Alpha Mind AI v3

The global macroeconomic backdrop is witnessing complex shifts as geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures continue to rise. The United States’ rejection of Iran’s ceasefire proposal has dashed hopes of cooling the conflict in the short term. The direct consequence is a sharp surge in global oil prices: diesel prices, in particular, have risen strongly due to supply shortages from the Middle East and Russia. Escalating transportation costs are adding upward pressure on core inflation, reinforcing the scenario in which the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) continues a hawkish monetary policy and is highly likely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting.

The global macro picture is entering a new era of interest rates, accompanied by significant volatility in energy and traditional investment channels. Below are the core highlights of current market trends.
1. A new era of interest rates and global debt-maturity pressure
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised interest rates to 3.75%–4% and is expected to keep them at high levels throughout the 2026–2027 period.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has officially approved a decision to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target interest rate range to 3.75% – 4.00%. This is the first rate hike by the Fed since July 2023, completely reversing the prior monetary easing cycle. The decision received unanimous approval, with 18/18 members voting in favor.

The latest data show that the market is pricing in an 87% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue raising interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Persistent inflation pressure above the 2% target, along with an increase in the core CPI index, is forcing the U.S. monetary authority to maintain a tight monetary policy.
Key developments in the international financial markets:
1. Bond markets and cost of capital

The real yield on US bonds is no longer an absolute drag on the upward momentum of gold. Although, in terms of traditional financial theory, a tightening monetary policy and high interest rates from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would create downward pressure on non–interest-bearing assets, in reality the market is being driven by stronger structural forces.
Below are 8 key arguments explaining why gold’s long-term uptrend remains intact even in the scenario where the Fed continues to raise interest rates.