计然

November 4 market roundup: $BTC closed at 80,504, up 3.94%. It first fell to 75,736 intraday, just about 285 below Strategy’s average cost of 75,451, then surged to 81,196 in the evening; it has now closed below the 82,563 range floor for 14 consecutive days. Short positions worth about $225 million were liquidated, more than the $169 million in long liquidations. Brent crude fell 9% in a day to 94.8, while gold rose 3.2%.

【Highlights】Open interest in perpetual futures fell by 2,487 coins. About $109 million in short positions were liquidated during the hour starting at 23:00 Beijing time, so this rally was mainly driven by short covering. The Fear & Greed Index rebounded from 34 to 50. Democrats won both chambers in the U.S. midterm elections, and the odds of a rate hike in December rose again to about 81%. As for the Binance hack, the new reserve snapshot covers 44 tokens (up from 10 last time), and the zero-knowledge proof is expected on November 6. The hacker has transferred out all approximately 970,000 SOL; half of the Aave position held by one ETH address was liquidated. Outlook: first, watch whether it can close above the 82,563 range floor.

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#币安 #BTC

【Possible state-backed buying: Broad-market A-share ETFs saw about ¥90 billion in inflows over two days; large caps were supported on Nov. 3, then funds shifted to small and mid caps on Nov. 4】

Based on closing prices, the increase in units of seven major broad-market ETFs listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Nov. 3 and 4 amounted to about ¥90 billion in total. The fund flows may be related to state-backed investors, though there has been no official confirmation.

【Nov. 3: Buying large caps as they fell】
- The Shanghai Composite fell 0.82%, while units of large-cap ETFs increased
- The CSI 300 ETF saw an increase of about ¥13 billion, and the STAR 50 ETF about ¥11.1 billion
- The SSE 50 ETF saw an increase of about ¥10.4 billion, with its units rising 27.9% in one day

【Nov. 4: Shifting to small and mid caps as they rose】
- Shanghai Composite +2.16%, ChiNext Index +6.40%, STAR 50 +9.92%, SSE 50 +1.45%
- Units of the CSI 1000 ETF rose 16.8% in one day (about ¥7.5 billion), while the CSI 500 ETF rose 13.2% (about ¥7.7 billion)
- Units of the SSE 50 ETF, meanwhile, fell 0.8%

On Nov. 2, a symposium involving the People's Bank of China and two other departments made the relending program for share buybacks and increases in holdings a long-term policy, and cut the interest rate from 1.25% to 1%.

At the close on Nov. 3, the CSI 300 was down about 21% from its June high, while the STAR 50 had fallen nearly 50%. After possible state-backed buying, the STAR 50 rebounded 9.92% on Nov. 4. In the U.S. market, $KSTRB tracks it. Coincidentally, $BTC also surged on Nov. 4, briefly reaching 81,196 intraday, up about 4.8% from the open. Do you think a recovery is on the way?

#A-shares

Just now: The Binance hacker has sold all 970,000 SOL! Will XRP be next?

The approximately 970,000 SOL stolen from Binance are worth about $90 million at current prices. At 18:52 Beijing time on November 4, the hacker’s main wallet balance was 0.07 SOL.

Since November 3, $SOL has risen from 91.98 to 93.8 without being dumped. The hacker’s 18,270 BTC, approximately 550,000 ETH, and 233 million XRP remain untouched.

#币安 #SOL

【Has all the bad news been priced in? Is AMD ready to take off? Election night will tell!】

$AMDB fell about 19% in the week before its earnings report. Revenue came in at $13.4 billion, up 45% year over year, and Q4 guidance was up 27% quarter over quarter. Shares rose about 5% after hours. $SMCIB reported revenue of $19.9 billion and raised its full-year guidance, but gross margin fell to 12.7%. The market opens at 10:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 4—then we’ll see. Do you think this drop is an opportunity?

#美股 #AI

November 3 market roundup: $BTC closed at 77,454, up 0.83%, marking the 13th consecutive day below the 82,563 range floor; South Korean and Taiwanese markets both fell 3.59%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.63%; the probability of a December rate hike climbed to around 77%

[Highlights] On the Binance hack, Binance released preliminary findings on November 3: approximately $6.34 billion was affected, and about $2.85 billion has been frozen or intercepted. It began with a fake job interview in which the hacker impersonated a recruiter. On-chain reserve addresses that can be independently verified increased by about $3.7 billion over roughly 24 hours, including approximately 11,600 BTC and $2.6 billion in stablecoins, as funds began flowing back. The hacker’s second SOL wallet was used, with 240,000 SOL moved into the main wallet; three addresses saw net outflows of about 366,000 SOL in a day. SOL still closed up 0.9%. The hacker has not touched any of the BTC. Assessment: With funds flowing back and perpetual open interest slightly lower, selling pressure is easing. First, watch whether the price can break above the November 3 high of 78,063.

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#币安 #BTC

Stocks with weak cash flow got hammered, and so did those with strong cash flow: After Apple and Palantir earnings, what does the market really want?

On October 29–30, Google and Amazon reported negative quarterly free cash flow, and their stocks got hammered. On November 2, Apple and Palantir both posted strong cash flow, yet their stocks still fell.

- Apple ($AAPLB ): Revenue of $114.48 billion, up 12% year over year; full-year operating cash flow of $145.1 billion. Shares fell 1.8% during regular trading and another roughly 2.8% after hours.
- Palantir ($PLTRB ): Revenue of $2.31 billion, up 96% year over year; adjusted free cash flow margin of 53%. Shares fell 3.1% during regular trading and another roughly 3.0% after hours.

Two details are worth noting:
- Apple's capital expenditures for the full year fell 29%, while R&D rose 32%. The company is relying more on R&D and third-party computing power for AI, rather than joining the big tech firms in building out data centers.
- Palantir's revenue rose 96%, but the total value of newly signed contracts increased only 6%; revenue is growing faster than new contracts.

Another way to read this: The entire Nasdaq is being repriced lower. QQQ was down 6.1% on November 2 compared with October 28. If even better-than-expected results can't lift stocks, is the AI bubble deflating, or is the whole market cooling off?

#美股 #AI

The results of the U.S. midterm elections come out tomorrow. Prediction markets are already pricing in a 75% chance that Democrats will sweep both chambers, with the House looking all but certain at 93%. If things go as expected, the market probably won’t react much; the real action is in the roughly one-in-four chance of a surprise: Republicans holding on to the Senate. Do you think there’ll be an upset? What happens next if Democrats win both chambers as expected?

A few things are likely:
- The House will start investigating the Trump administration and subpoena officials, significantly slowing the pace of policymaking.
- Legislation on issues like tax cuts and tariffs will have a hard time passing Congress, leaving the administration to rely more on executive orders.
- Congress could use war powers and funding restrictions to limit military action against Iran and put pressure on ceasefire talks. On November 2, the U.S. and Iran had just signaled a willingness to negotiate, and Brent crude fell about 7% that day.
- Face-offs between the White House and Congress will become more frequent. The current stopgap funding bill expires on December 11, and Kalshi puts the odds of a government shutdown on December 12 at about 34%. After Democrats won the House in 2018, the U.S. went straight into the longest shutdown in its history, lasting 35 days. In 2019, the House also impeached Trump, but the Senate did not convict him, so he remained in office.
- The clashes will likely play out publicly on social media. During those two years, the market was often swayed by a single post, so short-term volatility in U.S. stocks and $BTC is likely to increase after the election.
- The crypto market structure bill (CLARITY), which stalled in the Senate in September, will have only the remaining weeks of the year after the election. If it doesn’t pass, the new Congress will have to start from scratch next year.

#CountdownToTheUSMidterms: Is the window for trading U.S. stocks now open?

The 18,270 $BTC in the Binance hacker’s hands haven’t moved at all since they landed in the account. Where did BTC stolen in the past end up?

These BTC were stolen on October 29, 2026. The FBI has named North Korea’s TraderTraitor and disclosed the 19 addresses holding these BTC.

Silk Road (stolen in September 2012): About 50,000 BTC. The hacker hid them for about 9 years. In November 2021, the BTC were seized from a popcorn tin in a bathroom cabinet and a safe buried underground.

Bitfinex (stolen in August 2016): 119,800 BTC. Only about 25,000 were laundered over 5 years; the remaining 94,000-plus were seized by the U.S. Department of Justice in February 2022.

Binance (stolen in May 2019): 7,000 BTC were transferred in a single transaction from a hot wallet. Binance reimbursed users in full through SAFU, and there are no official records tracking where the BTC went afterward.

DMM (stolen in May 2024): 4,502.9 BTC. Japanese and U.S. law enforcement agencies named North Korea’s TraderTraitor, but there are no complete official records of what happened to the BTC afterward.

Bybit (stolen in February 2025): About 400,000 ETH were stolen. The FBI says some of them were converted to BTC and spread across thousands of addresses.

Historically, most large-scale BTC thefts haven’t been followed by a quick sell-off. Instead, the funds are laundered gradually, and many are eventually seized. Which path will these 18,000 BTC take? One imaginative suggestion from a netizen: the hacker could destroy the BTC, then go big on long positions in Bitcoin and make a killing! Wouldn’t that be faster and safer than money laundering? 😂 Do you think it’s feasible?

#币安 #BTC

November 2 market overview: $BTC closed at 76,816, down 1.96%, and has now closed below the 82,563 floor for 12 consecutive days, leaving it only about 1.8% above Strategy’s average cost of 75,451; about $148 million in long positions were liquidated, 33 of the 34 major altcoins fell, and only TRX rose, gaining 2%; Brent crude fell from 113 on October 30 to 104

【Key points】Open interest in perpetual futures rose by 3,762 coins instead of falling during the downturn, and the long/short ratio climbed to 2.5. Longs are adding to their positions as prices fall, which is the biggest risk right now. The probability of a rate hike in December has risen to about 75%. Whether the sharp drop in oil prices can curb inflation expectations will depend on the November 6 jobs report and the November 10 CPI release. Regarding the Binance hack, proof of reserves has been published and about 95% of the funds have been replenished. More network withdrawals will reopen on November 3, and a new snapshot will be taken on November 4. The hacker's BTC and ETH have not moved, while about 55,000 SOL flowed out in a day. Outlook: First watch the 30-day low of 76,326, then see whether Strategy’s average cost of 75,451 holds.

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#币安 #BTC

Binance opened withdrawals 40 hours ago. About $10 billion has been withdrawn on-chain, and withdrawals are slowing! $BTC 2.5 ten-thousand coins, $ETH 24 ten-thousand coins, nearly $7 billion in stablecoins, and about 650,000 BTC are still sitting in Binance’s reserve addresses. Is the worst over?

#币安 #Withdrawals

90% of the USDD redemption pool drained in 8 hours!

【What happened】Beijing time, November 2
- 14:11 An address (TT2T…) identified by a third party as belonging to Justin Sun withdrew 50 million USDT from the redemption pool in exchange for 50 million USDD
- 17:07–17:29 The same address withdrew another 80 million, including 60 million USDD borrowed on the spot by collateralizing 580 million $TRX
- After passing through two intermediate addresses, about 138 million USDT was deposited into Binance
- After 18:00, a group of familiar big holders continued redeeming, at about 10 million every half hour

【Current status】
- USDT in the redemption pool: about 106 million at 14:00 → about 8.86 million at 18:45
- USDD supply: 1.192 billion → 1.125 billion
- USDD held by that address: about 100 million on October 28 → about 950,000 now
- Huobi USDD/USDT is still at 1.0000

Now that the pool is nearly empty, anyone wanting to exchange back into USDT will have to wait for the protocol to replenish it or sell on the secondary market. 138 million USDT went into Binance—is Sun up to something again? 🤔

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$BTC #币安 #USDD

The Binance hacker’s 233 million $XRP (about $290 million) has started moving! Split across 7 new addresses in 13 minutes. There are still about 920,000 (about $87 million) on the $SOL side. Unable to swap it for BTC, they’re laundering it by trading back and forth on Jupiter. Since 04:49Z on the 2nd, about 35,000 have been sold for roughly $3.3 million USDC. TRX is all sold—will XRP or SOL be dumped next?

#币安 #XRP

November 1 Market Overview: Binance to gradually resume withdrawals on 15 networks, according to Update #4 ; $BTC closed at 78,354, up 1.0%, marking the 11th consecutive day closing below the 82,563 range floor; after selling all its TRX, the hacker switched to $SOL , swapping just 1.5% of the 956,000 tokens; TRX rebounded 3.1%, while LSK fell 17.4%

【Highlights】About $5.5 billion was withdrawn on-chain across 12 networks throughout the day (not net of deposits; see Figure 3 for each network). The Ethereum network led with about $2.76 billion, followed by the Bitcoin network with 17,107 BTC. The next milestone is whether the full zero-knowledge proof of reserves can be released on schedule on November 3. The hacker's 18,000 BTC match 19 addresses disclosed by the FBI, and the 233 million XRP have also remained untouched. The SOL was bridged via Relay and swapped for only about 13 BTC; activity largely stalled after 00:00 on the 2nd, Beijing time. BTC holdings fell by 1,684, with leverage edging down. Outlook: Before the proof of reserves is implemented, a return to 82,563 for BTC seems unlikely; first, watch whether the 30-day low of 76,326 holds.

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#币安 #BTC

The Binance hacker still has 960,000 $SOL . They’ve been at it for 14 hours since last night and have only managed to swap out 1.5% (about $1.33 million)!!! They got back around 13 $BTC . Is it really that hard to cross-chain swap SOL for BTC? How will North Korea punish a hacker who’s not getting the job done—whip them? 😂

#币安 #SOL

Binance withdrawals were open for 16 hours, and about $5.4 billion was withdrawn on-chain! 22,522 BTC and 134,000 ETH flowed out of Binance.

【How much was withdrawn from each chain】
From 14:00 on Nov. 1 to 06:00 on Nov. 2 Beijing time, on-chain transaction-by-transaction data shows the amounts sent by Binance’s new hot wallets to external addresses:
- About $2.70 billion on the Ethereum network (134,000 ETH + $1.73 billion USDT + $670 million USDC); stablecoins made up the bulk
- 22,522 on the $BTC network, worth about $1.75 billion
- About $420 million on BSC, $360 million on Tron, and $100 million on Solana; the other 7 chains totaled about $130 million (as of 00:00 on Nov. 2)

【Official figures】
- As of 23:30 on Nov. 1, $4.649 billion in withdrawals and $1.01 billion in deposits, for net outflows of about $3.64 billion
- 2.1% of Binance’s $171 billion in total assets
- All 15 networks in Phase 1 were fully restored between 14:00 and 20:36

【How to interpret this】
Withdrawals were heaviest in the first two hours. By the early morning, Ethereum network withdrawals were down to just $10–20 million every half hour; BTC’s price remained range-bound between $77,600 and $78,200 the entire time. The $5.4 billion is the gross amount withdrawn and doesn’t subtract deposits, so it’s higher than the official net outflow.

Of the $5.4 billion withdrawn, how much do you think will be deposited back?

Follow me as I continue tracking withdrawal outflows and hacker addresses.

#币安 #withdrawals

Breaking: After nearly finishing the sell-off of $TRX from the Binance hack, the hacker has started converting $SOL into BTC!

【TRX: Sold out】
- The wallet selling off 638 million tokens was emptied at 13:33 Beijing time on November 1, after 43 hours; at least 80% of the 685 million tokens available for moving have been sold. About 130 million were converted directly to ETH via THORChain, while the rest were first sold for USDT on DEXs. Around 6.5 million tokens are still directly visible on-chain.

【SOL: Movement begins】
- The stolen 970,000 SOL (worth about $93 million) had been inactive for two days before transfers began at 17:38 Beijing time on November 1.
- At 17:39 Beijing time, half of it—485,270 tokens—was transferred to a new address.
- Starting at 18:09 Beijing time, another stream split off 300 and 398 tokens, each sent through the Relay cross-chain bridge. At 18:18 Beijing time, 1.02 BTC arrived on the Bitcoin network.
- At 18:38, another 4,190 tokens were sent out, and are currently being split into batches of 500.
- The BTC received in exchange is sitting at bc1q8xna… and has not moved at all.

【What to make of it】
The method resembles the final batch of TRX: try a few small transfers first, then scale up once they work. So far, about 1 BTC has been converted from the 970,000 SOL, suggesting the hacker is still testing the waters. The hacker's 233 million XRP and 18,270 BTC remain untouched.

TRX was converted to ETH, SOL to BTC, while the 18,270 BTC in the hacker's possession has stayed untouched. Do you think the hacker is accumulating BTC, or waiting for the right moment to cash out?

Follow me for continued monitoring of the hacker's addresses.

#币安 #SOL

Three hours after Binance resumed withdrawals, users had withdrawn about $2.2 billion! Withdrawals surged at first, then slowed. As of 17:00 Beijing time, there were no signs of a bank run.

The BTC network reopened at 14:04 Beijing time. Over 3 hours, 10,383 $BTC were sent out in 185 transactions, worth about $810 million. 6,000 coins were released in the first hour, followed by 800–1,700 every half hour.

The Ethereum network reopened at 15:49 Beijing time. Over 74 minutes, 51,932 $ETH , 958 million USDT, and 297 million USDC were sent out in 15,351 transactions, worth about $1.37 billion, with stablecoins accounting for the bulk.

BSC reopened at 15:49 Beijing time. Over 45 minutes, about 19,000 BNB and 9.5 million stablecoins were sent out, worth about $23 million, mostly in small retail transactions.

The TRX network has not yet reopened. Four new hot wallets each hold 10 million TRX and 5 million USDT.

Binance topped up these hot wallets with 13,401 BTC, 104,000 ETH, and 39,000 BNB.

BTC is trading at 78,230, its highest level since the October 30 theft. The price gap between Coinbase and Binance is 0.2%, and TRX's discount across exchanges has disappeared.

After three days of backlogged withdrawal requests were processed, the pace surged at first and then slowed. If a bank run were to occur, watch for BNB falling on its own, stablecoins trading at a discount on the platform, or other exchanges trading at a premium of more than 1% to Binance. As of 17:00 Beijing time, none of these signs had appeared.

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#币安 #Withdrawal

Binance opened withdrawals on the $BTC network for 2 hours, with actual outflows of 7,731 coins across 135 transactions, worth about $600 million! The pace was steady, with no signs of a bank run.

【How BTC withdrawals unfolded】
Binance opened a new hot wallet, bc1qhp7n555…, for these withdrawals. Its cold wallet replenished it with 11,401 BTC in several batches. Here’s an on-chain tally of the amounts sent to external addresses, transaction by transaction (Beijing time):

- Around 13:00: 100 BTC sent as a test
- 14:00–14:30: 2,956 BTC, 34 transactions
- 14:30–15:00: 3,021 BTC, 45 transactions
- 15:00–15:30: 847 BTC, 28 transactions
- 15:30–16:00: 807 BTC, 27 transactions

About 6,000 BTC was sent in the first hour, as withdrawal requests that had accumulated during the three-day suspension were released in a batch. After that, the rate held steady at around 800 BTC every half hour. Withdrawals were processed in batches, with up to 100 recipient addresses per transaction and amounts ranging from 0.01 to 100 BTC each. At 16:00, around 20 transactions were still awaiting confirmation.

【Other chains】
- From 15:49, withdrawals also opened for ETH, USDT, and USDC on Ethereum, and $BNB , USDT, and USDC on BSC
- Binance had prepared 54,000 ETH from its cold wallet. Ten new withdrawal addresses were each pre-funded with 1,000 ETH, but external outflows were still close to zero before 16:00
- On Tron, 50 million TRX and 200 million USDT were prepared at 15:27 and distributed across four new addresses, ready to go; the TRX chain had not yet opened
- Three of the 15 networks in the first phase are now open, with the rest to follow in stages

【Why there are no signs of a bank run】
- The 7,731 BTC withdrawn is less than 2% of the total BTC held in Binance’s Proof of Reserves (hundreds of thousands of coins); one hot-wallet refill was enough to cover two hours of withdrawals
- No BTC was deposited into this hot wallet by users; these were purely withdrawals, but the volume had already declined after the first hour
- No price reaction: BTC hovered around 78,000 all day, the Coinbase-Binance price spread was only 0.2%, and the discount on Binance’s TRX price relative to OKX had already disappeared
- What a real bank run looks like: BNB falling on its own, stablecoins trading at a discount on the platform, and other exchanges showing a premium of over 1% against Binance. None of these occurred

【How to read this】
The resumption of withdrawals removes the worst-case scenario of “Binance running into trouble”; it doesn’t create new buying demand. The hack accounted for only about 4% of the decline, but BTC had already been trending down before the hack and has now closed below the 82,563 range floor for 10 consecutive days. Open perpetual positions are actually 2% higher than before the incident, so leverage hasn’t been flushed out. My read: today’s withdrawal data supports a recovery for BTC between 78,000 and 80,000. To reclaim 82,563, watch U.S. stocks on Monday and the November 3 Proof of Reserves.

Follow me for continued updates on withdrawal outflows and hacker addresses.

#币安 #withdrawals

Does this Binance hacker think the price of $TRX is too low? They’re rapidly dumping on DEX while also coming to Binance spot to give TRX a boost? 😂

October 31 market roundup: Binance says 90% of the stolen assets have been replenished; SAFU allocates 7,500 BTC; withdrawals will resume as planned on November 1. $BTC closed at 77,582, up 0.3%, and has closed below the 82,563 range floor for 10 consecutive days. The hacker has sold more than 60% of their TRX; $TRX fell another 7.1%, and SOPH dropped 34%.

【Key points】The biggest variable today is whether withdrawals resume on schedule. Officials have only said November 1, without giving a specific time; a complete zero-knowledge proof of reserves is expected on November 3. The hacker has sold more than 60% of their TRX, worth about $130 million. Around 270 million TRX, worth about $81 million, remain unsold. Since 20:23 Beijing time on the 31st, sales have no longer been routed through THORChain and are instead taking place on DEXs. Once the TRX is sold, the 233 million XRP and 18,000 BTC could be the next focus. BTC’s intraday range was under 1%, and holdings rose by another 620 BTC; leverage has not been flushed out. Assessment: If withdrawals resume without triggering a run, BTC may have a chance to return to 82,563. Until then, watch whether it can hold the 30-day low of 76,326.

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