Yes, but the quote is slightly misframed in your post - it's optimistic long-term, not a doom warning.$AGT $SIREN $TIA
*Fed Chair Kevin Warsh - Bangkok, Oct 16, 2026* - IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, fireside chat with IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva:
"I'd say the advent of this new technology is probably the most consequential change to the US and the global economy in my lifetime"
> "The path from where we are to there is likely to be a *very bumpy* one, bumpy in our understanding of the technology, bumpy because we really don't know what the market structure is going to be"
*His full take - not just bumpy:*
- *Near-term = inflationary:* AI hits *demand side first* - massive capex surge driving prices up before productivity shows up. He said Fed takes this "soberly, responsibly"
- *Medium-term = positive supply shock:* "huge benefit to the global economy", "make economies and countries that put it to good use more productive" and wealthier
- *Jobs:* effect in next 12-18 months unclear
- Fed will itself use AI to better analyze data for monetary policy
- Also joked: "You pronounce it AI, in the US we now pronounce it SI" - referencing Trump's push to call it Super Intelligence
*Context:* This was right after September hike to *3.75%-4%*. Warsh declined to give forward guidance for Oct 27-28 meeting - markets pricing โผ72-87% chance of *hold* then, 25bp hike in December. He also announced Fed AI task force field hearing *Nov 16 in SF Bay Area* (members include Marc Andreessen, Stanford's Charles Jones, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma).
So not "regulators lack insight = crash alert" - he said bumpy _because_ we don't know the market structure yet, but long-run = more wealth.
*Fed Chair Kevin Warsh - Bangkok, Oct 16, 2026* - IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, fireside chat with IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva:
"I'd say the advent of this new technology is probably the most consequential change to the US and the global economy in my lifetime"
> "The path from where we are to there is likely to be a *very bumpy* one, bumpy in our understanding of the technology, bumpy because we really don't know what the market structure is going to be"
*His full take - not just bumpy:*
- *Near-term = inflationary:* AI hits *demand side first* - massive capex surge driving prices up before productivity shows up. He said Fed takes this "soberly, responsibly"
- *Medium-term = positive supply shock:* "huge benefit to the global economy", "make economies and countries that put it to good use more productive" and wealthier
- *Jobs:* effect in next 12-18 months unclear
- Fed will itself use AI to better analyze data for monetary policy
- Also joked: "You pronounce it AI, in the US we now pronounce it SI" - referencing Trump's push to call it Super Intelligence
*Context:* This was right after September hike to *3.75%-4%*. Warsh declined to give forward guidance for Oct 27-28 meeting - markets pricing โผ72-87% chance of *hold* then, 25bp hike in December. He also announced Fed AI task force field hearing *Nov 16 in SF Bay Area* (members include Marc Andreessen, Stanford's Charles Jones, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma).
So not "regulators lack insight = crash alert" - he said bumpy _because_ we don't know the market structure yet, but long-run = more wealth.