雄叔UP说实话

Yesterday, on September 24, 2026, LSK, ACE, XAU, XRP, SOL, ONG, ZEC, ONDO, AAVE, SUI, ENA, LTC, ETH, and BTC—43 profitable strategies were executed. Behind this string of names are the few hours I spent watching the chart from 2 a.m. until the morning session. When the market kept pulling back and forth, I didn’t act hastily. Instead, I re-labeled every support and resistance, broke down the volume/structure to see clearly, and confirmed which were real breakouts and which were just fake moves. Only after the signals landed did I roll the strategies out one by one.

To be honest, getting people to “eat meat” isn’t something you can accomplish just by shouting loudly. It takes detailed review, strict risk control, and steady entries. What I do every day is actually quite monotonous. At night I write strategies while staring at the candlesticks; in the morning I check them again. If I’m wrong, I admit it; if I’m right, I don’t overhype it. The 43 profitable strategies being realized isn’t luck—it’s the result of having calculated the risk-to-reward ratio clearly the night before.

Someone asked me why I always post things in the middle of the night. It’s because the market doesn’t sleep, and I can’t either. All those nights I pushed through eventually became numbers in the account—and they also became the line you all sent me: “I followed along.”

Uncle Xiong doesn’t do flashy performances here. Only pre-market preparation and post-market review. Follow me—not to see what I’m calling out, but so that at key points, someone can help you sort out the logic. In the next leg of the market, I’ll keep watching, keep writing, and keep delivering that bite of meat to your hands—steadily.

#LSK

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Honestly, don’t let someone else steer you off track—ignition is the main line. In this wave that surged and then pulled back—$ETH —the rhythm is actually pretty straightforward already. The upper pressure zone keeps being tested but can’t get through. And volume is weakening each time. This isn’t building momentum; it’s a signal that buy pressure can’t hold. Looking at the four-hour structure: after that high-volume bullish candle near the previous high, the following long momentum clearly shrank, yet the price is still lingering in the high area—classic signs of a stalled rally. The pullback afterward was quite decisive, which shows the selling pressure is real, not a fake move.

At this point, the rebound strength is getting weaker and weaker: the highs are shifting downward, and the lows are also shifting downward. A standard short-term descending channel has already formed.

Someone might ask: since it’s dropped so much, shouldn’t we start buying? My view is: don’t rush. In this kind of structure, rebounds are most likely opportunities to hand points to the shorts, not meant to help longs turn things around. Once key support is broken effectively, the vacuum below will open up—and the speed will be very fast. Conversely, as long as the upper resistance hasn’t been absorbed with volume, I’ll treat any rebound only as a repair/adjustment, not a reversal.

Over on Bitcoin, the attempt to push higher also meets resistance at the same time. Ethereum is still moving in tandem with it, which indicates this isn’t a single-coin issue—the entire market’s risk appetite in this range has been suppressed. Funds don’t have the intention to keep pushing higher, so the structure naturally tilts toward hunting for liquidity to the downside. My judgment is very clear: as long as resistance hasn’t been effectively broken through, the bias remains bearish. Rebounds are for selling/handing opportunities; only a breakdown will be the ignition. Don’t rush the timing—let the structure play out on its own. It’s far more reliable than trying to guess the bottom and top.

Gaze at the vastness over the mountains; observe the market’s subtle changes.
Walk with Uncle Xiong and witness gains and losses on the scale of heaven and earth.

#ETH

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To be honest, after the abnormal move, we need to stay even calmer. This round of rebound in $ZEC has already shown quite a few issues. In the second rebound tonight, when the price moved back toward the earlier dense trading zone, it clearly hesitated there; the volume and momentum didn’t keep up, and buyers’ willingness to take the baton was weak. That spike upward looked more like short-covering releasing inertia rather than new capital actively pushing the move higher. When it hit a resistance level, it stalled; then it turned directly downward and broke through. In terms of rhythm, it’s been completely like being pressed and beaten. We’ve seen this kind of move too many times before—rebound is not reversal; it only gives shorts another chance to reorganize.

After a key level is breached, the support below turns into resistance, and the short-term moving averages also start to curve downward under pressure. Judging by volume-price coordination: during the sell-off, volume increases, but during the rebound, volume contracts. This indicates that selling pressure is still being actively released, while the re-accumulation/holding bids are not enthusiastic. In this structure, every time a rally pulls back to the resistance area, the risk-reward ratio tends to favor the short side. I’m not saying it will drop straight down in one line—there will definitely be ups and downs in between—but the directional bias is very clear: rebounds are met with resistance, key levels break downward, and the volume structure is bearish. With these three points combined, it’s hard for the short-term trend to turn around.

Instead of trying to guess where the bottom is, it’s better to respect the signals the chart is giving. What we truly need to wait for is the exhaustion of bearish momentum and a clear change in the volume structure—only then is it not too late to reassess. At this point, the cost-effectiveness of chasing shorts is decreasing, but when the rebound reaches the resistance area, it’s still the window to observe whether the bears continue to control the situation. Until the market provides evidence of a trend reversal, don’t rush to stand on the opposite side.

Widen your view over the mountains and seas; observe the market’s subtle shifts.
Travel with Uncle Xiong and witness every gain and loss under the sky.

#ZEC

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To be honest, the real trigger usually has to go through a round of fake moves first. This bounce that was pulled up from a low level—$BTC —looks lively, but in reality it follows the old path of a pullback with shrinking volume repair. The overhead pressure zone never managed to attract enough volume to push through and absorb it. I’ve seen this kind of structure many times: the higher it goes, the more it looks like it’s handing bullets to the shorts. Let’s talk about volume first. During the rebound, trading volume didn’t expand in sync, which suggests that the intent of the capital driving the price higher is limited. More of it is short-term short covering and emotion-driven dip-buying pulses. Once this pulse is used up, it’s easy for the price to slip back into the original downward rhythm.

Around the key resistance levels, it keeps testing but can’t firmly hold—this is inherently a weak-signal. If it were really going to turn strong, it wouldn’t take this long to grind. Now look at the structure. On the four-hour timeframe, the price is still constrained below the earlier dense volume trading zone. Each rebound peak is lower than the last, which is a classic continuation pattern of a descending structure. Once the support below is effectively broken, the room for a retest will open up, and the risk-reward ratio clearly favors the short side. I don’t try to guess the bottom, and I’m not betting on a reversal. Until the chart shows evidence of strength, it’s more reasonable to follow the existing direction.

Someone might ask: after it’s dropped so much, can you still chase a short? My view is that the issue isn’t whether to short or not—it’s about positioning. The relatively comfortable area for shorts is when price rebounds back toward the resistance zone, not when you impulsively act in the middle of panic selling. At this point, the downside odds are still more attractive than the upside. Waiting patiently for confirmation is far more reliable than rushing to bottom-fish. $BTC ’s short-term bearish outlook remains unchanged. Keep an eye on volume and how price reacts to the resistance zone—don’t let one bullish candle throw off your rhythm.

From afar, we see the vastness of the mountains and seas; in detail, we read the subtle movements of the market.
Walking alongside Uncle Xiong, we’ll witness the daily ebb and flow of gains and losses.

#BTC

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To be honest, look at the board calmly—incremental signals are more reliable than emotion. This round of rebound that repaired the $ETH path is basically done. After hitting a high, it met resistance and then fell back. Structurally, it’s still on the weaker side. The earlier repair that was pulled up from the lows didn’t see volume expand along with it. In plain terms, it’s a technical rebound driven by short-covering, not fresh, real incremental buying pushing it higher. When it reaches the overhead pressure zone, it gets pressed back—showing that real sell pressure is indeed there, and buy orders can’t hold it up. After the pullback, there’s also no decent follow-through. Each rebound is weaker than the last, and the highs keep stepping down. This rhythm isn’t very friendly to the bulls.

Now looking at the four-hour structure: the moving averages are still arranged bearishly. When price retraces toward the moving averages, it gets capped and hasn’t managed to stand effectively above. The MACD is below the zero line and shows some convergence, but the fast and slow lines haven’t formed a bullish crossover. The momentum histogram hasn’t turned positive either. You can only say the downtrend is slowing down—it’s not a true trend reversal. In this situation, going to抢反弹 (chase the rebound) isn’t a favorable risk-reward trade. The key still is whether that overhead pressure band can be broken effectively. As long as the rebound reaches this zone and meets renewed pressure again, there’s likely another leg down to test the support below.

If that previous low area can’t be defended, downside room will open up. Conversely, if it can stand above the pressure zone on increased volume, then the bearish outlook for this move needs to be reassessed—the market will provide signals. At this point, I’m more inclined to wait for the rebound to approach the pressure zone and observe the reaction rather than chase it by hitting sell into further downside. Market sentiment hasn’t reached the extreme-panic step, and there’s no sign of incremental capital entering. In a shrinking-volume “repair” like this, it often becomes an opportunity for shorts to redeploy. Don’t rush—let the market show its own way.

See the vastness of the mountains and seas; observe the subtle changes in the market.
Travel together with Uncle Xiong, and witness every cycle of gains and losses in the world.

#ETH

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To be honest, this isn’t a reversal—it's the undercurrent speaking. The rebound from the morning move, referenced by $BTC , has been patched up all the way to now. The signals on the chart are getting clearer: downward pressure above is pulling back, and in terms of rhythm it looks more like it’s setting up the next leg lower. First, look at the structure. After a four-hour level push to the high, it never managed to hold. The long upper wicks are obvious, showing that every upward attempt is getting absorbed by heavy selling pressure. The rebound highs are once lower than the last, and the pullback lows are shifting downward too—this kind of shifting center of gravity pattern already indicates that the bulls lack momentum.

Volume also tells the story. During the rebound phase, trading volume is shrinking; during the pullback phase, there’s actually more volume. Funds here are being cautious—they aren’t showing much willingness to chase upward. Next, look at the key levels. That cluster of resistance above has been tested repeatedly but never broken through effectively, turning into a solid pressure zone. Below, support has been repeatedly worn down; once it breaks, the space opened to the downside will be larger than what you can see right now. At present, price is oscillating right around support—on the surface it looks like stabilization, but in reality it’s more like it’s draining the bulls’ last bit of patience.

If you ask one thing—how long can this kind of low-volume rebound hold? My view is bearish. The logic comes down to two points: first, the rebound structure is weakening, with lower highs forming; second, volume and price action are aligned such that selling pressure is dominant. As long as the overhead resistance isn’t taken out on expanding volume, retesting support below is the more likely path. The risk is also clear: if resistance is reclaimed and holds on a breakout with volume, then this bearish thesis needs to be reassessed. Right now, the risk-reward ratio doesn’t favor chasing longs.

Wide as the mountains and seas—observe the market’s subtle shifts.
Walk with Uncle Xiong and see gains and losses through the day.

#BTC

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To be honest, when the trap appears, the order book structure of $ZEC has already said everything out loud. That morning bounce looks quite convincing at first glance, but when price pushes upward, the volume simply doesn’t keep up. I’ve never really trusted this kind of rebound—if there’s no volume supporting the move, then in plain terms it’s just positioning for the shorts. After that afternoon long upper wick was pulled out, the subsequent pullback was even more decisive than I expected. That shows the sell pressure overhead is real and not just a fake-out. What’s interesting about this current level is that the rebound highs keep getting lower each time, while the volume at the lower end that absorbs demand is shrinking.

With this kind of structure, every “looks decent” retracement is likely just testing whether there’s still anyone willing to take the bag. I’m not saying it will break down immediately, but the risk-reward is right there: to break upward through the previous dense zone of trading, you’d need volume that’s several times what you have now; while to fall downward, if buy pressure loosens even slightly, the drop can happen very fast. Someone might ask: it’s fallen so much—shouldn’t it bounce by now? Falling a lot has never been a reason to be bullish. If the structure hasn’t finished unfolding, then it hasn’t finished unfolding.

On the four-hour timeframe, the moving average system still presses down on price. Even the rebound hasn’t managed to stand above the short-term moving averages. In this weak setup, trying to guess the bottom is no different than reaching out to catch a flying knife. My view is straightforward: as long as the rebound can’t reclaim that key pressure zone with volume, the direction is still downward. What you need to watch now is whether the rebound comes with genuine volume. A rebound without sincerity is a window left for the shorts. Don’t let one or two bullish candles shake your eyes—structure is more reliable than emotion.

To gaze across the vastness of mountains, to observe the subtle movements of the market.
With Uncle Xiong as company, see daily gains and losses.

#ZEC

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To be honest, high odds often hide in the downside. $AR right now feels like that situation. It’s not that it hasn’t fallen enough—after the rebound, the volume structure is too awkward. Price keeps nudging higher, but the trading volume is thinning layer by layer. This kind of divergence is worth being cautious about for any storage-sector ticker. The order book looks quite thick, but once you try to push it, you’ll see the support is weak; with just a little selling pressure, it’s easy for the price to slide down. I looked at its recent trend: several attempts to hold key levels failed—each time it rallied, it left behind an upper shadow, showing that overhead selling pressure is genuinely there. With this kind of structure, the rebound is more like space being left for the shorts, not the starting point of a trend reversal.

In terms of market sentiment, the storage sector overall doesn’t have any solid narrative supporting it. You can visibly see capital attention drifting downward. Once liquidity tightens, price elasticity will only get worse. What a project fears most isn’t falling—it’s having no one willing to take the other side. $AR has a bit of that flavor right now. At key levels, as long as the prior high area overhead isn’t absorbed on volume, the short thesis is still intact. For the downside, first watch whether effective support can be formed near the prior lows; if even that area is only barely held, it wouldn’t be surprising if it opens up further down the line. In terms of risk-reward, chasing upward from the current position clearly isn’t as cost-effective as waiting for the rebound to lose steam and then taking a short on the trend.

Of course, it’s not to say it won’t suddenly spike—markets always have surprises. But based on the confluence of structure, volume, and sentiment, the resistance to the downside is indeed smaller than the upside. My own habit when monitoring the market is: I don’t easily change direction until the structure is clearly broken. For $AR right now, let the rebound be just a rebound—don’t treat it as a reversal. If you truly want to act, wait until it has bled off that upward momentum from above first. The market won’t finish in a single day; patience is worth more than speed.

Wide horizons from the mountains and seas; see the market’s subtlety.
Travel with Uncle Xiong—see the balance of gains and losses under the sky.

#AR

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To be honest, this isn’t a reversal—it's the ignition that's speaking. After the $F four-hour structure went through that rapid surge, it didn’t break into a typical sharp top-and-fall pattern. Instead, it stayed sideways at a high level, with volume contracting in a very controlled manner. I’ve seen this kind of formation quite a few times: after the run-up there’s no dump, and it consolidates on shrinking volume. Usually that means the chips inside aren’t planning to close out at this level, while the outside capital is still waiting for a confirmation signal. Single-token coin rhythm has never been about reason. Two weeks can multiply several times and look terrifying, but given the current heat in the DEX track, this feels more like a round of preheating rather than the final chapter.

The logic I care about has two points. First, it’s treading on the DEX hot wind. As long as the sector sentiment hasn’t cooled off, capital’s tolerance for this kind of asset tends to be clearly higher, and pullbacks are easier to be picked up. Second, the market cap is still in a very early range; that means once incremental capital comes in, price elasticity will be very direct. The thrust required to open space upward is far less than for large-cap names. What the chart feels like to me right now is that selling pressure has been digested to a large extent. Support is lifting, while the pressure near that previous high area above is more psychological than a dense chip zone.

Of course, the risk of a reversal also needs to be made clear. The volatility of a single-token coin is already intense. If it breaks down and falls below the lower edge of the current sideways range on increased volume, then even if this structure turns out to be flawed, you have to admit it and adjust. But before that happens, I’m inclined to interpret this consolidation as accumulation before ignition, not a top. I’m standing on the long side—what I’m waiting for is that one moment when it punches through the consolidation range to the upside.

In the vastness of mountains and seas, observe the subtle shifts in the market.
Travel with Uncle Xiong, and see the tides of profit and loss.

Yesterday, on September 18, 2026, KORU, UNI, ETH, AAVE, NEAR, HYPE, TAO, DOGE, SNDK, SOL, WLD, SUI, BTC, MU, SOXL, and ZEC— a total of 60 profitable strategies were realized. I’ve been watching this number for a long time. It isn’t some cold, lifeless statistic. It’s the market’s response after I repeatedly analyze support and resistance in the dead of night, study the volume and structure, and weigh the risk-reward ratio. Staying up late to monitor the charts, the screen’s light hits your face—you can’t say it’s not tiring. But when strategy after strategy plays out as expected, that sense of steadiness feels more real than any excitement.

To be honest, this road hasn’t been easy. The market keeps pulling and tugging; emotions swing hot and cold. What I do is nothing more than to make the logic clear and to hold the discipline that must be kept. Someone asked me why I always do post-trade reviews. It’s because I know that getting paid isn’t based on luck—it’s about thinking through risk in advance. Yesterday’s 60 profitable strategies were realized. They covered multiple directions from mainstream to niche sectors. Not every trade was perfect, but overall the rhythm held. The profits that should be taken were taken, and the risks that should be controlled didn’t run out of control.

I write strategies not to prove how accurate I am, but so that people who follow me can take fewer detours. The market is always changing. The only thing that doesn’t change is respect for structure and reverence for position sizing. Thank you to the friends who’ve been watching and thinking along the way. Your patience and trust are the reasons I keep staying up late to review and analyze. The road ahead is still long. I’ll keep breaking down support and resistance, volume changes, and the risk-reward ratio and explain them to you piece by piece. Follow Xiong Shu UP—honestly, the main account doesn’t play games. We just tell the truth. See you in the next round of the market.

Wander through the vastness of mountains and seas, and observe the subtlety of the market.
Travel with Uncle Xiong, and witness wins and losses filling the sky.

#KORU

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To be honest, when some trading signals start showing up, the order book structure of $AKE is already telling a rather bleak story. After this push upward, the market cap has been built up to a truly outrageous level. Going higher from here requires incremental capital that expands exponentially step by step, and the current volume structure simply can’t support this kind of consumption. I looked through the 4-hour K-line arrangement: several consecutive bullish candles have shrinking bodies, while the upper wicks are getting longer. This is a classic signal of chasing momentum exhaustion—nothing like healthy rotation and turnover. More importantly, it’s the funding side. The positive funding rate stays at a relatively high level, which indicates that the bulls are still paying to hold positions continuously. After market cap inflates to a certain scale, this kind of structure often means the chips are highly concentrated on one side.

With bulls this crowded, who’s going to receive the selling on the other side? The upside space has already been essentially used up. The motivation for the “main force” to distribute (sell) is far stronger than the motive to keep pushing. I’ve seen this scene too many times—when funding rates are more positive and bulls are more crowded, the market is closer to a turning point. Someone may ask: what if it can still surge again? My view is that even if there’s some momentum upward, the risk-reward ratio is already seriously out of balance.

Every additional point upward will require more volume/energy and even more extreme funding to buy, while once the bulls start to loosen down below, the pace of liquidation and panic selling will exceed expectations. From this spot, I lean bearish—not based on wishful thinking, but on the combined judgment from the volume-price structure and the funding-rate structure. $AKE ’s current condition is the classic “crossbow at the end of its string”: still putting up a hard front on the surface, but hollowed out underneath. For directional judgment, I only look at odds and structure—I don’t gamble on emotions.

Gaze at the vastness of mountains and seas, and observe the market’s subtle changes.
Travel alongside Uncle Xiong, and see profit and loss rise and fall with the heavens and earth.

#AKE

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To be honest, the opportunity to pick up gains is always hidden in disagreements—$UNI , and the current chart structure is perfectly stuck at this node. From a daily timeframe perspective, after the previous upswing, there wasn’t a breakdown on heavy volume; instead, it moved into a high-level sideways consolidation with gradually shrinking volume. This kind of low-volume pullback in a trend is typically a continuation pattern, not a top signal. On the 4-hour chart, price has stayed pressing against the moving average system as it grinds higher. Each retracement is quickly pulled back, suggesting that buy-side support below is not weak and that the selling pressure in this range has mostly been digested. As for market sentiment: many people hesitate after a rise, wondering whether they should just get out.

But flip the perspective—when a true top forms, it’s often a scene of booming crowds, blowout trading volume, and maximum FOMO chasing. The current state of disagreement is actually healthier. $UNI , as the leader of the DEX sector, has undeniable trading volume data for this cycle. The mechanism and narrative haven’t finished playing out, and capital attention is still steadily heating up. In terms of chart structure, the prior high area is a clear resistance zone. Once it breaks out on volume, the upside space will open. Meanwhile, the downside support has been tested multiple times and is relatively solid. The risk-reward ratio is attractive. I won’t guess exactly what price level it can reach, but directionally, as long as there isn’t a breakdown of key support on heavy volume, the long bias structure has not been broken.

At this point, rather than纠结 whether to chase, it’s better to focus on whether the trend has finished. When these three conditions are met at the same time—volume and price acting in harmony, the structure is complete, and sentiment divergence exists—it often indicates there’s still another stretch of the journey ahead.

Gaze at the vastness of mountains and seas, and observe the market’s subtle movements.
Walk with Uncle Xiong, and witness gains and losses across the sky.

#UNI

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To be honest, take a calm look at the hard evidence—window signals are more reliable. Moves like “$G ,” where it can flip several times in a single day, look exactly like a typical emotional impulse rather than a trend built by structure. I watched the volume all day. The few candles during the surge were indeed fierce, but the problem is that follow-through just doesn’t keep up afterward. Volume and price have already shown clear divergence—the price stays in a high range and moves sideways, while the trading volume keeps dropping layer by layer. This combination usually means the driving funds are withdrawing, and what remains is scattered retail follower buying that’s barely holding on. I don’t really believe that a vertical ramp-up can simply stand firm.

After this kind of fast spike, there hasn’t been a decent rotation-and-churn consolidation. The chip distribution is fragmented and gapped—once the trapped overhead supply loosens, there will be a “vacuum” below. It will fall faster than it rose.

Chasing it at this level isn’t a good risk-to-reward setup: upside room is being driven by emotions, while downside room is defined by structure. Who’s more solid doesn’t need me to spell out, right? Also look at the overall market environment—capital hasn’t clearly flowed back into these high-volatility names. More of it is local day-trading money. Once the broader market weakens even slightly, these emotion-driven tickers are often the first to get drained. I’m not judging it based on how much it’s already risen; I only care whether it can maintain this volume level. If it can’t, a pullback is highly likely. Directionally, I’m leaning bearish.

It’s not because it’s risen a lot that it “should” fall. It’s because the volume-price structure has already sent fatigue signals. A stagnating advance at high levels combined with shrinking volume—this is not something I’m willing to back the bulls on. Next, the key is to watch whether it can expand volume and break above the previous high again. If it can’t, that overhead pressure will stay pressing down. #G

Gaze on the vastness of mountains and seas, and observe the market’s subtle shifts.
Walk with Big Uncle Xiong and see the gains and losses from day to day.

To be honest, the breakout window doesn’t wait. The order book structure of $EVAA is now giving clear proof signals. I’ve been watching this coin since the open. In a bit more than half a month, it has already had room to move twenty times; it’s not unheard of for it to double within a single day. Every time it starts, it’s straightforward and decisive—no room left for people who hesitate. At this point, I still see some upside left above.

Why am I making this call? First, from the perspective of volume structure: after each push up, the pullback sees volume decline quickly, which suggests selling pressure isn’t heavy and the chips are being locked in fairly steadily. This kind of formation usually means the main players aren’t planning to stop yet. Second, the depth of each pullback becomes shallower every time, and the lows keep getting raised—this is a classic sign of a strong consolidation. It doesn’t look like a top.

My feeling from the chart is that the pullback is meant to give opportunities, not to let you run away. Of course, coins with strong momentum can be volatile, and chasing higher can easily get you slapped. My approach is to wait until the pullback stabilizes, then decide—not to force it at the tail end of the rally.

As for risk-reward, you have to calculate it clearly before you act. There’s still upside ahead, but you need to control the pace yourself. In plain terms, a move like $EVAA is basically strong dealer control. What retail traders can do is follow the structure—don’t scare yourself. The logic of going long directly on the pullback—I agree with it.

As vast as the mountains and seas can be—observe the market’s subtle changes.
Traveling with Uncle Xiong, witness day-to-day gains and losses.

#EVAA

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To be honest, the real undercurrent is often hidden behind the reversal. $ARB hasn’t been moving very flamboyantly these past couple of days, but when you line up a few of the old familiar faces from the second-tier tracks and look at the pattern together, the taste comes through—those that led the previous wave have already shown their gains clearly, while only it is still hovering in a relatively low range. That contrast by itself is a signal. I mainly watch two things when monitoring the chart. First is structure. The earlier surge before the $ARB daily chart opened up the space above; afterward, the pullback hasn’t been deep. That’s a typical strong consolidation pattern: the lows haven’t continued to break down, which suggests that selling pressure in this zone is being absorbed gradually, and the number of people willing to pick it up here is more than you’d think. Second is volume and momentum. During the pullback, the trading volume is shrinking step by step; there hasn’t been that panic-driven surge in volume to smash it down. A low-volume pullback usually means the funds are waiting for a direction, not retreating.

On the other hand, if the plan were truly to weaken, it should have had volume to smash downward already. The current way it’s moving looks more like accumulation. Then look at how it links up with other names in the same track. The concept of “second tier” has never been a one-off—once capital flows back, the whole sector often moves together. The leading names have already sparked the sentiment; the lagging ones will eventually rotate in on the “catch-up” logic. As $ARB is a high-consensus asset in this track, and its position is more comfortable than the earlier batch, the risk-reward ratio, in my view, is favorable. Of course, that doesn’t mean you can blindly assume it’ll go up—what matters is whether it can hold steady in this range. As long as the pullback doesn’t break the prior consolidation platform, the probability of a move higher is clearly greater than the probability of a move lower.

Conversely, if one day it breaks through the platform to the downside on heavy volume, then this logic needs to be recalculated. Based on the information the current chart is giving me, I lean toward the bullish side. $ARB

Gazing at the vastness of mountains and seas, and discerning the small movements of the market.
Walk alongside Uncle Xiong, and witness gains and losses across the skies.

#ARB

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To be honest, the last candlestick in a sequence is often the most misleading, and traps are also often laid when emotions are at their most excited. This rally—$MYX —looks lively on the surface, but there’s something off in the structure of the chart. First, look at volume. During the move up, the trading volume doesn’t form a healthy pattern of sustained expansion; instead, it’s mostly driven by pulse-like spikes—a single big volume candle pushes up, and the subsequent volume clearly can’t keep up. With this kind of volume-price coordination, in plain terms, it’s a push higher without follow-through—supported by short-term sentiment rather than solid accumulation.

Next, look at positioning. Before the earlier rally, long positions had already been piled up heavily, with many retail traders queuing up ahead of time before the good news even came. Here’s the issue—when most people squeeze onto the same side, who will act as the counterparty to keep pushing the price higher? The overhead trapped-share supply also can’t be ignored. The batch of chips trapped at the prior high hasn’t been fully digested yet; once the price returns to this zone, the sell pressure from traders looking to break even will naturally start to spill out. For the longs to push higher, they need to first absorb that supply—but the volume simply can’t support the required consumption.

From a risk-reward perspective, the upside for chasing longs and the downside for a pullback are completely asymmetric. Every step upward faces dense overhead resistance, while downward movement is mostly a vacuum. Once sentiment cools off, the speed of the retracement can be very fast. Under this structure, I’m more inclined to wait for confirmation of the direction after the rebound’s momentum has exhausted. The chart doesn’t lie—what lies is the expectation that you’re unwilling to admit. At $MYX ’s current level, the more impatient the longs are, the more likely they are to become the side being harvested.

Gaze across the vast mountains and seas, and observe the smallest nuances of the market.
Walk alongside Brother Xiong; witness every gain and loss with the heavens and the earth.

#MYX

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To be honest, the real undercurrents often hide behind calm. This surge—supported by $MYX —looks exciting, but after reviewing it, I realized the essence is that an emotion-driven market is pushing it forward; the structure itself isn’t really “creating” the move. On the news front, flap put up a vault supported by $MYX . Once the community spread the word, short-term funds directly lit the fuse. I’ve seen too many of these pulse-style rallies—here fast, gone just as fast. Volume concentrates on those few candles during the pump; whether it can be held afterward is the key. If you stay calm and look at it, this run has already used up most of the short-term emotional fuel. Those who chased in have all paid their costs clustered at the highs. Once the buy orders can’t keep up, selling pressure will find its own exit.

Then look at fundamentals: every month, fixed unlocks—nothing changes. On the supply side, what needs to come will still come. Emotions can prop it up for a while, but they can’t outlast the monthly rhythm of sell pressure. The characteristic of these “old demon” coins is that when they pump, they’re brutal—and when they pull back, they’re just as unreasonable, because the holder/lot structure isn’t clean to begin with. Nobody knows how many people above are trapped waiting to get back to break-even. On the chart, after the rally, the volume has started to show divergence. The upward thrust gets weaker each time. This kind of structure has a higher probability of moving downward. I’m not focused on how much higher it can still go; I’m focused on where it goes once it can’t push anymore.

The risk-reward ratio is right in front of us: the upside space is granted by emotion, while the downside space is jointly provided by unlocks and profit-taking. It’s not hard to do the math. My bias is bearish. The logic is twofold: first, the emotion-driven market can’t support a sustained flow of buying; second, the supply pressure from fixed unlocks hasn’t gone away. As for timing, watch how it plays out on its own—don’t rush to draw conclusions. $MYX

Gaze at the vastness of mountains and seas, and observe the market’s subtleties.
Walk with Uncle Xiong, and witness every gain and loss.

#MYX

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Honestly, don’t let hard evidence lead you astray—picking up money is the main storyline. This wave with $UNI has surged so fast; many people are staring at that one screenshot of million-level profit and calling it a bubble, but I feel the direction hasn’t finished yet. After the daily chart broke above the previous high on increased volume, the pullback’s力度 (selling pressure) turned out shallower than expected, suggesting that supply has been absorbed quite cleanly. In this kind of structure, the biggest fear isn’t that it moves up too quickly—it’s that volume can’t keep up. And right now, the volume-price coordination is still relatively healthy. The key logic is just two points.

First, at the weekly level, it has just exited the bottom consolidation range, with no dense cost/congestion zone overhead applying heavy pressure. In a “vacuum” area, price tends to slide toward higher tiers. Second, expectations for on-chain governance and fee switch mechanics are still brewing; the market is still willing to grant a valuation premium. Once this sentiment rises, it won’t dissipate in a single day. As for the target called out by Standard Chartered—let’s not discuss whether it can be reached for now. At minimum, it shows that from an institutional perspective there’s still room for imagination. Of course, chasing higher prices comes with risk, so manage it with discipline. If, on the four-hour timeframe, you see increased volume but no follow-through (volume stagnation) or long upper wicks, the short term might shake out a bit—but as long as the medium-term structure hasn’t broken, I lean toward pullbacks being opportunities rather than a chance to flee.

If you really want the best risk-reward, wait for the pullback to confirm—it's more comfortable than charging in head-on right now. The biggest taboo in this market is: when it rises, expect it to keep rising; when it falls, expect it to keep falling. Watching the structure is more reliable than watching sentiment. As long as $UNI doesn’t break down below the breakout level on increased volume, the direction is still in the hands of the bulls.

To gaze across the vast mountains and seas; to observe the market’s smallest movements.
Travel with Brother Xiong, and witness gains and losses day by day.

#UNI

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Honestly, during the unusual price-move moment, I chose to pick a side and send some liquidity rather than follow the emotions. $XRP The order book had just shown a round of quick surging, but what truly caught my attention wasn’t the bullish candle itself—it was the structure of short positions piling up behind it. As price is pushed upward, open interest doesn’t show any obvious decline; instead, it keeps increasing throughout the rally. What does that mean? It means someone is adding shorts against the trend, and they’re doing it with real determination. I checked the funding rates across various platforms—most are still negative, meaning shorts are paying longs. Under this kind of structure, every step price moves higher adds more psychological pressure on the shorts. Once a dense liquidation zone gets triggered, passive buy orders will directly push the price even higher.

This isn’t a new script, but every time it plays out, it works exceptionally well. Now look at the spot side: the ETF channel’s funding doesn’t seem to be stopping—it continues with net inflows, providing solid support for the order book. The more the short side piles up in the futures market and the more the buy side keeps showing up in spot, the tighter the squeeze becomes, and the resistance to upward movement is actually smaller than many people think. Of course, I’m not saying it will rocket up in a single push. There will definitely be pullbacks in the middle—chop/whipsaw, and potentially even wick spikes that sweep out some indecisive longs. But directionally, as long as short positions don’t begin large-scale主动平仓 (actively closing), this squeeze logic remains intact. The risk is if the spot buying suddenly dries up, or if the overall market turns weaker and drags sentiment down—then the structure could break.

So the key is to watch two things: first, when the funding rate turns positive; second, whether open interest starts to fall during the rally. Before these signals show up, I’m inclined to believe the upward momentum is still there. Don’t rush to chase price—wait for the pullback to confirm support before considering. The market always has opportunities, but your principal is only one. $XRP

Gaze upon the vastness of the mountains and seas, and observe the market’s subtleties.
Travel alongside Uncle Xiong, and see profits and losses with every day.

#XRP

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To be honest, both accumulation and divergence are showing up on the order book for <0-9]{11}$SOXL </0-9]{11}, and at this level I’m actually more willing than in the past few weeks to look upward. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has pulled back from its highs to where it is now—the decline is already deep enough. Most of the market’s pricing for further rate hikes has basically played out; what’s left is more about emotional inertia weighing on prices. But look at the recent volume structure: during down moves, volume shrinks; during rebounds, volume expands. That rhythm doesn’t look like it’s set up to keep collapsing—it looks more like someone is slowly picking up positions at low levels. I’m watching <0-9]{11}$SOXL </0-9]{11} mainly for two things.

First, the duration and magnitude of this round of correction in the semiconductor sector are sufficient. The Philadelphia Semiconductor has been smashed from around three hundred down to just over one hundred. Below this point, most people willing to cut have already cut; the remaining holdings are relatively stable. Second, as a triple-leveraged product, <0-9]{11}$SOXL </0-9]{11} naturally has big leverage on rebounds. Once sector sentiment repairs, its reaction will be much more aggressive than the spot index. What the chart feels like to me now is that the short-side momentum is exhausted, while the bulls haven’t fully started firing yet—this is the stage with the greatest divergence. And divergence is often the night before a direction is chosen. Someone might ask: what if it keeps falling?

I won’t deny there’s a possibility of another dip, but from a risk-reward perspective, the downside space is limited while the upside rebound has plenty of elasticity. This payoff ratio is more favorable for longs. What I’m focused on is whether the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can hold the prior low region—so long as this base doesn’t break, it’s worth waiting for the repair rally in <0-9]{11}$SOXL </0-9]{11}. In terms of direction, I’m leaning bullish. The logic is not chasing price higher, but oversold conditions plus emotional clearing—waiting for the structure to stabilize before going with the trend.

See the vastness of mountains and seas—observe the subtle movements of the market.
With Big Brother Xiong, see the world’s gains and losses.

#SOXL

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