青衫磊落险峰行

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青衫磊落险峰行

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青衫磊落险峰行

Canary further revises the SEI ETF: about 90% of assets will be staked, with full custody by BitGo

A quick note from today's market watch: Canary Capital filed a second amendment to the S-1 for its staking version of the SEI ETF. The direction is clearer now—about 90% of SEI assets are expected to participate in staking, and the related assets are all custodied by BitGo.
This is not approval—it's just a document revision. The ETF still has to go through the SEC process, and it hasn’t started trading yet. Staking can boost the yield narrative, but it also brings risks like fund lockups and penalties for forfeiture; the filing pins custody to BitGo, effectively writing the institutional entry threshold into the prospectus.
OKX spot SEI around $0.0549; 24-hour high $0.0553 and low $0.0471; BTC around $81,778, with a high of $81,830 and a low of $80,133. Fear and Greed Index is 70 (Greed).

BTC+2.96%

SEI+7.75%

青衫磊落险峰行

ZetaChain Passes with 99.4%: Shut Down L1, Migrate to Solana—Price Nearly Unchanged

Rhythm note this morning: ZetaChain proposal 68 passed with about a 99.4% approval rate, with participation around 58%, clearing the 40% quorum. The direction is set—shut down its own Layer 1 built on the Cosmos SDK, and migrate ZETA 1:1 to Solana native SPL, keeping the ticker and total supply unchanged, with the existing unlocking schedule staying as-is. Votes against and abstentions were each about 0.3%.
Don’t treat this as already fully migrated. The proposal itself only approved the direction. There will be a second vote to determine the snapshot height, shut down blocks, and the claiming and withdrawal plan. Also, they’ll wait for exchanges to confirm the exchange/redemption arrangements before submitting the second vote. In the meantime, staking continues and the L1 keeps running as usual. ZETA on Ethereum and BNB Chain are not within the scope this time. The project says the focus is shifting to its private AI applications, Anuma, claiming about 300,000 users and processing roughly 1 million requests across 35 models.

BTC+2.96%

ZETA-16.22%

青衫磊落险峰行

Binance Wallet Launches Pre-Access: Indirect Pre-IPO Exposure Arrives, but the First Project Hasn’t Been Officially Announced Yet

Chain Catcher noted at 17:23 today: Binance Wallet has launched Pre-Access, hosted by PancakeSwap and using a self-custody on-chain model. The goal is to gain indirect tokenized exposure to potential pre-IPO assets from popular private companies. The allocation draws from reliable Alpha Points, and the on-chain bStocks trading volume and holdings help raise the quota. The first project’s official announcement says it will be revealed soon, but the list hasn’t been finalized yet.
On-chain watchers speculate that Paimon’s pPOLY could be the first to go, and the time window matches the Sept 24, 17:00 listing on Binance Alpha. This is just speculation—neither Binance Wallet nor Alpha has confirmed. pPOLY is an indirect exposure to Polymarket-related SPVs, not an official Polymarket token.

BNB+0.72%

BTC+2.96%

青衫磊落险峰行

HYPE touched 94 and slipped back to 91: $269M lent on day one

Yesterday, in my notes on HYPE’s momentum: HYPE once touched about $94.43, setting a new all-time high. At the time, it was up roughly 9.1% over 24 hours, with a market cap around $21 billion. Today, OKX spot is about $91.62; the 24-hour high is 93.4 and the low is 89.66. HTX’s intraday high is about 94.20. The day after the new high, it gave back a few dollars.
Catalysts aren’t just about sentiment. On September 18, HyperCore launched manual lending and borrowing. The official said that on day one, the borrowing volume was about $269 million, allowing users to use HYPE or BTC as collateral to borrow USDC/USDT. Payward, Kraken’s parent company, also weighed in: it plans to bring Hyperliquid on-chain perpetuals to U.S. customers using HIP-3 through Bitnomial, which is regulated by the CFTC. It hasn’t rolled out yet—just the route has been opened.

Strategy up 48% in one month: it’s #1 in the Nasdaq 100, while BTC is still moving sideways around 81k

Market Pulse: today we review BIT data. Strategy (MSTR) has risen about 48% over the past month, ranking first among Nasdaq 100 component stocks. On Friday it led in the U.S. market as well, jumping roughly 16.39% in a single day, closing around $153.92. On the same day, Coinbase rose about 11.66%, while Robinhood gained about 9.12%.
On the company side, it still holds around 840.05k BTC in inventory. Binance Vision spot BTC is about $81,244; the 24-hour high is 81,951 and the low is 80,904, up about 0.2%. The Fear & Greed Index remains at 71 (greed).
A quick takeaway: when the coin-buying ratio (or “股比币”) spikes first, it suggests the leverage narrative is stronger on the stock side—but it doesn’t mean the spot market has already confirmed the next leg. Watch whether next week’s ETF can pick up and continue last Friday’s inflow; that’s more telling than tracking one day’s stock price.

Friday ETF confirmed: $433 million returned in one day, Fidelity adds $310 million

The data wasn’t complete yet the day before yesterday; I only saw a small fund’s multi-million-dollar inflow. Farside has now fully disclosed everything for the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on September 18 (Friday): total net inflows of about $433 million. Fidelity’s FBTC saw about $310.7 million, BlackRock’s IBIT about $108.4 million—together accounting for roughly 97% of that day.
On September 17, the figure was about $159.5 million; over the two days, inflows totaled about $592.5 million. During the middle of the week (15–16), they pulled about $746.3 million in one go, and it hasn’t been fully replenished yet. Binance Vision spot BTC is around $81,212; 24-hour high $81,951, low $80,849, up about 0.4%. Coinbase is around $81,184. The Fear & Greed Index is still at 71 (Greed).

BTC+2.96%

青衫磊落险峰行

Robinhood Chain fees smashed by 97%: trading didn’t stop—just got cheap

Rhythm Today reported a set of glaring figures: Robinhood Chain fee revenue fell from roughly $8 million per day at the early-September peak to about $230,000 on September 16—down about 97%. On the peak day there were roughly 13.1 million transactions, with an average fee of about $0.64 per transaction; on the low day there were about 8.9 million transactions, with an average fee of about $0.026. The transaction count dropped by only about 32%, yet fees were almost cut to nothing.
The activity side didn’t crash in tandem. As of the week of September 16, the ecosystem’s DEX trading volume was about $13 billion, up about 5% month-over-month; stablecoin supply was about $1 billion, down only about 1%. Over the past 24 hours, on-chain apps generated total charges of about $8 million, keeping about $1.5 million for themselves. Token-issuing platform Pons had weekly transaction volume of about $616 million, down about 37% month-over-month.

SOL+1.85%

青衫磊落险峰行

PlanB says the bear market is over: next target about $89,000—first see if it can hold above the weekly trend

Dynamism today rotated to Plan B: one assessment—Bitcoin has broken above the 50-week moving average (about $79,000). The next target is the 100-week moving average (about $89,000). He has personally confirmed that the bear market is over—by the August close of $78,571, the share of profitable Bitcoin rose from 50% to 72%, and the monthly RSI increased from 41 to 51.
Price is already hovering along this range. Binance Vision spot BTC is about $81,348; 24-hour high $81,741 and low $77,972, up about 4.2%. Coinbase is about $81,318. Sentiment is even hotter: Alternative.me’s Fear & Greed Index jumped from 56 yesterday to 71 today (Greed), up 15 points in a day.

BTC+2.96%

青衫磊落险峰行

Altcoins surge first: ARB up 25% in a day, but the ETH ETF keeps withdrawing for three straight days

As for Binance spot, ARB is up about 25.6% over the past 24 hours to $0.2237, NEAR up about 21.2% to $3.733, UNI up about 15.8% to $8.849, and SOL up about 11.8% to $112.97. ETH is around $2614, up about 7.1%, while BTC is around $81072, up about 6.2%. Altcoins are clearly outperforming the big coin/Bitcoin.
Institutional channels haven’t synced. According to the Farside data: US spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of about $142 million on September 15, about $224.1 million on the 16th, and about $39.3 million on the 17th—about $405 million in total over three days. On the 18th, the already-disclosed combined figure showed only about $1.3 million net inflow.
The Jitter homepage is also talking about a counterfeit/"copycat season" narrative, but the ETF saw a three-day massive selloff and only returned to the thousand-level after a day, which suggests this is more like a rotation into high beta following a rebound in risk appetite from trading desks—not that institutional channels have already confirmed a counterfeit season. In the short term, watch whether ETH can hold steady above 2600, and whether the ETH ETF at the start of next week sees continued inflows.

Rate-hike odds for October hit 57.6%: BTC stands above 81,000—don’t treat the squeeze as easing

Last night, a short-squeeze just pushed the price above 80,000; this morning the numbers are even more tangled.
Market pulse by drawing attention to the CME “Fed Watch”: On September 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged in October is about 42.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is about 57.6%. Compared with the FOMC night’s around 40% rate-hike odds at the time, the figures have moved upward instead. On the price side, Binance spot BTC is around $81,031—up about 6.1% over 24 hours, with an intraday high around $81,400. Coinbase’s current price is about $81,016. In the same period, Coinglass shows: over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market were about $531 million, shorts about $471 million, longs about $59.51 million, with around 108,000 traders liquidated.

BTC+2.96%

青衫磊落险峰行

$178 million liquidated longs in an hour: BTC just broke $80K—don’t rush to say it’s back

During the day, people were still discussing 78,000 and the ETF approval turning positive; at night, the price simply surged past it.
Wu said: Dynamis with HTX — On September 18, Bitcoin broke through $80,000; it’s currently quoted at about $80,150, up about 4.99% over the past 24 hours. In the same time window, Coinglass looks even sharper: over the past hour, total liquidations across the market were about $187 million, with shorts around $178 million and longs about $8.22 million. By asset: BTC liquidations were about $119 million, and ETH about $36.04 million. Afterburner monitoring: “BTC OG insider whale” — agent Garrett Jin opened long positions of about 1,330 BTC in the past 4 hours (about $107 million), with an average entry price of $78,057, and unrealized gains of about $3.05 million.
Just one sentence to judge it: this acceleration was driven by short-squeeze pressure, not a confirmed signal of the institutions fully covering. IBIT turned positive only one day during the day, and the ETH ETF is still seeing outflows. For the short term, what you should watch is whether it can hold above 80,000, and whether there’s follow-through after the liquidation wave fades. Don’t treat a one-hour burst of short liquidations as a trend-page turn.

BTC+2.96%

ETH+1.93%

青衫磊落险峰行

Turned positive after two straight days of withdrawals: IBIT pulled in $184 million, BTC back to $78,000

Just two days ago, people were saying that about 750 million was drained out over two days; yesterday, the institutional channel reversed direction.
Farside figures: For U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, net outflows were about $450.4 million on September 15, followed by another $295.9 million outflow on the 16th; on the 17th, total net inflows were about $159.5 million. The main driver was BlackRock’s IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of about $183.7 million. Fidelity’s FBTC still saw outflows of about $16.6 million, and HODL outflows were about $7.6 million. The same numbers were reported in the Jutong (律动) news flash. Ethereum didn’t follow through: on the same day, ETH spot ETFs had net outflows of about $39.3 million, and ETHA alone saw outflows of about $42.9 million.
Prices are back. The pulse with HTX: On September 18, Bitcoin broke through $78,000, rising about 2.01% over 24 hours; Ethereum broke through $2,500, up about 1.22%. CoinDesk wrote that the current price has roughly returned to the level before the Fed’s rate hike on Wednesday. The backdrop is still those two blunt blows: the Senate’s CLARITY bill is stuck at around 49 votes; a 25-basis-point hike takes the rate to 3.75%–4.00%. The intraday low on Tuesday was around $74,887, but it stabilized quickly. As of September so far, it’s down about 1.5%, weaker than the average September in previous years by some margin.

BTC+2.96%

ETH+1.93%

IBITETF-0.37%

青衫磊落险峰行

Reversal of seven-day revenue: Robinhood Chain overtakes Hyperliquid

DefiLlama’s seven-day application-layer revenue as of September 18: Robinhood Chain $158.5 million, Hyperliquid L1 $12.44 million, difference $3.41 million.
First is still Solana, $37.42 million. What can be overtaken is behind it: Ethereum $11.9 million, which has already fallen behind this new chain. BNB Chain $6.6 million.
This column is application-layer net receipts, not market cap or Twitter volume. The seven-day 15.85 million indicates the order was executed on-chain.
Hyperliquid hasn’t been left behind; it’s just that over these seven days it’s down by 3.41 million. One overnight order book can flip it. What to watch is whether it’s still there next week in second place.
Not investment advice.

SEC’s Five-Year Exemption Takes Effect: Tokenized U.S. Stocks Get the Green Light, UNI Jumps 18% in a Day

After the Senate’s CLARITY stalled at around 50 votes, the SEC didn’t wait for Congress and opened the door on its own.
Reuters, CNBC, and CoinDesk all wrote that on September 17, the U.S. SEC published the “innovation exemption.” For qualifying tokenized securities trading venues (TSVs), it granted a conditional five-year exemption, allowing them not to register as a traditional “exchange.” Liquidity providers supporting the program may also be exempt from “dealer” registration. It only covers tokenized NMS stocks, and the token holders must retain rights equivalent to those of the underlying listed stock, such as dividends and voting. Synthetic or derivative-style stock tokens are not included. The venue must provide the issuer with 30 days’ advance notice; if the issuer objects, the process can be halted. Atkins said this is a transitional arrangement and that formal rules will follow later.

$746 million pulled out in two days: ETFs are withdrawing, but BTC is still hanging around $76.5k

Over the past two days, the institutional channel has been pulling funds out, but the spot price hasn’t fallen through as well.
SoSoValue: For US spot Bitcoin ETFs, net outflows were about $450.4 million on September 15, and another $295.98 million on September 16. The total over two days was about $746.3 million. Farside’s figures are close: on the 16th, about $295.9 million outflow in total—within that, BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw an outflow of about $144.11 million, ARKB about $84.4 million, FBTC about $52.72 million, and GBTC about $18.22 million. On that day, only Morgan Stanley’s MSBT had a net inflow of about $3.47 million. Cumulative net inflows still remain around $54.57–$54.64 billion, and total net assets are about $9.519 billion—there’s still underlying support, and the pace is clearly slowing.

BTC+2.96%

青衫磊落险峰行

Verified

The dot plot is harsher than the rate hike: 16 bets on another hike this year; BTC falls back to 763,000

Those 25 basis points from last night have landed.
The Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25-basis-point rate hike. The target range for the federal funds rate was raised from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. It was the first rate hike since 2023. Ahead of the meeting, the CME FedWatch reported the probability at about 93%, and the market had already priced it in.
What really stings is the dot plot. Fed Pulse: Among 18 officials who submitted forecasts, 16 said another rate hike is still needed this year; 12 favored cumulative hikes of 50 basis points in 2026, while 4 favored 75 basis points. Six officials said rates should stay unchanged for the full year or that there should be a rate cut—by June, there were nine; this time, it all fell to zero. The median puts the year-end interest rate at about 4.1%, and in 2027 it remains around 4.1% as well. The median PCE inflation expectation was revised up to 3.7%, with core PCE to 3.4%. The unemployment rate forecast, however, was revised down to 4.1%. When the economy is a bit stronger and inflation is higher, officials follow this line.

BTC+2.96%

青衫磊落险峰行

Tonight’s FOMC: 25 bps already priced in—the real focus is the dot plot and Warsh

The CLARITY gate has already been cleared. Tonight we switch to the main storyline: the Federal Reserve.
The decision is at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17). At 2:30, Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference. CME FedWatch puts the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at about 92%–93%; a month ago, that figure was only around 33% (as relayed by 律动 to Algoz). If the federal funds target range is raised, it would move from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This is the first rate-hike window since 2023, but the market has already priced in this step well ahead of time.
On the Bitcoin side, Binance spot is about $761,000. It’s down about 1.1% over the past 24 hours, with the intraday low touching around $750,000. According to律动, it’s down about 4% over the past week. Coinbase spot is around $76,016. Jiang Zhuo’er relayed: Yesterday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $450 million, and Ethereum ETFs about $141 million—both are relatively large single-day figures in recent months. Talos data shows that before the decision, stablecoin net buying tendency rose to 28%, while Bitcoin buy-side interest dropped from 10% to 3%—positioning is reducing risk and building cash.

BTC+2.96%

青衫磊落险峰行

CLARITY stalls at about 50 votes: the bill isn’t dead, but the year-end pathway is basically blocked

The hurdle that we’d been watching last night has its result. The U.S. Senate held a procedural vote on the CLARITY encryption market structure bill: the yes votes were about 50, which is roughly 10 short of the 60 needed to move into formal debate. CoinDesk reported 49 yes and 50 no; CNBC reported 50 yes and 49 no; and律动快讯 (LMT News) reported 50:50. Across these different counts, the numbers differ by a couple of votes, but the conclusion is the same: even a simple majority is barely met, let alone the 60-vote threshold.
This doesn’t mean the bill is permanently dead. As律动快讯 put it plainly: it’s just temporarily unable to advance to formal consideration and discussion of amendments. But the calendar is tight. Members of Congress are scheduled to leave for campaigning in early October, and the midterm elections are in November. Before the vote, Senator Lummis told reporters that if this one doesn’t pass, “that’s it.” To get 60 votes across party lines again within the year, the room is already very limited.

Prediction market slashed to 18%: don’t just watch CLARITY— the SEC has opened another track

Still writing today’s 60-ticket mark in the morning. Overnight, the prediction market chart broke down a notch first. On Polymarket, “this year’s law” fell from about 34% at Monday’s peak to around 18%; Grayscale was still calling during the day for something close to 30%.
The resistance has been spelled out very specifically. A joint letter from eight bank associations asks to tighten stablecoin rewards, complaining that the “circuit breaker” should only be triggered after deposits run out. Led by the New York State attorney general, along with 17 other state attorneys general, they warn that federal overreach will weaken their ability to investigate fraud. With 53 seats for the Republicans, they still need to pull in Democrats. At 2:15 p.m. Eastern, there’s a procedural vote—only after it passes will the debate begin; it doesn’t mean the law is already set in stone.

BTC+2.96%

青衫磊落险峰行

CLARITY clears the 60-vote hurdle today: prediction markets double; analysts still give only 25%

Today’s focus isn’t rate hikes. This afternoon in the U.S. East, the Senate will take a procedural vote on the CLARITY crypto market structure bill. The threshold is 60 votes. If it passes, it moves into the formal debate—but that doesn’t mean the law is already in effect.
Prediction markets have suddenly heated up over the past few days. On Polymarket, “becoming law this year” rose from roughly 12% at the start of September to nearly 30% by early Monday morning. Kalshi is even more bullish: “passing by October 2027” climbed from about 26% to 53%, even hitting 64% intraday. The driving force is the final text issued by Republicans late Monday, which includes moral/ethical provisions.
Wall Street didn’t join the celebrations. On Monday, TD Cowen’s Jaret Sieberg still kept the probability of final passage down to around 25%. His point is straightforward: it’s still unclear whether the moral/ethical provisions are enough for a moderate enough Democratic Party; Trump could still use blind trust to hold crypto positions; and if it passes before the election, Democrats still have to do the political arithmetic. The Republicans have 53 seats—reportedly at least two votes will be against, and they’ll likely need to pull in about nine more Democrats.

BTC+2.96%

青衫磊落险峰行

Canary further revises the SEI ETF: about 90% of assets will be staked, with full custody by BitGo

ZetaChain Passes with 99.4%: Shut Down L1, Migrate to Solana—Price Nearly Unchanged

Binance Wallet Launches Pre-Access: Indirect Pre-IPO Exposure Arrives, but the First Project Hasn’t Been Officially Announced Yet

HYPE touched 94 and slipped back to 91: $269M lent on day one

Strategy up 48% in one month: it’s #1 in the Nasdaq 100, while BTC is still moving sideways around 81k

Friday ETF confirmed: $433 million returned in one day, Fidelity adds $310 million

Robinhood Chain fees smashed by 97%: trading didn’t stop—just got cheap

PlanB says the bear market is over: next target about $89,000—first see if it can hold above the weekly trend

Altcoins surge first: ARB up 25% in a day, but the ETH ETF keeps withdrawing for three straight days

Rate-hike odds for October hit 57.6%: BTC stands above 81,000—don’t treat the squeeze as easing

$178 million liquidated longs in an hour: BTC just broke $80K—don’t rush to say it’s back

Turned positive after two straight days of withdrawals: IBIT pulled in $184 million, BTC back to $78,000

Reversal of seven-day revenue: Robinhood Chain overtakes Hyperliquid

SEC’s Five-Year Exemption Takes Effect: Tokenized U.S. Stocks Get the Green Light, UNI Jumps 18% in a Day

$746 million pulled out in two days: ETFs are withdrawing, but BTC is still hanging around $76.5k

The dot plot is harsher than the rate hike: 16 bets on another hike this year; BTC falls back to 763,000

Tonight’s FOMC: 25 bps already priced in—the real focus is the dot plot and Warsh

CLARITY stalls at about 50 votes: the bill isn’t dead, but the year-end pathway is basically blocked

Prediction market slashed to 18%: don’t just watch CLARITY— the SEC has opened another track

CLARITY clears the 60-vote hurdle today: prediction markets double; analysts still give only 25%

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