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【Latest remarks from Fed Chair Warsh: No pre-judgment on October/December rate cuts; no “free riders” in global tightening】Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a major speech at the 2026 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, signaling multiple policy and economic messages. What impact could this have on the cryptocurrency market?

Impact on the cryptocurrency market
* Macro liquidity comes under pressure, and BTC’s short-term correlation with U.S. equities rises
* A short-term headwind for risk appetite: Cryptocurrencies are high-beta risk assets that rely heavily on ample global central-bank liquidity. The Fed is keeping its policy path for October and December “ambiguous,” while central banks around the world are tightening in tandem. This means expectations of abundant macro-level fiat liquidity may not materialize in the short term, potentially triggering a period of pullbacks or sharp volatility in BTC and altcoins.
* Reinforces BTC’s “digital gold” status, while altcoins diverge
* A medium- to long-term positive for BTC: Warsh has repeatedly called Bitcoin “digital gold” and a “wake-up call” about central-bank policy mistakes. Against a macro backdrop of the Fed and central banks worldwide taking a tough stance against inflation, while fiat purchasing power comes under pressure, the medium- to long-term case for BTC as a borderless hedge asset with a fixed supply will be further reinforced.
* Altcoins and high-risk DeFi face a shakeout: Warsh is cautious, even skeptical, toward speculative tokens without real-world utility. Coupled with the Fed’s concerns about “financial stability risks” in investments in AI and other emerging technologies, altcoin projects lacking regulatory compliance and genuine cash flow may face a liquidity crunch.
* The integration of stablecoins and TradFi slows
* Synchronized tightening by central banks worldwide and the Fed’s close monitoring of financial stability risks mean that Fed oversight of the boundaries between crypto finance (such as algorithmic stablecoins, leveraged RWA, and crypto lending) and traditional banking is likely to become stricter. In the short term, the cost for institutional capital to enter the market through borrowing will remain high.
💡 Trading suggestions for crypto investors:
Ahead of the October and December FOMC meetings, consider reducing high leverage and guarding against “data releases triggering sharp rallies or selloffs” amid the lack of forward guidance. For medium-term allocations, continue focusing on high-consensus blue-chip assets such as BTC, while watching out for liquidity squeezes in altcoins lacking sound fundamentals.
$BTC
$BNB
$ETH

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a major speech at the 2026 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, signaling multiple policy and economic messages:
1️⃣ Interest rate outlook: The remaining rate-setting meetings in October and December 2026 will be crucial. The Fed remains committed to its price-stability goal, refuses to prejudge the outcomes of meetings, and does not favor disclosing its future policy path in advance.
2️⃣ AI and the economy: AI is the most profound economic transformation of his lifetime (known as “SI” in the United States). Its impact on the demand side will become apparent before its impact on the supply side. AI will transform the real economy and help central banks become more confident in their data analysis and policy judgments.
3️⃣ Financial stability and investment: The private sector is increasing investment in new technologies. The Fed does not judge whether investments are right or wrong, but must remain alert to potential risks to financial stability.
4️⃣ Global monetary policy: Inflation is a global challenge, and major central banks around the world are tightening monetary policy in unison. No country can “free-ride.” Fed policy has spillover effects, while also being influenced in turn by global peers.
In a nutshell: The Fed will stick to a “data-dependent” approach and abandon the forward guidance of the past. Markets should be alert to uncertainty about the policy path in the fourth quarter!
Market impact analysis
I. Impact on traditional financial markets (TradFi)
* Increased short-term macro volatility and risk aversion
* Removing forward guidance (No Guidance): Warsh clearly said he would not prejudge the October and December decisions, breaking with the Fed’s past practice of giving markets advance “hints.” This decline in policy transparency under a data-dependent approach could lead to sharper swings in Treasury yields and U.S. stocks ahead of policy meetings.
* Synchronized global tightening: Warsh emphasized that “the world is tightening in unison, and there are no free-riders.” This means global liquidity is unlikely to see broad easing in the short term. Treasury yields may remain high, limiting the potential for U.S. stock valuations to rise.
* Diverging performance among tech stocks and AI-related sectors
* Although Warsh is strongly optimistic about AI’s potential to transform the economy, he specifically cautioned the Fed to “pay attention to the financial risks behind technology investment.” This suggests regulators may step up scrutiny of highly leveraged financing by AI tech giants and debt expansion for computing infrastructure. High-valuation AI tech stocks may face some deleveraging and valuation-correction pressure in the short term.

🚀 Fed Chair Warsh’s major speech in Bangkok is coming up! The final policy signal before the October rate-setting meeting

📌 Key points at a glance:
* Venue: Bangkok, Thailand (the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings)

* Key time: 10:30 a.m. Bangkok time on October 16 (the evening of October 15 U.S. Eastern Time—the final public appearance before the “blackout period” ahead of the FOMC rate-setting meeting)

* Format: A fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva

💡 Four key areas of focus for this speech:

* Inflation resilience and the rate path

* The latest September CPI/PPI readings came in higher than expected, with energy and housing prices continuing to add to inflationary pressures.

* Markets are focused on whether Warsh will signal a hawkish stance at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, such as raising rates again or keeping rates restrictively high.

* Sticking to “doing away with forward guidance”

* Warsh is expected to reiterate his “say less, do more, data-dependent” policy style, avoid making excessive predictions about the future path, and emphasize that monetary policy will be adjusted dynamically based on actual economic indicators.

* Quantitative tightening (QT) and financial conditions

* Discussion of the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and the neutral interest rate, with an emphasis on reducing excessive liquidity intervention and guiding markets back toward pricing based on fundamentals.

* Global economic risks and independence

* He is expected to comment on how geopolitical shocks (such as oil price fluctuations) affect both supply and demand, while emphasizing the Fed’s commitment to maintaining its monetary policy independence.

📉 What impact could this have on the crypto market (BTC /
Crypto)?

* Increased short-term volatility: If Warsh takes a hawkish tone (for example, emphasizing inflation risks and raising expectations of an October rate hike), it could put short-term pressure on the liquidity premium of BTC and other risk assets.

* Whale activity: On-chain data shows signs of whale addresses accumulating coins on dips ahead of the data release and speech, suggesting market participants are waiting for the uncertainty to clear.

* Key levels to watch: Market sentiment remains cautious, and the overall market structure hinges on how the Fed defines the peak for interest rates in the fourth quarter.

#FederalReserve #Macroeconomics #BTC #CPI #BinanceSquare
$SPCX.US
$LLY.US
$GOOG.US

Tesla and SpaceX merger countdown?

Tesla’s 2026 annual shareholder meeting must be held no later than December 6. While a merger of this kind would bring some financial synergies, its real value lies in the vertical integration of the two companies’ artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

SpaceX and Tesla already have several business ties and overlapping investor groups, and both companies are led by Elon Musk. The rocket manufacturer has purchased more than $100 million worth of Tesla Cybertrucks, while xAI is a major customer for Tesla’s utility-scale batteries.

The two companies are also working together on a chip manufacturing project called Terafab. The project will produce semiconductors for Tesla’s electric vehicles, robotaxis, and Optimus robots, as well as a chip designed exclusively for SpaceX’s orbital AI satellites.

Musk has recently discussed various ways his two largest companies could interact and integrate. On the latest earnings call, for example, he said that Tesla and SpaceX “overlap in many areas.”

The possibility of a Tesla/SpaceX merger has increasingly become the market consensus. Although an announcement of a Tesla/SpaceX merger could be delayed until late October or even early November, if it slips into that window, securing shareholder approval for the acquisition at the annual meeting would become significantly more difficult.

Investors and analysts have long widely expected the two Musk-owned companies to merge, especially after SpaceX completes a record-breaking IPO this year. Reports in January said SpaceX had considered merging with Tesla, but ultimately decided to acquire Musk’s AI startup, xAI.

The main obstacle to any deal would be a shareholder vote, as shareholders of both Tesla and SpaceX may need to approve the merger.

“In the vote at Tesla’s 2025 annual shareholder meeting, about 11% of the total shares eligible to vote were ‘broker non-votes,’ which were effectively counted as ‘against’ votes. We expect Tesla to try to increase shareholder participation in a potential vote on a SpaceX merger.”

Are rate-cut expectations about to “cool off”? U.S. September CPI surges—will the Fed raise rates again in October? What does this mean for the crypto market?

Three key takeaways and their potential impact on the crypto market:
1️⃣ CPI exceeds expectations: Inflation rebounds across the board

* Month-over-month and year-over-year increases: In September, CPI rose 0.6% month over month (up from 0.4%) and 3.7% year over year (up from 3.4%).

* Inflation spreads: Price pressures have spread beyond the energy sector to a wider range of industries, raising concerns that “core” inflation could become entrenched.

* Odds of a rate hike rise: According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in October has jumped from 22% to 37%!

2️⃣ Fed officials are divided: Hawkish and dovish voices coexist, while a “wait-and-see” approach prevails

* Daly (President of the San Francisco Fed): Inflation risks remain elevated, and further rate hikes may be needed—although there is no immediate need to act at the October meeting.

* Goolsbee (President of the Chicago Fed): Expressed serious concern about recent upward pressure on prices.

* Bowman (Fed Governor): Believes the Fed still has time to assess the delayed effects of previous rate hikes on the economy and financial markets.

3️⃣ “Beige Book” sounds a warning: Fuel costs are intensifying price pressures

* Labor market: Showing signs of stagnation—new hiring has declined, but layoffs have also fallen. * Regional inflation: Several districts reported “strong” or “accelerating” price increases; meanwhile, persistent uncertainty has also weakened businesses’ optimism about the future. The crypto market’s perspective: What potential impact could this have?

* Short-term liquidity pressures: Rising rate-hike expectations typically push up Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index, potentially creating macroeconomic headwinds for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market in the short term.

* Safe-haven and inflation-hedge properties: If high inflation persists and fiat currencies continue to lose purchasing power, the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold”—an effective inflation hedge—could regain attention in the market.

$LLY.US

Ron Baron expects SpaceX to reach $50 trillion within a decade, up from his previous estimate of $2 trillion — saying Elon Musk thinks his estimate is “way too low”
Investor Ron Baron believes SpaceX could reach a market capitalization of $20 trillion to $50 trillion within a decade, with the Starlink program and space data centers playing key roles. A decade-long rally could send shares soaring to “thousands of dollars per share”
On Tuesday, the founder of Baron Capital said at Columbia Business School’s Distinguished Speakers Series that he believes the company led by Elon Musk will trade at “thousands of dollars per share” within a decade, giving it a market capitalization of “$20 trillion, $30 trillion, $50 trillion.”
SpaceX currently has a market capitalization of about $2.063 trillion.
Baron said he advises friends to buy SpaceX shares and keep adding to their holdings every month, regardless of market fluctuations. If they wake up worried about how much they have invested, he advises: “Then call your broker and buy some more.”
Baron believes that Starlink alone could be worth “about $14 trillion to $15 trillion” in a decade, and that it is still at a “very early stage” of its growth.
He said data centers in space could be “several times the size of Starlink” because “we can’t build them on Earth anymore.” He said investors should expect returns of “at least 20 or 30 times.”
The Bull Case Widens
The bullish case is expanding
Citi analyst John Godin believes the stock could rise to $900 per share, implying a market capitalization of about $12.2 trillion, after Starship successfully carried 26 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit last month.

Last week, the company agreed to acquire nationwide 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management to extend Starlink Mobile from satellites to the ground, potentially challenging AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ).
CNBC host Jim Cramer said last week that SpaceX could deliver returns to investors well before Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Benzinga Edge rankings show that SpaceX shares have positive price trends over the short, medium, and long term.
$SPCX.US

A brand-new protocol powered by Binance stock BNC?
Are institutions getting in early?
Coming soon $

October U.S. Earnings Season! Tech Giants Report in Quick Succession

October 2026 marks a pivotal moment in the U.S. earnings season, with the performance of the AI supply chain and tech giants in the spotlight.

First wave (October 13–15): JPMorgan Chase, ASML, and TSMC report first, drawing attention to the financial sector’s operating conditions and demand for AI chips.

Second wave (October 20–21): Netflix, Tesla, and Meta take their turn, with autonomous driving, AI capital expenditures, and advertising business growth among the key areas to watch.

Third wave (October 28–29): Microsoft joins Google and Amazon in the earnings window. Markets will focus on whether massive AI investments can translate into actual revenue and profit growth. Google’s and Amazon’s earnings dates are estimates.

Notably, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time, adding another major event to the same period as the tech giants’ earnings reports.

Progress in AI commercialization and signals on Fed policy will converge, potentially making late October a key period of volatility for U.S. stocks.

#美股财报季 Tech Giants #U.S. Stock Market #Artificial Intelligence #Earnings Calendar #Fed Rate Decision #U.S. Stock Investing #Tesla #Microsoft #Google #Amazon #Meta #Tesla #TSMC #ASML #奈飞
$GOOG.US

$META.US
$AMZN.US

--No Fed rate hikes needed in 2027?

New York Fed President Williams reiterated that the Fed may need to raise rates once more this year to curb inflation. As for 2027, Williams said there is currently no reason to believe further action will be needed, while leaving room for data to change that outlook.

Boston Fed President Collins believes the Fed needs to raise rates again before the end of this year to rein in high inflation. Collins also said Fed officials recognize that higher interest rates could cause problems for some financial institutions.

Fed Governor Waller said the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects faster economic growth, rather than higher inflation expectations. He noted that inflation expectations remain “firmly anchored.”

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is beginning to feel like “overall economic overheating” caused by spillover effects from the AI investment boom, rather than primarily a byproduct of a supply-chain shock that will fade on its own.

🚀 Tesla’s BTC holdings are valued at $1 billion again! SpaceX’s holdings revealed as well

With Bitcoin (BTC) breaking above the $84,000 mark, the crypto reserves of Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) are once again in the market spotlight!

📌 Key takeaways
* Tesla holdings: Unchanged at 11,509 BTC, with over $122 million in unrealized gains in the short term. Their total value has rebounded from a mid-year low of $674 million to nearly $1 billion.

* SpaceX reserves: Also holds 8,285 BTC, demonstrating the diversified treasury asset allocation of Musk-owned companies.

* Strategic shift: After building its position in 2021 and making two strategic sell-offs (reducing holdings by 10% in Q1 2021 to test liquidity, and by 75% in 2022 to address cash flow), Tesla has fully shifted to a long-term, passive holding strategy (HODL), with no more frequent arbitrage.

* Favorable FASB accounting treatment: Under the latest FASB accounting standards requiring measurement at fair value, companies can reflect appreciation in crypto assets in a timely manner, helping their financial reports show stronger results.

💡 Outlook: Tesla is set to disclose its audited BTC reserve balance in its Q3 2026 financial report. This will be a key milestone for institutional investors and the market to watch!

#BTC #TSLA #SpaceX #BinanceSquare $BTC

$SPCX.US
$TSLA.US

SpaceX proposes major Starship expansion, with up to 456 launches and 912 landings per year

SpaceX plans to significantly increase the number of Starship rocket launches and landings at its Starbase facility in South Texas, expanding its annual flight operations to hundreds of missions.

The U.S. government is currently reviewing the plan. On Tuesday, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced that it would prepare an environmental impact statement on SpaceX’s proposal and hold public hearings. According to information disclosed by the FAA, SpaceX plans to conduct up to 456 launches and 912 landings per year at its Texas facility. Landings would take place after launch or at the end of a mission, when the Starship spacecraft and its Super Heavy booster would return intact to the base in an upright position for reuse.

Elon Musk has said several times that the company hopes to increase Starship’s launch frequency as much as possible in the future, and has claimed that in less than a decade, Starship will be able to launch more than once an hour. The company recently also announced plans to invest up to $100 billion to build a large launch facility in southern Louisiana to support frequent Starship launches.
$SPCX.US

170,000 traders liquidated! Cryptocurrencies surge across the board
The cryptocurrency market is seeing a fresh rally. On October 13, cryptocurrencies surged across the board, with Bitcoin climbing and briefly breaking above $84,000 per coin, up more than 2.8% at one point.

Data from CoinGlass shows that 170,300 traders were liquidated across the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations amounting to $815 million. Of that total, $689 million came from long positions and $126 million from short positions.

Strategy, the publicly traded company with the largest Bitcoin holdings in the world, disclosed on Monday that it bought more than $21 million worth of Bitcoin last week, bringing its total holdings to around $70 billion. In addition, asset manager Strive recently announced that it had bought 2,000 Bitcoins for $169 million, bringing its total holdings to around $2.4 billion. Cryptocurrency trading platform Robinhood has also joined the ranks of corporate buyers. As companies resume buying crypto assets, Bitcoin's rebound has also boosted expectations of further gains. Despite recent U.S. interest rate hikes and renewed tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has remained resilient. Citi recently raised its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing increased activity in the crypto market, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and a recovery in ETF inflows. The bank raised its Bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000 and its Ethereum target from $2,240 to $3,028. Analysts point out that Bitcoin's price is influenced by global risk appetite, the U.S. dollar's performance, and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields remain the most important variable: higher interest rates increase the appeal of dollar-denominated instruments and may limit inflows into riskier assets. Changes in energy markets are also a factor. Rising oil prices reinforce inflation risks and increase the likelihood that tight monetary conditions will be maintained, while falling energy prices could boost market interest in cryptocurrencies. Fundamentals remain mixed: although sentiment has improved in some areas, cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to dollar liquidity, meaning volatility is likely to remain elevated.
$BTC

$BNB
$ETH

📉 Crypto markets are closely watching the US September CPI inflation data due Wednesday! How will the Fed’s October rate-hike suspense affect BTC?

The US September CPI inflation data due Wednesday will be the “make-or-break” factor in determining whether the Fed raises rates at its October 27–28 policy meeting! After the Fed resumed rate hikes in September, macro liquidity has once again become the dominant factor driving the crypto market.

📌 Key data points to watch:

* Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month over month: If the figure meets expectations, the odds of the Fed holding rates steady in October will rise significantly, while bets on a hike will remain low (currently around 18%–20%).

* The warning threshold is 0.3%: If core CPI unexpectedly jumps to 0.3% month over month, rate-hike expectations could flare up instantly, and the Fed may press ahead with further monetary tightening in October!

💡 How this could affect crypto assets (BTC / ETH / BNB):
1️⃣ Macro liquidity and borrowing costs (bearish pressure)
* If CPI comes in significantly above expectations, markets will become even more convinced that the Fed will deliver “three rate hikes in total.” Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY) would directly squeeze funds from highly leveraged positions and risk assets, dampening risk appetite for BTC.

2️⃣ Sharp short-term volatility and liquidation risk (market speculation)
* At the moment Wednesday’s data is released: Even a deviation of just 0.1% from expectations could trigger sharp moves in both directions in the derivatives market, with highly leveraged positions getting “wicked.”
* Hot CPI: BTC could face short-term pressure to test key support levels below, such as the $82,500–$80,000 range.
* Soft CPI: Expectations of a rate pause would be reinforced, easing liquidity-tightening pressure and potentially opening a window for a rebound across the crypto market.

3️⃣ The longer-term tug-of-war between “inflation hedges” and “risk assets”
* Although BTC has the “digital gold” attribute of a fixed supply of 21 million coins, during a clear Fed tightening cycle, markets often treat it more as a “high-beta risk asset.” Until interest rates have definitively peaked and turned lower, the crypto market is likely to remain a zero-sum game, with too little new capital flowing in.

📍 Trading reminder: Ahead of Wednesday’s data release (8:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 p.m. Beijing time), consider limiting leverage on derivatives positions to avoid short-term volatility.

#FedRateHike #CPIData #加密市场流动性
$BTC

$BNB

🚀 Major Morgan Stanley report: SpaceX price target raised to $300! Could Starship’s 15th test flight usher in a new era of AI computing power and commerce?

Morgan Stanley chief analyst Adam Jonas has published a new research report, reiterating an “Overweight” rating on SpaceX (SPCX) and setting a price target of $300—84% upside from the current share price of $163.42!

📌 Key takeaways:

1️⃣ Starship’s 15th test flight is imminent: Tentatively scheduled for November 8, it may attempt to catch the returning Starship using “chopstick” arms. The 16th test flight could take place as early as December 10.

2️⃣ Starlink V3 deployment is accelerating significantly: A single Starship can carry up to 60 Starlink V3 satellites, each with 10 times the downlink capacity of a V2 Mini satellite! Full reusability will dramatically reduce launch costs.

3️⃣ The valuation upside lies in AI and orbital computing power: Of Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target, enterprise AI contributes $165 per share, while the connectivity business contributes $118. Starship’s greatest financial value may not come from launches alone, but from serving as a carrier for “orbital computing and AI infrastructure”!

💡 Morgan Stanley’s sum-of-the-parts valuation breakdown ($300 price target):

* 🤖 Enterprise AI business: $165 / share

* 📡 Connectivity business (Starlink): $118 / share

* 🚀 External commercial launches: $8 / share

* 🌐 X platform and consumer AI: $8 / share

The market currently values SpaceX’s AI business at only about $33 per share.

If its cloud infrastructure and orbital computing strategies are successfully realized, they could unlock a massive revaluation.

⚠️ Potential risks and technical challenges:

Engine failures remain a serious near-term challenge (multiple engine issues have occurred during test flights with the V3 configuration). Delays in hardware reuse could limit the launch cadence in 2027.

👇 Join the discussion:
Do you believe in the commercial potential of combining SpaceX’s space technology with orbital AI computing power? Would you add SpaceX stock to your portfolio? Share your thoughts in the comments!

#SpaceX #Starship #AICompute #Starlink

#币安交易所美股
$SPCX.US
$GOOGL.US
$AMZN.US

🔥 The world’s largest asset manager is changing course! BlackRock ends its six-year underweight position in US Treasuries. Are US stocks and the AI sector in for a shake-up? What impact will this have on the crypto market?

📌 Key portfolio shifts:
1️⃣ Short-term US Treasuries ➔ Upgraded to Overweight
2️⃣ Long-term US Treasuries ➔ Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
3️⃣ US stocks / MBS ➔ Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral

💡 What’s the underlying logic behind BlackRock’s move?

Reducing US stocks ≠ bearish on AI: The downgrade to US stocks is only intended to avoid short-term volatility in AI infrastructure. BlackRock remains bullish on AI and infrastructure over the long term, while waiting for a better “golden entry point.”

BlackRock, the giant asset manager, has significantly increased its allocation to short-term Treasuries and downgraded US stocks to Neutral. This sharp shift in a key macroeconomic bellwether is shaping the crypto market’s direction in three important ways:

📌 1. Short-term headwinds: The “magnet effect” of risk-free rates
Tight liquidity: The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken above 5.2%. Risk-free returns of 5%+ are a powerful draw for institutional capital, making investors more likely to stay on the sidelines in the near term.
Spillover volatility in the AI sector: BlackRock is steering clear of short-term volatility in AI infrastructure. If US tech stocks come under pressure, that could spill over to crypto AI tokens such as NEAR, FET, and RENDER.

📌 2. Medium-term tailwinds: A boom in on-chain RWAs and tokenized US Treasuries
RWA sector in the spotlight: As the driving force behind the tokenized fund BUIDL, BlackRock’s bullish view on short-term Treasuries could further strengthen the yield advantage of on-chain US Treasury RWAs.
DeFi offers a stable base yield: DeFi protocols and stablecoin issuers will accelerate the adoption of US Treasury yield products, allowing investors to earn a steady 5%+ yield on-chain without leaving crypto.

📌 3. Long-term outlook: The end of tightening takes shape, setting the stage for a liquidity turning point
Rate-hike expectations reset: BlackRock believes the market’s expectations for rate hikes have gone “too far.” Once rate-cut expectations are priced in again, falling risk-free rates could release a huge amount of capital back into higher-yielding risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
The long-term AI thesis remains intact: Institutions are only managing short-term risk. The long-term investment case for the AI sector remains strong, with another opportunity to build positions after a pullback.

💡 Strategy summary:
In the short term, guard against liquidity being drained from risk assets. In the medium term, watch the RWA sector and the repricing of DeFi yields. Over the long term, stick to a disciplined strategy of accumulating leading assets (BTC/ETH/BNB) on dips. #USShortTermTreasuries

🔥 Nvidia’s “pick-and-shovel” pivot! In talks to acquire “America’s DeepSeek,” Reflection AI

Nvidia is in talks with open-source AI startup Reflection AI about an acquisition or a deeper investment. A key asset in the U.S. open-source AI sector, Reflection AI is now valued at as much as $25 billion.

📌 Key points and deal details:

Flexible deal structure to avoid regulatory scrutiny: To avoid a lengthy antitrust review, Nvidia is considering an “acqui-hire” (hiring the core team and licensing its technology), or deepening the partnership through additional equity investment and computing power.

Strengthening its ecosystem and accelerating its expansion: After acquiring Hugging Face for $13 billion and forming a close partnership with Groq in a deal worth around $20 billion, Nvidia is stepping up its bets on the open-weight model ecosystem in an effort to address gaps in its foundation-model offerings.

A closed loop spanning AI hardware and infrastructure: Reflection AI’s recently released Beam model offers significant cost advantages, and the company has secured multi-billion-dollar computing-power partnerships with U.S. government agencies and cloud-computing giants including SpaceX and Nebius.

💡 Analysis:
> Nvidia is transforming from a mere “pick-and-shovel seller” of GPU chips into a dominant player that controls the upper-layer model ecosystem and the gateways to developer traffic. This deep “compute + models” loop not only reinforces its position among leading U.S. tech companies, but also provides further momentum for the long-term growth narrative around AI and Web3 decentralized computing.

We continue to invest
#币安交易所AI美股

#BinanceSquare
$NVDA.US

$SPCX.US
$GOOG.US

Warren Buffett’s rational rules for investing: Emotions are the greatest enemy. He repeatedly emphasizes that investment success doesn’t depend on exceptionally high intelligence, but on having the right framework of knowledge and the ability to keep it from being corrupted by emotions.
A classic statement is: “You don’t need a stratospheric IQ, extraordinary business insight, or inside information to invest successfully over a lifetime. What you need is a sound framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework. You must provide your own emotional discipline.”
At Berkshire’s annual meeting, he has also stated plainly that when making investment or business decisions, you should leave your emotions at the door. It’s fine to have emotions in life, but in investing, emotions are the enemy.
Core principles in practice
1. Treat the market as an “emotional partner” (Mr. Market)
A concept inherited from Benjamin Graham: The market quotes prices every day, sometimes in extreme optimism and sometimes in extreme pessimism. Rational investors should take advantage of its emotions rather than let themselves be led by them. Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
2. Temperament matters more than intelligence
Buffett says that someone with an IQ of 150 would be better off selling 30 points to someone else, because investing doesn’t require genius. What you need is the ability to think independently, be patient and disciplined, and neither follow the crowd nor deliberately go against it. People with high IQs but poor emotional control often perform worse in the market.
3. Circle of competence + margin of safety + long-term holding
• Invest only in businesses you truly understand.
• Buy at a price significantly below intrinsic value (a margin of safety).
• Once you’ve bought a high-quality business, hold it for as long as possible and let compounding work.
Short-term share-price fluctuations are just noise; what truly matters is a company’s long-term business performance.
4. The first and second rules are not to lose money
“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.” Essentially, this means minimizing the risk of permanent capital loss when making decisions, rather than chasing short-term windfalls.
These principles have been repeatedly validated in bull markets, bear markets, tech bubbles, and financial crises. Markets change, but human nature—fear and greed—hardly does. That’s why a rational framework is the real moat that helps you weather market cycles. Buffett’s “rational rules for investing” remain one of the most reliable guides for ordinary people to combat market noise and build long-term wealth.
$SPCX.US