Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian
Anndy Lian: Crypto industry focus shifting towards decentralization
Anndy Lian points out that the industry is currently chasing liquidity, with similar behavior seen previously in stocks and gold.
He emphasizes the importance of remembering the original purpose of crypto, notably its focus on decentralization and representing the future.


Lian recently reported that crypto market capitalization fell 1.11% to $2.22 trillion as Bitcoin led selling and correlations with traditional assets rose. He has also challenged the view that meme coins require prominent endorsements, emphasizing community development as critical for growth. The latest commentary builds on these observations.

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/2700957-crypto-liquidity-decentralization-focus/
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Anndy Lian
Bitcoin at US$63,780: Buying opportunity or trap? The uncomfortable truth
Bitcoin trades at US$63,780.63, representing more than a 50 per cent correction from the all-time high of US$126,198 it established in October 2025. While the fourth post-halving cycle successfully produced a peak higher than any prior market expansion, the subsequent downward correction has proved exactly as aggressive as the previous upward climb.
In the last 24 hours, the price dropped by an additional 1.55 per cent. The psychological environment governing the market reflects this downward pressure, with the Fear and Greed Index at 22, signalling extreme fear among active market participants.
Technical indicators validate this widespread anxiety because every single major moving average hovers directly above the current price action, constructing a series of formidable overhead resistance levels that complicate near-term bullish recovery efforts.
Heavy structural headwinds intensify these technical difficulties, particularly as large-scale capital movements from sovereign nations disrupt market stability. The United States government recently generated substantial anxiety among trading desks by transferring US$288 million in seized bitcoin and ether directly to the Coinbase Prime trading platform. This substantial block of digital assets originated from historical criminal enforcement seizures involving Farace and BTC-e.
The government routed these specific assets through a series of fresh, newly generated blockchain wallets before the coins finally arrived at the institutional exchange platform. This transaction triggered widespread alarm among allocators because the sudden movement directly contradicted prior official assurances of a strict no-sell reserve order for government-held digital tokens.
The unexpected emergence of potential state-sponsored liquidation pressure hit the market at a highly vulnerable juncture. This government supply shock immediately amplified existing selling pressure, forcing market participants to reassess the asset’s near-term supply dynamics.
Simultaneously, institutional investment vehicles recorded their worst single-day capital outflows of the month, indicating a coordinated retreat among traditional finance managers. Total outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reached a staggering US$424 million in a single trading session. This heavy institutional divestment saw BlackRock’s IBIT vehicle shed US$185 million in investor capital, while Fidelity’s FBTC vehicle experienced an even larger reduction by losing US$245 million.
These massive liquidation numbers pose an immediate, severe obstacle that any optimistic price prediction must fully account for before forecasting a sustainable market turnaround. The sudden departure of institutional sponsorship suggests that professional wealth managers are actively de-risking their portfolios in response to changing global conditions. This dual pressure of government selling and exchange-traded fund redemptions creates a formidable barrier that will require significant time and substantial buying volume to completely clear.
Macroeconomic forces outside the immediate sphere of digital networks dictate this downward price trajectory. The primary driver of the latest market contraction is a sharp geopolitical risk-off sentiment that shook international financial markets on July 16, 2026.
Renewed conflict and intensifying military tensions between the United States and Iran on that day triggered an immediate flight to safety among global investors. This sudden geopolitical flashpoint spooked international market participants, sparking a rapid, synchronised sell-off that simultaneously battered high-growth technology equities, traditional commodities, and decentralised cryptocurrencies. This synchronised market contraction proves that the recent price drop does not arise from internal blockchain vulnerabilities or crypto-specific failures. Instead, the price action reflects a broad, macro-driven aversion to geopolitical instability.
Market analysts warn that prolonged friction in the Middle East could significantly delay highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and tighten global financial conditions. Investors currently prioritise absolute liquidity and capital preservation over speculative price appreciation, a behavioural shift that deprives risk assets of the consistent inflows necessary to defend higher price levels.
The mature integration of digital tokens into the global financial framework manifests clearly in recent cross-asset correlation statistics. Bitcoin currently maintains a strong 64 per cent correlation with the traditional S&P 500 stock index and an identical 64 per cent correlation with gold. This dual statistical linkage indicates that macroeconomic interest rate expectations and geopolitical headlines guide the cryptocurrency market just as forcefully as they steer traditional equities and safe-haven precious metals.
As broader market positioning shifted rapidly in response to international headlines, the cryptocurrency derivatives sector underwent a swift, painful unwinding. Total open interest across the bitcoin futures market dropped by 4.17 per cent, demonstrating that heavily leveraged traders chose to abandon their positions rather than attempt to defend key support levels.
Funding rates collapsed to a very low level of positive 0.006 per cent, proving that speculative long conviction has completely vanished from the trading environment. This sharp cooling of speculative leverage triggered US$46.1 million in forced bitcoin liquidations, effectively purging overextended participants from the ecosystem.
From a strictly technical analysis standpoint, the asset’s immediate trajectory depends entirely on specific support and resistance levels. The immediate price zone between US$63,800 and US$64,000 represents a critical near-term support floor, closely aligned with the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at US$63,067.
If this specific price boundary holds firm against the ongoing selling pressure, bitcoin could establish a temporary consolidation range between US$63,800 and US$65,500. A definitive downside break below this support floor risks a rapid retest of the lower support zone spanning from US$62,000 to US$62,050, particularly if international headlines take a turn for the worse.
The digital asset ecosystem remains highly cautious and dependent on global macroeconomic developments. Short-term price stability rests entirely on incoming international news flows and buyers’ ability to maintain the line at critical technical support thresholds. In my humble opinion, the market will tank further; there is no need to rush in to buy now.

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-at-us63780-buying-opportunity-or-trap-the-uncomfortable-truth-20260717/
The post Bitcoin at US$63,780: Buying opportunity or trap? The uncomfortable truth appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Anndy Lian
Bitcoin at US$64,660: The hidden on-chain signal that suggests we’re still in a bear market
Bitcoin recently outperformed both United States and European equities following the United States Consumer Price Index inflation report on Tuesday. This decisive move marks a strong recovery after weeks of trading sideways near recent lows. This price action is a structural shift rather than a random fluctuation.
The current market dynamics suggest that selling pressure is exhausting. Buyers are increasingly positioning themselves and waiting for positive macroeconomic catalysts to drive the next leg higher. This exhaustion of sellers often precedes significant trend reversals, especially when converging macroeconomic and onchain data support this trajectory. Independent analysis reveals patterns that mainstream narratives frequently suppress, and the current data strongly supports a bullish structural foundation for the future of decentralised finance.
The primary catalyst for this renewed momentum is undeniably macroeconomic relief. The latest Consumer Price Index report showed an unexpected 0.4 per cent monthly drop in inflation. This represents the largest cooling in inflation since April 2020. With annual inflation slowing down, macro investors have renewed confidence that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady or begin cutting them in the near future. This expectation drives capital back into risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
I have long emphasised the correlation between traditional financial markets and digital assets. When macroeconomic conditions ease, liquidity inevitably seeks higher yields, and Bitcoin stands as the premier beneficiary of this global capital rotation. The market correctly prices in this shifting monetary policy landscape before official rate decisions occur, demonstrating the efficiency of decentralised markets compared to legacy systems.
Onchain metrics further validate this constructive outlook. Bitcoin continues to trade above the average on-chain cost basis of all investors. It remains below the short-term holder cost basis near US$69,000. This specific positioning provides deep insight into market psychology.
Long-term holders have largely stopped realising profits during this period. Furthermore, recent outflows have been increasingly sold at a loss. These behaviours reflect classic signs of a late-stage bear market where weak hands have already capitulated. The remaining supply sits in the wallets of conviction buyers who understand the long-term value proposition of decentralised financial infrastructure. We can clearly observe that buyers absorbed much of the selling pressure from the decline in June.
The Glassnode Accumulation Trend Score showed broad buying activity across both small and large wallet cohorts as Bitcoin traded near its recent lows. This broad accumulation indicates retail participants and sophisticated whales recognise the value at these price levels. The accumulation has since moderated as prices stabilised, signalling a healthy natural equilibrium rather than frantic speculation.
Institutional flows also reflect clear signs of improvement, even amidst broader market caution. United States spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions slowed considerably from the heavy outflows we witnessed in June. This deceleration suggests institutional selling pressure is finally stabilising. Bitcoin funds netted US$181 million in inflows on Tuesday.
This positive movement partially offset the US$424 million in outflows recorded the day before. While this reflects a minor recovery, the unwinding lacks support from strong, aggressive buying. This nuanced institutional behaviour aligns perfectly with my independent analysis of traditional finance entering the crypto space. Until inflows return and hold consistently, this remains a market where institutions have stopped fleeing but have not started buying aggressively.
Traditional financial players exercise extreme caution. They require confirmed macroeconomic shifts and sustained price stability before committing fresh capital. This cautious approach is rational, and it highlights the friction between legacy regulatory frameworks and decentralised systems. Traditional financial tests like the Howey test remain unsuitable for evaluating these decentralised crypto systems, creating temporary hesitation among institutional allocators.
The derivatives market provides additional confirmation of this shifting sentiment. Traders have steadily shifted away from bearish positioning over recent weeks. The options put-to-call ratio has fallen to its lowest level of the year. This decline indicates a substantially reduced demand for downside protection.
Smart money is adjusting its risk models, recognising that the probability of a severe downward continuation has diminished. Perpetual futures funding rates have remained slightly positive during this recovery phase. This specific metric suggests that long positioning has not become crowded.
In my experience analysing market liquidity and derivatives volume, crowded long positioning often precedes sharp, corrective liquidations. Funding rates remaining slightly positive indicate a sustainable and organic recovery. Technically, Bitcoin is currently hovering around US$64,660. This price action reflects a strong multi-day push that reclaimed the crucial US$65,000 psychological milestone.
The recent upward momentum accelerated significantly when Bitcoin broke back over the technical resistance levels between US$58,000 and US$62,000. This breakout triggered a massive wave of short covering. Traders betting on further price drops bought back their positions to limit losses. This forced buying acted as rocket fuel, pushing the price decisively past the resistance zone.
Three powerful, converging factors drive this recent upward momentum.
First, easing United States inflation data has provided essential macroeconomic relief.
Second, massive institutional ETF inflows, including over US$180 million in net inflows in a single day, led heavily by funds like BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust, demonstrate continuous whale accumulation that absorbs market supply and applies strong upward price pressure.
Third, short covering and forced liquidation cleared out bearish leverage, fuelling the breakout. These elements form a robust foundation for the next major expansion phase of digital assets.
I am looking forward to more changes.

Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-at-us64660-the-hidden-on-chain-signal-that-suggests-were-still-in-a-bear-market-20260716/
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Anndy Lian
Is the US$63,619 Fibonacci level strong enough to prevent a total unwind back down to US$62,498?
The global cryptocurrency market experienced a profound structural shift over the past 24 hours, staging a major relief rally that directly challenged recent bearish momentum. Bitcoin led the charge, surging 4.10 per cent to reach a spot price of US$64,884.04 and outperforming the broader digital asset market, which posted a robust 3.71 per cent increase.
This sudden influx of buying pressure pushed the aggregate crypto market capitalisation up by 3.43 per cent, bringing the ecosystem’s total valuation to an impressive US$2.22T. Unlike isolated, native crypto events that occasionally spark volatility, this collective upward movement stemmed directly from external macroeconomic forces, signalling a tightening bond between digital assets and traditional financial markets.
The broader investment landscape witnessed a highly synchronised cross-asset response, with a remarkable 91 per cent correlation between cryptocurrency movements and the S&P 500 index and an 81 per cent correlation with Gold. These historically high statistical alignments indicate that digital assets are currently trading as a high-beta vehicle, deeply sensitive to global interest-rate expectations and broader dollar liquidity conditions.
The primary catalyst behind this aggressive market expansion was the highly anticipated release of the June United States Consumer Price Index data on July 14. In a surprise twist that caught many market participants off guard, the inflation print fell 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis due to lower energy costs, a metric that came in significantly cooler than the initial -0.1 per cent forecast.
This unexpected contraction cooled annual inflation down to a steady 3.5 per cent, delivering a massive wave of macro relief to participants who had previously feared aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Because high interest rates typically drain liquidity from highly speculative, risk-on asset classes, this sudden disinflationary evidence sparked immediate expectations of future central bank rate cuts.
Traditional tech stocks and digital assets surged in tandem as capital rapidly rotated back into growth-oriented plays. For Bitcoin, this macro development reinforces its ongoing role as a sensitive atmospheric gauge of global monetary policy, meaning that any fundamental shift in the broader interest-rate outlook can trigger massive overnight capital reallocations.
While the fundamental shift in macroeconomic sentiment laid the groundwork for the rally, the price action accelerated into a violent move due to a massive leveraged short squeeze in the derivatives markets. Traders who had positioned themselves aggressively for further downside were caught completely off guard by the positive inflation data, triggering a fierce feedback loop of forced buying.
Over the 24-hour window, the market saw a staggering US$104.12 million in Bitcoin positions wiped out by liquidations, with short sellers bearing the brunt, accounting for US$99.41 million of that total. This rapid cascading failure of short positions forced algorithmic buying engines to purchase spot and futures contracts at prevailing market rates to close out bankrupt accounts, adding immense artificial rocket fuel to the organic demand.
To complicate matters for bears, the average funding rate across major exchanges surged by an astronomical 158.42 per cent during this brief period, indicating an immediate and aggressive influx of bullish leverage as market participants scrambled to chase the breakout.
Simultaneously, the digital asset ecosystem enjoyed a healthy dose of sector leadership and speculative flow distribution that extended far beyond Bitcoin alone. Ethereum spearheaded this internal rotation by posting a notable 5.8 per cent weekly gain, significantly outperforming Bitcoin’s 2.02 per cent weekly return. This capital divergence was heavily amplified by social media chatter that framed Ethereum as a form of sound money uniquely positioned to thrive in a lower-rate economic environment, quickly establishing the Layer 1 narrative as the top-trending sector in the industry.
This speculative appetite was further validated by a massive 107 per cent surge in overall derivatives volume, alongside a steady rise in open interest, indicating that fresh institutional and retail capital was actively flowing into leveraged altcoin positions. This distinct shift in internal market dynamics indicates that the 24-hour rally was not merely a passive, index-wide response to stock market trends but rather a calculated rotation into major alternative assets, which could signal a sustained period of altcoin momentum if the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio continues to strengthen.
From a strict technical and structural standpoint, the near-term market outlook remains distinctively bullish but faces immediate hurdles that will test the true conviction of spot buyers. Bitcoin successfully broke above its critical 7-day Simple Moving Average of US$63,476 and is currently working to solidify the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near US$63,619 as a new baseline of technical support.
If the asset can decisively hold its ground above this pivotal US$63,619 line, the immediate path of least resistance points directly toward the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level located at US$65,006. Analysts must remain cautious, as 24-hour spot trading volume decreased by 21.33 per cent during this breakout, indicating a slight divergence between price appreciation and absolute spot market participation.
A failure to attract consistent spot buying volume at these elevated levels could lead to a rapid unwind of recent leveraged gains, potentially triggering a swift technical pullback toward the 50 per cent Fibonacci support level anchored at US$62,498.
Looking at the digital asset market as a collective whole, the aggregate valuation is currently testing a monumental technical resistance ceiling at US$2.25T, a level that represents the recent swing high for the total crypto market cap.
The immediate future of this macro-driven momentum now hinges entirely on the upcoming Producer Price Index data scheduled for release on July 15. If the incoming wholesale inflation figures confirm the disinflationary trajectory established by the Consumer Price Index print, the market will likely gain the fundamental backing needed to clear the US$2.25T barrier.
A successful technical breakout above this overhead supply zone would officially open the doors for a broader market expansion targeting the US$2.31T to US$2.38T extension zone. If the wholesale inflation data springs an unpleasant surprise on investors, the market may face a stern technical rejection at the current ceiling, resulting in a healthy period of consolidation or a temporary retreat down to the well-established US$2.14T to US$2.20T support band.
This rapid market recovery proves that while internal crypto mechanics like short liquidations and sector rotations dictate the immediate velocity of price moves, global macroeconomic liquidity remains the ultimate puppet master of valuation. The immediate trading bias for the market leans toward continued bullish momentum, but this optimistic outlook demands absolute validation beyond a single day of frantic short covering.
To transform this sharp relief rally into a legitimate, long-term market recovery, Bitcoin must comfortably sustain its position above the US$63,619 technical floor while simultaneously attracting consistent, positive institutional exchange-traded fund inflows in the coming days.
Investors must closely monitor both the immediate technical pivot points and the incoming wholesale inflation data, as the tension between overhead technical resistance and shifting global interest rate expectations will determine whether this impressive rally marks the beginning of a prolonged expansion or simply a temporary pause in a broader macroeconomic correction.


Source: https://e27.co/is-the-us63619-fibonacci-level-strong-enough-to-prevent-a-total-unwind-back-down-to-us62498-20260715/
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Anndy Lian
Top 100 B2B Thought Leaders, Analysts & Influencers You Should Work With In 2026 (APAC)
Thanks, Thinkers 360, for putting me on the list of Top 100 B2B Thought Leaders, Analysts & Influencers You Should Work With In 2026 (APAC).

Source:
Top 100 B2B Thought Leaders, Analysts & Influencers You Should Work With In 2026 (APAC)
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Anndy Lian
Regulation crypto is here: The 400-page rule that could kill or save American crypto innovation
The United States digital asset ecosystem faces a precarious turning point today as sweeping regulatory changes collide with severe macroeconomic shocks. The Securities and Exchange Commission recently advanced its extensive Regulation Crypto rule package to formal White House review. This comprehensive market framework moves the federal government away from case-by-case enforcement actions toward a predictable regime for token distribution and capital formation. This regulatory progression arrives exactly as intense macroeconomic headwinds reshape digital asset valuations in real time.
The entire cryptocurrency market capitalisation contracted by 2.07 per cent to US$2.15T in a single 24-hour period. This rapid decline highlights the extreme vulnerability of speculative assets when geopolitical instability strikes the global financial system. During this period of uncertainty, digital assets showed an 87 per cent correlation with traditional gold. This strong correlation indicates that investors are increasingly treating top-tier cryptocurrencies as traditional macro hedges during periods of sudden international tension.
The movement of the 400+page Regulation Crypto document into the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs initiates an imminent pre-publication phase. Once the executive branch concludes this comprehensive scrutiny, the regulatory agency will publish the extensive text in the Federal Register. This publication will trigger a formal public comment period where industry participants and lawmakers can actively lobby for critical modifications.
The commission designed this regulatory push to work alongside the CLARITY Act currently before Congress. While the pending congressional legislation explicitly divides market oversight between the commodity and securities watchdogs, the administrative rulemaking focuses primarily on practical fundraising pathways.
If the legislative path remains gridlocked, the federal administrative agency will likely establish this rulebook as the default framework for domestic digital assets. Prominent political figures, particularly Senate Democrats, already argue that the commission is attempting to legislate through administrative rules rather than waiting for congressional authorisation.
The capital formation proposals embedded within the new framework have the potential to radically alter how digital asset projects raise capital within the United States. The proposed text outlines a four-year startup exemption that permits emerging projects to raise up to US$5,000,000 annually using structured disclosures rather than full registration.
For mature issuers, a secondary tier allows capital raises of up to US$75,000,000 per year under a significantly lighter regulatory burden. The framework also introduces a vital investment contract safe harbour. This safe harbour provides a clear mechanism for a token to exit its classification as a security once the original issuer permanently concludes all manager-led efforts.
The agency builds this concept on a joint taxonomy that distinguishes among digital commodities, collectibles, tools, stablecoins, and securities. This taxonomy establishes a baseline presumption that most tokens do not qualify as securities unless issuers explicitly market and sell them as investment contracts. These rules give domestic projects much clearer paths to raise capital and could reopen domestic funding channels that previously moved offshore.
Despite these structural regulatory developments, the immediate valuation of digital assets remains highly vulnerable to broader macroeconomic shocks and sudden liquidation cascades. A geopolitical risk-off cascade rippled across global asset classes and primarily drove the recent market decline.
Reports of United States and Iran military strikes over the Strait of Hormuz on 13 July caused global equities to retreat sharply. This macro-driven contraction rapidly translated into a violent unwind of speculative leverage across cryptocurrency spot and derivatives markets. The sudden panic forced over US$95,870,000 in Bitcoin liquidations within 24 hours. Long positions accounted for a staggering 92 per cent of that wiped-out capital.
The market absorbed a devastating one-two punch as the macroeconomic shock eroded risk appetite and forced selling from overleveraged positions, aggressively accelerating the downward price action. Traders must now watch for any de-escalation in geopolitical headlines because easing tensions could quickly relieve the immense selling pressure.
The short-term trajectory for digital assets remains highly sensitive to incoming economic data and subsequent monetary policy responses. Market participants have adopted a deeply cautious stance ahead of the 14 July United States Consumer Price Index report. Traders fear that a hot inflation print will force the Federal Reserve to maintain its restrictive monetary policy and hawkish rhetoric. The digital asset market capitalisation is currently testing a critical Fibonacci support level at US$2.13T, which represents a 61.8 per cent retracement.
A benign inflation report could stabilise prices and spark a steady rebound toward the recent US$2.15T pivot. An uncomfortably high inflation reading risks accelerating the sell-off toward a direct retest of the yearly low at US$2.04T. The persistent regulatory overhang from recent agency classifications compounds this negative sentiment. The complete absence of immediate positive catalysts leaves the valuation landscape highly exposed to these incoming external economic indicators.
The underlying price action of Bitcoin highlights the ongoing conflict between retail panic and deep-pocketed buyers. Bitcoin experienced a significant downward flush that terrified average investors before staging a rapid recovery to climb back above the US$62,000 threshold. The price range between US$60,000 and US$61,000 has been a major technical battleground for several months. The brief drop below this accumulation zone acted as a classic bear trap.
The last time the asset dropped below this critical level, the market crashed to the US$58,000 mark. By reclaiming the US$62,000 level, buyers successfully absorbed the immediate selling pressure and removed the initial selling force from the market. The daily time frame’s structural outlook looks significantly healthier, with Bitcoin trading above this zone. The next major horizontal overhead resistance sits at approximately US$64,000. Clearing that specific hurdle will likely spark a quick return to all-time highs because sellers appear to be running out of momentum.
Underlying network metrics further validate the resilience of the primary cryptocurrency and reveal that smart money is actively accumulating during this market weakness. While regulated spot exchange-traded funds have experienced visible bleeding, on-chain tracking metrics paint a completely different picture behind the curtain. Whale addresses completely ignored the retail panic and refused to sell during the sudden price drop.
A recent Bitfinex report indicates that addresses holding 1,000 BTC or more aggressively expanded their holdings over a brief two-week window. These massive entities added more than 270,000 BTC to their vaults while the spot premium remained highly volatile. This massive accumulation represents an influx of more than US$16,700,000,000 in purchasing power. This data clearly demonstrates that sophisticated entities are treating the geopolitical panic and regulatory uncertainty as a generational buying opportunity.
The convergence of massive institutional accumulation, macroeconomic volatility, and shifting regulatory boundaries suggests that the domestic digital asset industry is entering a highly mature phase. The era of regulation by enforcement is gradually yielding to a structured regime that favours capitalised issuers capable of navigating complex legal systems. The impending legal battles will determine whether the executive branch can successfully implement these sweeping changes and provide the clarity that institutional capital demands.
Retail investors continue to obsess over daily fluctuations driven by international conflict and inflation prints. The largest entities in the space are quietly establishing massive architectural positions in anticipation of a fully regulated future. This ongoing transfer of wealth from panicked retail traders to convicted institutional holders will ultimately dictate the next major expansion cycle for the entire digital asset ecosystem.

Source:
https://e27.co/regulation-crypto-is-here-the-400-page-rule-that-could-kill-or-save-american-crypto-innovation-20260714/
The post Regulation crypto is here: The 400-page rule that could kill or save American crypto innovation appeared first on Anndy Lian by Anndy Lian.

Anndy Lian
The US$65,000 and US$1,850 question: Can we hold this level after CPI release?
The digital asset market currently presents a fascinating divergence in momentum as investors navigate a complex macroeconomic landscape. Bitcoin recently climbed 0.64 per cent to reach US$64,226.68 over a standard 24-hour trading period. This specific movement slightly trailed the broader market gain of 0.83 per cent. Meanwhile, Ethereum demonstrated vastly superior strength, surging 2.98 per cent to US$1,837.72 in the exact same timeframe.
These distinct price actions reflect fundamentally different underlying catalysts driving each network. Bitcoin relies heavily on institutional capital flows and broad macroeconomic correlations. Ethereum draws its current strength from tangible ecosystem utility and decisive technical breakouts. Both major assets now face a critical juncture as the market eagerly awaits the June United States Consumer Price Index report on July 14. This crucial inflation data will heavily influence overall risk sentiment and dictate the near-term trajectory for the entire cryptocurrency sector.
Institutional demand currently anchors the primary Bitcoin narrative. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their first weekly net inflow in over two months. The sector attracted US$197 million for the week ending July 10. This massive influx successfully broke an eight-week outflow streak that previously drained over US$8 billion from the sector. BlackRock led this impressive resurgence. Their IBIT exchange-traded fund alone captured US$292 million in net inflows. This substantial capital injection signals a potential halt to sustained institutional selling and provides a fundamental floor for the asset price.
Furthermore, Bitcoin exhibits a strong 75 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 over the past week. This high correlation strongly indicates a macro-driven move rather than an isolated crypto phenomenon. This dynamic illustrates how traditional finance increasingly dictates the rhythm of cryptocurrency valuations. The asset also experienced a distinct defensive rotation. Bitcoin dominance increased to 58.39 per cent while major altcoins like XRP and Dogecoin significantly underperformed. Investors clearly sought perceived safety within the largest digital asset during this period of uncertainty.
Technical indicators reveal a cautious posture for the leading cryptocurrency. The asset trades above its seven-day Simple Moving Average near US$63,490. Momentum remains neutral with the 14-day Relative Strength Index sitting at exactly 52. The immediate psychological resistance stands at US$65,000. A failure to hold current levels risks a drop toward the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement at US$63,619. Such technical indicators suggest that buyers currently lack the aggressive conviction needed to push prices significantly higher without external catalysts.
Market participants must watch for sustained inflows over the coming weeks to confirm a genuine trend reversal rather than just a temporary pause. The combination of halted exchange-traded fund outflows and a defensive market posture provides near-term support. Conviction remains fragile ahead of critical inflation data. The primary focus remains on whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the US$65,000 level after the July 14 Consumer Price Index data release. Traders will closely observe the volume accompanying any breakout attempts to ensure genuine buying pressure supports the advance.
Ethereum presents a starkly different growth narrative because concrete ecosystem developments propel it forward. The launch of Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 network, significantly boosted market sentiment. This new network utilises ETH for gas fees and has rapidly attracted substantial capital. Users bridged over US$141 million in ETH to the network shortly after launch. The decentralised exchange volume on this new layer briefly surpassed that of the Ethereum mainnet. This real adoption signals increased utility and genuine demand for the underlying token.
The move derives its strength from tangible growth in the network’s use case rather than pure speculation. This infrastructure expansion demonstrates that builders recognise the inherent value and security of the base layer. The Ethereum Ecosystem category currently ranks as the second most trending narrative, indicating clear capital rotation into the network and its associated tokens. Market participants recognise this fundamental shift in utility as a major positive catalyst for future price appreciation and network expansion across the broader digital asset landscape.
The price action confirms this shift in momentum for the second-largest digital asset. Ethereum broke above a descending trendline and formed a golden cross on its hourly chart against Bitcoin. Traders must watch for a sustained trade above the 50-day moving average near US$2,000 to confirm a stronger bullish signal. The asset faces immediate resistance between US$1,830 and US$1,850. A successful breakout could target the high-liquidity zone between US$1,950 and US$2,100. This specific zone holds significant short positions that could trigger rapid liquidation.
Conversely, firm support exists between US$1,720 and US$1,740. A break below this level risks a severe drop to US$1,550. The path of least resistance remains cautiously higher provided key support holds. Market makers will likely adjust their spreads accordingly as volatility expectations shift around these pivotal price levels. Market participants should closely watch the price reaction at US$1,850 and the Consumer Price Index print for directional clarity. Sustained momentum above these critical thresholds will likely attract additional algorithmic trading capital and reinforce the broader bullish thesis.
My perspective on this current market environment highlights a clear bifurcation in asset drivers. Bitcoin operates primarily as a macroeconomic beta asset. Its price action tightly couples with traditional equity markets and institutional capital flows. The reversal of the exchange-traded fund outflow streak provides immense relief to holders. The conviction behind this bullish stance remains fragile until the market digests upcoming inflation metrics.
Ethereum, conversely, demonstrates idiosyncratic strength rooted in network utility. The Robinhood Chain launch proves that developers and users actively seek Ethereum infrastructure for real-world applications. This fundamental utility separates the asset from mere market speculation and provides a robust foundation for future appreciation. Both assets now converge on a single critical catalyst.
The July 14 Consumer Price Index release will serve as the arbiter of near-term market direction. A hotter-than-expected inflation print could renew selling pressure across the board and invalidate current technical breakouts. Favourable data could accelerate the current cautious uptrend. Investors must maintain a highly disciplined approach. They should monitor the US$65,000 level for Bitcoin and the US$1,850 barrier for Ethereum. The ability of these assets to reclaim and hold these thresholds post-inflation data will definitively define the market trajectory for the remainder of the third quarter and establish the baseline for future institutional allocation strategies.


Source: https://e27.co/the-us65000-and-us1850-question-can-we-hold-this-level-after-cpi-release-20260713/
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Anndy Lian
Why Bitcoin’s move to US$63K has nothing to do with crypto and everything to do with Iran
Bitcoin recently climbed 0.96 per cent to reach US$62,994.44 over the last 24 hours. This slight outperformance against a flat broader market highlights a profound shift in investor psychology. We currently witness a strong correlation between digital assets and traditional risk instruments. This dynamic proves that macroeconomic forces now dictate cryptocurrency price action far more than isolated blockchain developments.
These movements through a lens of institutional liquidity and macroeconomic correlation. Speculative financial activities like cryptocurrency trading often resemble gambling, but they offer better odds than traditional casinos when participants understand the underlying macroeconomic drivers.
The current rally stems primarily from improved global sentiment rather than any fundamental upgrade to the Bitcoin network. We must look at the broader economic picture to understand this price discovery phase. Recognising these underlying patterns allows us to separate genuine market shifts from temporary noise.
The primary catalyst for this renewed risk appetite is the easing of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump stated on July 9 that Iran wants to negotiate a deal. This single comment immediately lowered oil prices and softened United States Treasury yields. Traders quickly realised that a broader military conflict remains unlikely.
Consequently, lower energy costs reduce the urgency for inflation hedging. This environment drastically improves liquidity conditions for speculative assets. When bond yields drop, capital naturally flows toward higher-risk instruments in search of better returns.
The market operates on these predictable liquidity cycles. We see this exact pattern repeat whenever geopolitical fears subside, and central bank policies hint at future easing. Investors simply rotate capital back into risk assets to capture yield. This relentless pursuit of returns defines the modern financial landscape and drives continuous asset price inflation.
Traditional equity markets clearly reflected this shift in sentiment on July 9. The S&P 500 climbed 60.93 points to close at 7,543.64, representing a 0.81 per cent gain. The Nasdaq Composite surged even higher, adding 336.24 points to reach 26,206.89, a 1.30 per cent increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted solid gains, rising 139.02 points to finish at 52,487.41.
Technology and artificial intelligence stocks led this charge in the American markets. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF jumped 2.5 per cent, while Micron Technology shares skyrocketed 4.5 per cent. Investors viewed the recent semiconductor sell-off as a prime buying opportunity. This massive influx of capital into technology shares perfectly mirrors the recovery we see in digital assets. Both sectors thrive on cheap liquidity and optimistic forward guidance. When the cost of capital decreases, valuation multiples expand across the board, benefiting growth-oriented companies the most.
Global markets followed this American optimism into the Asian trading sessions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed steadily, mirroring the Wall Street rally. South Korea experienced a massive surge, with the Kospi index rallying three per cent. SK Hynix drove this Asian momentum by raising US$26.5 billion in a massive American depositary receipt offering on the Nasdaq. This colossal capital raise underscores the insatiable global demand for artificial intelligence and semiconductor infrastructure.
International investors clearly recognise the long-term value of these technology sectors. This global capital flow reinforces the macroeconomic thesis driving both traditional equities and digital assets. We operate in a deeply interconnected global financial system where liquidity flows seamlessly across borders and asset classes.
Within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, we observe a clear defensive rotation toward high-liquidity assets. Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.35 per cent as capital fled smaller, riskier altcoins. The broader market sentiment remains deeply fearful, with the Fear and Greed Index sitting at a dismal 28. Despite this pervasive fear, spot trading volume held steady while derivatives volume plummeted 19.94 per cent.
This divergence tells a very specific story. Selective spot buying drove the recent rally, with no leveraged speculation. Smart money accumulates positions quietly when the masses panic. We need to see a rebound in stablecoin trading volume to confirm that fresh capital enters the ecosystem.
Until then, we merely witness existing capital reshuffling within the Bitcoin network. Observing these internal flows provides crucial insights into the true health of the broader digital asset ecosystem. Commodity and bond markets further validate this risk-on narrative.
United States crude oil settled at US$71.83 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped to around US$76 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.55 per cent, signalling a flight away from safe-haven government debt. Markets stabilised after an initial jump in oil prices when the interim ceasefire announcement caused temporary panic.
Technical indicators present a cautiously bullish near-term outlook with significant overhead resistance. Bitcoin currently consolidates just below the major resistance level of US$64,700. The 50-day simple moving average sits at US$65,624, presenting the first major hurdle. The 200-day simple moving average looms even higher at US$74,225, confirming that the medium-term structure remains corrective.
If buyers maintain control and hold the price above US$62,500, we could easily test that US$64,700 resistance. A break below US$61,300 opens the door for a swift drop toward US$60,000. The immediate direction hinges entirely on the US$1.4 billion options expiry happening today, July 10. Market makers will defend their positions aggressively around these key levels.
Traders must watch the daily close closely to confirm the next major trend. Ignoring these critical technical boundaries often leads to severe capital destruction in highly volatile markets. Traders quickly factored in a potential return to diplomatic negotiations. This entire sequence of events highlights the predictable nature of human psychology in financial markets. Fear drives prices down, and relief drives them back up.
As we navigate this complex landscape, we must rely on independent analysis rather than mainstream narratives. The convergence of macroeconomic policy, geopolitical events, and technical market structure will ultimately determine the future of our global financial infrastructure. True decentralisation requires us to understand these macro forces deeply.
We must also remain vigilant against the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies, which threaten to introduce unprecedented surveillance into our daily financial lives. Preserving privacy and maintaining true decentralisation demand that we master these complex dynamics to successfully navigate the inevitable shifts in our rapidly evolving financial system.

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoins-move-to-us63k-has-nothing-to-do-with-crypto-and-everything-to-do-with-iran-20260710/
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Anndy Lian
Why US$1.4 billion in Bitcoin longs could drag Bitcoin down to US$53,500?
Bitcoin recently experienced a 1.94 per cent decline over a 24-hour period, settling at US$62,359.14. This downward movement underperformed a slightly weaker broader market. The mainstream narrative often attributes such drops to random market sentiment or fleeting panic. A deeper analysis reveals a precise combination of macroeconomic shocks and derivatives mechanics driving this specific price action. The current environment demands that we separate genuine structural shifts from the noise of leveraged speculation.
The primary catalyst for this recent selloff stems directly from escalating geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump declared the existing ceasefire with Iran completely over on July 8 and explicitly warned of potential military strikes. This rhetoric immediately sparked intense fears regarding severe oil supply disruptions across the Middle East. Crude prices spiked, triggering a massive risk-off shift across global financial markets. Traditional investors fled to safety, and Bitcoin traded exactly like a risk asset in this highly charged environment.
The digital currency sold off alongside equities as macro uncertainty dominated trader psychology. The market will continue suppressing risk appetite until traders price in a clear de-escalation in this specific geopolitical rhetoric. Global supply chains remain highly sensitive to Middle Eastern stability, and any hint of armed conflict instantly reprices risk assets across every major exchange and traditional brokerage.
A severe derivatives liquidation cascade significantly amplified the downward price movement beyond the initial geopolitical headline. The sharp initial drop triggered massive forced closures of leveraged positions across major exchanges. Data indicates that these platforms liquidated approximately US$71.24 million in Bitcoin positions within that 24-hour window. Long positions accounted for the vast majority of these closures. This forced selling created a vicious feedback loop that punished late buyers. Overleveraged bulls watched their positions evaporate while automatic market selling accelerated the decline.
I have always viewed excessive leverage in crypto as a form of gambling. The current liquidation event perfectly illustrates the danger of ignoring this fundamental truth and relying on borrowed capital. Exchanges automatically execute these market orders the moment margin requirements fail, completely removing human discretion from the equation and ensuring maximum pain for late participants.
This brings us to the widespread confusion surrounding liquidation heatmaps and the glaring US$1.4 billion in Bitcoin longs currently sitting in the danger zone. Many retail traders mistakenly believe this massive liquidity magnet guarantees a price visit to US$53,500. They fundamentally misunderstand the core mechanics of these charts. A liquidity magnet simply represents a zone where leveraged positions concentrate heavily. If the price moves toward this zone, forced liquidations create a cascade of selling that accelerates the move.
The market only reaches this destination if sufficient selling pressure exists. Without overwhelming downward momentum, the market leaves that magnet entirely untested. Smart traders utilise these maps to identify where volatility might explode rather than treating them as absolute price predictions. Price action ultimately depends on the balance between genuine spot demand and speculative leverage, not merely on the location of clustered margin positions.
We must evaluate both the bearish and bullish arguments objectively to understand the true market structure. The bearish case relies heavily on the crowded long positions sitting below the current price. Bitcoin is currently struggling to reclaim the US$64,000 level, and leverage continues to build across the ecosystem. Bears argue that a flush toward the largest liquidation cluster will inevitably reset the market and clear out the excess speculation. The bullish case highlights the strong spot buyers actively defending the US$60,000 to US$62,000 region.
Several analysts point out that the larger liquidity pockets actually sit much closer to the US$55,000 to US$57,000 range. Growing optimism around potential interest rate cuts provides a strong fundamental backdrop. Dip buyers have sufficient capital to absorb selling pressure before a deeper cascade begins. Institutional accumulation patterns suggest that major players view these dips as prime accumulation opportunities rather than reasons to panic and exit their positions.
Technical indicators provide further clarity on this battle between spot demand and leveraged positioning. The market recently rejected Bitcoin at the US$63,600 resistance level. The asset now tests the key Fibonacci 50 per cent retracement level situated at US$62,497.95. A large cluster of long positions sits dangerously close to the US$61,000 mark. A drop into this specific zone could easily trigger another violent liquidation wave.
Market participants must also closely watch the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes. These minutes have the power to sway rate-cut expectations and provide the next major macro catalyst. The current trend shows decidedly bearish characteristics in the very short term. The broader market is actively seeking a definitive directional signal to guide the next major leg. Central bank communications often dictate the broader liquidity environment, making these documents essential reading for anyone managing substantial digital asset portfolios.
The combination of a sudden macro shock and a derivatives flush has undeniably pushed Bitcoin lower and created substantial bearish pressure. The path forward hinges entirely on two critical factors. First, the market needs clear geopolitical developments to remove the macro overhang. Second, Bitcoin must demonstrate the ability to defend its major support levels. The immediate key watch centres on whether the asset can reclaim and hold above the US$62,500 level.
A successful defence here opens the door for a rebound toward US$63,600. A daily close below US$62,000 invites a much deeper correction toward the US$60,000 to US$59,000 support area. Real spot demand will ultimately overpower reckless leveraged positioning. Those who understand this distinction will navigate the current volatility with precision, while the gamblers will simply provide the liquidity for the next major directional move in this endlessly fascinating market.

Source: https://e27.co/why-us1-4-billion-in-bitcoin-longs-could-drag-bitcoin-down-to-us53500-20260709/
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Anndy Lian
Community is critical for meme coin growth, Anndy Lian notes
Anndy Lian questions the dependence on Binance founder CZ to drive the price of new coins upward, referencing the history of Binance Smart Chain (BSC) memes and the success of projects like Pepe that did not rely on such involvement.
Lian argues there are no shortcuts to achieving sustainable growth in the crypto space and emphasizes the importance of building a strong community.


Lian previously reported the crypto market dropped 1.11% to $2.22 trillion as Bitcoin led selling and correlations with traditional assets increased, according to recent data. He has also noted that Elon Musk’s net worth reached $1.2 trillion, equal to 3% of nominal U.S. GDP, surpassing Rockefeller’s 1.5% in 1937, as stated in an earlier article.

Source: https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/2624275-community-meme-coin-success/

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Anndy Lian
Why Bitcoin’s record on chain activity is not the price guarantee you think it is
Bitcoin has retreated by 0.52 per cent over a 24h period, sliding to US$63,593.12 and underperforming a generally flat broader market. This downward movement stems primarily from a firm technical rejection at key resistance zones alongside cooling momentum following a strong weekly rally. Sellers emerged to halt the July advance, which had reached 8.4 per cent before hitting a known technical ceiling near US$65,800. Compounding this technical slowdown is a notable 13.95 per cent drop in 24h trading volume, indicating reduced buying conviction after the market booked four consecutive daily gains last week.
Beyond the immediate price action and cooling technical indicators, underlying demand metrics point to broader institutional hesitation in Western markets. United States spot demand remains structurally subdued, as evidenced by the Coinbase premium remaining negative for over 50 days. This persistent discount suggests that domestic retail and institutional investors are withholding aggressive buy orders, leaving spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows highly inconsistent. At the same time, aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures markets has declined. This reduction in open interest signals that speculative leverage is actively leaving the market rather than expanding, leaving recent price gains vulnerable to pullbacks without a strong institutional bid to support the base.
While the short-term price action remains constrained by these technical ceilings and cooling derivatives markets, the underlying Bitcoin network is experiencing an unprecedented surge in utility. On-chain data indicate that Bitcoin is processing its highest sustained transaction volume in its 17-year history. The network is averaging approximately 670,000 transactions per day throughout 2026, nearly doubling last year’s activity and approaching prior all-time highs. A deeper analysis reveals that recent data indicate the network processes an average of 673,822 transactions per day. This broad-based rebound in usage is characterised by a high volume of small transactions and emerging applications, rather than by large-value transfers alone.
Specific daily metrics confirm the historic scale of this on-chain activity. According to block data, the Bitcoin network processed 862,979 transactions on June 23, 2026, marking the 3rd-busiest single day in the protocol’s history. This explosive activity lifted the daily average for June 2026 to 651,655 transactions, a 90 per cent increase over the June 2025 daily average of 342,866 transactions. Both the median and average daily transaction counts across 2026 now comfortably exceed the full-year totals for 2024 and 2025. This structural shift is driven largely by an increase in smaller transactions, alongside innovative use cases such as Bitcoin non-fungible tokens and timestamping services that write data directly to the blockchain.
This high transaction count introduces a complex dynamic for the ecosystem, as it reflects a diverse mix of traditional value transfers, exchange settlements, whale movements, and newer programmable applications. For everyday users, this elevated activity demands close observation of average fees, mempool sizes, and layer 2 sidechain congestion to determine if the base layer can handle the load. The current market outlook remains neutral to bearish below immediate resistance, though the primary trend hinges on the US$63,619 support level, which aligns with the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci regression. If Bitcoin can defend this support level, it sets up another potential run toward US$65,800, whereas a daily close below this level risks an immediate drop to US$61,377.
The market’s immediate direction is closely tied to broader macroeconomic shocks and sudden geopolitical escalations that are fracturing global investor confidence. Major global financial markets fell sharply as escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with a steep semiconductor sell-off, broke the record-setting momentum on Wall Street. Following Iran’s targeting of three commercial tankers in the critical Strait of Hormuz, the United States military executed powerful retaliatory airstrikes. Simultaneously, the United States Treasury revoked a vital waiver that had previously allowed Iran to sell crude oil globally, triggering fears of severe supply disruptions and sending global energy benchmarks rocketing upward.
The impact of these energy market disruptions was immediate and volatile across global oil benchmarks. Brent crude surged by over five per cent to breach US$75.70 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 5.3 per cent to finish trading above US$72.20 per barrel. This inflationary energy shock hit equity markets precisely as technology stocks suffered an independent structural rout. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell significantly, led by a 4.65 per cent plunge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Investor confidence in long-term market dominance and pricing power evaporated after reports that a Chinese startup, DeepSeek, is independently developing its own artificial intelligence chip architecture, shaking the core growth thesis of established technology giants.
This shift in technology sector sentiment highlights a growing disconnect between blockbuster corporate earnings and loftier investor expectations. Samsung Electronics reported record preliminary quarterly profits, yet its stock still plunged 6.9 per cent in Asian trading, illustrating that market expectations for artificial intelligence build-out metrics have reached unsustainably high levels. The resulting sector pullback forced major tech components lower, with Micron falling 4.7 per cent and SanDisk retreating by 7.3 per cent. These equity losses were exacerbated by macro pressures in fixed-income markets, where the United States 10-Year Treasury yield edged up to 4.556 per cent, compressing stock valuations across high-growth sectors.
Faced with these overlapping pressures, investors are demonstrating severe caution ahead of the afternoon release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the June meeting. This policy document represents the very first official communication issued under the leadership of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Market participants are waiting to see whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 7-day exponential moving average near US$62,702 or if macro comments will force a deeper flush toward lower support levels. I said the same yesterday, too.
The combination of technical resistance, weak spot demand, semiconductor sector anxiety, and escalating energy prices has forced a neutral range consolidation, proving that even record-breaking on-chain utility cannot completely shield digital assets from macro volatility.

Source: https://e27.co/why-bitcoins-record-on-chain-activity-is-not-the-price-guarantee-you-think-it-is-20260708/
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Anndy Lian
Beyond payments: India aims to architect Indonesia’s digital future
India’s wildly popular digital payments system, which began as a way for people to send money instantly by phone, could help the country turn one of its biggest domestic technology successes into a tool of diplomacy, analysts say. That opportunity is coming into focus in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, where officials are studying whether India’s low-cost digital systems can be adapted to their own needs.
The talks centre on the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), India’s instant payment system launched about a decade ago that has become one of the most visible parts of the country’s digital transformation.
New Delhi has already signed agreements with several nations, including Singapore, to facilitate cross-border payments, but analysts say Jakarta’s interest appears to go further.
According to a report in The Times of India on Monday, Indonesia is looking at India’s broader digital public infrastructure as a possible blueprint for building its own sovereign system. Several Indonesian delegations have also recently visited India to study public policy initiatives as Jakarta seeks to strengthen food security and healthcare services.
Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based adviser to governments on blockchain and information technology, said a successful digital collaboration between India and Indonesia could serve as a “massive proof of concept for the Global South, particularly within Asean”.
“Many developing nations are actively seeking alternatives to expensive, proprietary Western financial networks or heavily centralised systems,” he said.
“By demonstrating that scalable, open-protocol digital ecosystems can be successfully adapted across borders, India and Indonesia are establishing a highly attractive sovereign blueprint for digital transformation.”
Indonesia has formally set a target to become a global digital economic leader by 2045, aligning with its centennial milestone.
Lian cautioned, however, that a collaboration between India and Indonesia would require incorporating safeguards because adopting systems across different regulatory environments carried risks such as data privacy breaches and cybersecurity vulnerabilities.
“Second, there is the risk of ‘model mismatch’. India’s solutions are tailored to its specific demographic and bureaucratic realities, which may not translate perfectly to other nations without rigorous localisation,” he added.
Over-reliance on a single foreign partner for core digital infrastructure could also raise long-term “technological sovereignty concerns”, Lian said, urging countries to carefully balance digital efficiency with technological independence.
UPI has anchored a digital revolution in India that has helped bring large sections of its teeming population into a formal economy. Indian nationals can now access a range of welfare programmes through digital infrastructure, including the sharing of medical records.
Lian said India could leverage its digital initiative across Asia as it would enable millions of Indian tourists to make payments when visiting countries such as Indonesia, and also create a financial pipeline for Indian businesses and investors operating in Southeast Asia.
“Geopolitically, this elevates India from a participant in the global digital economy to a primary architect of its infrastructure. This is not merely about payments; it is a vector for exporting India’s broader tech ecosystem,” he said.
India’s digital services have expanded beyond its traditional bread-and-butter IT ones in the last five to six years to include fintech start-ups, cybersecurity firms and other enterprises.
“Beijing will undoubtedly view the India-Indonesia digital alignment as a strategic encroachment on its sphere of technological influence,” Lian said.
“India’s digital diplomacy is undeniably strengthening as it pivots from merely exporting technology to providing comprehensive governance blueprints.”
By sharing foundational digital frameworks like UPI and Aadhaar, a national digital identity base, India could offer peer-tested solutions, he said.
Jamus Lim, an associate professor of economics at the ESSEC Business School, noted that many back-end systems in the region already relied on Indian technical expertise.
“There are natural network effects that will reward first movers that establish the industry standard,” he said, adding that the faster India was able to roll out agreements using its standards, the better its position would be for South-South partnerships and agreements.
Raj Kapoor, president of India Blockchain Alliance, said leveraging its digital public infrastructure had become “arguably India’s most distinctive soft-power asset right now, because it’s cheap to export and it plays well as South-South solidarity”.
“Historically, countries exported infrastructure through roads, ports and power plants. Today, nations increasingly export digital infrastructure. India is emerging as one of the few countries capable of exporting an entire governance,” he said.
India should see collaboration in UPI “not as the destination, but as the opening chapter”, Kapoor said.
“We should use Indonesia as the flagship Asean case study to accelerate parallel talks with Vietnam, the Philippines, and others as first-mover advantage matters in standards-setting.”

Source: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3359736/beyond-payments-india-aims-architect-indonesias-digital-future

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Anndy Lian
Bitcoin rebounded as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz faded
The global financial landscape on July 7, 2026, presents a complex environment of sector rotations and shifting macroeconomic sentiments. Technology shares and semiconductor companies face notable downward pressure today as investors actively move capital into alternative sectors to position their portfolios for the second half of the year.
This broader market transition directly impacts digital assets, where Bitcoin exhibits a notable resurgence. The premier digital asset recently advanced 0.63 per cent over the past 24 hours, bringing its price to exactly US$63791.12. This upward trajectory allows the asset to slightly outperform a flat broader market, drawing intense interest from market observers who track these capital flows across global networks.
I view this development as a clear signal that traditional finance dynamics increasingly dictate cryptocurrency valuations. Analysts note that Bitcoin maintains a strong 79.6 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 index and a 56.0 per cent correlation with gold. These figures indicate a shared asset-class sensitivity to interest-rate expectations and shifting global liquidity conditions.
The broader cryptocurrency market reflects this constructive momentum, pushing the total crypto market capitalisation toward US$2.2T. Bitcoin maintains a dominant position within this expansive ecosystem, commanding approximately 58 per cent market dominance. On major tracking platforms, the asset is actively trading around US$63799.25 today, with a substantial 24-hour trading volume of nearly US$35.93B. This immense liquidity supports the current price structure and signals a distinct shift from the corrective patterns that characterised the previous month.
A clear shift in macroeconomic sentiment creates the foundational catalyst for this market expansion. This macro relief operates alongside an abrupt turnaround in institutional exchange-traded fund flows. Softer employment data from the United States recently altered market expectations, leading many market participants to believe the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts in the near term.
This shift in sentiment directly benefits rate-sensitive assets as institutional players reallocate capital toward growth and alternative asset classes to front-run these policy changes. United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds simultaneously snapped a punishing 10-day streak of consecutive capital outflows. These investment vehicles recorded a substantial net inflow of US$221.72 million on July 2, which effectively arrested a period of intense institutional selling pressure.
This new capital represents a massive shift from June, a month that saw a record US$4.5B in total net outflows from these identical spot investment products. I believe this flow reversal marks the most critical fundamental driver of the current price action, confirming that institutional demand returns vigorously when prices reach attractive valuation bands.
This institutional stabilisation carries profound implications for the immediate future of digital assets. The transition from aggressive capital flight to net positive inflows confirms underlying market strength, and traders recognise this structural change as a primary driver of recent market stability. Spot buying provides a solid floor for price discovery. The asset recently touched an intraday high around US$63835 on July 6, successfully reclaiming the US$63000 threshold for the first time in two weeks.
This critical advance secured a 3.6 per cent weekly gain, effectively erasing the vast majority of the losses incurred during the final weeks of June. The market has now engineered a recovery of nearly 10 per cent from the early July lows, which dipped near the US$58,000 mark. The price specifically bounced off an absolute low of US$58293. I assess that this specific recovery arc demonstrates severe resilience because buyers clearly stepped in exactly when the asset looked most vulnerable.
Institutional spot buying laid the groundwork for this recovery, before a powerful derivatives phenomenon provided the fuel for rapid upward expansion. Market data reveals that the initial price gains triggered a severe short squeeze that caught overleveraged bearish traders entirely out of position. Derivatives platforms recorded a massive 291 per cent spike in 24-hour liquidations, driving total wiped positions to US$227 million. Short positions bore the brunt of this destruction, accounting for US$148 million of the total liquidation figure.
Separate tracking reports indicate that short liquidations around the specific bounce point totalled approximately US$214 million, forming a core component of nearly US$186 million in total leveraged positions that were completely wiped out. This cascade of forced buybacks occurred because short sellers had to purchase spot asset units to close out their failing positions. This automated upward spiral aggressively amplified the organic spot demand, essentially forcing bears to buy the asset they bet against.
This volatility in the derivatives market fundamentally altered the internal leverage structure of the cryptocurrency markets. The average funding rate across major futures platforms rose sharply by 62 per cent as the short squeeze unfolded. This elevated funding rate indicates that marketplace participants now pay a premium to maintain long positions, reflecting a sudden wave of bullish enthusiasm among retail and institutional derivatives traders.
This dynamic introduces a layer of fragility to the current market framework. The market becomes highly susceptible to sudden volatility injections when leverage spikes rapidly alongside rising funding rates. Market participants must monitor these metrics closely to determine whether spot purchasing can keep pace with futures leverage. The market risks setting the stage for a sharp liquidation event in the opposite direction if spot demand falters. I remain cautious about chasing this rally precisely because derivatives largely drove the ultimate breakout.
The asset currently tests the upper boundaries of its established range from a technical perspective. The Fibonacci 38.2 per cent retracement level sits precisely at US$63619 today, transitioning from a formidable resistance ceiling into a crucial near-term support floor. Buyers must successfully defend this area along with the broader support zone between US$62500 and US$62800. A successful defence sets up a potential retest of the major resistance band located between US$64000 and US$65000.
Market participants generally agree that the bulls must engineer a clean break above the US$65000 to US$67000 zone to confirm a definitive trend reversal, an action that would invalidate the broader corrective structure completely. A failure to hold the line at US$62600, or at the lower US$61500 and US$61000 levels, would expose the market to severe downside risk. That failure could drive prices down toward the key US$60000 and US$59500 support levels, potentially forcing a retest of the high-US$58000 region. I interpret this chart setup as cautiously bullish but strictly range-bound until a decisive breakout occurs.
The immediate outlook faces a series of imminent macroeconomic challenges that will test this newfound optimism. Global equity benchmarks and traditional asset classes show signs of exhaustion today, and the mixed trading session on July 7 clearly demonstrates this fatigue. Profit-taking in the semiconductor sector dragged the Japan Nikkei index down by 0.7 per cent in Asian markets, while the South Korea Kospi index lost 0.91 per cent.
Blockbuster corporate announcements failed to ignite traditional equities, as Samsung shares declined despite the company posting impressive preliminary quarterly profits of 89.4 trillion won (US$58B). West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains steady below US$69 a barrel in the commodities sector, as cooling tensions in the Middle East cap oil upside. Spot gold dropped roughly 0.5 per cent to trade near US$4150 per ounce. The United States Dollar firmed up against major currencies, pushing the Japanese Yen toward the 162 level amid intense speculative pressure.
Fixed-income markets offer a clue into near-term capital direction amidst these fluctuating global metrics. United States 10-year Treasury yields recently drifted lower to 4.46 per cent following the soft employment reports. This yield compression signals that traditional investors actively factor in a looser monetary policy environment.
The ultimate validation of this thesis will arrive on July 9 when the Federal Reserve releases its official meeting minutes. This document is the primary macroeconomic trigger for the week, and its contents will determine whether the current relief rally becomes a sustainable uptrend. I anticipate that a dovish tone in these minutes will accelerate spot inflows, providing the fundamental catalyst that allows the asset to clear the final resistance levels and complete its structural recovery.
Market participants must practice strict risk management until the central bank formally reveals its policy stance, as macro triggers consistently override short-term technical patterns in this highly interconnected financial environment.


Source: https://e27.co/bitcoin-rebounded-as-tensions-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-faded-20260707/
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Anndy Lian
$60.4K Becomes ‘most important area:’ Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June near two-week highs with traders keen to see bullish continuation.
Key points:
BTC price action targets nearby liquidity as a trader names the “most important” support zone to hold next.
US stock-market performance gives analysis reason to believe that the good times will continue amid “record” retail risk appetite.
A stock-market correction is not out of the question, new warnings conclude, but Bitcoin should have already priced in the fallout.
Exchange inflow data reveals cooling panic among both retail and whale investors.
Crypto market sentiment is at monthly highs, on the cusp of exiting “extreme fear.”
Bitcoin key support emerges as bulls eye $64,000
Bitcoin kept up pressure on short positions into the weekly close, hitting $63,960 — its highest levels since June 23, per data from TradingView.
four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Total crypto short liquidations for the 24 hours to the time of writing were just over $100 million, CoinGlass reports.
vs. crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Commenting on low time frames, X account Exitpump was among those attributing the moves to liquidity hunts.
“Seeing aggressive selling from spot markets, spot CVD (yellow) trending down while perps CVD (blue) is flat,” they reported on Monday, referring to cumulative volume delta on exchange order books.
chart with order-book data. Source: Exitpump/X
In the event of a reversal downward, trader Killa called the zone between $60,400 and $60,900 Bitcoin’s “most important.”
“If we cannot hold this price region on a revisit, I’m afraid we are going to trend directly to the lows again. Something to watch out for next week,” the analyst told X followers.
chart. Source: Killa/X
As Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants still see Bitcoin’s bear-market low as yet to come — despite a growing number of bullish trend reversal signals.
Trader Roman, who was long bearish on , stayed optimistic on longer time frames this week.
“Still looking excellent to continue our reversal to see higher prices in the interim,” an X post read.
“I still have a feeling we put in one more macro low before the bottom is officially in, but there are dozens of macro reversal signs all over HTF.”
one-week chart. Source: Roman/X
Retail risk appetite hits record levels
Bitcoin’s waning ability to copy equities is under the microscope this week as US stock futures start higher after the holiday weekend.
While managed a trip to near two-week highs, Nasdaq 100 futures added 1% as analysts remain bullish on the broader US outlook.
“Although the S&P 500 is coming off a hot second quarter with a 15% gain, the index topped in early June and has yet to make a new high,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
“But the S&P 500 trading within a bullish continuation pattern and has been finding support at a key level.”
S&P 500 market data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company
Mosaic added that the average stock “has been rallying to new record highs.”
“That includes the equal-weight S&P 500, small-cap stocks with the Russell 2000 Index, and the NYSE advance/decline line. New highs minus new lows across major exchanges are jumping higher as well,” it noted.
As Cointelegraph reported, recent US inflation and labor-market data helped soften markets’ hawkish expectations for Federal Reserve policy last week.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool sees the Fed holding interest rates at current levels in both July and September.
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Another potential macro tailwind for Bitcoin comes in the form of retail investor demand for risk — despite the cohort’s crypto exodus this year. Analyzing options data, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter described retail risk appetite as being “at record levels.”
“Retail demand for short-term options has never been higher,” it reported on X.
This week, the Fed will release the minutes of its June meeting, where it likewise kept rates steady. Markets will also react to Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers, along with more employment data releases.
“We expect another volatile week ahead as markets brace for earnings season,” Kobeissi added.
Warning over pre-Midterm stock market correction
Looking ahead, not all market participants are convinced that the persistent stocks bull market will last. Among them is Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise.
“What if there is a bigger stock market correction right before the Midterms?” he queried in X posts on Monday, referring to upcoming US elections.
Dragosch flagged the latest data from the MacroQuant Equity Risk Model by macro analytics company BCA Research. This, he warned, was “flashing a bear market warning signal.”
An accompanying chart likened current readings to those last seen in late 2021, when Bitcoin saw the top of its previous bull market.
Source: Andre Dragosch/X
In an extended X post last week, Dragosch nonetheless reasoned that crypto markets had already priced in much of the worst-case scenario that could hit macro in the future: a stock market comedown and a US recession.
“In other words, even if a AI crash and a subsequent US recession materialized, much of that pain appears to be already reflected in Bitcoin prices, which points to reduced downside from here,” he summarized.
Dragosch gave Bitcoin a “decent chance” of outperforming the Nasdaq “on a relative basis over the coming months.”
Whales lead exchange inflow drop
New data reveals that Bitcoin investors cooled selling significantly in the second half of June — even as price set new multi-year lows.
In a QuickTake blog post, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirmed that inflows to exchanges had decreased from both retail and whale investors alike.
“Bitcoin whale activity on Binance has cooled sharply since mid-June, with the rolling 30-day value of whale inflows falling by nearly $2.4 billion,” contributor Amr Taha confirmed.
Retail investor inflows displayed a shallower rate of decline, falling from $10.02 billion on June 12 to $8.2 billion on July 6.
“Whale inflows fell at nearly twice the rate of retail inflows, reducing the relative role of large holders in exchange-bound Bitcoin supply. Meanwhile, the gap between retail and whale inflows widened from about $2.98 billion to $3.55 billion,” Taha continued.
Bitcoin whale exchange flows to Binance (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on whales’ overall market conviction improving around the lows.
CryptoQuant notes that exchange inflows are not an infallible signal of investors’ intent to sell.
“The key question now is whether Binance whale inflows stabilize around the current $4.65 billion level or continue moving lower,” Taha concluded.
“A further decline would reinforce the view that large Bitcoin holders are becoming less active on the exchange compared with the retail cohort.”
Crypto market fear “easing, not gone”
Bitcoin’s modest recovery was enough to boost crypto market sentiment considerably this week.
The latest readings from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index show that aggregate sentiment is on the verge of exiting “extreme fear” for the first time in over a month.
Fear & Greed measured 24/100 on Monday, more than double its score at the start of July.
“That’s a clear improvement from recent lows. But the market is still in Extreme Fear,” trader Master of Crypto responded on X.
“Fear is easing, not gone.”
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
As a lagging indicator, Fear & Greed tends to mirror existing shifts in market behavior post factum. While the Index is calculated based on a basket of factors, it lacks the ability to predict future trend continuation.
In his latest analysis published this week, commentator and blockchain advisor Anndy Lian argued that Bitcoin bulls needed to back up their optimism with tangible price moves.
“A successful breakout above that US$65,000 threshold would open the door to a broader test of the 100-day moving average, which currently hovers near US$69,500,” he wrote.
“Conversely, failing to sustain the current momentum carries severe downside risks.”

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:da7fd60e3094b:0-60-4k-becomes-most-important-area-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week/
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Anndy Lian
Why Bitcoin’s 1.23% gain means nothing without a break above US$65,000
Bitcoin recorded a 1.23 per cent gain, settling at US$63,722.90 over the last 24 hours. This price action slightly outperformed the broader digital asset market, which advanced by 1.07 per cent during the same timeframe. The upward movement stems from a macro-driven shift in sentiment, as the leading cryptocurrency closely mirrored the beta of the broader financial landscape.
Over a trailing 30-day period, Bitcoin maintains a strong 57 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 index. This relationship underscores that the digital asset currently behaves as a rates-sensitive vehicle, moving in close tandem with traditional equities rather than responding to isolated, crypto-specific developments.
The primary catalyst behind this upward trajectory originates in the macroeconomic landscape. Investors have adjusted their expectations regarding future Federal Reserve monetary policy, spurred by softer labour data and comments from financial commentators regarding diminished inflation risks.
When looking at the broader picture, the entire crypto market capitalisation climbed in lockstep with Bitcoin, confirming that systemic macro factors are lifting risk assets rather than an isolated cryptocurrency catalyst. This shift in sentiment has temporarily quieted hawkish interest-rate expectations, creating a window in which global capital feels comfortable stepping back into speculative positions. The incoming macroeconomic landscape will face its first major reality check when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its June meeting on July 8.
Beyond macro tailwinds, supportive positioning within the derivatives market provided a constructive backdrop for the daily advance. Forced selling pressure eased during the day, as evidenced by a significant 69.37 per cent decline in 24-hour liquidations, which fell to US$18.68M. This sharp reduction in forced closures suggests that the immediate market structure is not burdened by excessive, unstable leverage.
Concurrently, options data from the Deribit exchange points to a distinctly bullish tilt among market participants. Call options currently outnumber put options ahead of the July 8 expiration date, suggesting that speculative traders are allocating capital to the expectation of an upward breakout rather than hedging against a downside collapse.
Despite these positive signals, the near-term technical outlook indicates that the underlying market structure remains fragile. The crypto market sentiment indicator sits at 29, placing investors’ general emotional state firmly in fear territory. For the current bounce to become a verified trend reversal, Bitcoin needs to clear and hold several critical technical hurdles.
The 50-day simple moving average currently sits near US$62,465, while the Fibonacci 38.2 per cent retracement level rests at US$63,619. If the price can firmly secure the US$62,000 support level, it will position buyers to challenge the major resistance cluster located around US$65,000.
A successful breakout above that US$65,000 threshold would open the door to a broader test of the 100-day moving average, which currently hovers near US$69,500. Conversely, failing to sustain the current momentum carries severe downside risks.
A breakdown below the immediate support floor at US$62,000 would likely trigger a rapid retreat toward the psychological support line at US$60,000. The ultimate direction depends heavily on how market participants digest the July 8 FOMC minutes, which stand as the pivotal regulatory and economic milestone for the week.
The broader international markets are navigating a post-holiday reopening that is heavily influenced by cooling inflation cues. Wall Street futures are holding steady after experiencing choppy conditions at the end of last week. The domestic equity market is undergoing a visible technology rotation, with semiconductor shares facing selling pressure amid emerging overbuild concerns.
Meanwhile, traditional industrial indices remain resilient. Across the Atlantic, European markets achieved notable milestones. Broad-based buying pressure pushed the STOXX Europe 600 index up by 0.5 per cent, while the German DAX index climbed to a fresh all-time high.
The Asia-Pacific region started the trading week with general optimism. Shares edged higher across most major regional indices, led by a remarkable rally in South Korea, where the KOSPI surged over five per cent on heavy gains among major exchange-traded funds. Japanese and Chinese equity markets also posted gains, with both the Nikkei and the Hang Seng strengthening as regional investors reacted to shifting global rate expectations.
In the commodities sector, gold prices maintained their upward trajectory, trading near US$4,200 per ounce, while crude oil futures recorded modest declines following recent OPEC+ output adjustments and a perceived easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
From an analytical perspective, this collective market action reflects a highly interconnected financial ecosystem where the boundaries between digital and traditional assets continue to blur. The 57 per cent correlation with the S&P 500 proves that institutional capital treats Bitcoin as a high-beta component of a global risk portfolio. When global macro indicators hint that central banks might pause or reverse aggressive rate hikes, liquidity naturally flows down the risk curve.
The massive reduction in daily liquidations to US$18.68M is a healthy sign of deleveraging, but the persistent fear reading of 29 in the sentiment index serves as a reminder that retail conviction remains low. The market is leaning long via options, yet this positioning is speculative and highly sensitive to unexpected hawkish surprises in the forthcoming economic data releases.
As the trading week progresses, the global economic calendar will dictate whether this cautiously bullish environment can persist. Aside from the high-stakes release of the Federal Reserve minutes on July 8, international investors are closely tracking incoming indicators, including the US ISM Services PMI and the latest JOLTS job openings data.
If these reports reinforce the narrative of a cooling economy without flashing signs of a deeper recession, risk assets will likely find the fuel necessary to challenge upper resistance clusters. An unexpected surge in inflation indicators or hotter labour data could quickly unravel the current rate-sensitive rally across both traditional and digital exchanges.
Ultimately, the short-term path for Bitcoin remains trapped within a defined range bounded by US$62,000 on the bottom and US$65,000 on the top. The asset has successfully outpaced the broader market’s 1.07 per cent gain with its own 1.23 per cent move, but this outperformance occurs within a larger, macro-dominated framework.
Until the market convincingly reclaims its longer-term moving averages, this price action is best viewed as a macro-driven relief bounce. Investors are keeping their focus entirely on July 8, awaiting the definitive economic signals that will either validate the current bullish options bias or send prices back down to test psychological support levels.

Source:
https://e27.co/why-bitcoins-1-23-gain-means-nothing-without-a-break-above-us65000-20260706/
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Anndy Lian
The Independence Day crypto puzzle: Up or down?
When you look at the digital asset market, it has climbed 2.47 per cent to reach a total capitalisation of US$2.13 trillion in 24 hours. You might mistake this sudden upward movement for a fundamental shift in blockchain utility. I want to say this again: this is a classic macroeconomic relief rally.
Weak United States employment figures reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. This shift prompted traders to rotate capital into risk assets. The current market dynamics reflect shifting interest-rate expectations rather than any intrinsic evolution in decentralised network technologies. We see speculative capital chasing yields in a traditional financial system struggling with persistent inflation and uncertain monetary policy.
The primary catalyst for this rotation stems directly from disappointing economic data from the United States. The government reported that June payrolls grew by a mere 57,000 jobs. This figure represents 50 per cent of the projected 113,000. Authorities also revised the prior months downward. This weak data, combined with dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh about easing inflation risks, forced institutional traders to rapidly reprice their rate-hike expectations.
Consequently, capital flooded into digital assets and other alternative risk vehicles. This macroeconomic shift also explains the striking 86 per cent correlation we currently observe between Bitcoin and gold. Gold recently surged back above US$4,100. Investors clearly view both assets as inflation hedges against a weakening fiat system. The United States dollar subsequently slid against every major developed market currency. The dollar experienced a sharp bounce against the yen as global markets pared bets on near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Traditional equity markets experienced severe fragmentation during this same period. This fragmentation highlights the broader risk rotation. Technology indices took a hit while defensive sectors absorbed fleeing capital. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.6 per cent, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 5.4 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the negative trend and rose 1.1 per cent to claim a new record high.
The technology sector sell-off drove the SOXX index down 11.6 per cent over just two consecutive sessions. Major chipmakers led this decline. Applied Materials dropped 7.3 per cent. Micron fell 5.4 per cent. Intel sank 5.2 per cent. Investors clearly abandoned overvalued technology trades in favour of safety. Defensive sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, and materials, all logged notable gains exceeding 2 per cent. This equity market behaviour perfectly mirrors the crypto relief rally. Both markets react identically to shifting Federal Reserve policy probabilities.
Treasury yields retreated following the employment miss. This retreat illustrates the repricing of interest rates. The two-year yield dropped four basis points to settle at 4.13 per cent. The 10-year finished slightly higher at 4.447 per cent. These bond market movements directly influence the daily liquidity available for speculative assets like cryptocurrency. When bond yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding yield-free assets decreases.
This decrease encourages capital to flow back into high-beta investments. This liquidity dynamic explains why the digital asset market reacted so violently to the jobs report. The combination of sliding treasury yields, a weakening dollar, and dovish central bank rhetoric creates a perfect storm for speculative digital assets. The underlying fundamental drivers stay constant during these macroeconomic shifts.
Within the digital asset ecosystem, capital rapidly flowed into high-beta sectors. This flow created a broad rally beyond the initial macroeconomic spark. The Ethereum ecosystem emerged as the top-performing narrative. It surged 16.7 per cent and contributed significantly to the overall market gains. Social sentiment platforms highlighted a generational opportunity for the asset. News outlets extensively covered its 2026 roadmap, focusing heavily on privacy and scaling upgrades. This intense buying pressure demonstrates how quickly liquidity rotates into existing layer-1 networks when macroeconomic conditions improve.
We must also acknowledge the deeply speculative nature of this liquidity injection. Tokens with minimal fundamental utility experienced explosive rallies from massive volume. These extreme price movements underscore the gambling nature of speculative financial activities. Participants actively chase outsized returns in deeply oversold altcoins.
The market faces immediate and critical resistance at the US$2.15 trillion pivot point. This level aligns with the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. A daily close above this threshold could open the door to the US$2.18 trillion to US$2.21 trillion resistance range. Fragility defines the current relief rally.
A failure to hold the US$2.04 trillion to US$2.09 trillion support zone risks a swift retest of the yearly low at US$2.04 trillion. The most crucial near-term trigger for sustaining this upward momentum lies in the release of United States spot Bitcoin ETF flow data. Continued institutional outflows will undoubtedly cap any meaningful upside potential. We need to see these ETF flows turn positive to provide the continuous demand required to challenge higher resistance levels.
Global markets outside the United States present a similarly complex picture as investors digest the shifting macroeconomic landscape. Asian indices experienced mixed performance, featuring a distinct shift away from overvalued artificial intelligence-related trades. Regional investors now await further signals on United States rates and energy output from the upcoming OPEC meeting.
The Independence Day holiday closes United States markets. This closure reduces liquidity and exacerbates price volatility in both traditional and digital asset markets. This temporary reduction in daily trading volume means that current price levels might not reflect true market consensus. We must approach the week surrounding the holiday with extreme caution. Thin order books can lead to exaggerated price swings in either direction.

Source: https://e27.co/the-independence-day-crypto-puzzle-up-or-down-20260703/
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Anndy Lian
The extreme fear metric: Why forced liquidations are driving today’s market bounce
The global cryptocurrency market climbs 1.92 per cent, reaching a total valuation of US$2.09 trillion. This upward movement stems primarily from a sharp technical bounce and a significant short squeeze concentrated within Bitcoin. Interestingly, a strong statistical relationship now exists between cryptocurrency and gold, with a 67 per cent correlation indicating that investors increasingly view both assets as inflation hedges.
The broader market movement reflects a multi-driver dynamic, combining relief from heavily oversold conditions, a wave of positive regulatory sentiment, and a targeted rotation of speculative capital into high-beta narratives that have historically outperformed the broader market during brief periods of recovery.
The primary force driving this sudden market lift is a dramatic short squeeze and an oversold bounce led by Bitcoin, which successfully reclaimed the US$61,300 level. This critical price movement forced short sellers to cover their positions aggressively, triggering over US$72 million in short liquidations in a single day. This massive wave of liquidations suggests that the recent upward price pressure is more of a mechanical reaction to oversold conditions than a rally driven by organic, long-term buying interest.
This technical squeeze occurred even as the broader Fear and Greed Index lingered at a deeply pessimistic level of 19, indicating extreme fear among market participants. Consequently, the brief rally reflects forced leveraged closures rather than fresh capital injections, meaning the durability of this move depends heavily on whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above this critical point.
Simultaneously, a supportive backdrop emerged from shifting regulatory discussions and a distinct rotation in market narratives. Positive commentary from regulatory bodies on digital commodity classification injected confidence into the trading environment, helping reduce a persistent cloud of uncertainty that has long suppressed market activity. With regulatory fears temporarily eased, speculative capital quickly migrated into high-momentum sectors rather than distributing evenly across all digital assets.
The rollups narrative gained 3.63 per cent, while some memecoins surged by more than 28 per cent. This behaviour underscores a broader trend in which traders chase alpha in isolated, catalyst-driven altcoins, suggesting that market participants are currently favouring targeted speculative plays over broad-based or sustained market expansion.
Looking ahead to the near-term market outlook, the immediate path for the digital asset space depends entirely on Bitcoin’s upcoming price action. The total market capitalisation is currently testing its seven-day simple moving average near US$2.09 trillion, with the next major Fibonacci resistance level at US$2.15 trillion, representing a 50 per cent retracement.
If Bitcoin manages to hold firm above the US$61,300 threshold, the market is highly likely to test a broader resistance zone ranging between US$2.15 trillion and US$2.18 trillion. A breakdown pushing the price below US$58,000 could quickly invalidate this technical bounce and trigger renewed selling pressure across the board. Traders must remain vigilant, particularly as negative spot exchange-traded fund flows persist and the market eagerly awaits the next round of United States jobs data and shifts in investment vehicles for clearer directional cues.
This cautious cryptocurrency bounce stands in stark contrast to the turbulent conditions observed in the traditional financial landscape, where global markets recently stumbled. A steep selloff in chipmakers and semiconductor stocks, combined with hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve, prompted traditional investors to lock in profits and exit technology positions. Traditional equity markets closed slightly lower just before the Independence Day holiday, with crude oil prices slipping slightly while gold held steady.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 slipped to 7,483, while the Nasdaq fell marginally by 0.03 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower by 0.66 per cent to 26,040. The technology sector experienced a sharp divergence, highlighted by a 10 per cent plunge in Micron alongside significant dips for Nvidia and Intel, even as Meta Platforms bucked the trend by surging 8.8 per cent on reports of its expansion into artificial intelligence cloud infrastructure.
Traditional market sentiment was further constrained by comments from Federal Reserve leadership, which noted that while inflation risks are gradually fading, market participants should temper any immediate expectations for interest rate cuts. This hawkish tone pushed the United States 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.47 per cent, ahead of early bond market closures for the holiday weekend.
The ripples of this tech sector correction extended deeply into the Asia-Pacific region, where South Korea’s Kospi index plunged roughly 7 per cent before recovering some of its losses. Japan’s Nikkei index similarly suffered from aggressive profit taking in major technology names, even as the Japanese yen staged a modest rebound from a historic 40-year low. Closer to local regional markets, the ASX 200 opened lower across all major sectors, heavily weighed down by technology, energy, and mining equities, while the benchmark index in Singapore surrendered 0.7 per cent to finish at 5,170.65.
Amid these macroeconomic shifts, prominent industry figures like Brian Armstrong have pointed out a persistent gap in public perception, noting that many observers still erroneously assume the entire asset class is down simply because Bitcoin experiences a correction. The reality is far more complex, as derivatives, perpetual contracts, stablecoins, and prediction markets have all charted positive growth metrics.
Digital asset infrastructure now touches almost every major corner of global finance, revealing an ecosystem that has grown far beyond its original architecture. While Bitcoin remains immensely important and is poised to perform exceptionally well through its ongoing market cycles, the broader ecosystem is steadily preparing for a structural evolution that extends far beyond a single asset or a basic store of value.
This evolution brings us to a critical crossroad regarding the true selling point of this technology, which must centre on a return to decentralisation rather than a desperate chase after traditional financial liquidity. The digital asset space certainly needs a better product than Bitcoin to fulfil its original promise, but that ideal product is definitely not a stablecoin pegged directly to a fiat currency that citizens are losing faith in, nor is it a collection of tokenised traditional stocks.
Builders can choose to construct a replica of the traditional stock exchange, but the community must remember the core ethos that initiated this entire movement. The forward path does not require mimicking the existing financial elite, but rather waiting for and developing a superior product that champions true decentralisation over corporate integration.

Source: https://e27.co/the-extreme-fear-metric-why-forced-liquidations-are-driving-todays-market-bounce-20260702/
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Anndy Lian
How centralised exchanges swapped crypto ethos for Wall Street fees: Why this will fail
Bitcoin has dropped 2.88 per cent within a 24-hour window, falling to a price of US$58,523.37. This downward trajectory occurs against the backdrop of the traditional equities market, signalling that the current vulnerability belongs uniquely to the crypto ecosystem. For an industry that spent the better part of the last two years celebrating the arrival of Wall Street capital, the current contraction exposes a harsh reality. The very institutional pipelines that propelled the market upward have now created a massive supply overhang, reversing the bullish narrative and leaving the asset class highly vulnerable to extended downside pressure.
The primary driver behind this sudden market distress is a historic collapse in institutional buying pressure, marked by unprecedented liquidations. During the month of June 2026, a record US$4.4 billion net supply overhang overwhelmed the market. This massive influx of selling pressure originated chiefly from United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which redeemed a staggering 71,600 BTC. The selling momentum intensified following a strategic pivot from Strategy, a prominent corporate holder known historically for its strict accumulate-only treasury management. Strategy announced a plan to monetise up to US$1.25 billion in Bitcoin to fund corporate dividends. This strategic decision marks a critical departure from past behaviour, effectively transforming the largest and most consistent source of institutional demand into an active seller on the open market.
Macroeconomic headwinds have further compounded this internal structural weakness, suppressing investor appetite for risk assets. On June 29, the Supreme Court blocked an attempt to alter the composition of the Federal Reserve, a legal decision that effectively preserved the central bank’s hawkish policy framework. This development dashed investor hopes for near-term interest rate cuts, solidifying a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook that naturally penalises zero-yield assets like cryptocurrencies. As macro sentiment soured, a massive wave of leverage unwinding rippled through the derivatives markets. Over US$103 million in Bitcoin long positions faced automatic liquidation within 24 hours, creating a cascading effect that amplified the downside velocity and firmly established a bearish market structure.
This institutional flight highlights an uncomfortable truth about the current state of cryptocurrency. The industry appears to be losing its grip on its core identity, drifting away from the foundational principles of decentralisation that originally gave it purpose. The prevailing narrative has shifted aggressively toward traditional financial integrations, specifically tokenised real-world assets that have very little to do with genuine decentralised crypto. Centralised exchanges are actively pushing this traditional finance agenda, prioritising immediate survival and operational revenue over the long-term ethos of the space. While centralised entities require consistent capital flow to maintain their massive operations, this pivot has compromised the original value proposition of the asset class, causing a noticeable decline in renewed retail interest.
While the cryptocurrency sector struggles with internal identity shifts and capital flight, the traditional equities landscape continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and absorb global liquidity. The Nasdaq Composite index climbed 1.52 per cent, powered by renewed buying pressure in technology and mega-cap growth names. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.27 per cent to hover near all-time records, and the S&P 500 closed at 7,354.02, reflecting a nominal single-day dip of 0.05 per cent despite maintaining a heavily positive trajectory over its quarterly stretch. This broader equities rally was powered heavily by chipmakers, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posting an impressive 87.8 per cent gain for the June quarter. Conversely, defensive sectors like Healthcare, Utilities, and Real Estate declined, proving that capital is actively seeking high-growth yield in equity markets rather than venturing into digital assets.
This stark divergence in performance demonstrates that Wall Street is finding much stronger returns within its own backyard. The hunt for liquidity by centralised exchanges has led them to aggressively promote traditional finance products, yet this strategy has fundamentally backfired on native crypto assets by steering attention away from the core market.
Investors must realise that the massive artificial intelligence and technology boom currently pushing stock indices to record highs will eventually face a natural market correction. An artificial intelligence bubble will inevitably come, and a broader technology shake-up is bound to manifest. When that macro rotation occurs, digital assets that have fully integrated with traditional finance will simply be dragged down alongside legacy equities, rather than acting as an independent alternative.
The technical framework for Bitcoin reflects this ongoing structural deterioration, keeping the immediate path of least resistance directed downward. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic oscillator have reached heavily stretched, oversold territories. The asset remains trading securely below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages. The immediate near-term resistance sits at the seven-day Simple Moving Average of US$60,430, while the broader psychological and technical line in the sand remains at US$60,700. As long as the price trades below the US$60,700 threshold, the macro bearish structure remains fully active and dominant. I said this many times this week.
The market is heavily hedged for downside protection at the moment, meaning a further drop is highly anticipated but not entirely guaranteed without specific structural breaks. Derivatives data indicates that prediction markets are currently pricing in a remarkably high probability of Bitcoin trading below the US$55,000 level before the end of the year.
Options traders are also paying hefty premiums for downside protection, showing a crowded bearish consensus. Chasing a panic short precisely at current technical support levels presents an unfavourable risk-to-reward ratio. The market needs to see if Bitcoin loses the US$58,000 level cleanly on a daily closing basis. A decisive breakdown below the Fibonacci swing support at US$58,076 will quickly validate a realistic move down toward US$55,000.
A clean breach of the US$55,000 support zone will likely open the floodgates for a much deeper correction, exposing lower technical targets. If institutional exchange-traded fund outflows stretch for additional weeks and the July 14 United States Consumer Price Index inflation report delivers hotter-than-expected data, Federal Reserve hawkishness will solidify. Under such conditions, Bitcoin is highly likely to drop into the US$44,000 range or potentially even lower. Conversely, if the asset somehow reclaims the US$60,700 level, the crowded bearish options trade could easily trigger a rapid short squeeze, forcing sellers to cover their positions and temporarily lifting the price back into the local trading range.
The current environment serves as a critical warning for native cryptocurrency participants to resist institutional brainwashing and maintain their own line of defence. The industry must stop bending to the desires of legacy financial institutions that only view digital assets as speculative, fee-generating instruments. The community needs to stick firmly to its original selling points, remembering exactly why this technology was created in the first place.
Hovering around these volatile price levels is entirely normal for an emerging asset class. True value will not be recovered by adopting the structure of traditional markets, but by fiercely defending the decentralised principles that separate crypto from Wall Street.


Source: https://e27.co/how-centralised-exchanges-swapped-crypto-ethos-for-wall-street-fees-why-this-will-fail-20260701/

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Anndy Lian
The short squeeze illusion: Why derivative squeezes make fragile foundations for Bitcoin
Bitcoin reached US$60,258.79 after gaining 1.68 per cent over 24 hours. Total crypto market capitalisation advanced 1.82 per cent in the same timeframe. This synchronised movement reveals the true nature of the current rally. Digital assets lack internal catalysts right now and rely entirely on external macro positioning. The leading cryptocurrency simply tracks the broader risk appetite rather than generating independent momentum.
Crowded trades in the Dollar Index and interest rate markets created a highly fragile setup leading into the end of the quarter. Institutional investors anticipated a snap adjustment lower in the dollar and yields. This anticipatory buying placed a temporary floor under digital assets. Bitcoin reacted directly to shifting macro expectations rather than generating organic demand from retail or institutional buyers. My analysis suggests this macro unwind thesis provides a very shaky foundation for a sustained price recovery. Market participants simply unwound their bearish bets on traditional currencies and inadvertently pushed digital assets higher in the process.
Traders confirmed this price action with massive volume and aggressive positioning in the derivatives market. Spot trading volume surged 91.06 per cent to reach US$31.2 billion over the last day. Total open interest in derivatives rose 5.64 per cent and showed new capital entering the space or existing players rapidly repositioning their books.
Short liquidations exploded 482 per cent and forced leveraged traders to buy back their positions to amplify the ascent. This forced buying creates a deceptive picture of underlying strength. I warn my readers that short squeezes often reverse quickly once the forced buying pressure exhausts itself and organic sellers return to the market.
Institutional players continue selling despite the rising price and the positive daily movement. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experienced a record US$4.06 billion in net outflows during June. This persistent institutional exit creates a heavy ceiling for any organic rally. The current bounce must overcome this massive supply overhang to prove sustainable over the coming weeks.
Also Read:
Why tracking Bitcoin ETFs matters
Traditional finance allocators clearly lack conviction at these price levels and prefer taking profits rather than adding to their exposure. I view these massive outflows as a clear warning sign that smart money still expects lower prices in the near future.
Technical levels dictate the immediate future for digital assets and provide clear roadmaps for active traders. Bulls must defend the US$59,000 support level to keep the rebound alive and attract momentum buyers. A successful defence opens the path toward US$62,000 resistance. A break below US$58,800 invalidates the current bounce and invites bears to push the price down to the yearly low of US$58,035. A decisive daily close above US$60,500 provides the clearest signal of immediate strength and confirms the buyers have taken control. I advise caution until the market achieves that specific daily close and proves the bulls possess real staying power.
Traditional markets offer a stark contrast to the fragile crypto rebound and provide a much healthier backdrop for risk assets. Global equities just closed out one of the strongest quarters in recent years. Wall Street staged a robust recovery as technology stocks rebounded from a brief selloff related to artificial intelligence earlier in the spring. The broader stock market demonstrates genuine buying interest and real earnings growth, unlike the speculative flows currently driving digital asset prices.
United States shares rallied to cap off the week shortened by holidays and delivered impressive monthly returns to investors. Technology and chipmaker shares led the charge after investors rotated capital back into the sector following a sharp rotation out. The technology-focused Nasdaq jumped over six per cent for the month of June and added roughly two per cent during the final session. The broader S&P 500 index gained nearly five per cent during the same monthly period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average simultaneously hit fresh record highs and proved that traditional equity investors possess strong conviction in the economic outlook.
Asian and European markets also participated in the quarterly advance and delivered solid returns to global investors. Japanese stocks climbed broadly as the yen dropped to a 40-year low. This weak currency acts as a major tailwind for Japanese equities that rely heavily on exports and boosts their international competitiveness. European investors watched the STOXX 600 secure its second straight quarterly advance despite the index dipping more than one per cent over the month of June. Global capital clearly favours traditional international equities over speculative digital tokens when allocating funds for the long term.
Also Read:
Bitcoin at US$63,386: The geopolitical storm Wall Street missed
Commodities and foreign exchange markets reflect a complex global picture heading into the second half of 2026. Crude oil prices held steady and maintained a modest upward trend ahead of expected United States and Iran talks in Doha. West Texas Intermediate crude hovered around the US$70 a barrel mark. Foreign exchange markets saw the United States Dollar remain relatively soft as investors priced in expectations for more aggressive interest rate cuts in 2027. These shifting macro variables directly influence the liquidity conditions that ultimately dictate the direction of highly sensitive risk assets like Bitcoin.
Fixed income markets experienced some steepening in the yield curve as the quarter came to a close. Earlier drops in oil prices largely drove this shift and altered investor expectations for future inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield moderated and tracked around 4.23 per cent to end the quarter. I remain cautiously neutral on digital assets going forward.
Market participants should maintain strict risk management protocols while navigating this highly volatile environment. The contrasting strength in traditional global equities versus the fragile rebound in digital assets tells a very clear story about current institutional preferences. Smart money favours companies generating actual cash flow over speculative tokens relying entirely on short squeezes and macro unwinds.
I will wait for definitive technical confirmation before declaring any major trend reversal in the cryptocurrency sector. The data clearly shows that traditional markets currently offer a much more stable foundation for capital allocation.
Source: https://e27.co/the-short-squeeze-illusion-why-derivative-squeezes-make-fragile-foundations-for-bitcoin-20260630/

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Anndy Lian
Web4 Explained Anndy Lian
On the Smart Economy Podcast with Dylan Garbowski, we explored the evolutionary trajectory of the internet, drawing from my journey from early Bitcoin adoption in 2012 to advising global governments on blockchain policy. While the crypto industry has spent the last decade building, we have largely been iterating on a flawed foundation. It is time we honestly assess where we are and boldly architect where we are going: the dawn of Web4. For years, Web3 has been heralded as the pinnacle of digital sovereignty. Yet, as I emphasized in the interview, the reality of Web3 falls short of its promise. True decentralization is largely an illusion. Having sat in rooms with policymakers and ministers across different nations, I’ve seen firsthand how traditional systems operate; they require realistic, unvarnished truths, not fluffy buzzwords. When we apply this same realism to Web3, the lack of true decentralization becomes undeniable. Behind the scenes, venture capitalists and insiders control the token allocations, the code, and the governance. When a handful of entities dictate the direction of a network, it is not decentralized; it is merely a centralized system wearing a cryptographic mask. To reclaim our digital sovereignty, we must evolve. This is where Web4 enters the narrative. Web4 is not simply Web3 with an AI plugin slapped on top. It is a fundamental architectural shift where artificial intelligence and blockchain converge to create a truly autonomous, decentralized ecosystem. In the Web4 paradigm, the roles are distinctly redefined. The human is the architect, providing the vision and the plan. AI acts as the brain, processing complex data and reasoning through solutions. AI agents serve as the workers, autonomously executing tasks. Finally, the community—the users—interacts seamlessly with this ecosystem. Blockchain serves as the immutable spine and trust layer, ensuring security, verifiability, and censorship resistance, while AI provides the connective, intelligent layer. To achieve this, we need a robust, multi-layered architecture. This includes an intent-based interface layer, an agent layer capable of multi-agent swarms and autonomous goal execution, a protocol layer featuring AI-enhanced smart contracts and dynamic consensus, and a data layer rooted in decentralized storage and Zero-Knowledge (ZK) verification. Only through this comprehensive stack can we establish the necessary checks and balances, ensuring that AI remains a tool for the collective good rather than a centralized instrument of control. During the podcast, Dylan also challenged me on my vocal support for memecoins. It is a perspective that surprises some, given my background in enterprise and government advisory. However, my stance is rooted in community building. Memecoins represent the lowest hanging fruit for gathering people. They offer retail participants a sense of hope and the possibility of life-changing returns, which is often the initial catalyst for community formation. That said, the current launchpad environment lacks necessary guardrails. I firmly believe that control and standards should be established by the industry itself through independent councils, rather than handed over to government regulators. If we invite government overreach, we sacrifice the very decentralization we set out to build. We must also critically reevaluate our digital assets. I expressed my skepticism regarding stablecoins pegged exclusively to the US dollar. Relying solely on a single fiat currency limits our potential; instead, we should explore stablecoins backed by a diverse basket of assets, including native tokens and Bitcoin, to distribute economic dependency. Furthermore, while I respect Bitcoin’s foundational role, holding it as an asset requires massive capital for marginal returns. The industry needs a formidable competitor to Bitcoin—perhaps an AI-driven asset intrinsically tied to computing power, electricity, and proof of work. Such an asset would better reflect the technological reality of the future. Ultimately, the transition to Web4 is about more than just technological upgrades; it is an ethical imperative. If we surrender our data and AI models to centralized tech giants, we become the product. By marrying AI’s intelligence with blockchain’s immutability, we can create an open-source, self-governing environment where the community verifies and benefits from the AI’s output. This ensures that the intelligence driving our digital lives is accountable to the people, not a corporate board. The technology is ready, and the architecture is defined. Now, we must intentionally design an autonomous future that secures human sovereignty and serves the collective good. I have detailed this vision comprehensively in my book, Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence. I deliberately priced it to be accessible and am donating all proceeds to further the cause of true decentralization. The future of the internet will not be built by a select few in a boardroom; it will be architected by the community, executed by AI, and secured by the blockchain. Let us build it together.
Book on Amazon:
Web4: The Age of Autonomous Intelligence by Anndy Lian
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