15.5% may be October’s biggest trap 🦖
🕐 最新解读群里更新
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the market sees an 84.5% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting, and just a 15.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. In other words, traders have all but declared in advance that the Fed won’t make a move this month.
The problem is, the data from the past two weeks don’t support this sense of ease.
US PPI rose to 6.3% year over year in September. Brent crude hit $110 for the first time since May. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5.1%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% for the week, its biggest weekly drop since the tariff turmoil of April 2025. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight straight trading days, its longest losing streak since 2008, with a decline of around 16% over that stretch.
More importantly, Fed Chair Warsh’s remarks last week at the IMF’s annual meeting in Bangkok. He said that capital pouring into AI infrastructure is an economic shock that will push up inflation and interest rates in the short term. And he gave not a single hint about the October 28 meeting ⚠️
That’s the most dangerous thing about the market right now: everyone is treating no rate hike as the default, but nobody is pricing in a hawkish surprise.
Let me put it another way: 15.5% isn’t a forecast. It’s a cheap insurance policy. If the Fed really does hold steady, risk assets will probably breathe a sigh of relief. Bitcoin is at $81,890, up 0.52% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is at $2,423, virtually flat. That shows even the bulls aren’t daring to celebrate early. But if Warsh officially cites AI capital spending as an inflation risk in the statement, or the dot plot signals another hike this year, that 15.5% tail risk will be repriced in an instant. Crypto’s high-beta assets will feel it first 💥
Don’t forget: the September hike was the first since July 2023. Rates are now at 3.75%–4.00%, and it took the market less than a month to absorb it as background noise.
What you should really be watching isn’t whether rates go up in October, but whether the statement links AI investment to inflation. If that line appears, the impact won’t be limited to October—it will shape the entire rate path for next year.
Do you think the Fed will hold steady on October 28, or will Warsh pull off another surprise attack? Let’s talk in the comments 👀
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I bring you the latest crypto market trends—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
🕐 最新解读群里更新
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the market sees an 84.5% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting, and just a 15.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. In other words, traders have all but declared in advance that the Fed won’t make a move this month.
The problem is, the data from the past two weeks don’t support this sense of ease.
US PPI rose to 6.3% year over year in September. Brent crude hit $110 for the first time since May. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5.1%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% for the week, its biggest weekly drop since the tariff turmoil of April 2025. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight straight trading days, its longest losing streak since 2008, with a decline of around 16% over that stretch.
More importantly, Fed Chair Warsh’s remarks last week at the IMF’s annual meeting in Bangkok. He said that capital pouring into AI infrastructure is an economic shock that will push up inflation and interest rates in the short term. And he gave not a single hint about the October 28 meeting ⚠️
That’s the most dangerous thing about the market right now: everyone is treating no rate hike as the default, but nobody is pricing in a hawkish surprise.
Let me put it another way: 15.5% isn’t a forecast. It’s a cheap insurance policy. If the Fed really does hold steady, risk assets will probably breathe a sigh of relief. Bitcoin is at $81,890, up 0.52% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is at $2,423, virtually flat. That shows even the bulls aren’t daring to celebrate early. But if Warsh officially cites AI capital spending as an inflation risk in the statement, or the dot plot signals another hike this year, that 15.5% tail risk will be repriced in an instant. Crypto’s high-beta assets will feel it first 💥
Don’t forget: the September hike was the first since July 2023. Rates are now at 3.75%–4.00%, and it took the market less than a month to absorb it as background noise.
What you should really be watching isn’t whether rates go up in October, but whether the statement links AI investment to inflation. If that line appears, the impact won’t be limited to October—it will shape the entire rate path for next year.
Do you think the Fed will hold steady on October 28, or will Warsh pull off another surprise attack? Let’s talk in the comments 👀
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I bring you the latest crypto market trends—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀