#比特币回升至8.2万美元 #美联储10月加息概率降至约17%
The odds of a Fed rate hike in October plunged from 27% to 15% in a single day—and the chair didn’t even say a single tough word 🦖
📣 盘面异动群里喊
On October 16, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided making any comment on further rate hikes throughout a public conversation with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Georgieva. The market immediately cut the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in October from 27% to 15%. Bitcoin held above $80,000, hovering around $82,000 before and after the U.S. stock market opened.
His exact words were: “I don’t prejudge meetings, and I don’t think I should say now what I’ll do at the remaining meetings this year.” ⚖️ Traders read that language as a dovish signal, and that one sentence took half the October policy meeting off the table.
First, let’s look at how this sell-off started. Last week, a string of declines in South Korean tech stocks dragged down sentiment across Asia. The KOSPI closed Friday at 5,668, rebounding 2% on the day, but still down 8.3% for the week. The Nasdaq closed down 0.5% that day, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.5%. Investors weren’t ready to fully return to the market.
The number really holding the Fed back is something else: the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back to 5.13%. Economist Robin Brooks believes Warsh isn’t rushing to raise rates because if the AI sector runs into trouble, the market will need low interest rates even more as a backstop. In other words, the very thing keeping the Fed from raising rates is the fear that the AI bubble could burst.
As for Bitcoin, buyers scooped it up at $80,000 on Thursday, and it hasn’t lost that level since. It’s currently around $81,381, up 0.8% over 24 hours. Ethereum is at $2,431, nearly flat; Solana is at $103.91, up 1.48%; and XRP is at $1.30, up 2.17%. 💥
My take: don’t treat this rebound as a full-fledged market revival just yet. It looks more like a reset in expectations. The market had already priced in a rate hike, but now it’s realized that even the chair isn’t in a hurry, so it’s backing away from the worst-case scenario for now. But no hike in October doesn’t mean no hike in December. Warsh is deliberately making no promises, leaving himself room to change course based on the data.
There are two things worth watching. First, the upcoming PPI and CPI reports. If inflation data comes in hot again, that 15% figure could quickly shoot back up. Second, whether South Korean tech stocks and the AI sector can stop falling, because right now they’re both a source of market risk and a reason for the Fed to hold steady. 🐋
Do you think this is a genuine rebound after rate-hike expectations faded, or another bull trap? Let’s talk in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I’ll help you follow the latest in crypto—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀
The odds of a Fed rate hike in October plunged from 27% to 15% in a single day—and the chair didn’t even say a single tough word 🦖
📣 盘面异动群里喊
On October 16, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided making any comment on further rate hikes throughout a public conversation with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Georgieva. The market immediately cut the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in October from 27% to 15%. Bitcoin held above $80,000, hovering around $82,000 before and after the U.S. stock market opened.
His exact words were: “I don’t prejudge meetings, and I don’t think I should say now what I’ll do at the remaining meetings this year.” ⚖️ Traders read that language as a dovish signal, and that one sentence took half the October policy meeting off the table.
First, let’s look at how this sell-off started. Last week, a string of declines in South Korean tech stocks dragged down sentiment across Asia. The KOSPI closed Friday at 5,668, rebounding 2% on the day, but still down 8.3% for the week. The Nasdaq closed down 0.5% that day, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.5%. Investors weren’t ready to fully return to the market.
The number really holding the Fed back is something else: the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back to 5.13%. Economist Robin Brooks believes Warsh isn’t rushing to raise rates because if the AI sector runs into trouble, the market will need low interest rates even more as a backstop. In other words, the very thing keeping the Fed from raising rates is the fear that the AI bubble could burst.
As for Bitcoin, buyers scooped it up at $80,000 on Thursday, and it hasn’t lost that level since. It’s currently around $81,381, up 0.8% over 24 hours. Ethereum is at $2,431, nearly flat; Solana is at $103.91, up 1.48%; and XRP is at $1.30, up 2.17%. 💥
My take: don’t treat this rebound as a full-fledged market revival just yet. It looks more like a reset in expectations. The market had already priced in a rate hike, but now it’s realized that even the chair isn’t in a hurry, so it’s backing away from the worst-case scenario for now. But no hike in October doesn’t mean no hike in December. Warsh is deliberately making no promises, leaving himself room to change course based on the data.
There are two things worth watching. First, the upcoming PPI and CPI reports. If inflation data comes in hot again, that 15% figure could quickly shoot back up. Second, whether South Korean tech stocks and the AI sector can stop falling, because right now they’re both a source of market risk and a reason for the Fed to hold steady. 🐋
Do you think this is a genuine rebound after rate-hike expectations faded, or another bull trap? Let’s talk in the comments.
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream.
Every day, I’ll help you follow the latest in crypto—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀