小恐龙说趋势

Miners lose 13% overnight in Wall Street’s worst sell-off this round—but Bitcoin wasn’t what got hammered 🦖

💬 群里一起聊行情

U.S. stocks suffered their worst single-day sell-off since July 29 on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.9%, and 21 of 23 AI infrastructure stocks ended lower, with an average decline of 7.46%. Even Bitcoin miners that have already pivoted to AI data centers were dragged down hard.

TeraWulf fell 12.64% in a single day, Core Scientific dropped 12.44%, Cipher Mining slid 12.35%, and IREN lost 12.2%—all four down more than 12%. Riot, Bitdeer, MARA, and CleanSpark followed suit. The trigger was the release of U.S. September CPI that day: up 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% forecast and well above the Fed’s 2% target. Rising gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict were one of the main drivers.

Here’s the most striking part: Bitcoin wasn’t actually the hardest hit that day. AI infrastructure stocks took the biggest blows: CoreWeave fell 16%, Nebius dropped 11%, and Oracle sank 9%. Miners were simply caught up in the sell-off.

The reason is easy to understand. As rate-hike expectations rise, the financing costs of data center companies expanding through debt are immediately reassessed. Over the past few years, miners have converted a large share of their computing capacity into AI data centers, putting themselves in the same valuation basket. The market is no longer valuing them based on mining revenue; it’s recalculating them through the lens of highly leveraged AI infrastructure stocks ⚠️

Now, on to interest rates. After the data came out, the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in October briefly topped 50%, then retreated. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that day that another hike might be necessary, but there was no need to rush this month. That one comment put the worst-case scenario on hold for now 📉

My take: this was a classic case of an unjustified sell-off compounded by panic selling. Bitcoin fell less than 2% that day, while miners lost double digits. That suggests the market isn’t selling the Bitcoin story right now—it’s selling leverage and financing costs. If rate-hike expectations ease, the stocks that fell hardest are often the ones that bounce back fastest 📈

Of course, it’s worth keeping an eye on things. Miners’ financial results increasingly depend on AI leases rather than mining itself. Going forward, their correlation with Bitcoin’s price will only get weaker. If you want to ride this trend, watch electricity prices, debt maturities, and AI orders—not mining difficulty.

Do you think miners were unfairly punished this time, or was a valuation pullback overdue? Let’s talk in the comments.

Every day, I bring you the latest in Bitcoin and crypto markets—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the news 👀🚀

#法国推进加密自托管申报提案
$940 million in on-chain transactions a year are being brought into the tax base. Now even cold-wallet addresses have to be disclosed. Fail to report and face an $11,000 fine 🦖

🚨 行情变了群里说

The French National Assembly’s Finance Committee has passed two amendments. One requires taxpayers to report self-hosted wallets worth €100,000 (about $112,000) or more. Failure to report could result in a fine of up to €10,000 (about $11,000). The other extends the 31.4% crypto capital gains tax to transactions converting crypto into EU-regulated stablecoins. Both measures would take effect on January 1, 2027 ⚖️

First, the wallet-reporting measure. It is based on amendment I-CF821, and the threshold is determined by the market value of holdings at the end of each year. If your holdings exceed €100,000, you must report your self-hosted wallets. The official justification is that crypto holdings are being underreported, and that the measure will help combat fraud. But note that this is still only a proposal. It must go back to the National Assembly in plenary, and the entire budget bill must pass by December 10.

The second measure is even tougher. France currently taxes crypto gains at a flat rate of 31.4%, generally applying only when assets are sold or spent. The new amendment, CF1826, would make converting Bitcoin into a stablecoin under the MiCA framework a taxable event too—adding another layer of friction out of nowhere. There is also discussion of extending the exit tax to large crypto holdings and allowing losses to be carried forward for 10 years.

The crypto community’s reaction has been explosive. Rand Hindi, founder of privacy protocol Zama, openly urged people who live in France and hold crypto to leave—and, if they can’t, to hire bodyguards for their families. Nym CEO Harry Halpin pointed out that France’s tax authority has already had cases of employees selling crypto holders’ information to criminals. Centralizing the data in one list is like handing criminals a map ⚠️

This is no exaggeration. Over the past two years, France has been a European hotspot for crypto-related robberies. A Ledger co-founder was kidnapped at home and had one of his fingers cut off. The wife of a Sandbox co-founder was targeted in an attempted kidnapping. A couple in their fifties were forced at knifepoint by fake police officers to transfer $1 million in Bitcoin. Statistics show that, of the 52 physical attacks on crypto holders worldwide through July this year, 39 took place in Europe.

Francois Volpoet, Chainalysis’s head of France, also warned that taxing stablecoin conversions will simply push money toward DeFi and over-the-counter markets. That’s because only MiCA-compliant stablecoins are in the crosshairs, while other tokens remain out of range. He offered a comparison: from July 2024 to June 2025, trading volume for the euro stablecoin EURC in Europe rose by 2,727%, while USDC grew by just 86% over the same period.

My take is that the real story isn’t the 31.4% tax rate—it’s the reporting requirement itself. Tax transparency probably isn’t going away, but creating a list of who holds how much crypto that could be leaked by insiders comes with risks that are out of proportion to the benefits. The most likely short-term outcome isn’t that French people sell their crypto, but that they move their assets and transactions somewhere beyond the reach of regulators.

Two things are worth watching: first, whether the self-hosted wallet reporting clause survives past December 10; and second, where money goes outside MiCA-regulated stablecoins. If trading volumes for other assets rise noticeably, it’ll be a sign that the market has voted with its feet.

Do you think this kind of reporting requirement will spread to more countries? Let’s discuss in the comments.

Every day, I bring you the latest in crypto regulation and on-chain trends—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

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Only 4.6% away from $100: 12% of leveraged positions exited in a week 🦖

⚡ 有大动静群里说

SOL is currently at $104.59, down 2.1% in 24 hours and 9.3% over the past week. It’s now just about 4.6% away from the key $100 level. But the real shift this time isn’t in the price—it’s in leverage. Over the past week, open interest in SOL futures fell by 12.1%, while funding rates slid from positive territory all the way to zero 📉

This suggests that the leveraged positions built up during the previous rally are now being unwound in an orderly fashion. It’s not panic selling; traders are simply paying down their borrowed positions. Spot prices are still holding firmly above $100, and over the past 30 days, SOL is actually still up around 1.3%. It’s leverage that’s falling—not the underlying holdings.

The timing is even more interesting. Next Wednesday, October 21, Solana is set to launch its next-generation consensus mechanism, Alpenglow. It will activate at epoch 1064. According to the official targets, transaction finality will drop from around 12.8 seconds today to 150 milliseconds—about 85 times faster. Vote transactions will be moved entirely off the block, freeing up block space. The network’s fault tolerance is set at 20% malicious stake plus 20% of nodes going offline ⚡

On one side, the technology aims to cut confirmation times from over ten seconds to a fraction of a second. On the other, market participants are choosing to reduce leverage first. The fact that both are happening at once is what makes this market move worth watching.

My take: paying down leverage before the upgrade is usually healthier than seeing prices drift steadily lower until a cascade of liquidations kicks in. But it’s still worth staying alert. If SOL loses $100, stop-loss orders and liquidation levels could cluster around that key threshold. At that point, the test won’t be sentiment—it’ll be whether spot buyers are willing to step in.

There are two things to watch: first, whether SOL can hold $100 at the daily close; second, whether active addresses and actual network fees pick up on the day the upgrade goes live. No matter how compelling the story sounds, the data will have the final say.

Do you think this is a leverage shakeout ahead of the upgrade, or a turning point for this altcoin rally?

Let’s talk in the comments.

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#strive斥资2.8亿美元增持3311枚btc
After pouring in $515 million across two purchases, it now has just 18 more Bitcoin than its rival—and has claimed fourth place among U.S.-listed companies holding Bitcoin 🦖

📈 进群看今日思路

Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury company Strive has made another move. It bought 2,822 Bitcoin between October 12 and 13 at an average price of $83,266, spending about $235 million. That brought its total holdings to 35,595 Bitcoin—just 18 more than longtime mining company MARA’s 35,577, putting Strive in fourth place 📈

This didn’t happen in isolation. Just a few days earlier, Strive had bought 3,311 Bitcoin at an average price of $84,500, for about $280 million. Combined, the two purchases total 6,133 Bitcoin and roughly $515 million in spending. Its holdings jumped from 29,462 to 35,595 Bitcoin in one go, an 8.6% increase in a short time 🐋

Here’s the current leaderboard: Strategy is far ahead of everyone with 848,250 Bitcoin, followed by Metaplanet with 44,000, Twenty One Capital with 43,514, Strive with 35,595, and MARA with 35,577. In other words, the gap between fourth and fifth place is just 18 Bitcoin, worth about $1.47 million at current prices. Normal price fluctuations over a single day could easily flip their positions back and forth.

What’s even more worth considering is the cost basis. The average purchase prices for these two buys were $83,266 and $84,500, both above Bitcoin’s current price of $81,716. In other words, they’re already sitting on paper losses. But the price isn’t what they’re focused on—it’s their ranking, and the stock price that ranking can help deliver. The stock is up 87% so far this year. Earlier in the year, Strive also completed an acquisition, bringing Semler Scientific into the fold and adding about 5,048 Bitcoin—turning a healthcare company into a Bitcoin treasury company.

My take: the ranking race among Bitcoin treasury companies is itself fuel for fundraising. The higher a company ranks, the easier it is to issue shares and debt, raise money, and buy more Bitcoin—pushing it further up the rankings. This cycle looks perfect when prices are rising, but it ties companies’ share prices ever more tightly to Bitcoin’s price. If prices fall, fundraising windows and repayment pressures could hit at the same time. Rather than a moat, Strive’s extra 18 Bitcoin may simply put it right on the dividing line.

Do you think these Bitcoin treasury companies competing for rankings is a sign that the industry is maturing, or a warning sign of another cycle of leveraged growth?

Let’s talk in the comments.

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#以太坊跌破2500美元
Ethereum falls below $2,500 after 10 straight days of declines—money had just started flowing back, but it couldn’t stop the slide 🦖

💥 ⏰ 消息群里第一时间说

In the early hours of October 15, Ethereum was trading at $2,428, down 2.83% over 24 hours. The $2,500 threshold had officially been breached. At the same time, Bitcoin fell to $81,528, down 1.81% over 24 hours. More than 83,000 crypto traders were liquidated across the market in the past 24 hours 📉

The trigger didn’t come from crypto. U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year over year in September, above the market’s 3.6% forecast. Oil prices pushed inflation back up. In just one day, the odds of another 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s meeting later this month surged from 22.1% to 53.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.308%, nearing a 24-year high. U.S. stocks and silver fell together, and crypto looked like collateral damage.

The starkest contrast is this: Ethereum spot ETFs had just ended a 10-day streak of net outflows, with a single-day net inflow of $24.8394 million. Grayscale’s ETH fund alone accounted for $16.72 million. Money had only just turned positive, yet the price broke below support. That suggests pricing power this time isn’t coming from crypto-market flows—it’s coming from macro factors 🐋

The knock-on effects are showing up too. Ethereum treasury stocks weakened across the board during U.S. trading, with SharpLink leading the declines. Bitmine, the largest ETH accumulator, now holds 6.03 million ETH—about 4.9% of the circulating supply. Every step lower in the token’s price puts more pressure on these companies’ balance sheets and financing narratives. In a downturn, the treasury strategy comes down to who can access cheaper capital.

My take: Ethereum’s fundamentals haven’t deteriorated; it’s been reclassified as a risk asset. This CPI-driven drop has put rate-hike expectations back on the table. As long as oil prices stay high, it’ll be hard for crypto to rally independently before the Fed meeting. The key level to watch now is whether ETH can reclaim $2,500 from $2,428 within two days. If it can’t, the next area to watch is around $2,300 🦕

So, what do you think? Is Ethereum falling along with the broader market, or did it weaken on its own first? Let’s talk in the comments.

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#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
Gasoline surged 9.1% in a month, Bitcoin got hammered for $1,500 overnight, and the odds of a rate hike more than doubled 💥

🕐 最新解读群里更新

The U.S. September CPI report just came out: inflation rose 3.7% year over year, above the market’s 3.6% forecast and well above August’s 3.4%. Bitcoin promptly fell from above $83,000 to $82,142, while Ethereum dropped 2.8% to $2,440. More than $281 million in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, most of them longs wiped out in a wave during the final four hours.

Let’s lay out the numbers. Gasoline was the biggest driver of inflation this time, surging 9.1% in a single month and accounting for more than half of the monthly increase. The overall energy index rose 5.2%, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed to 2.6%—0.1 percentage point above expectations. That shows price increases aren’t confined to oil; they’re gradually spreading to rents, airfares, and services. That’s exactly what the Fed is watching most closely.

The market reacted even faster than the data itself. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting jumping from 22.1% the previous day to 53.7%. The odds of another hike in December also reached 50%. The two-year Treasury yield jumped about 10 basis points to 4.9%, while the 10-year yield surged to 5.329%, nearing a 24-year high. Gold fell back to $4,079, the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%.

🦖 In plain English: this isn’t just an ordinary pullback. The market is repricing the Fed. Just yesterday, people were saying there might be no rate hikes in 2027; now, overnight, hikes have gone from a tail risk to the mainstream scenario. Bitcoin is currently stuck in the $81,847–$82,305 golden zone. If it closes below $81,603 on the daily chart, the previous low of $80,365 comes into play.

My take: what really matters isn’t today’s drop, but Friday’s PPI. If prices at the producer level also climb, a December hike could shift from an option to a foregone conclusion, and the good times for risk assets will be shorter-lived.

One more thing to keep in mind: oil prices have stayed above $90 for two months. As long as energy prices remain elevated, inflation will struggle to truly cool down.

Do you think this is a short-term wick, or is the rate-hike cycle starting up again? Let’s talk in the comments.

I’ll keep you up to date on CPI and Fed news every day—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

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#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
Inflation turns back up: September CPI jumps to 3.7% year over year, Bitcoin gets slammed down $1,000 in an instant 🦖

⚡ 有大动静群里说

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data Wednesday morning showing that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% month over month in September, while the year-over-year increase climbed from 3.4% in August to 3.7%, above market expectations of 3.6%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year, also beating expectations across the board. As soon as the data came out, Bitcoin quickly fell from around $83,300, shedding about $1,000 to trade at $82,800 💥

The bond market took the hardest hit. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 9.3 basis points to 5.308%, while the 2-year yield jumped even more, up 13.1 basis points to 4.924%. Both climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.65%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.3%, and even gold slid 1.5% to $4,116 an ounce 📉

The strange thing about this report is that the 0.6% month-over-month increase was right in line with expectations. The real shock was buried in the year-over-year figure and core components. Inflation isn’t gradually cooling—it’s quietly picking up speed again. Ahead of the meeting, a number of Fed officials had already floated the possibility of another 25-basis-point rate hike before year-end. Markets had expected the Fed to hold rates steady at this month’s meeting and save any hike for December. Now, an October hike is back on the table ⚖️

In other words, if rate-hike expectations return, the dollar and Treasury yields have room to push higher. Bitcoin, an asset that generates no cash flow, is among the first to take the hit. The $82,000 level it’s now holding isn’t just a technical support level—it’s also a psychological dividing line between bulls and bears. Hold above it, and this is a pullback; fail to hold it, and the trend has reversed.

Do you think this 25-basis-point hike will actually happen in October? Is this move in Bitcoin a pullback or a turning point? Let’s discuss in the comments.

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#美国以太坊etf连续10日净流出
After 10 straight days of outflows totaling $783 million, Ethereum ETF money finally stopped running 🦖

🕐 最新解读群里更新

On Tuesday, Eastern Time, spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $24.839 million in a single day—the first positive day after 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows. One Grayscale ETH product alone contributed $16.7278 million, about two-thirds of the day’s total inflows. All the other products combined brought in only around $8.11 million.

The backdrop: the official topic had logged 10 consecutive days of net outflows. Last week’s net outflows totaled $542 million, the worst weekly figure since January this year. BlackRock’s ETHA alone saw $477 million flow out. According to third-party figures, cumulative outflows over those 10 trading days were around $783 million. By Tuesday this week, the numbers had finally turned green 📈

Here’s the contrast: the money is back, but the price isn’t. Ethereum rose just 0.32% over 24 hours, hovering around $2,505, with a market cap of about $305.9 billion. Bitcoin held at $83,460, proving steadier than Ethereum. On one side, passive ETF money is turning back; on the other, active investors are still waiting on the sidelines.

Now let’s look at the other side of demand. Bitmine, the market’s largest Ethereum buyer, has built up a position of around 6.03 million ETH, close to 5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. At current prices, that’s worth about $15 billion. Its total holdings of crypto, cash, and tradable securities are worth about $16.2 billion. The question is: when this biggest buyer can no longer keep buying, who will take the baton? That’s the key variable worth watching next ⚠️

I have three takeaways. First, a single-day inflow of $24.83 million is just a drop in the bucket compared with the outflows that were often over $100 million. One day of data can’t tell us the trend. Second, the return of inflows to Grayscale ETH, a long-established product, looks more like dip-buying than the start of a new narrative. Third, what Ethereum lacks right now isn’t money—it’s a story. In October, capital rotated into high-beta assets like ZEC and NEAR. Money always flows toward places with greater upside potential.

So I see this ETF turnaround as stemming the bleeding, not a reversal. What would confirm a real reversal is net inflows for at least three consecutive days, alongside the price reclaiming $2,600. Do you still hold Ethereum? Do you think this is a return of capital or the start of a turning point? Let’s talk in the comments 👇

Every day, I bring you the latest crypto trends—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 👀🚀

#比特币突破8.4万美元
The one-line takeaway: no more rate hikes needed in 2027. Bitcoin bounced back 1.5% overnight, climbing to $83,900 🦖

🏛️ ⏰ 消息群里第一时间说

New York Fed President Williams’ latest remarks became the direct fuel for this rally. The dollar weakened in response, and Asian stocks turned positive across the board.

But he also left himself some wiggle room, saying there could still be one more rate hike this year. Thursday’s U.S. inflation data will be the real judge.

Let’s get the numbers straight.

Bitcoin rose 1.5% on the day, nearing $83,900 and moving back toward its previous high.
Ethereum gained 2%, returning to around $2,520.
SOL and Dogecoin each rose 2.5%.
Privacy coin ZEC led the way, surging nearly 7% in a day to about $1,270.
XRP, BNB, and HYPE gained 1% to 2%, while Tron (TRX) was the weakest, up less than 1%.

On the macro front, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, staying close to last week’s record highs 📈
Asian chip stocks stopped falling, with Samsung and SK Hynix both rebounding and ending a five-day losing streak.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.7%, recovering from a two-month low.

Oil is adding to the heat: Brent crude rose 0.7% to around $106, while U.S. crude has now risen for five straight days.

In plain English, this isn’t a bull-market signal—it’s a typical rebound in expectations.

Williams said no further rate hikes would be needed in 2027, while also acknowledging that another hike could still be on the table this year.
The market only heard the first half. The dollar came under pressure, and risk assets immediately caught their breath ⚠️

Thursday’s inflation data is the real turning point.
If the reading is cool enough to rule out that final rate hike this year, Bitcoin may get a chance to test $85,000.
If the reading comes in hot, this rally could easily be knocked back to where it started.

So this rise looks more like a dash ahead of the data release.
Rather than chasing prices higher, keep an eye on two things: Thursday’s inflation data, and whether Bitcoin can truly break above $84,000—a resistance level it has repeatedly failed to clear.

Join the discussion in the comments: do you think this is the end of the rate-hiking cycle, or another bull trap?
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A chip hidden inside a wallet’s casing. All it takes is one glance at the screen while setting up the device: 24 words are sent over a mobile network, and $86 million may have vanished as a result 🦖

⚡ 有大动静群里说

On October 13, hardware wallet giant Ledger asked distributors in six countries—Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia—as well as Hong Kong, to stop selling its products and remove all devices from store shelves. The reason: Ledger confirmed that a device had been tampered with ⚠️

The most insidious thing about this chip is that it doesn’t touch the firmware or the security chip that stores the keys. It does just one thing: spy on the screen during setup. When the 24-word recovery phrase appears, it decodes the words and sends them out over an LTE network using a built-in eSIM. In other words, the device’s appearance, packaging, and signature verification all look normal. You’d never know 🔐

It started on October 9, when a problem was reported with devices sold by Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis. On October 10, Ledger officially confirmed that one device had been compromised. On-chain investigator Specter traced suspected thefts totaling more than $86 million across Ethereum, Tron, and Bitcoin. Two other researchers estimated the figure at between $72 million and $86 million. But Ledger stressed that it has yet to verify the number of people affected or the total losses.

The fallout has spread across the industry. European electronics retail giant MediaMarkt announced that it would remove all Ledger products from its physical stores and online platforms. Competitor Trezor also announced on October 13 that it would reduce its network of authorized distributors, effective January 1, 2027, and immediately stop supplying those channels. It emphasized that there is no evidence its own devices have been compromised; the move is a response to recent supply-chain incidents 💥

My take: this incident didn’t pierce the encryption—it exposed the final link in the hardware wallet business model: distribution. The industry has long said hardware wallets are the safest option because the keys stay offline and you get the device directly from an authorized source. But this incident shows exactly the opposite: if someone can tamper with a distributor, the device in your hands could look brand-new, have intact packaging, and run clean firmware—and still be a device with a spy inside.

The bigger problem is that you can’t prove the device is clean using conventional methods. You can verify a firmware change with a signature, and check a chip’s serial number. But an independent add-on that only reads the screen and sends a message leaves the device working as usual. That’s why Ledger’s only response has been to halt sales across the entire region: even Ledger doesn’t yet know at which point in the distribution chain the chip was planted.

For everyday crypto holders, there are three things worth watching next: First, will the investigation extend to markets outside Southeast Asia? Second, will tighter controls on distribution force more people to buy hardware wallets directly from manufacturers? Third, will multisig go from an institutional setup to a standard for individuals? Using devices from different manufacturers to create a multisig wallet means that even if one device is compromised, the funds can’t be moved.

Let’s discuss in the comments: Did you buy your hardware wallet from an official source or a third party? What do you check after unboxing it?

Every day, I bring you the latest from the crypto world—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 👀🚀

#英国高院裁定钱志敏案适用中国法
Bitcoin has risen 200-fold in ten years: from 2,815 yuan per coin to 560,000 yuan. Victims may ultimately get back only their principal 🦖

🕐 最新解读群里更新

On October 12, the High Court of England and Wales issued a key ruling in the Tianjin Lantian Gerui illegal fundraising case. The property claims of 16,000 Chinese victims to the approximately 61,000 seized bitcoins must be judged under Chinese law. The coins were bought in 2014 at an average price of 2,815 yuan each. Today, each is worth around 560,000 yuan, bringing their total value to more than 34 billion yuan. Victims who register claims are highly likely to recover only their principal plus interest ⚖️

The difference comes down to one word. Under English law, bitcoin is classified as property, so victims can claim ownership of the bitcoins themselves—including the 200-fold increase in value. Chinese law does not recognize bitcoin as property. Judgments involving crypto typically support repayment of the original investment plus interest. Put simply: if you invested 100 yuan and the coins bought with that money rose in value to 20,000 yuan, the law recognizes only your original 100 yuan, plus a little interest. The remaining 19,900 yuan has nothing to do with you.

Lantian Gerui was established in March 2014 and issued 10 wealth-management products promising returns of one to three times the investment. At its peak, it attracted more than 120,000 investors and raised over 40 billion yuan in total. The scheme's operator, Qian Zhimin, also known by the alias “Sister Hua,” used a large portion of the funds to accumulate bitcoin on a certain exchange. Evidence presented in the English court showed that she may have handled as many as 190,000 bitcoins, of which around 120,000 remain unaccounted for 🐋

Repayments collapsed in July 2017. Qian Zhimin fled to the UK using a forged passport. In 2018, she tried to buy a £23.5 million mansion in London with bitcoin, but the deal fell through because she could not explain the source of the funds. In May 2021, UK police seized around 61,000 bitcoins, then worth more than £3 billion—the largest cryptocurrency seizure in law-enforcement history. In November 2025, she was sentenced in London to 11 years and eight months in prison. Accomplices in China had already been sentenced. Across two rounds of compensation, victims have recovered only around 13% of their principal.

What’s even more chilling is that the UK has an asset-recovery incentive scheme called ARIS. If recovered criminal assets have no lawful claimant, 50% goes to the UK Treasury. If victims recover only their principal under Chinese law, the 200-fold increase may have no lawful claimant—and is quite likely to flow into the UK’s coffers. The coins bought with victims’ hard-earned money rose 200-fold, but the gains may end up in another country’s treasury 📈

The ruling is not yet final. The court said the evidence still requires further examination, and the parties may appeal. The 61,000 bitcoins are sitting in a custodial account, fluctuating in value—and continuing to appreciate—every day.

Here’s a point worth remembering: how the property status of crypto assets is determined directly decides whether your coins count as your money. This isn’t a technical issue; it’s a question of jurisdiction. For cross-border crypto, ownership often depends on which country’s court seizes it first, and whether that country’s laws recognize it. The UK High Court ruled that Chinese law applies in the Qian Zhimin case. The implications could affect an entire generation of cross-border crypto holders.

Let’s discuss in the comments: who do you think will ultimately get the 200-fold increase in value? Do the victims have a chance of turning things around on appeal?

Every day, we bring you the latest developments in crypto—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 👀🚀

#strategy增持250枚比特币
Someone holding 848,250 bitcoins has an average cost of just $75,444 per coin. Their unrealized gains alone amount to $6.6 billion, yet their own company’s stock has fallen 53% over the past year 🦖

💡 群里更新数据解读

That person is Michael Saylor. In his latest Bloomberg interview, he made two predictions: first, Bitcoin is back in a bull market; second, it will break above $100,000 again. His strategy company will keep buying—and won’t stop.

First, the hard numbers: as of October 11, his company held a total of 848,250 bitcoins. At the current price of $83,400, they’re worth about $70.6 billion. The total cost of this Bitcoin stash was around $64 billion, or just $75,444 per coin on average. This holding already exceeds 4% of Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins.

Now, this week’s activity: from October 5 to 11, he spent another $21.5 million to buy 250 bitcoins at an average price of $86,194. The money came mainly from selling his own MSTR shares. Last week, he sold 125,183 shares, raising about $21 million. He still has $18.8 billion worth of stock available to sell, and also spent $192.4 million to repurchase 1,932,145 STRC preferred shares.

The real point of interest is the contrast: the company has been piling up Bitcoin and is sitting on $6.6 billion in unrealized gains, while MSTR stock fell 7% last week, closing Friday at $154.34. It’s down 53% over the past year. The Bitcoin stash profits from having the patience to hold when others don’t dare; the stock losses, meanwhile, test the patience of his own investors. That gap is the signal worth watching next ⚠️

My take: his $100,000 call implies about 20% upside from the current price of $83,400. For someone whose cost basis is only $75,444, it feels more like an effort to boost market confidence. If Bitcoin really gets back above $100,000, the numbers on his 848,250 coins will look very different. On the other hand, if it falls below the $75,444 cost basis, that’s when everyone will have to recalculate 📈

Do you think Saylor will be right about $100,000 this time, or is this another emotional call? Let’s talk in the comments 👀

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Behind eight million devices sold, someone slipped a chip into a hardware wallet that can send text messages all by itself 🦖

🚨 行情变了群里说

On Tuesday, Ledger’s security research team, Donjon, confirmed that some signing devices sold through the Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis contained an unauthorized hardware implant. It was designed to monitor the device’s screen, capture all 24 words the moment a recovery phrase appeared, then send the data in real time over an LTE network using a built-in eSIM ⚠️

The most outrageous part of this attack is that it doesn’t touch the secure element, alter the system, or change transaction signatures. The device looks completely normal in your hands, while someone else has already made off with your coins.

Here are the numbers: the implant is a standalone component with its own power supply, and it relies only on the screen. So far, officials have confirmed one affected device. On-chain investigator Specter traced more than $86 million in suspected thefts, while another security outlet put the estimate as high as $103 million, across Ethereum, Tron, and Bitcoin. Ledger itself says it has sold more than eight million hardware wallets in ten years 📉

The timeline is short. On Friday, October 9, a user reported a loss. On Saturday, the company confirmed that one device had indeed been tampered with. It wasn’t until Tuesday that the attack method was made public. European retail chain MediaMarkt has now pulled Ledger products from its shelves, distributor CryptoBilis has halted all sales, and even Trezor and OneKey have rushed to distance themselves.

My take: this wasn’t a software hack; it was a supply chain breach. The biggest selling point of a hardware wallet is supposed to be that your private keys never go online. But if someone has already opened the device before it reaches you, “never goes online” becomes an empty promise. This also helps explain why more and more institutions simply hand their money over to custodians. You may be able to protect your private keys, but that doesn’t mean you can secure the delivery process.

One thing to watch: white-hat hackers have already pointed out that robust tamper detection at the factory and clear accountability throughout distribution would make this kind of attack far more expensive. So the real concern shouldn’t be one particular company, but every hardware distribution channel without end-to-end accountability.

Let’s talk in the comments: would you still dare to read your hardware wallet’s recovery phrase directly off the device?

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#英国高院裁定钱志敏案适用中国法
$5 billion, 61,000 bitcoins, but victims can't get a penny. One sentence from a UK court slammed the door shut 🦖

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On Monday, the High Court of London ruled that the 61,000 bitcoins seized in the case against Qian Zhimin must be adjudicated under Chinese law, not British law. At current prices, the coins are worth more than $5 billion, or around £3.8 billion. The fraud took place 9 years ago and involved 128,000 investors. The money was eventually all converted into bitcoin.

It all began in 2014. Qian Zhimin ran a Ponzi scheme through a Tianjin-based electronics technology company. From 2014 to 2017, she defrauded more than 128,000 investors, then converted the stolen money into bitcoin. She fled to the UK in 2017. British police seized all the coins during a money-laundering investigation, and they have been held for years.

The victims have been trying to pursue the case under British law, because it would allow them to claim direct ownership of the bitcoin rather than queue up as ordinary creditors. But on Monday, Judge Mark Turner sided with the British government. He said that the relevant losses occurred in China, the applicants handed over their money in China, and the misrepresentations were also made there. Therefore, ownership of the property must be determined under Chinese law.

In other words, this ruling did not directly decide who will ultimately get the coins, but it shut off the victims' fastest route. It also significantly increased the chances that the UK Treasury will keep the money. The victims' lawyers at Fieldfisher have already said they will appeal. UK prosecutors say there will be another hearing, first to get expert opinions on whether ownership can be established under Chinese law.

One contrast is worth remembering: the US established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve back in March 2025, putting coins seized by law enforcement directly onto the national balance sheet. According to Arkham, addresses linked to the US government hold $25.8 billion in crypto assets, all seized and not bought with a single taxpayer dollar.

So the real story isn't who's right or wrong. Governments around the world are turning seized bitcoin from evidence into assets ⚖️ The more the price of bitcoin surges, the fiercer the fight between governments and victims becomes 💥 The 61,000 coins are sitting in the UK Treasury, gaining value every day. The longer this goes on, the harder the question will be to resolve.

Do you think bitcoin seized in cases like this should ultimately be returned to victims or go into government coffers? Let us know in the comments 👇

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#blur拟于11月12日停用blur.io前端
From $1.3 billion to less than $7 million: the Ethereum NFT marketplace that was once the biggest is shutting down next month 🦖

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Blur announced on its official account Monday that its website will officially shut down on November 12, along with its NFT lending service, Blend. Borrowers must either repay their loans before the site closes or face default. Its on-chain contracts will continue to run on Ethereum.

The really striking part isn’t the shutdown itself, but the trading curve behind it. Monthly trading volume plunged from about $1.43 billion in March 2023 to less than $7 million in March 2026—a decline of more than 99.5% in three years.

The platform rose to prominence by taking on industry leader OpenSea. Launched in 2022, it came out swinging with zero fees and token rewards, and by March 2023 had captured more than 70% of Ethereum NFT trading volume. Its website still boasts of over $7.4 billion in cumulative trading volume 🐋

But business is business. In three years, it has earned virtually nothing from transaction fees. Token Terminal records the protocol’s revenue as zero. Traffic built on rewards is hard to turn into sustainable income—and that was exactly what creators criticized it for: undercutting prices and squeezing their royalty shares ⚖️

The timeline is even more telling. Ten days ago, Blast, the Ethereum layer-2 network run by the same team, announced it was shutting down. Its assets shrank from a peak of over $2 billion to around $32 million. The shutdowns are staggered: Blast users have until October 26 to withdraw, and then it’s Blur’s turn on November 12 📉

After the news broke, the BLUR token fell more than 20% that day, trading at around $0.015. The brand has retreated behind the scenes, but the underlying protocol isn’t entirely dead: token holders still have the power to vote on turning fees on or off.

My take is that in this NFT downturn, the most expensive thing was never the floor price—it was the model of using token subsidies to buy traffic. Once the token loses its value, the subsidies dry up, the traffic disappears, and all that’s left is a user base that won’t stick around and a three-year balance sheet showing zero revenue 🦕

Where have your friends who used to be into NFTs gone? Let’s talk in the comments 👇

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#sk海力士股价下跌7.1%
$803 million wiped out in a day. 86% were longs. 172,000 traders liquidated 💥

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The fuse for this cascade of liquidations was lit in Asia 🦖

Over the past 24 hours, 10 trading platforms liquidated a total of about $803 million in leveraged positions. Long positions accounted for $694 million of that, or 86%. A total of 172,000 traders were liquidated.

The most intense wave came in the last 12 hours, with about $595 million liquidated—nearly three-quarters of the daily total. During that time, South Korea’s KOSPI index briefly fell more than 6%, while Bitcoin dropped below $81,000.

The largest single liquidation was a Bitcoin long worth about $9.65 million, wiped out near $81,773. In crypto, $181 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated, with Ethereum close behind at $178 million. SOL came to $60 million, ZEC to $24 million, and NEAR to $22 million.

More noteworthy, though, is that a stock name also made it onto the liquidation leaderboard. Perpetual contracts tracking U.S. memory-chip maker SanDisk saw $19.09 million liquidated—more than HYPE at $19.04 million and XRP at $18.78 million. This shows that a considerable share of the leverage on crypto platforms is now tied to chip stocks. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell about 8% in Seoul that day, amid concerns over AI valuations and competition from Chinese memory-chip makers.

Then came the reversal. Of the $74 million liquidated over the past four hours, $59 million—or 79%—came from short positions. Bitcoin climbed back above $83,000, while Brent crude held near $106 after a three-day rally.

In other words, this was a classic leverage flush: longs were wiped out first, then shorts got caught in the rebound. Two groups took turns getting hit in a single day. More importantly, Bitcoin is heading into Thursday’s U.S. inflation report with leverage already flushed out. That means the price reaction to the data could be more dramatic than usual, because there’s no leverage cushion left.

Do you think this is a reversal or just a bounce? Will Thursday’s inflation data deliver another blow? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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$60 million drained from Ethereum users by frontrunning bots in a year. Now someone is hiding transactions in a black box 🦖

🚨 行情变了群里说

On Monday, the established blockchain Aptos launched a new feature on its mainnet called an encrypted mempool. In simple terms, it keeps your transactions encrypted after you submit them and until they’ve been ordered and finalized in a block. No one can see what’s inside ahead of time ⚠️

When you submit a large transaction on-chain, everyone on the network can see in advance which contract you’re calling, what you’re trading, and how much. Frontrunning bots exploit that transparency to get ahead of you—or sandwich your transaction—and make money at your expense. According to figures from EigenPhi cited by Cointelegraph, Ethereum users lost about $60 million to these sandwich attacks in a year. In a sample of Solana activity tracked by Bitquery, bots made $29.7 million using the same tactic over 11 months, through roughly 6.9 million attacks that affected around 2.2 million wallets 💥

How does it work? If your wallet or app supports the feature, your transaction is encrypted on your phone before it’s sent to the blockchain. Validators can see your address and transaction fee, but not the transaction contents. First, everyone agrees on the ordering. Once it’s set, the validators collectively decrypt and execute the transactions. The key point is that no individual validator can decrypt them alone, so they can’t peek in advance ✅

There are trade-offs, too: the minimum fee for an encrypted transaction is twice the network’s base minimum. In tests with 50 nodes, each block took about 20 milliseconds longer. Aptos says its approach is different because ordering and decryption are handled collectively by the existing validators, without relying on a separate decryption committee or a trusted block builder.

This isn’t the first move of its kind in the industry. In July 2024, Gnosis Chain launched an encrypted mempool in partnership with Shutter. On Ethereum, there’s also Flashbots Protect, which sends transactions privately to block builders. Whoever can keep transactions hidden until they’re on-chain can help users get picked off by bots less often. Aptos has made it an optional feature on its mainnet, and also added support for institutional large-value transactions and AI agents.

My take: encrypted mempools tackle information asymmetry, not price volatility. They don’t guarantee you’ll make money; they just stop frontrunning bots from making money by peeking at your orders. Adoption will be the real test. If people are willing to pay twice the base gas fee for this protection, it shows just how badly on-chain traders have been hurt by MEV. On the other hand, if no one uses it, it’ll just be another optional feature gathering dust in the corner.

What’s worth watching is whether other major blockchains follow suit—and whether tools like this can genuinely reduce the scale of on-chain MEV.

Do you think hiding transactions is a shield for retail traders, or will it make on-chain activity less transparent? Join the conversation in the comments 👀🚀

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A long-established British bank locks $2.45 billion worth of stablecoins in its own vault 🏦

🚨 行情变了群里说

Standard Chartered’s Dubai branch has announced that it will begin providing custody for RLUSD, the stablecoin issued by Ripple, for institutional clients. The version in custody runs directly on the XRP Ledger. The clients are institutions regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The bank won’t just safeguard the assets—it will also have the authority to monitor, freeze, and dispose of the funds.

The next step is even more significant: Standard Chartered plans to connect with an institutional trading platform in London, allowing institutions to use these stablecoins directly as trading margin through what’s known as “collateral mirroring.” The coins stay in Standard Chartered’s custody account, while the trading platform records an equivalent mirrored balance. The coins don’t have to move at all 💰

This design addresses one of the industry’s biggest pain points. In the past, when exchanges collapsed, customers’ collateral held there went down with them. Now, collateral can be locked up with a bank considered too big to fail. Even if the trading platform runs into trouble, the coins remain on Standard Chartered’s books. Standard Chartered is one of the 29 global systemically important banks designated by the Financial Stability Board, and faces some of the strictest capital requirements ⚖️

But the market is still small. RLUSD has a market cap of around $2.45 billion, accounting for less than 1% of the roughly $306 billion stablecoin market. It launched in December 2024 and runs on both Ethereum and the XRP Ledger. This custody service covers only the XRP Ledger version, which received regulatory approval in Dubai just this June 🦖

What’s really worth noting is the bank’s roadmap. It began offering crypto custody in Dubai in 2024. This July, it became the first global systemically important bank in the world to let institutions mint and redeem Circle’s USDC directly. Now it’s bringing Ripple’s stablecoin on board too, connecting the dots between stablecoin custody, minting, collateral, and settlement.

My take: the next stablecoin battle won’t be fought on exchanges, but on bank balance sheets. Once licensed banks take over custody, minting and redemption, and settlement, stablecoins will evolve from a way to transfer money within the crypto world into a standard component of institutional financial infrastructure. Retail investors may not notice much in the short term, but this will determine whether institutional capital dares to enter the market in earnest next time around.

Do you think having banks custody stablecoins makes them safer for institutions, or does it just move the risk somewhere else? Let’s talk in the comments.

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#ledger确认用户设备遭植入未授权硬件
$87 million drained from more than 450 wallets 🦖
Hardware wallet maker Ledger released a 72-hour investigation update on Sunday. All confirmed victim cases point to the same Southeast Asian reseller, CryptoBilis, which has completely stopped selling hardware wallets.

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The story began to unfold last Friday, when users in Southeast Asia reported that funds had mysteriously disappeared from devices they bought from CryptoBilis. On-chain investigator Specter traced more than $86 million in suspected theft across Ethereum, Tron, and Bitcoin. Ledger has yet to confirm that figure, and has also been unable to explain exactly how the funds disappeared.
Ledger’s official statement says it confirmed that users’ devices had been implanted with unauthorized hardware. Put simply: you think you’re buying an offline cold wallet, but by the time it reaches you, your private keys may no longer be secret ⚠️
The thieves’ full operation has been captured on-chain. Analyst YFarmX found that 2,810 ETH was sent to the mixer Tornado Cash in three transactions, then passed through Zcash’s shielded pool. Around 3.28 million USDC was transferred to three brand-new wallets. Another $15 million in stolen USDT was first swapped for USDD, which Tether can’t freeze, and then swapped back into 5.1 million USDT, of which about 4.23 million was sent to exchange deposit addresses.
Tether froze 10 million USDT on the first day, but 15,475 ETH, 203 BTC, and 10 million USDD are still out there, beyond recovery. The figures sound frightening, but what really hurts is that victims of these devices are often people who have put their entire life savings into them.
More troubling still, someone in Europe has come forward saying they bought a Ledger that had been tampered with in the same way, with strange extra cables and an LTE module inside. They’re calling for the manufacturer to issue a recall. This claim hasn’t been independently verified yet, but if it’s substantiated, the entire hardware wallet industry’s security narrative will have to be rewritten.
To put it plainly, the damage from this incident isn’t about the amount of money—it’s about trust. Hardware wallets sell you one promise: you can rest assured that your private keys will always stay offline. That promise now has a crack in it. If even one device can be tampered with between leaving the factory and reaching its user, no matter how expensive the chip is, it can’t protect you.
Where did you buy your hardware wallet—from an official store, or from a cheaper third-party seller? 📉
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#比特币重回8.4万美元
Bitcoin climbed to $84,254 before getting slapped back down—all in a single day. The crypto Fear and Greed Index crashed from 82 to 56 🦖

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Before the U.S. market opened on Monday, Bitcoin briefly surged to $84,254 on Bitstamp, its highest level since last Wednesday. It then gave back 2.2% over the next two hours, falling back to around $83,000. That leaves it about 34% below last year’s October 6 all-time high.

The first thing weighing on markets is oil. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Russia is still attacking energy infrastructure, while Iran reported that an oil tanker was hit and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude climbed above $94, and Brent touched $107.25, its highest level since September 16 🛢️

The second is U.S. Treasuries. The 30-year yield touched 5.70%, its highest level since 2002. Money is being pulled into risk-free assets, while Bitcoin pays no yield. It’s one of the toughest macro combinations for Bitcoin this year ⚠️

Market sentiment is also cooling. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 56 on Monday, in neutral territory. It was at 67 a week ago, while its August 26 peak of 82 was the highest reading of the year. It took less than two months to go from extreme greed back to neutral 📉

Now, the flows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $484.9 million last Wednesday, their worst single day since June. Another $244.1 million flowed out on Thursday, followed by a modest $21.1 million inflow on Friday. Net outflows for October now total $386.3 million. Ethereum funds have seen outflows for nine straight days, with about $635 million leaving this month.

But the options market is sending a different signal. QCP Capital noted that implied volatility has held firm even as spot prices fell, while the usual premium on put options has narrowed. In other words, the market is becoming less defensive, yet still pricing in the possibility of an upside breakout. Its view: a clean break above $87,000 could put $94,000 in sight.

Order-book data also reflects this tug-of-war. Sell orders totaling around $180 million are stacked near $84,500, while bids below $82,000 are growing. Analyst Rekt Capital sees $83,400 as intraday resistance. The real wild cards this week are Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI.

My take: this sell-off isn’t a crypto-specific problem. Stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all fell on the same day—a classic macro-driven trade. Oil prices feed into inflation, and if oil doesn’t come down, it will be harder for the Fed to ease. That means Bitcoin will remain under pressure from Treasury yields. The Fear and Greed Index dropping back to 56 suggests some speculative froth has been shaken out, which may not be a bad thing for what comes next. But for a real breakout, we first need oil prices and yields to give us some breathing room.

Do you think this is a dip before the next leg up, or just another pause on the way down? Let’s talk in the comments.

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