Alpha哥AI投资日记

This time, the Democrats didn’t just win by a narrow margin—they scored a historic landslide.

When Trump won the presidential election in 2024, he actually led the national popular vote by just 1.5 percentage points, and received less than 50% of the vote. At the time, many people thought the U.S. had entered a long-lasting MAGA era.

But two years later, the Democrats not only swept both chambers of Congress; they’re also projected to lead Republicans by 13–14 percentage points in the nationwide House vote. That’s the largest lead since the Watergate scandal in 1974.

If this voter sentiment carries over to 2028, the Republicans could be in trouble.

Polymarket has already started repricing. Vance’s odds of winning the 2028 presidential election have fallen from nearly 30% to around 17%. Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who just won reelection in Georgia, has quickly caught up, with 16.7% odds. AOC has also made the top three, at 13.1%.

The main issues Ossoff focused on this time were the cost of living, government corruption, tariffs, and opposition to the war with Iran—not the far-left culture-war issues.

At the end of the day, voters care about their own wallets. The things that helped Trump win in 2024 could also make Republicans lose in 2028. The people are the foundation of power: they can uphold it, but they can also bring it down.

Historically dubbed “The Silicon Valley Great Leap Forward” 🤣

Before, everyone was smelting steel; now, everyone is churning out tokens.

Before, they shouted, “Ten thousand jin per mu!” Now, they shout, “ARR will keep skyrocketing forever!”

Before, they believed “Man can conquer nature”; now, they believe Scaling Laws can cure every ailment.

所有 AI 硬件骑手请注意：立刻扔掉手里的单子，吃掉已经接单的外卖 牛回！速归！

$INTC 英特尔公司董事陈立武于11月2日以每股平均价64.7312美元增持15万股普通股股份，价值约为970.97万美元，英特尔直线拉升，跌幅收窄至1%

特别提醒：暂时不要卖掉电动车！不要卖掉电动车！先不要卖掉电动车！！！💰💰

Silver broke below 50 and swept out long positions, triggering their stop-losses. It may bounce a bit in the short term.

Opened a small long at 50.5 for fun https://twitter.com/AlphaguyTrading/status/2116140505126101212

As expected, the Democrats won big.

More noteworthy is that the Democrats also got smarter this time. Instead of relying solely on LGBT and identity politics, they began putting forward moderates who were more in tune with local voters, shifting the focus back to the economy and cost of living.

Kansas is a case in point. The Democrats brought in Adam Hamilton, a pastor and religious leader from a large local church, and took a moderate, pragmatic approach—managing to win a Senate seat that Republicans had held for 94 years.

Could this approach become the Democrats’ main strategy for the 2028 presidential election?

Source: https://x.com/i/web/status/2116232766002245698

The midterm results are basically in, just as I predicted over the weekend: a Blue Sweep—a big win for Democrats in the midterms.

Even the Senate race in a deep-red state like Texas turned blue 😂 https://twitter.com/alphaguytrading/status/2116232766002245698

I completely agree. In fact, many asset classes have become increasingly crypto-like in recent years. Silver, for example, can drop 45% in two days. Even in U.S. tech stocks, the underlying microstructure of trading has become entirely driven by narratives.

When a new narrative emerges, pod shop funds pile in with leverage, pushing prices up. As the candlesticks rise, social media spreads the story, creating a positive feedback loop. When the narrative’s marginal impact starts to fade and the crowded trade unwinds, smart money rushes for the exits first, leaving leveraged investors to trample one another. This game of positioning and liquidity being drained is, especially for small- and mid-cap stocks, fundamentally no different from what happens with altcoins.

I’m optimistic about AI in the long term. If we compare the leading semiconductor companies—with the strongest long-term fundamentals—to BTC, then over a 5- or 10-year horizon, bitcoin:native really did rise from $1,000–$3,000 in early 2017 to a high of $125,000, and it’s still around $77,000 now. But the question is: how many brutal four-year cycles did it go through along the way? How much leverage got wiped out at the bottom of each cycle?

AI and semiconductors will most likely go through cycles of a similar magnitude. The scariest thing isn’t volatility itself. It’s people buying into the story that “AI is humanity’s future, backed by real earnings,” then taking on leverage at the top of the cycle that even altcoin traders wouldn’t dare touch. When the cycle bottom finally arrives and valuations and leverage get crushed, the damage caused by this “fundamentals illusion” may catch a lot of people completely unprepared.

There’s nothing wrong with being a long-term AI bull over a 5–10-year horizon, but you have to manage your position size, avoid leverage, and not go all in on individual small-cap stocks. Don’t leave yourself out of the game.

Of course, I think we should also look at the upside here. If you can time the cycles in AI stocks with reasonable accuracy, the potential returns could be huge.

These are just my personal views and may not be entirely correct. Feel free to criticize.

Quote: https://x.com/i/web/status/2116467676277088570

I likewise don't think I'm smarter than the market or the sharpest tech investors. Demand for AI may not be as strong as the market previously expected.

Also, it's worth paying close attention to yesterday's market action: $USO (oil) plunged 7%, while semiconductors and memory stocks didn't even manage a half-decent rebound. That's quite alarming.
This is exactly the opposite of what happened in April this year, when oil prices were high but AI hardware stocks powered ahead regardless.

Quote: https://x.com/i/web/status/2117487879584952800

Recently, an American TikTok user asked: “Is it safe to travel in China? Please don’t lie.”

A German user gave a hilarious reply: “In China, every city is safe—except the stock market.” This German user really knows China 🤣😂

Based on my past experience of losing a lot of money, when fundamentals and technicals conflict, I still trust the technicals. https://twitter.com/AlphaguyTrading/status/2117477999465623785

I said around the middle of last month that the crowded trade was unwinding. The S&P 500 actually hasn’t fallen much lately, so that’s not too bad, but semiconductors and memory stocks have pretty much gone into free fall, and AI hardware stocks are impossible to look at now.

I gradually and significantly cut my positions in early October. Looking back, I was spot-on both about when to get out and where market capital was flowing 🫡 https://twitter.com/AlphaguyTrading/status/2109841384278737053

Many investors say they respect the market, but in reality, they just want the market to respect their judgment.

As soon as the market moves against their expectations, they start looking for reasons to prove they’re right, even buying more as prices fall. Truly respecting the market means acknowledging that you could be wrong at any time—and having the courage to admit it, reduce your position, or even exit entirely and wait.

Trading isn’t a debate. There’s no point in proving you’re right. What ultimately determines your returns is the market, not your opinion.

Source: https://x.com/i/web/status/2116989911559745882

$MRVL Marvell has officially announced its acquisition of $LITE Lumentum, in a deal with an implied enterprise value of up to $115 billion—one of the biggest M&A deals in this year’s AI infrastructure sector.

Deal details:

100% stock-for-stock transaction: each LITE share will be exchanged for 4.5 MRVL shares
Based on the October 28 share price, the consideration is approximately $1,132 per share, representing a 23.9% premium
After the merger, existing MRVL shareholders will own 67% of the combined company, while LITE shareholders will own 33%
The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2028
Expected to generate more than $1 billion in annual cost synergies

The strategic rationale behind the acquisition is clear. Marvell is already a major player in custom ASICs and optical DSPs, while Lumentum brings expertise in lasers, optical transceivers, optical circuit switching (OCS), and indium phosphide (InP) manufacturing.

The merger brings together key technologies spanning the processing of electrical signals to the transmission of optical signals in AI data centers. It will further strengthen Marvell’s competitiveness in AI data center interconnects and bolster its ability to compete head-to-head with Broadcom.

More interestingly, Nvidia has already invested $2 billion each in MRVL and LITE this year. This deal is further evidence that competition in AI infrastructure is expanding beyond GPUs and custom ASICs to bandwidth, power consumption, and optical interconnect architectures.

Marvell is willing to give up roughly one-third of the combined company’s equity to bet on the optical interconnect market for next-generation AI data centers.

A $115 billion valuation is certainly not cheap. Whether such an aggressive acquisition ultimately creates enough shareholder value will depend on the durability of AI CapEx and whether the subsequent integration delivers on expectations.

😂😂😂 This is a sad story https://twitter.com/henghaer123/status/2116170713564619014

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Fits right in

Hedge funds have also started protecting their profits and year-end bonuses.

According to Morgan Stanley data, hedge funds’ cumulative active position reduction has reached about 8%—the biggest de-grossing (reduction in total portfolio exposure) since 2016, pushing exposure below its lowest level in the past decade.

Goldman Sachs data shows that TMT hedge funds lost about 12% in October, with losses concentrated mainly in crowded tech stocks.

The brutal sell-off over the past week or two may well have been driven by this wave of concentrated position cuts. To protect profits from the first half of the year, funds are selling long positions, covering shorts, and reducing total portfolio exposure. After all, a stock like Intel, with a market cap of hundreds of billions, can drop 30% in a single day—which has understandably made everyone a little nervous.

The more tech stocks fall, the greater the volatility and risk-control pressure, triggering further position cuts. This ultimately creates a cascade of forced selling, amplifying losses in crowded names such as Amazon, Google, and Intel.

Quote: https://x.com/i/web/status/2116493846745887217

Trump looks like he has all but given up on the 2026 midterm elections.

On Polymarket, the odds of Democrats sweeping both the House and Senate have climbed to 72%.

The key issues Trump promised to address during his campaign have mostly gone unresolved:

Oil prices are high, inflation remains elevated, and interest rates are still relatively high. Foreign wars and geopolitical conflicts have instead pushed energy prices even higher. The cost of living for ordinary Americans (excluding the various elites on Wall Street and at Silicon Valley's big tech companies) has not meaningfully improved.

More importantly, Democrats have gotten smarter, too. More and more Democratic candidates are starting to downplay far-left identity politics and LGBT cultural issues, opting instead for a more pragmatic approach and refocusing on the economy, prices, housing, and the cost of living for ordinary people.

At the end of the day, voters care about their wallets. Trump won the election by campaigning on the economy and inflation, and now those same issues could cost him both chambers of Congress.

Trump looks like he has all but given up on the 2026 midterm elections.

On Polymarket, the odds of Democrats sweeping both the House and Senate have climbed to 72%.

The key issues Trump promised to address during his campaign have mostly gone unresolved:

Oil prices are high, inflation remains elevated, and interest rates are still relatively high. Foreign wars and geopolitical conflicts have instead pushed energy prices even higher. The cost of living for ordinary Americans (excluding the various elites on Wall Street and at Silicon Valley's big tech companies) has not meaningfully improved.

More importantly, Democrats have gotten smarter, too. More and more Democratic candidates are starting to downplay far-left identity politics and LGBT cultural issues, opting instead for a more pragmatic approach and refocusing on the economy, prices, housing, and the cost of living for ordinary people.

At the end of the day, voters care about their wallets. Trump won the election by campaigning on the economy and inflation, and now those same issues could cost him both chambers of Congress.

I said mid-month that the AI hardware group was falling apart, but I really didn't expect everyone to run for the exits so quickly once it did—the whole thing collapsed like a house of cards 😂

For those of you sitting on plenty of cash, every dip is an opportunity. Where there's risk, there's opportunity. https://twitter.com/AlphaguyTrading/status/2109841384278737053

Reddit $RDDT plunged 29% today.

Reddit warned that its daily active users could decline by double digits next quarter. The CEO pointed out that Google AI answering users’ questions directly is costing Reddit more than 1 million search visits per week. This actually lends support to my earlier view: the traditional traffic-distribution model of Google Search is being disrupted by AI.

In the past, users searched, clicked a link, and visited a website (Reddit generally ranks quite well in SEO). Now, AI gives them the answer directly, and they don’t even need to open a webpage.

If this is happening to Reddit, what lies ahead for other companies that rely heavily on Google SEO to acquire customers?

AI is disrupting not only SaaS, but the entire internet traffic-distribution system.