On October 17, the Fed officially entered its communications blackout period ahead of its policy meeting. The latest U.S. CPI for September rose 3.7% year over year, above expectations. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not maintain the hawkish stance he took at the Jackson Hole meeting, and struck a noticeably more moderate tone.
Here is a summary of institutional analysis and key points:
1. Key signals from Warsh: leaning toward a pause in rate hikes?
* No advance commitment to a rate hike: Warsh stressed that the Fed would “make decisions meeting by meeting,” characterizing September’s rate hike as “removing policy accommodation” rather than the start of a tightening cycle.
* No reiteration of hawkish remarks: Despite the hotter-than-expected September CPI data, Warsh said economic performance was broadly in line with September expectations. He did not make a strong case for another rate hike in October ahead of the blackout period.
* Institutional expectations: Bloomberg Economics noted that Warsh’s “lack of a clear stance” was itself the biggest signal, suggesting the Fed would most likely hold rates steady at its October 27–28 policy meeting.
2. AI’s dual impact on inflation and monetary policy
Warsh is optimistic that AI will boost long-term productivity, but also acknowledged that AI could have a temporary impact on the economy and inflation:
* Short-term demand-side pressure: Large-scale construction and investment in the AI sector are rapidly driving up demand, which could push inflation higher in the short term.
* Medium-term supply-side benefits: AI will ultimately be a positive supply shock, significantly boosting productivity and easing inflationary pressures over the longer term.
3. Goldman Sachs’ quantitative assessment: AI hardware and computing power add 45 basis points to PCE inflation
In its latest report, Goldman Sachs broke down the specific inflationary impact of AI-related demand:
* Memory and software: Contribute about 20 basis points to Core PCE inflation, much of which is attributable to statistical distortions.
* Electronic components: Expected to contribute a cumulative 15 basis points by the end of next year.
* Data center electricity consumption: Adds a combined 10–20 basis points through corporate energy costs and household electricity bills.
* Industrial metals: Data center infrastructure demand adds about 5 basis points to core inflation.
* Goldman Sachs’ conclusion: AI is adding about 45 basis points to inflation, and its impact is nearing a peak. As hardware prices ease next year, Core PCE is expected to move back toward the 2% target.
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Here is a summary of institutional analysis and key points:
1. Key signals from Warsh: leaning toward a pause in rate hikes?
* No advance commitment to a rate hike: Warsh stressed that the Fed would “make decisions meeting by meeting,” characterizing September’s rate hike as “removing policy accommodation” rather than the start of a tightening cycle.
* No reiteration of hawkish remarks: Despite the hotter-than-expected September CPI data, Warsh said economic performance was broadly in line with September expectations. He did not make a strong case for another rate hike in October ahead of the blackout period.
* Institutional expectations: Bloomberg Economics noted that Warsh’s “lack of a clear stance” was itself the biggest signal, suggesting the Fed would most likely hold rates steady at its October 27–28 policy meeting.
2. AI’s dual impact on inflation and monetary policy
Warsh is optimistic that AI will boost long-term productivity, but also acknowledged that AI could have a temporary impact on the economy and inflation:
* Short-term demand-side pressure: Large-scale construction and investment in the AI sector are rapidly driving up demand, which could push inflation higher in the short term.
* Medium-term supply-side benefits: AI will ultimately be a positive supply shock, significantly boosting productivity and easing inflationary pressures over the longer term.
3. Goldman Sachs’ quantitative assessment: AI hardware and computing power add 45 basis points to PCE inflation
In its latest report, Goldman Sachs broke down the specific inflationary impact of AI-related demand:
* Memory and software: Contribute about 20 basis points to Core PCE inflation, much of which is attributable to statistical distortions.
* Electronic components: Expected to contribute a cumulative 15 basis points by the end of next year.
* Data center electricity consumption: Adds a combined 10–20 basis points through corporate energy costs and household electricity bills.
* Industrial metals: Data center infrastructure demand adds about 5 basis points to core inflation.
* Goldman Sachs’ conclusion: AI is adding about 45 basis points to inflation, and its impact is nearing a peak. As hardware prices ease next year, Core PCE is expected to move back toward the 2% target.
#币安交易所股票