Data: Since 1999, Nvidia has fallen 30% from a peak 11 times; it's now down 29.4% from its Oct 6 peak.
→ After that threshold, the median further drop was 30%; the steepest was 78% in 2008
→ 12 months later, 7 of the 11 were higher: 2008 down 66%, 2020 up 138%
→ Back to the peak: 81 days in 2020, 541 days in 2022
I think −30% isn't a discount tag; the question is whether this is a 2020-style panic or a 2022-style repricing. Worst case: if Nvidia closes below $167.5 and yields stay at 5%, a long 2022-style road follows; I'm watching.
#Stocks #AI
Watching: $NVDA
→ After that threshold, the median further drop was 30%; the steepest was 78% in 2008
→ 12 months later, 7 of the 11 were higher: 2008 down 66%, 2020 up 138%
→ Back to the peak: 81 days in 2020, 541 days in 2022
I think −30% isn't a discount tag; the question is whether this is a 2020-style panic or a 2022-style repricing. Worst case: if Nvidia closes below $167.5 and yields stay at 5%, a long 2022-style road follows; I'm watching.
#Stocks #AI
Watching: $NVDA
