7.7 million wallets. 384 million trades. 820 million rows of data. A few thousand dollars to run it all. The conclusion? Copy traders can’t win 🦖
🚨 行情变了群里说
White Whale Labs has just published an audit study of Solana meme coins. Starting in late August, it recorded every trade in all new tokens on the two major launch platforms, covering over 1 million liquidity pools, 7.7 million wallets, and 384 million swaps. That’s 56 GB of data and 820 million rows—and the numbers are still growing by 18 to 25 million trades, up to around 1 million wallets, and over 60,000 new launches every day 📊
First, a number that looks pretty good: of the tokens that saw real trading activity, about one in ten doubled in value within 24 hours. Of 22.8 million first buys over two weeks, 17% doubled before dropping 40%. But once the study factored in costs, a strategy of taking profit at 2x and cutting losses at -40% lost an average of 19% per trade. Picking winners wasn’t that uncommon—the gains just weren’t enough to cover the losses.
What really created a gap were wallet clusters. These clusters, made up of 450 to 2,000 wallets, bought heavily within one to two minutes of a token launching. For tokens they participated in, the rate of doubling was 28% to 46%, and the share that doubled before dropping 40% was 50% to 60%. For other wallets, it was only 17%. The study tracked 9 to 33 such groups each day 🐋
At this point, many people will think: then just copy their trades. The study tested that, too. Entering two minutes after a large cluster, across 93 tokens, resulted in a 41% loss per token, with a median drop of 95%. Following groups with a positive track record still lost 11% per token. Backtesting a strategy that followed just one wallet lost 20% per trade. Only a few tightly coordinated small groups made around 10% per token across 16 tokens.
The machine-learning section was even harsher. A neural network boosted the share of tokens that doubled from about 10% to 26%—it looked as if it had found a pattern. But across 771 picks over eight days, every single day ended in a loss. The average loss per trade was 11%, the median drop was 45%, and 55% hit their stop-loss within 24 hours. The researchers said they spent a few thousand dollars on API access, servers, and model costs, but ultimately found no edge they could monetize 💥
My take is that the real message of this study isn’t whether you can make money on meme coins. It’s that the edge isn’t in picking tokens—it’s in speed. Wallet clusters profit from the price gap and liquidity in the first minute or two after launch. By the time you see the news, they’re already getting ready to sell. When you copy their trades, you’re not copying their strategy—you’re becoming the counterparty to their exit.
So what’s worth watching isn’t the next 100x coin, but how long cluster wallets hold their tokens and when they start transferring them out. You can track all of this on-chain. Once a cluster starts moving tokens to an exchange, that’s the signal. On the other hand, chasing a token while the cluster is still adding to its position just means helping them pump it.
Has anyone you know actually made money by following a copy-trading group? Let’s talk in the comments—and tell me whether you think this comes down to luck or speed.
Every day, I bring you the latest Solana meme coin buzz—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
Tap my profile picture to watch the livestream
🚨 行情变了群里说
White Whale Labs has just published an audit study of Solana meme coins. Starting in late August, it recorded every trade in all new tokens on the two major launch platforms, covering over 1 million liquidity pools, 7.7 million wallets, and 384 million swaps. That’s 56 GB of data and 820 million rows—and the numbers are still growing by 18 to 25 million trades, up to around 1 million wallets, and over 60,000 new launches every day 📊
First, a number that looks pretty good: of the tokens that saw real trading activity, about one in ten doubled in value within 24 hours. Of 22.8 million first buys over two weeks, 17% doubled before dropping 40%. But once the study factored in costs, a strategy of taking profit at 2x and cutting losses at -40% lost an average of 19% per trade. Picking winners wasn’t that uncommon—the gains just weren’t enough to cover the losses.
What really created a gap were wallet clusters. These clusters, made up of 450 to 2,000 wallets, bought heavily within one to two minutes of a token launching. For tokens they participated in, the rate of doubling was 28% to 46%, and the share that doubled before dropping 40% was 50% to 60%. For other wallets, it was only 17%. The study tracked 9 to 33 such groups each day 🐋
At this point, many people will think: then just copy their trades. The study tested that, too. Entering two minutes after a large cluster, across 93 tokens, resulted in a 41% loss per token, with a median drop of 95%. Following groups with a positive track record still lost 11% per token. Backtesting a strategy that followed just one wallet lost 20% per trade. Only a few tightly coordinated small groups made around 10% per token across 16 tokens.
The machine-learning section was even harsher. A neural network boosted the share of tokens that doubled from about 10% to 26%—it looked as if it had found a pattern. But across 771 picks over eight days, every single day ended in a loss. The average loss per trade was 11%, the median drop was 45%, and 55% hit their stop-loss within 24 hours. The researchers said they spent a few thousand dollars on API access, servers, and model costs, but ultimately found no edge they could monetize 💥
My take is that the real message of this study isn’t whether you can make money on meme coins. It’s that the edge isn’t in picking tokens—it’s in speed. Wallet clusters profit from the price gap and liquidity in the first minute or two after launch. By the time you see the news, they’re already getting ready to sell. When you copy their trades, you’re not copying their strategy—you’re becoming the counterparty to their exit.
So what’s worth watching isn’t the next 100x coin, but how long cluster wallets hold their tokens and when they start transferring them out. You can track all of this on-chain. Once a cluster starts moving tokens to an exchange, that’s the signal. On the other hand, chasing a token while the cluster is still adding to its position just means helping them pump it.
Has anyone you know actually made money by following a copy-trading group? Let’s talk in the comments—and tell me whether you think this comes down to luck or speed.
Every day, I bring you the latest Solana meme coin buzz—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
Tap my profile picture to watch the livestream