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A 22% tax, postponed three times—and now South Korea’s crypto market may finally have to face it 🦖

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The South Korean government has scheduled a meeting for October 20, bringing together representatives from the country’s five major domestic exchanges and executives from industry associations to discuss an issue that’s been delayed for six years: Will the virtual asset income tax, originally set to take effect in January 2027, be postponed again?

The proposal is clear: income from selling or lending crypto will be taxed at 22%—including income tax and local tax—after deducting a basic tax-free allowance of 2.5 million won. That’s about $1,800. In other words, anyone who earns less than that in their account won’t have to pay tax for now.

The real issue isn’t the tax rate. It’s how the cost basis will be calculated.

The tax was proposed in 2020 and has already been postponed three times. The reasons have been much the same each time: exchanges say their systems aren’t ready, while investors say they have no transaction records for coins they bought over the counter years ago. If the cost basis can’t be established, the worst-case scenario is that it’s treated as zero—turning the 22% tax into a tax on the principal ⚠️

South Korea’s National Tax Service is expected to issue a notice in November. Financial regulators are still working on a government draft of the Digital Asset Basic Act, which is due to be completed and put forward for consultation by the end of this month. The timeline is firm, but the October 20 meeting itself leaves the door open to another delay.

On the same day, on the other side of the world, France’s National Assembly passed an amendment to tax stablecoin exchanges by a vote of 38 to 37. Each time you exchange cryptocurrency for a stablecoin, you’ll be subject to a 31.4% capital gains tax. It takes effect on January 1, 2027. Two countries, one tax rate of 22% and the other 31.4%—and both have set their effective dates for the same year 📉

My take: the tax rate is just the surface. Three things will really determine the market’s response: whether the tax-free allowance is high enough, whether cost-basis rules can be applied retroactively, and whether exchanges will have to withhold taxes on behalf of users. If the first two issues aren’t resolved, no matter how detailed the third rule is, it will only push trading off-exchange.

BTC is currently at $81,707 and ETH at $2,413. Retail investors have always made up a large share of South Korea’s crypto market. If withholding takes effect, exchange trading volumes will be the first to tell the story 📊

Do you think South Korea will really introduce the tax this time, or will it be postponed for a fourth time? Let’s talk in the comments.

Every day, I bring you the latest crypto stories—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 👀🚀

#circle上半年营收约14亿美元
$150 billion in a quarter is just a warm-up for stablecoins 🦖

📢 ⏰ 消息群里第一时间说

Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire and a16z’s Chris Dixon just had a conversation. The most striking thing wasn’t the valuation—it was that Circle minted and redeemed $150 billion in a single quarter. That pipeline is already connected to the global banking system.

First, let’s look at the scale of the business. Circle brought in about $1.4 billion in revenue in the first half of the year. Of that, $819 million went to partners and transaction costs, leaving just $473 million to reinvest. In other words, 58 cents of every dollar earned has to be paid out. Stablecoin issuance is no longer a money-printing machine—it’s a business that relies on scale to spread distribution costs.

So where’s the moat? Allaire pointed to three pillars: the utility and liquidity flywheel of the stablecoin network, regulated infrastructure, and CCTP interoperability. He said CCTP accounts for about half of cross-chain transfer value, reaching as high as 70% in recent quarters. Another part of the picture is the CPN payments network, which already has nearly 200 financial institutions on it.

More importantly, he shared his view of the future: the main users of this system will increasingly be machines, not people. Dixon said he used vibe coding to build a small app running on Arc. A week after launch, it was getting 15,000 visits a day, all from bots looking for environment variables, SSH credentials, and cryptocurrency. In his words: “The machines are already here” ⚠️

My take is that stablecoin competition has shifted from issuance volume to settlement rails and distribution. Whoever can get assets flowing through their own pipes gets the fees. Machine payments will make this market even bigger, because machines don’t care about brands—they care about cost and success rates. But the other side is clear, too: Arc’s validators are known and elected. That’s a compromise made for compliance. Between efficiency and decentralization, it has chosen the former 📈

One more thing: the conversation also mentioned that someone converted neural data from a real fly’s brain into about 16 MB of bytecode and ran it on Arc. It sounds like a joke, but it shows that people are already experimenting with completely different things on-chain—and nobody knows where the limits are.

What do you think: five years from now, will most on-chain transactions be initiated by people or by machines? Let’s talk in the comments 👀

Every day, I bring you the latest on stablecoins and AI—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 👀🚀

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$630 million, 7 million shares, one thing only: buying Bitcoin 🦖
U.S.-listed Bitcoin treasury company Strive priced its SATS preferred stock IPO at $90 per share, targeting about $630 million in proceeds—exactly 7 million shares. All the money raised will go toward buying more Bitcoin.

🚨 行情变了群里说

It already holds 35,595 Bitcoins, worth about $2.9 billion at $81,500 each. If the offering is fully subscribed, it could add another 7,700 or so, bringing its holdings to around 43,300.
Don’t rush to take this as good news. This time, it’s not common stock but preferred stock. Preferred shares usually pay a fixed dividend and rank ahead of common shares in a liquidation. The upside is less dilution for existing shareholders; the trade-off is an additional bill the company has to pay every year. 💥
In other words, this isn’t free money. It’s trading future fixed expenses for Bitcoin today. If Bitcoin rises, leverage magnifies the gains. If Bitcoin moves sideways, the dividends still have to be paid—and time becomes a cost.
What’s more, the broader environment is full of contradictions. On Friday, Bitcoin treasury companies of the same kind came under pressure across U.S. markets. Strategy fell 9% in a single day, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.5% for the week, Brent crude touched $110 for the first time since May, and U.S. PPI rose 6.3% year over year. Money is moving out of high-volatility assets. 📉
On one hand, share prices are taking a hit; on the other, fundraising is accelerating. This suggests these companies can no longer rely on operating cash flow to buy coins. They can only keep issuing new instruments to acquire more. Whoever can secure cheap financing while interest rates remain high can stay in the game.
One more detail: a Wall Street analyst raised the company’s price target by 27%. The share price is falling while the target price is rising. Institutions aren’t looking at this quarter—they’re asking whether the company can keep raising money. ⚠️
My view: the lifeline for these companies isn’t the amount of Bitcoin they hold, but the cost of financing. As long as they can keep issuing preferred shares, the accumulation game can continue. But if demand for new issues dries up, or Bitcoin falls below their average cost, leverage will turn from an accelerator into a drag.
Do you think this preferred-stock-for-Bitcoin model is fuel for the next bull run, or a fuse for the next liquidation? Let’s talk in the comments.
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#以太坊跌破2400usdt
2,955 new ETH minted in a day, with just 13.6 burned—the deflationary badge is down to 0.46% 🦖
Ethereum hit an intraday low of $2,397.77 on Saturday, once again falling below the $2,400 mark. It’s now at $2,400.10, down 0.82% over 24 hours. But the on-chain numbers are even more striking than the price.

⚡ 有大动静群里说

Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum’s supply grew by a net 2,955 ETH, while just 13.59 ETH was burned. That’s only 0.46% of the amount newly issued. Seven days ago, the ratio was still 1.03%; over a 30-day period, it was 2.77%. Each successive timeframe shows a lower figure 🔥
The cause isn’t on the issuance side, but on the burn side. Network-wide fees over the past 24 hours came to just $213,200, down from $466,000 the day before—a 54.37% drop in a single day. The weekly high on October 13 was $467,300. Now, only a fraction of that remains.
Why aren’t fees picking up? Because activity has moved to Layer 2 networks. Data blocks show that Layer 2 users pay far less than they would for regular transactions on mainnet. Mainnet blocks aren’t full, so base fees are scraping the floor—and naturally, very little is being burned.
Taking a longer view, the circulating supply rose from 122,051,481 ETH to 122,137,960 ETH over 30 days, a net increase of 86,479 ETH, worth about $215 million at the current price. The net increase over seven days was 20,611 ETH. Around 2,969 new ETH are issued each day, worth about $7.18 million.
The historical comparison is even more striking. Since Ethereum switched to proof of stake in September 2022, the network has burned 2,017,726 ETH, yet the circulating supply has increased by 1,616,921 ETH over the same period. Since EIP-1559 went live, a cumulative 4,641,036 ETH has been burned, worth about $13.11 billion at the current price. The mechanism that once underpinned the “ultrasound money” narrative is now almost at a standstill 📉
My take: supply is certainly a headwind, but it hasn’t reached a point where it can reverse the trend downward. 2,969 ETH issued per day against a supply of 122 million amounts to daily growth of about 0.0024%. The real variable is whether mainnet fees can recover. As long as Layer 2 keeps absorbing activity, the burn rate is unlikely to pick up.
For price levels, the first support to watch is Saturday’s low of $2,397.77. The first resistance above is the weekly high of $2,534.63 on October 12, followed by the 50-day moving average at $2,551.85. If ETH can’t break above those levels, it will remain below the two-month moving average. The monthly high is $2,775.17, still 14.8% above the current price.
Do you think supply is weighing on Ethereum this time, or could a recovery in fees bring the deflationary story back? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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From $700 million to $4.3 billion in just one year—this public blockchain has made a serious catch-up in real-world assets 🦖

🕐 最新解读群里更新

According to the latest figures from AMBCrypto, the market cap of RWAs on Solana has risen from around $700 million a year ago to $4.3 billion. Over the same period, Ethereum grew from $15.5 billion to $16.6 billion, an increase of only about 7%. Solana is now 26% the size of Ethereum, but its growth rate is on a completely different scale.

The more compelling numbers are on the application side. Solana app revenue rose about 48% quarter over quarter to $299.1 million, its highest level since Q3 2025. In the same quarter, the value of tokenized stocks hit a record $7.1 billion, with a record $4.4 billion in September alone. Spot DEX trading volume reached around $189 billion, up $7 billion from the previous quarter. On-chain transactions hit a record 14.2 billion, averaging about 1,790 per second.

But let me pour a little cold water on this: a large share of that $299.1 million came from consumer apps and trading activity. Put simply, it’s closely tied to market sentiment and speculative fervor. When the market cools, this revenue can fall too—it’s not the kind of stable cash flow backed by long-term contracts.

The price hasn’t caught up either. When the news came out, SOL was still struggling near the upper end of the $95–$100 demand zone, after recently breaking below a bearish pennant. If this range doesn’t hold, there could be room for further downside. On the other hand, as long as the 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain below the price, the long-term structure is still intact.

My take: the story around this chain has shifted from being cheap and fast to having real business activity. Asset tokenization, app revenue, and DEX trading volume are all rising at the same time—that’s uncommon among public blockchains. But the speculative tilt in its revenue mix also means its valuation can swing sharply with risk appetite. The key thing to watch is next quarter: if the market cools, can app revenue stay above the $200 million mark?

Do you think Solana’s ecosystem has genuinely grown stronger, or has it simply benefited from a rebound in risk appetite? Let’s discuss in the comments 👀

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702 cases, 31 deaths: Bitcoin’s strongest line of defense was pried open with a wrench 🦖

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On October 16, Bitcoin security researcher Jameson Lopp revealed that his database of physical attacks had doubled from over 300 cases to 702. Behind the increase was a researcher called Pizza Bitcoiner, who used AI-assisted searches to uncover 375 overlooked cases, around 351 of which have already been added to the database.

This isn’t about hackers breaking the encryption algorithm. It’s about people with weapons coming after Bitcoin holders. The database has tracked cases from 2014 through today, including home invasions, robberies, kidnappings, and extortion.

The details are what really send a chill down your spine. Among the 670 verified cases, 413 victims were held against their will, 300 involved injuries, and 31 ended in death. The 447 cases with recorded amounts add up to around $394 million in losses. The cases span 72 countries and cover the period from January 2020 to mid-October this year.

Now look at the trend: there were 37 cases in all of 2020. By 2025, that number had risen to 165. Another 134 cases were recorded by mid-October this year. That’s more than a fourfold increase in just over five years. France has become a clear hotspot, and the US has also seen a large number of cases ⚠️

But there’s an important caveat: a sharp rise in the numbers doesn’t mean crime suddenly quadrupled. Lopp himself acknowledges that search capabilities have improved and language coverage has expanded, bringing many old cases to light for the first time. In other words, the number of attacks that actually happen may have always been higher than the public record suggests.

My take: this shatters an illusion. People tend to think Bitcoin’s risks are on-chain, at exchanges, or in the markets. But the oldest risk has always been off-chain. Your private key can be as long as you like; it won’t stop someone standing at your front door. Institutions have custodians, insurance, and security. Ordinary people have only themselves. So don’t publicly flaunt your holdings, avoid large in-person cash transactions, use multisig and diversify for significant assets, and don’t link your travel plans or home address to your wallet 🐋

Crypto can protect your assets, but it can’t protect you. A lot of people still haven’t grasped that distinction.

What do you think is the biggest risk for Bitcoin holders: market volatility or personal safety? Let’s talk in the comments 👀

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$600 million quietly pulled out, but nobody panicked over Bitcoin ETFs

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Over the first five trading days of October, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $228.6 million. Outflows for October so far total about $615 million, with some estimates putting the figure close to $618 million.

BlackRock’s IBIT saw the fastest withdrawals, with about $165 million in net outflows in a week. On October 16 alone, $71.8 million was pulled out. Fidelity’s FBTC also saw $10.6 million leave that day. All told, IBIT accounted for more than 70% of this week’s outflows.

The real eye-opener was October 7, when net outflows hit $487.1 million in a single day 💥 That one day accounted for most of the month’s outflows.

That’s no small sum, but in a market worth more than a trillion dollars, it’s hardly a serious blow. Look at the other side of the ledger: these funds still hold $104.29 billion in total assets. This month’s outflows amount to less than 1% of that. Since their launch in January 2024, they’ve seen cumulative net inflows of about $56.88 billion and still hold around 1.276 million bitcoins—roughly 6% of the total supply.

Trading volume hasn’t collapsed either. There were several days in October when daily trading volume topped $2 billion. People are still in the market; it’s just the direction of the money that’s changed.

My take: this doesn’t look like institutions rushing for the exits. It looks more like profit-taking at elevated levels. Redemptions aren’t just numbers on a screen: issuers either have to sell Bitcoin or use cash, and the impact eventually shows up in the spot market. That’s why ETF flows often speak sooner than the price itself. So the key thing to watch isn’t the $600 million headline figure, but whether IBIT’s redemptions are slowing down or speeding up—and whether we’ll see another day of nearly $500 million in selling pressure like October 7 🦖

ETFs are the main gateway for institutions entering the market. When that gateway’s valve turns, prices often take a few days to respond. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $81,000, while Ethereum is fluctuating around $2,400. The message from the flow data is just one word: hesitation 📉

Do you think institutions are rebalancing, or is the market about to turn? Let’s talk in the comments 👀

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38 to 37: France passes it by one vote. From now on, swapping crypto for stablecoins will also incur a 31.4% tax 🦖

💡 群里更新数据解读

On October 17, France’s National Assembly passed amendment I-3898 during debate on the 2027 Finance Bill. The amendment was proposed by MP Nicolas Sansu. Of the Assembly’s 577 seats, only 100 members voted: 38 in favor, 37 against, and 25 abstentions. It was just one vote away from going the other way.

The amendment aims to close a loophole that has existed for years. Until now, swapping Bitcoin for stablecoins hasn’t counted as cashing out, so it hasn’t been subject to capital gains tax. Many French crypto holders have used USDT and USDC to park their profits, then swapped back into euros when the time was right. The rules are now set to change: every swap from crypto into stablecoins will be taxed at a capital gains rate of 31.4%. If the text passes unchanged, it will take effect on January 1, 2027 ⚖️

The French government’s reasoning is straightforward: stablecoins already serve as a means of payment and a store of value, so they should be taxed like money. The amendment also stresses that it would not create any new burden. What really stings is another set of figures: blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis estimates that 90% of crypto gains in France go undeclared. In 2024, just 24,000 French taxpayers declared approximately $427 million in gains. Compared with the size of the overall market, that reporting rate is practically zero 💶

In my view, the key issue isn’t the 31.4% rate. It’s that France is treating stablecoins as money rather than crypto assets for the first time. Once they’re taxed under the rules for money, every time you park your profits becomes a taxable event. The old strategy of moving into stablecoins during a bear market and cashing out again in a bull market is about to get a lot more expensive.

The second-order effects are more interesting than the tax rate itself. French crypto holders will most likely head in three directions: first, commodity-backed digital assets such as tokenized gold; second, self-custody and cross-border transfers; and third, simply converting back to fiat early and taking profits. For stablecoin issuers, retail demand in the eurozone’s second-largest economy will come under pressure. And with on-chain records, combined with the automatic information exchange under DAC8 and CARF, enforcing this tax will be much easier than many people think.

Of course, this isn’t the final word. The Senate will decide next Tuesday whether to advance the amendment. The government itself opposes it and could also remove the provision outright. The 38-to-37 vote shows that it doesn’t even have consensus in Parliament. There’s still plenty of debate ahead.

Do you think France is closing a loophole, or driving crypto users away? If you were there, would you convert back into euros early, or switch to tokenized gold? Let’s talk in the comments.

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#美国ppi同比升至6.3%
$4.75 billion pulled out of global tech funds in one week, yet the Fed pointed the finger at AI itself 🦖
At the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on October 16, Fed Chair Warsh called the capital pouring into AI infrastructure an economic shock

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He said this wave of investment could push inflation higher in the short term, but he wouldn’t say a word about whether rates would move at the October 28 policy meeting

First, look at how it works: data centers, high-performance chips, power grids, and communications systems are all being built at once, competing for the same equipment, the same skilled workers, and the same electricity.
When supply can’t keep up, prices rise. Reuters reported that this is already affecting discussions about current and future monetary policy.
There’s another side to the story in the long run: automation and productivity gains could eventually lower production costs. But for now, central banks have to deal with the immediate pressure.

This isn’t an isolated view. The European Central Bank and other major central banks are watching the same trend.
More importantly, there’s an indicator called R-star—the neutral interest rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy.
If AI investment pushes up demand for capital across the economy, the neutral rate will rise, structurally narrowing the Fed’s room to cut rates in the future.

Markets have already started voting with their feet.
This week, U.S. PPI rose to 6.3% year over year. Brent crude hit $110 for the first time since May, and the 10-year Treasury yield stood above 5.1%.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% for the week, its biggest weekly drop in 18 months.
Credit default swap spreads for AI computing company CoreWeave widened sharply, while global tech funds saw $4.75 billion in outflows in one week.
Taken together, these numbers tell the same story: financing costs are repricing the AI trade ⚠️

Crypto, by contrast, looks relatively calm.
Bitcoin: $81,432, up 0.52% in 24 hours. Ethereum: $2,413.86, up 0.52%. SOL: $103.81, up 1.01%.
But don’t mistake calm for safety. With expectations of high interest rates, crypto isn’t a safe-haven asset—it’s a high-beta asset 🏦
The real dividing line isn’t whether AI will boost productivity. It’s whether AI capital spending can keep going on borrowed money.
If financing tightens first, the expansion of computing capacity will hit the brakes on its own, and inflationary pressure could ease sooner than the Fed expects.

My take: the market is still stuck in the old framework that AI equals disinflation, while the Fed has shifted to a new framework that sees it as a demand shock.
That gap in understanding is worth watching more closely than any single rate decision 💥
Do you think AI will ultimately bring inflation down or push it up? Let’s talk in the comments.
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21.6 trillion BTT tokens sent into a black hole, in exchange for just $7.6 million 🕳️
BitTorrent completed its first buyback and burn on October 16, sending 21.6 trillion BTT tokens to a black hole address, worth about $7.6 million according to the announcement.

📢 ⏰ 消息群里第一时间说

The money didn’t come from fundraising. It was all the revenue from decentralized business in the third quarter of 2026—not a penny was held back.
On July 6, the team announced that it would use 100% of the revenue from its decentralized business for buybacks and burns every quarter. This is the first time it has actually followed through, and the on-chain records are public.
Even more interesting was what happened the next day. On October 17, BitTorrent released a new white paper, reframing the brand from its old P2P file-transfer roots as a three-part Web3 and AI infrastructure stack: the mainnet handles content distribution, BTTInferGrid provides decentralized GPU inference computing power, BTTC handles cross-chain and Layer 2 settlement, and BTT connects payments, staking, and governance across all these use cases.
Put simply, this is a classic narrative upgrade. The market used to see BTT as an old token in the TRON ecosystem. Now it’s pitching a new story about AI computing power and buybacks funded by real revenue. 🦖
The buyback is real, and the $7.6 million is real money. But relative to today’s market size, that’s not a huge figure. It’s unrealistic to expect it to support the price on its own. The real thing to watch is the mechanism: the buyback is funded by business revenue, not external financing. This kind of deflation is harder to fake than a buyback announced just to pump the price.
There are two things to watch next. First, can the buyback amount keep growing quarter after quarter? Second, will BTTInferGrid secure real computing-power orders and generate revenue? So far, the white paper lays out the architecture but provides no customer numbers or revenue breakdown. That’s the biggest gap between the narrative and actual performance. 🔥
The price has already moved. As of October 15, BTT was up about 30.3% over the past three months. The market has clearly priced in expectations early; now it’s a question of whether the business data can live up to them. 📈
Do you think this 100%-of-revenue buyback is genuine deflation or just a new narrative in disguise? Let’s talk in the comments.
Follow along every day for the latest Web3 infrastructure trends. I don’t just tell you what’s happening in the news—I help you understand the logic and opportunities behind it. 👀🚀
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A cross-border transfer cut to 2 minutes—but three Wall Street giants all say the business is still very small

🚨 行情变了群里说

On this week’s U.S. banks’ third-quarter earnings calls, executives from Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley all weighed in on tokenization. Goldman CEO David Solomon compared it to electronic trading replacing human-run trading desks 50 years ago. Wells Fargo CFO Mike Santomassimo was more direct: tokenized deposits are already in production, with cross-border transfers arriving in under two minutes. But not one of the three banks shared revenue figures. That’s the part worth thinking about most 🦖

First, the facts. Goldman launched its own tokenization platform, GS DAP, back in 2022. In July this year, it also took part in a half-day tokenized trading test run by the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a clearinghouse that processes transaction volumes worth quadrillions of dollars a year. Solomon acknowledged that the business is currently very small—only a marginal part of the business. Wells Fargo’s tokenized deposits are genuinely in operation, but volumes are also very small. Without an extensive overseas branch network, the bank hopes to use tokenized deposits to compete for cross-border payments. Morgan Stanley’s take is more interesting: the faster and easier assets can move, the more clients need financial advice 📈

Here’s what that means: the three big banks aren’t here to disrupt themselves. They’re redefining tokenization. Wall Street once saw on-chain assets as a threat; now it sees them as new products, new customers, and new distribution channels. Goldman’s example of electronic trading from 50 years ago makes the point: back then, no one believed computers would replace trading desks. In the end, though, the trading business grew. But we should also be clear about the other side: none of the banks shared revenue figures. That suggests this is still an investment phase, not a harvest. For on-chain native projects, the real competition isn’t the technology—it’s the compliant customer base and clearing channels these banks already have 💥

More important still is the pace. Wells Fargo’s two-minute cross-border payments are already live. Morgan Stanley is focused on wealth management; Goldman is focused on trading. The fact that all three paths are moving forward at once suggests tokenization is shifting from pilot projects to infrastructure. Once clearing and custody are running smoothly, putting assets on-chain will no longer be just a concept—it’ll be the default option ⚖️

What do you think this wave of tokenization means: will Wall Street absorb the on-chain world, or will the on-chain world transform Wall Street? Let’s talk in the comments.

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6.4 Million Bitcoin Publicly Called Out—About $525 Billion Is Within Quantum Computers’ Reach 🦖

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Nine crypto companies formed a quantum alliance this week. The figures they cited: the public keys of about 6.4 million bitcoin have been exposed, roughly 30% of the total supply. At $82,000 per coin, that’s nearly $525 billion. Around 1.1 million of those coins are attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto 💥

Let’s be clear: no one can steal these coins today, and no machine can do it. The alliance itself admits as much. What’s really keeping them up at night is the timeline.

A report modeled with contributions from two member companies marks March 2028 as an early window. New research from Google Quantum AI has pushed the number of qubits needed to break Bitcoin’s signatures below 500,000, while the Willow chip reduced errors in quantum-state preparation by about 40 times ⚠️

Put simply, this isn’t a price issue—it’s an ownership issue. Once elliptic-curve signatures can be reverse-engineered, wallets with exposed public keys are like having their private keys written on the door. Stablecoin minting permissions, cross-chain bridges, oracles, and governance contracts all rely on the same cryptography. Crack one key, and the effects could ripple across several platforms.

What the alliance wants to do is pretty straightforward: define what “quantum-ready” means and how to verify it. Right now, any blockchain can claim to be quantum-resistant, but no one can say exactly what that claim covers or what evidence is required. Following the model of the Internet Engineering Task Force, they’ve split into four working groups: migration, post-quantum zero-knowledge, wallet security, and cross-chain compatibility. Proposals will be judged only on public evidence and working implementations.

But the hardest part has never been the technology. It’s who gets to decide what happens to those 6.4 million coins. Freeze them, or let the holders migrate them themselves? Freezing them means trading ownership precedent for security. Not freezing them means leaving the risk with the people least likely to check their wallets. One custodian executive put it bluntly: “No one is responsible for this.” That’s the problem. Custodians protect client assets, not abandoned assets. Even within the alliance, there’s no agreement on freezing them ⚖️

My take: the quantum threat won’t show up in prices in the short term, but it will show up in the narrative first. Whoever turns post-quantum migration into a verifiable standard first will earn a vote of confidence from institutional investors in the next funding cycle. People are already placing bets: a consortium backed by BlackRock, Strategy, and a certain exchange has put up $15 million. A certain exchange is also urging developers to start migrating immediately, saying the process could take years. The real time cost isn’t the moment the code is cracked—it’s the decision everyone has to agree on at the same time.

Do you think those 6.4 million bitcoin should be frozen, or should the market work it out on its own? Let’s talk in the comments 👀

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New buyers quietly scoop up 570,000 Bitcoin at an average cost of $75,000—now sitting on $3.7 billion in unrealized gains

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An exchange’s on-chain research team revealed on X that new buyers have accumulated around 570,000 Bitcoin since the end of July, at an average cost of about $75,000. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs have been selling, with net outflows of $82.3893 million yesterday alone. 🐋

What does this mean? At the current price of $81,500, this stash is worth around $46.4 billion. Against a cost basis of $42.7 billion, that’s roughly $3.7 billion in unrealized gains—a return of 8.6%. It may not sound like much, but we’re talking about 570,000 Bitcoin, or 2.86% of the circulating supply. 🦖

More importantly, consider the cost basis. $75,000 isn’t just some random number. The report says that every pullback since August has held above this cost zone. In other words, these new buyers haven’t been shaken out—instead, they’ve kept buying the dip. Coins are moving from ETFs and short-term investors into a new group of wallets with a highly concentrated cost basis.

This isn’t retail traders placing orders on an exchange. These are actual spot coins withdrawn on-chain. The report didn’t name the buyers, but the timing lines up perfectly with the ongoing outflows from ETFs. On one side, institutional products are seeing redemptions; on the other, new wallets are accumulating on dips. The two groups are taking completely opposite views of the same market.

But there’s another side to this: the more concentrated the cost basis, the more fragile the support. The current price is only 8.6% above their average cost. If Bitcoin falls below $75,000, those 570,000 coins go from unrealized gains to losses—and from support to potential selling pressure. And unlike ETFs, these holders don’t have a creation-and-redemption mechanism, so they could move faster. ⚠️

My take: $75,000 has become more than just a price level—it’s a dividing line in the market structure. Above it, $46.4 billion worth of newly acquired coins are holding the line. Below it, the same level could trigger a cascade of stop-losses. Bitcoin is now at $81,500, just one step away from that line. The key thing to watch next isn’t whether it can break $82,000, but whether $75,000 holds during a pullback. 📉

Let’s discuss in the comments: do you think these new buyers are smart money, or bagholders waiting to get caught out in the next round?

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1.378 billion ADA sitting in the treasury, but only 42.6 million left to spend. Nobody can touch the ten-plus billion in between 🦖

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The spending cap for this Cardano budget cycle is 500 million ADA. As of October 17, 30 funding proposals have been approved, totaling 457.39 million ADA, or 91.5% of the cap.

That leaves 42.604 million ADA, worth about $9.5 million at the current price of $0.22. This amount has to last until the end of June 2027 📉

First, let's clarify how the mechanism works. The cap is called the Net Change Limit. It governs the total amount approved for spending during a cycle, not the treasury balance. This cycle began on February 13, 2026, and covers epochs 613 through 713, with each epoch lasting five days. The previous cycle's cap was 350 million ADA, so this one is about 43% higher. It's not a protocol upgrade, but an InfoAction with no technical effect, which received support representing 62.35% of staked ADA in epoch 647.

Where has the money gone? Four grants alone account for over half: 120 million ADA for AlphaGrowth's Cardano PRIME program, 62.1 million ADA for a maintenance project by Input Output and Ensurable Systems, 50 million ADA for a joint fund with Draper Dragon, and 32.9 million ADA for Cardano Vision 2026.

The other side is even more telling. This year, 29 proposals totaling 230.73 million ADA expired without getting enough votes. The most recent was for 11.787 million ADA to bring OpenZeppelin to Cardano for security work; it expired in epoch 661. Other proposals included 20 million ADA for Builder DAO, 39.8 million ADA for Tweag infrastructure, and several attempts to fund Cardano Summit 2026. None passed ⚠️

There is now just one proposal up for a vote: 22 million ADA, or about $4.9 million, for US company Toto Finance to buy COMEX Grade 1 copper cathodes, store them in a US warehouse, and mint CuTT tokens, each representing one pound of copper. The copper will be held for 18 to 24 months, and the proceeds from sales, along with any unspent funds, will be returned to the treasury within 36 months.

Breaking it down: 14.7244 million ADA for copper purchases (66.93%), 2.64 million ADA for technology and project management, 3.5339 million ADA for external operations and auditing, 441,700 ADA for execution, and 660,000 ADA for independent oversight. The proposal says it will prioritize hiring a US member firm of PwC for independent oversight, but no contract has been signed yet.

If this proposal passes, just 20.604 million ADA will remain under the cap. So the significance of this vote isn't the $4.9 million; it's that it would cut the remaining headroom in half. Voting closes at the start of epoch 668, which, at the current pace, is November 15. A decision could come at any epoch boundary before then; the next one is October 21 🧾

My take: the treasury holds about 1.378 billion ADA, up from 1.337 billion ADA in epoch 650. That shows the protocol itself isn't short of funds; what's scarce is the authorization to spend during this cycle. This design turns governance into budget politics: large grants lock up the available headroom, while small teams have to wait for the next cycle. And the 29 failed proposals show that DReps are already tapping the brakes.

The copper proposal is even more interesting. A public-chain treasury is starting to buy physical commodities, shifting the narrative from funding development to experimenting with assets. If it makes money, the treasury gets the proceeds; if it loses money, the treasury takes the hit. Using governance funds to experiment with RWAs means the risks and rewards aren't evenly balanced.

Do you think the treasury should spend 22 million ADA on copper? Let me know in the comments.

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133 accounts, RMB 500 million, an average of about RMB 3.76 million passing through each account—and the man was hiding in a Bangkok mansion 🦖

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Thai immigration police recently detained a 37-year-old Chinese man at a mansion in Bangkok. He was wanted by Chinese police on suspicion of involvement in a transnational criminal network and handling cross-border funds. The total transaction volume exceeded RMB 500 million, or nearly THB 2.5 billion ⚖️

He wasn’t using the money to trade crypto. Instead, he turned cryptocurrency and foreign exchange into a channel for moving funds. Police say he used more than 133 accounts to handle crypto assets and currency exchanges for the group, and also helped members of the network obtain visas. To avoid being found, he forged proof-of-residence documents, frequently changed his license plates, and even altered the appearance of his vehicle.

The figure of 133 accounts is more telling than the RMB 500 million. Divide 500 million by 133, and about RMB 3.76 million passed through each account on average. This wasn’t one person’s wallet—it was an entire matrix of accounts. Behind every account, there was likely someone willing to lend out their identity. The accounts belonged to others, but he was the one operating them. The money changed form as soon as it passed through 💥

My take is straightforward: cases like this aren’t about crypto itself, but the settlement layer. Here, cryptocurrency served one purpose: moving money across borders in minutes, then converting it back into local currency through foreign exchange. On-chain transfers leave a trail, but once funds enter centralized platforms and over-the-counter currency exchanges, that trail starts to break. So in the end, the case was cracked not through blockchain analysis, but because the suspect was physically in Bangkok.

For ordinary users, the real risk isn’t market volatility—it’s your account. Lending someone your bank card, collecting or sending money on someone else’s behalf, or exchanging currency for a friend may seem like small favors. From a law enforcement perspective, though, you could be one link in the chain. This time it was 133 accounts. Next time, it could be yours ⚠️

Thailand will first deal with his visa overstay, then coordinate his deportation. The investigation isn’t over; it will likely lead to the people who provided the accounts and the over-the-counter currency exchangers.

What do you think about using cryptocurrency and over-the-counter currency exchange as infrastructure for this kind of operation? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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HK$14 million, 21 people reported it, 4 arrested: a scheme passing off OTC shares as digital assets 🦖

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The Commercial Crime Bureau of the Hong Kong Police is investigating a company called BBB Group, whose Chinese name is 好好好集团 (Good Good Good Group). It claims to invest in the agarwood industry in Malaysia, while selling OTC shares and digital assets. It also promised to convert investors’ OTC shares into cryptocurrency by February 2027 at the latest.

As of today, 21 investors have reported the case, involving a total of HK$14 million—an average of about HK$667,000 per person. Police have opened a case on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud, and 4 people have been arrested.

What we should really be wary of isn’t agarwood, but the sales pitch: first, they sell you an invisible, intangible plantation; then they give you a certificate for OTC shares; finally, they say it will all be converted into digital assets in the future, pushing the payout date months down the line. There’s no on-chain address, no custodian, and no redemption terms anywhere in the process—just a timeline.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission’s website has already listed four products as suspicious investments: Malaysia Agarwood Plantation Investment, Agarwood Tree Scheme, Agarwood Potted Trees, and APT4. This means regulators had publicly warned people about the risks before the police made any arrests. Many people simply didn’t check.

My take is that we’ll see more cases like this, as the tokenization narrative gains momentum. Genuine tokenized securities have a contract address, a licensed custodian, and a clear redemption process. Fakes have only a story and a date. The test is simple: ask them to show you the on-chain contract and custody arrangements on the spot. If they can’t, they don’t have them.

HK$14 million, 21 families, 4 people—behind these figures is a very old scam in a new disguise ⚠️

Has anyone around you been persuaded by claims about converting OTC shares into digital assets? Share your thoughts in the comments 📉

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#纳指100本周跌5.5%创18个月最大周跌幅
Nasdaq Falls 5.5% in a Week, Its Worst Drop in 18 Months—Yet He Said It Was Poised to Take Off the Same Day 🦖
Tom Lee, chairman of crypto treasury company BitMine, said on CNBC on the 16th that cryptocurrencies, chip stocks, and neocloud companies had all corrected to support levels. As long as fundamentals remain stable, he said, the risk-reward profile is quite attractive.

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He didn’t say how much they might rise. But by discussing all three sectors together, his meaning was clear: fear has pushed their prices down to similar levels.

Risk assets really took a beating this week. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% for the week, its biggest weekly drop since April 2025. Brent crude hit $110 for the first time since May, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed back above 5.12%, and U.S. PPI rose to 6.3% year over year.
Three forces are moving together: oil prices drive inflation, inflation holds back rate cuts, and interest rates weigh on valuations. 📉

Crypto hasn’t been spared. Bitcoin was at $81,587, down 0.43% over 24 hours; Ethereum was at $2,435, down 0.51%; and SOL was at $104.94, down 1.35%.
The flows tell an even clearer story: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $82.3893 million yesterday, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading the way at $10.609 million in net outflows. ⚠️

Put simply, Tom Lee’s argument isn’t that he’s bullish—it’s about the odds. When fundamentals haven’t deteriorated but sentiment has pushed prices down to support levels, the downside and upside are no longer balanced.
But there’s a catch: fundamentals have to remain stable. And right now, that’s precisely what’s most uncertain. Oil at $110 and PPI at 6.3% mean the Fed still has room to tighten policy again. A 10-year yield of 5.12% continues to put pressure on high-valuation assets.

So support isn’t a floor. It’s simply a point where the odds look better. To see a real turning point, watch for two things: whether oil prices can retreat from $110, and whether ETF flows can turn positive after net outflows.
Until then, any talk of an imminent takeoff could amount to just a rebound—not a reversal.

Do you think this is the start of a rebound, or just another leg down? Let’s talk in the comments.
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Europe has suddenly made its position clear: the digital euro isn’t a pilot project—it’s meant to stand alongside cash 🦖

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At the IMF’s annual meeting on October 17, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that eurozone inflation was 3.8% in September, driven mainly by energy prices. The energy shock could keep inflation above target through the first half of 2027. In the same speech, she outlined another track: the digital euro is in the works to complement cash and support everyday payments.

The timing matters. On September 21, the ECB launched Pontes, enabling institutions to settle tokenized assets using central bank money—a direct answer to private stablecoins. Full deployment is scheduled for 2028.

On one side is wholesale finance: settling tokenized bonds and funds with central bank money. On the other is retail: using the digital euro for everyday payments. By covering both ends, the eurozone is aiming for more than just another currency. It wants to keep the foundations of payments and settlement in its own hands ⚖️

That’s the exact opposite of the US approach. The US is letting dollar stablecoins expand globally, while Europe is regulating stablecoins first. On October 15, the European Banking Authority designated Circle’s USDC as the EU’s first significant e-money token. It will come under the new regulatory framework from November 12. First, Europe is building the framework; then it will roll out its own alternative.

For ordinary holders, the most immediate impact is that there will be less room for euro stablecoins. Under the current design, the digital euro will pay no interest and have a holding limit. It’s not intended for speculation; it’s targeting payment use cases, not investment demand. So don’t expect it to trigger a crypto price rally 📉

What’s really worth watching is the spillover effect. If Europe gets wholesale settlement working, will other central banks follow suit? Once more sovereign funds move onto their own networks, private stablecoins’ share of cross-border settlement could gradually be eaten away. This won’t happen overnight—it’s a structural shift that will play out over five years.

The market’s attention is elsewhere for now: Bitcoin at $81,619, down a slight 0.6% over 24 hours; Ethereum at $2,433; and the odds of an October rate hike have fallen to around 15%. Risk appetite is recovering, but this quiet battle over payment infrastructure isn’t about crypto prices. It’s about who gets to collect transaction fees in the next cycle.

My take: in the short term, the digital euro is neither bullish nor bearish. It’s a signal that sovereign currencies are starting to take on-chain settlement seriously. The era of high-margin stablecoins will gradually be squeezed, but the overall market for on-chain assets will grow. Both things can happen at once 😅

What do you think? Once central bank digital currencies become widespread, will stablecoins be pushed to the margins—or will they become a complement to central bank systems? Let’s talk in the comments.

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$388 million stolen. Three weeks later, this exchange began cutting off services to some users 🦖

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On September 25, an exchange confirmed unauthorized transfers and temporarily suspended withdrawals. At the time, the widely reported loss was $178 million. Later, a security firm revised the figure to about $388 million, and the vulnerability was classified as a zero-day. This Saturday, the platform issued another announcement, saying it would terminate services for some customers in a one-time action. Funds are safe, it said. Those affected will be notified by email, in-app messages, and push notifications. Anyone who hasn't received a notice can continue using the platform as usual.

The announcement didn't name the affected users or disclose any selection criteria. It simply stressed one thing: use official channels only, and beware of phishing links and people impersonating customer support. Coming at this point, that sounds a lot like a final step in a targeted account purge: remove affected and risky accounts first, then deal with compensation and accountability.

In my view, the most important thing to remember isn't the $388 million figure itself, but how it changed. It took just a few weeks to go from $178 million to $388 million. That shows why initial estimates of losses from a hacking incident in its first three days are generally unreliable. On-chain tracing, identifying asset ownership, and tracking cross-chain transfers all take time. By the time the full picture emerges, the market has long since moved on.

The more practical point is that ordinary users face risks beyond the day of the theft. Suspended withdrawals, restricted accounts, and long customer-support queues—these secondary harms are often more frustrating than price swings. Keeping a large amount of assets on a single platform essentially hands someone else control over your options. Diversification, cold wallets, and withdrawal whitelists may seem like a hassle in ordinary times, but when things go wrong, they're lifelines.

There are two things to watch next. First, will the platform publish a compensation plan and timeline? Second, will other platforms follow suit and carry out similar account cleanups? The first will determine whether users can get their money back; the second will determine whether this crisis of trust spreads ⚠️

Let's talk in the comments: would you still dare to keep most of your holdings on an exchange? 👀

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