0x桐灿

We’ve entered the desert—now we’re getting wild.

I'm setting off today with friends for a week of desert off-roading. We’ll probably enter the unmapped desert around the 28th, and then there will be no signal.
Right now, the multiple-long positions I had are already taking profit on the various parts; the remaining core position has been pushed to protection.

Briefly about the market going forward: Next, it mainly depends on BTC. If BTC consolidates strongly here and then continues to push up toward around 90,000, then the stronger altcoins should still have another breakout.

Use 10% of the realized profits as a stop-loss buffer, and buy some $AVAX .
Previously, I traded the AI sector leader $NEAR ; the RWA sector leader $ONDO . For altcoins, it’s about doing strong, not weak—use the past market action to filter for leaders, and then switch positions and enter at the right time.
If there’s another wave of breakout afterward, look at AVAX targeting around 19.
—For reference.

$ONDO shared a week ago, and it's currently entering the target take-profit zone.

$DASH consolidation is pretty good, let's watch the three waves.
— for reference.

$PEPE For reference.

$MSTR has finally officially broken through the EMA200 as well. After adding the first 1x leveraged long base position on August 21, it kept adding along the way.
Next, it should go toward around 200.
—For reference.

$BTC has finally broken through as scheduled.

$NEAR Three weeks ago, the sharing of the position at 2.2 has already fully reached the target take-profit level, and the remaining positions have all been cleared as well. For now, I’m not trying to bet on a one-time breakout of the large-scale downward trendline. Going forward, based on $BTC , if it can break through and hold, then consider entering again.
—For reference.

$ONDO in this range, it again oscillated and consolidated for more than 130 days. If it breaks through successfully and starts a new round of upward movement, the target is the 0.55–0.6 range.
—— For reference.

When $BTC broke below 75000, it wiped out my entire position. But later, I resolutely reopened the whole position. I still believe this is another bear trap here. I’d rather be stopped out again than endure the pain of "selling too early against my own judgment."
—For reference.

$NEAR Two weeks ago shared.

$BTC Believe your “mind,” not your “eyes.”

$BTC positions fully filled, let it happen naturally.

Go long before the two waves of uptrends that started on August 17 and September 10 for $BTC .
Let me talk about the next steps for $BTC . Here, there is a chance to sweep the liquidity around 83,000 and then keep consolidating with a pullback. But in my view, this time is not quite the same—because if price breaks above 82,000 again, this would be the first time on the daily chart that it stands above the MA365.
As long as it holds above the MA365, the market is likely to stop here, and instead it’s more likely to keep rising toward the next resistance zone at 90,000–95,000.

Next, it’s a matter of taking it step by step and watching. Personally, I will only keep moving my take-profit and protection up on smaller timeframes. Whether it can play out as expected is up to the market—I'll just follow the natural course of events.

—For reference.

$BTC broke below, then after reclaiming, volume increased. The left-side main position’s stop loss was held, I added a bit of position, and kept holding on—let’s see how the market plays out.
——For reference

[About Spot]
$BTC —this is the pullback zone. If it breaks below the stop-loss line for the long position I’m holding on the left side tonight, it’s the blue area below: from 73,000 to 70,000. There are two key support lines, and the area where EMA200 and EMA99 are about to cross.

Once it enters the blue zone: for those without any spot positions, buy the more it drops.

Predicting the pullback price is really a trader’s way of speaking—an analysis script. For example: if it breaks 75,000, watch 74,000 as support; if it breaks again, then look at the 70,000 prior-high support zone. Then you add a series of analysis methods based on different theories. I can’t predict which exact price will get “stabilized,” but when it does, you can try to see it. When it stabilizes and moves upward, that’s the entry point for long positions in futures.

Spot can’t be done like that. Spot must be [“a correct but fuzzy thing”].

My advice for spot is [to do nothing]. My spot positions—$BTC and $MSTR —only add to positions, never reduce them, and I won’t do swing trading.

Don’t move your spot holdings lightly. Once you move once, you’ll want to move again. In a bull market, there are many waves; you’ll eventually sell too early and miss out. Spot is always the [foundation that wins by steady approach]; speculation is about risking small to gain big—not [risking big to chase a small swing].

Spot is your backbone—when the dumbest method is the smartest. Use DCA (dollar-cost averaging) and hold the trend, ignore volatility. Take profit in batches on strength.

The godfather of speculation is Livermore—his ending was suicide. The godfather of long-cycle, value investing is Buffett and Munger—his ending was continued wealth, and he lived to 99.

Livermore’s life experience, for most people, should be like dessert and garnish—don’t really work hard and try to live into his ending.

Ge Weidong started as a speculator and in futures, and later firmly shifted to a long-cycle, value-investing approach—then things became steadily better. Fu Haitang started with agricultural commodity futures; because he lacked knowledge in other areas, he didn’t succeed in transitioning, so he stopped, managed his finances, and left the gambling table—only then was he wise enough to protect himself.

All the arrogant speculators we see today—if they don’t understand how to stop while the wind is at their back—no matter how gifted they are, even like Livermore back then, their ending will probably be something like that.

Bit langlang, the Bit Emperor—over the past two bull cycles, the speculators who made tens of thousands times all chose to exit the stream and retire from the table. The day they leave the gambling table is the day you truly take your money away.

Doing speculation is also to make small-to-big and then do long-cycle investing/speculation afterward; never force yourself into large-position speculation just because you could have done long-cycle instead. That’s reversing cause and effect.

$BTC 接飞刀了，进了点左侧头仓。这个位置4小时前低都没跌破，比美股硬很多。跌破就走。

$BTC It’s time to play the game again.
Figure 1: In April 2019, after a strong short pullback, it continued to break through.
Figure 2: In February 2023, after a weak and complicated pullback, it continued to break through.
Figure 3: Today—does it look strong or weak?

This Week’s Strategy: Staged Defense.