大老师Bugsbunny

Rubin rumors delayed again, which is a nightmare for the semiconductor industry

1. CPO industry chain becomes harder to realize in the near term (optical)
2. HBM demand declines/reduces (important)
3. Liquid cooling/power supply demand pushed back
4. AMD gains a competitive window to catch up
5. The lifecycle of the Blackwell/Rubin base versions will be extended

#海力士

See you at 21:30 tonight

The great final dip and the great offensive

AMD
We’re now entering a relatively critical window. (Prompt Testing)

From the options flow, the overall capital sentiment is very Bullish, leaning toward betting on a subsequent breakout.

On the technical side, AMD isn’t far from the key support zone right now.
Short-term support is around $545, and the Put Wall is near $530.
This means there’s a fairly clear risk level to watch on the downside, while the current candlestick structure is also showing a setup for an upside breakout.

But you can’t just look at the upside—there’s also a downside point here:
Judging by analysts’ target prices, AMD’s current price is already noticeably trading ahead of what most institutions expect.
In other words, the stock has already priced in a good amount of optimism early, and it will need new catalysts to keep the momentum going.

——————————

The upcoming positive catalysts are mainly focused in a few areas:

1. AMD has supported the Trump account; there’s a possibility it could be singled out by Trump later—whether through being mentioned, thanked, or publicly called out with a “buy/signal.” Political traffic like this could bring additional buying demand.

2. The market is re-pricing the likelihood of AMD gaining more share in the GPU market in the second half of the year. As long as the shipment schedule for the MI series continues to deliver, AMD will keep being placed into the trading framework of “AI GPU chasers.”

3. The acquisition of MEXT brings a memory-optimization narrative. The market will look at whether it can help AMD further improve AI training/inference efficiency, thereby expanding the imagination space around competing with NVIDIA.

4. July 22–23: AMD Advancing AI 2026 is an important PR window, and the market may expect information related to the MI500 series to be released.

5. In the second half, the real shipments of MI450 / Helios are the bigger fundamental milestone.
If shipments, customers, performance, and supply-chain feedback can continue to validate, AMD’s AI narrative can move from an “expectations trade” into an “execution/fulfillment trade.”

——————————

So right now, AMD’s trading setup looks pretty clear:

Short term: a breakout,
Medium term: AI PR and MI series shipments,
Risks: valuation already running ahead of analysts’ target prices.

The most important thing here isn’t whether AMD has positive news—it’s whether the subsequent positive catalysts can be strong enough to keep the market upgrading its expectations.

$AMDB

Today's NFP will be the most important data in the recent period

Basically, it will set the tone for the market's trend after the National Day holiday

#比特币经历2022年来最差上半年

ADP data below expectations

Good news!

Rate cut!

up!

#原油价格下跌

As the index rebalancing ends (closing at 6/30)

I filtered a few targets worth paying attention to

$MU
$SNDK
$WDC
$AMZN
$BE
$CRDO
$IREN

#美伊同意停止互相攻击

Tuesday will be the final segment of rebalancing

This week’s
agile trading
could be

Buy strong stocks on Monday and Tuesday and hold them at the base

Sell before the NFP result at 20:30 on Thursday

Ideally, sell before the close on Wednesday

#国际油价上涨

MSTR has become a cryptocurrency trading company. Thank you, everyone

——————

MicroStrategy has directly received approval to set up a Bitcoin cash-out plan

Going forward, the company may periodically sell Bitcoin:

- to supplement the company’s U.S. dollar reserves
- to pay preferred stock dividends and interest expenses
- to provide funding for the repurchase of Class A common stock

——————

20:02:26
Strategy (MSTR.O) surged rapidly before the market open, now up more than 4%.
20:02:05
Strategy (MSTR.O) announced a stock repurchase plan to repurchase up to $1 billion of Class A common stock.

#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC