ease restrictions on institutions holding crypto assets. What hurts most in trading isn’t the market—it’s emotions getting the better of you. A slow decline on shrinking volume often isn’t a bottom, and trading against the trend on emotion can easily get you repeatedly wiped out. #BTC #Nonfarm
Two upgrade test milestones are worth watching tomorrow, but a testnet is not the same as a mainnet launch. $ETH
Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade will activate on the Sepolia testnet, involving ePBS, BAL, and gas adjustments. What really matters isn’t whether the price goes up or down, but whether testing goes smoothly and validators are compatible.
The other is $ZEC , with NU7 entering a critical testing phase. Block times will be cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, with mainnet expectations to follow. Look at the two coins separately: one for its technology, the other for expectations.
The most interesting thing in the community lately isn’t the market—it’s the mindset of a short seller. $BTC
He’s been holding his short for ten days and is sitting on a sizable unrealized loss. He says these have been the hardest eight days to get through. Every time the price surges toward $87,000, he panics the most, because his liquidation price is just above $90,000. But he still insists on staying bearish: there’s limited room to go up and more room for a pullback, and as long as he doesn’t close the position, it’s not a real loss.
Whether he’s right or not, his words get to the heart of what it means to stubbornly hold a losing position: many people aren’t really trying to read the market—they’re just refusing to give in to their own position.
Bitcoin is stuck at 86,000. My take: this isn’t the time to chase longs—it’s time to wait for confirmation.
There’s a large sell wall weighing on the 85,000–85,500 area above, making it the key resistance right now. The daily MACD histogram has returned to zero, and momentum has temporarily run out. But funding rates are still negative, meaning shorts are paying a premium; the buy/sell volume ratio is 1.44, with buyers in control. Bulls haven’t taken on excessive leverage—this structure is healthier than it looks on the surface.
Strategy: In the short term, watch 84,372 and reduce exposure or stay on the sidelines. A decisive breakout above 86,995 on strong volume, followed by holding that level, would be the signal to add to longs.
In a nutshell, 84,000–87,000 is the main battleground. Follow whichever way it breaks; don’t try to predict it.
What’s your position size right now? Long or short? #BTC #MarketAnalysis