小恐龙说趋势

1.378 billion ADA sitting in the treasury, but only 42.6 million left to spend. Nobody can touch the ten-plus billion in between 🦖

📊 进群看每日策略

The spending cap for this Cardano budget cycle is 500 million ADA. As of October 17, 30 funding proposals have been approved, totaling 457.39 million ADA, or 91.5% of the cap.

That leaves 42.604 million ADA, worth about $9.5 million at the current price of $0.22. This amount has to last until the end of June 2027 📉

First, let's clarify how the mechanism works. The cap is called the Net Change Limit. It governs the total amount approved for spending during a cycle, not the treasury balance. This cycle began on February 13, 2026, and covers epochs 613 through 713, with each epoch lasting five days. The previous cycle's cap was 350 million ADA, so this one is about 43% higher. It's not a protocol upgrade, but an InfoAction with no technical effect, which received support representing 62.35% of staked ADA in epoch 647.

Where has the money gone? Four grants alone account for over half: 120 million ADA for AlphaGrowth's Cardano PRIME program, 62.1 million ADA for a maintenance project by Input Output and Ensurable Systems, 50 million ADA for a joint fund with Draper Dragon, and 32.9 million ADA for Cardano Vision 2026.

The other side is even more telling. This year, 29 proposals totaling 230.73 million ADA expired without getting enough votes. The most recent was for 11.787 million ADA to bring OpenZeppelin to Cardano for security work; it expired in epoch 661. Other proposals included 20 million ADA for Builder DAO, 39.8 million ADA for Tweag infrastructure, and several attempts to fund Cardano Summit 2026. None passed ⚠️

There is now just one proposal up for a vote: 22 million ADA, or about $4.9 million, for US company Toto Finance to buy COMEX Grade 1 copper cathodes, store them in a US warehouse, and mint CuTT tokens, each representing one pound of copper. The copper will be held for 18 to 24 months, and the proceeds from sales, along with any unspent funds, will be returned to the treasury within 36 months.

Breaking it down: 14.7244 million ADA for copper purchases (66.93%), 2.64 million ADA for technology and project management, 3.5339 million ADA for external operations and auditing, 441,700 ADA for execution, and 660,000 ADA for independent oversight. The proposal says it will prioritize hiring a US member firm of PwC for independent oversight, but no contract has been signed yet.

If this proposal passes, just 20.604 million ADA will remain under the cap. So the significance of this vote isn't the $4.9 million; it's that it would cut the remaining headroom in half. Voting closes at the start of epoch 668, which, at the current pace, is November 15. A decision could come at any epoch boundary before then; the next one is October 21 🧾

My take: the treasury holds about 1.378 billion ADA, up from 1.337 billion ADA in epoch 650. That shows the protocol itself isn't short of funds; what's scarce is the authorization to spend during this cycle. This design turns governance into budget politics: large grants lock up the available headroom, while small teams have to wait for the next cycle. And the 29 failed proposals show that DReps are already tapping the brakes.

The copper proposal is even more interesting. A public-chain treasury is starting to buy physical commodities, shifting the narrative from funding development to experimenting with assets. If it makes money, the treasury gets the proceeds; if it loses money, the treasury takes the hit. Using governance funds to experiment with RWAs means the risks and rewards aren't evenly balanced.

Do you think the treasury should spend 22 million ADA on copper? Let me know in the comments.

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133 accounts, RMB 500 million, an average of about RMB 3.76 million passing through each account—and the man was hiding in a Bangkok mansion 🦖

🕐 最新解读群里更新

Thai immigration police recently detained a 37-year-old Chinese man at a mansion in Bangkok. He was wanted by Chinese police on suspicion of involvement in a transnational criminal network and handling cross-border funds. The total transaction volume exceeded RMB 500 million, or nearly THB 2.5 billion ⚖️

He wasn’t using the money to trade crypto. Instead, he turned cryptocurrency and foreign exchange into a channel for moving funds. Police say he used more than 133 accounts to handle crypto assets and currency exchanges for the group, and also helped members of the network obtain visas. To avoid being found, he forged proof-of-residence documents, frequently changed his license plates, and even altered the appearance of his vehicle.

The figure of 133 accounts is more telling than the RMB 500 million. Divide 500 million by 133, and about RMB 3.76 million passed through each account on average. This wasn’t one person’s wallet—it was an entire matrix of accounts. Behind every account, there was likely someone willing to lend out their identity. The accounts belonged to others, but he was the one operating them. The money changed form as soon as it passed through 💥

My take is straightforward: cases like this aren’t about crypto itself, but the settlement layer. Here, cryptocurrency served one purpose: moving money across borders in minutes, then converting it back into local currency through foreign exchange. On-chain transfers leave a trail, but once funds enter centralized platforms and over-the-counter currency exchanges, that trail starts to break. So in the end, the case was cracked not through blockchain analysis, but because the suspect was physically in Bangkok.

For ordinary users, the real risk isn’t market volatility—it’s your account. Lending someone your bank card, collecting or sending money on someone else’s behalf, or exchanging currency for a friend may seem like small favors. From a law enforcement perspective, though, you could be one link in the chain. This time it was 133 accounts. Next time, it could be yours ⚠️

Thailand will first deal with his visa overstay, then coordinate his deportation. The investigation isn’t over; it will likely lead to the people who provided the accounts and the over-the-counter currency exchangers.

What do you think about using cryptocurrency and over-the-counter currency exchange as infrastructure for this kind of operation? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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HK$14 million, 21 people reported it, 4 arrested: a scheme passing off OTC shares as digital assets 🦖

📣 盘面异动群里喊

The Commercial Crime Bureau of the Hong Kong Police is investigating a company called BBB Group, whose Chinese name is 好好好集团 (Good Good Good Group). It claims to invest in the agarwood industry in Malaysia, while selling OTC shares and digital assets. It also promised to convert investors’ OTC shares into cryptocurrency by February 2027 at the latest.

As of today, 21 investors have reported the case, involving a total of HK$14 million—an average of about HK$667,000 per person. Police have opened a case on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud, and 4 people have been arrested.

What we should really be wary of isn’t agarwood, but the sales pitch: first, they sell you an invisible, intangible plantation; then they give you a certificate for OTC shares; finally, they say it will all be converted into digital assets in the future, pushing the payout date months down the line. There’s no on-chain address, no custodian, and no redemption terms anywhere in the process—just a timeline.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission’s website has already listed four products as suspicious investments: Malaysia Agarwood Plantation Investment, Agarwood Tree Scheme, Agarwood Potted Trees, and APT4. This means regulators had publicly warned people about the risks before the police made any arrests. Many people simply didn’t check.

My take is that we’ll see more cases like this, as the tokenization narrative gains momentum. Genuine tokenized securities have a contract address, a licensed custodian, and a clear redemption process. Fakes have only a story and a date. The test is simple: ask them to show you the on-chain contract and custody arrangements on the spot. If they can’t, they don’t have them.

HK$14 million, 21 families, 4 people—behind these figures is a very old scam in a new disguise ⚠️

Has anyone around you been persuaded by claims about converting OTC shares into digital assets? Share your thoughts in the comments 📉

I bring you the latest in crypto regulation every day—not just what’s happening in the news, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

#纳指100本周跌5.5%创18个月最大周跌幅
Nasdaq Falls 5.5% in a Week, Its Worst Drop in 18 Months—Yet He Said It Was Poised to Take Off the Same Day 🦖
Tom Lee, chairman of crypto treasury company BitMine, said on CNBC on the 16th that cryptocurrencies, chip stocks, and neocloud companies had all corrected to support levels. As long as fundamentals remain stable, he said, the risk-reward profile is quite attractive.

📈 进群一起分析行情

He didn’t say how much they might rise. But by discussing all three sectors together, his meaning was clear: fear has pushed their prices down to similar levels.

Risk assets really took a beating this week. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% for the week, its biggest weekly drop since April 2025. Brent crude hit $110 for the first time since May, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed back above 5.12%, and U.S. PPI rose to 6.3% year over year.
Three forces are moving together: oil prices drive inflation, inflation holds back rate cuts, and interest rates weigh on valuations. 📉

Crypto hasn’t been spared. Bitcoin was at $81,587, down 0.43% over 24 hours; Ethereum was at $2,435, down 0.51%; and SOL was at $104.94, down 1.35%.
The flows tell an even clearer story: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $82.3893 million yesterday, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading the way at $10.609 million in net outflows. ⚠️

Put simply, Tom Lee’s argument isn’t that he’s bullish—it’s about the odds. When fundamentals haven’t deteriorated but sentiment has pushed prices down to support levels, the downside and upside are no longer balanced.
But there’s a catch: fundamentals have to remain stable. And right now, that’s precisely what’s most uncertain. Oil at $110 and PPI at 6.3% mean the Fed still has room to tighten policy again. A 10-year yield of 5.12% continues to put pressure on high-valuation assets.

So support isn’t a floor. It’s simply a point where the odds look better. To see a real turning point, watch for two things: whether oil prices can retreat from $110, and whether ETF flows can turn positive after net outflows.
Until then, any talk of an imminent takeoff could amount to just a rebound—not a reversal.

Do you think this is the start of a rebound, or just another leg down? Let’s talk in the comments.
Every day, I’ll bring you the latest crypto market trends—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines. 👀🚀

Europe has suddenly made its position clear: the digital euro isn’t a pilot project—it’s meant to stand alongside cash 🦖

📢 ⏰ 消息群里第一时间说

At the IMF’s annual meeting on October 17, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that eurozone inflation was 3.8% in September, driven mainly by energy prices. The energy shock could keep inflation above target through the first half of 2027. In the same speech, she outlined another track: the digital euro is in the works to complement cash and support everyday payments.

The timing matters. On September 21, the ECB launched Pontes, enabling institutions to settle tokenized assets using central bank money—a direct answer to private stablecoins. Full deployment is scheduled for 2028.

On one side is wholesale finance: settling tokenized bonds and funds with central bank money. On the other is retail: using the digital euro for everyday payments. By covering both ends, the eurozone is aiming for more than just another currency. It wants to keep the foundations of payments and settlement in its own hands ⚖️

That’s the exact opposite of the US approach. The US is letting dollar stablecoins expand globally, while Europe is regulating stablecoins first. On October 15, the European Banking Authority designated Circle’s USDC as the EU’s first significant e-money token. It will come under the new regulatory framework from November 12. First, Europe is building the framework; then it will roll out its own alternative.

For ordinary holders, the most immediate impact is that there will be less room for euro stablecoins. Under the current design, the digital euro will pay no interest and have a holding limit. It’s not intended for speculation; it’s targeting payment use cases, not investment demand. So don’t expect it to trigger a crypto price rally 📉

What’s really worth watching is the spillover effect. If Europe gets wholesale settlement working, will other central banks follow suit? Once more sovereign funds move onto their own networks, private stablecoins’ share of cross-border settlement could gradually be eaten away. This won’t happen overnight—it’s a structural shift that will play out over five years.

The market’s attention is elsewhere for now: Bitcoin at $81,619, down a slight 0.6% over 24 hours; Ethereum at $2,433; and the odds of an October rate hike have fallen to around 15%. Risk appetite is recovering, but this quiet battle over payment infrastructure isn’t about crypto prices. It’s about who gets to collect transaction fees in the next cycle.

My take: in the short term, the digital euro is neither bullish nor bearish. It’s a signal that sovereign currencies are starting to take on-chain settlement seriously. The era of high-margin stablecoins will gradually be squeezed, but the overall market for on-chain assets will grow. Both things can happen at once 😅

What do you think? Once central bank digital currencies become widespread, will stablecoins be pushed to the margins—or will they become a complement to central bank systems? Let’s talk in the comments.

Every day, I bring you the latest on central banks and stablecoins around the world—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the news 👀🚀

$388 million stolen. Three weeks later, this exchange began cutting off services to some users 🦖

🕐 最新解读群里更新

On September 25, an exchange confirmed unauthorized transfers and temporarily suspended withdrawals. At the time, the widely reported loss was $178 million. Later, a security firm revised the figure to about $388 million, and the vulnerability was classified as a zero-day. This Saturday, the platform issued another announcement, saying it would terminate services for some customers in a one-time action. Funds are safe, it said. Those affected will be notified by email, in-app messages, and push notifications. Anyone who hasn't received a notice can continue using the platform as usual.

The announcement didn't name the affected users or disclose any selection criteria. It simply stressed one thing: use official channels only, and beware of phishing links and people impersonating customer support. Coming at this point, that sounds a lot like a final step in a targeted account purge: remove affected and risky accounts first, then deal with compensation and accountability.

In my view, the most important thing to remember isn't the $388 million figure itself, but how it changed. It took just a few weeks to go from $178 million to $388 million. That shows why initial estimates of losses from a hacking incident in its first three days are generally unreliable. On-chain tracing, identifying asset ownership, and tracking cross-chain transfers all take time. By the time the full picture emerges, the market has long since moved on.

The more practical point is that ordinary users face risks beyond the day of the theft. Suspended withdrawals, restricted accounts, and long customer-support queues—these secondary harms are often more frustrating than price swings. Keeping a large amount of assets on a single platform essentially hands someone else control over your options. Diversification, cold wallets, and withdrawal whitelists may seem like a hassle in ordinary times, but when things go wrong, they're lifelines.

There are two things to watch next. First, will the platform publish a compensation plan and timeline? Second, will other platforms follow suit and carry out similar account cleanups? The first will determine whether users can get their money back; the second will determine whether this crisis of trust spreads ⚠️

Let's talk in the comments: would you still dare to keep most of your holdings on an exchange? 👀

Every day, I bring you the latest in crypto security—not just what happened, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 🚀

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#celestia推出ai智能体测试链eden
Doubled in a month, up 49% in a week—this once-leading modular blockchain project is still 96% below its all-time high

🧭 群里聊方向

Celestia’s TIA is now at $0.737, up 12.6% in 24 hours, 48.9% in 7 days, and 112% in 30 days 🦖

Its market cap has climbed back to $724 million, with $315 million in 24-hour trading volume—more than 40% of its market cap. The price has also hit an 11-month high 📈

This isn’t a rally driven by just one asset. Over the past two weeks, capital has clearly rotated out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into smaller-cap assets with higher volatility. Bitcoin has been seesawing around $81,000, while Ethereum has been fluctuating around $2,400. With BTC and ETH going nowhere, investors are turning to other narratives.

On the news front, the market is digesting Celestia’s launch of Eden, an AI agent testnet. Modular blockchain plus AI agents is one of this year’s most combustible combinations. The potential of a single testnet is enough to draw in short-term traders.

But don’t overlook two figures. First, the circulating supply: 982 million tokens are already on the market, out of a total supply of 1.18 billion. That means 83% of the tokens are already in circulation, with layers of holders above waiting to break even. Second, the valuation: TIA peaked at $20.85 in 2024. Now it’s worth only a fraction of that, down 96.5% 💥

In other words, this doubling may sound impressive, but essentially it’s bounced from the floor to the doorway of the basement. It’s still a whole cycle away from its former peak.

My take: this is a combination of short covering and narrative rotation, not a fundamental reversal. Rising volume is a good sign, but we need to see the price hold above $0.80 and volume stay strong for several consecutive days before talking about a second leg. If it falls back below $0.60, this move will look more like a one-off spike—and anyone chasing the rally could be left holding the bag ⚠️

Let’s talk in the comments: do you think this TIA rally is a return of the narrative, or one last pump before a sell-off?

I bring you the latest crypto market developments every day—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

#布伦特原油自5月来首次触及110美元
Down 5.5% in a week, while oil surged past $110. Risk assets are already feeling the strain 🦖

🔭 进群看资金去哪

The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% over the week, its biggest weekly drop since the tariff turmoil of April 2025. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight straight trading days, its longest losing streak since 2008, with a decline of about 16% over that period. On the same day, Brent crude rose to around $110 a barrel, while WTI gained 3.8% in a day to $101.71. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.097% 📉

What really stands out is the AI infrastructure sector. Yields on some CoreWeave bonds briefly topped 15%, and the stock plunged 12% on Friday, putting it more than 50% below its high for the year. The market is shifting from asking whether there’s enough computing power to asking when capital spending will start paying off. Even ARK is adding to its positions in CoreWeave and Cerebras at a time like this. Some see a buying opportunity; others see a falling knife ⚠️

The knock-on effect on crypto is straightforward: higher oil prices fuel inflation expectations, long-term interest rates rise, and expectations for liquidity tighten. High-volatility assets get sold first. Bitcoin is currently at $81,496, down 0.74% over 24 hours. Ethereum is at $2,426, down 0.8%. SOL is at $104.81, down 1.03%. The declines aren’t catastrophic, but the direction is clear.

My view is that this isn’t a crypto-specific story. It’s about the AI trade being repriced. For the past two years, the market has assigned limitless value to computing power. Now it’s starting to price in the cost of financing. Bond yields at 15% tell us more than most on-chain data. As long as the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 5%, any rebound in risk assets is likely to be a recovery, not a reversal 💥

Two numbers are worth watching: whether Brent can hold above $110, and whether the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.2%. The former shapes inflation expectations; the latter determines the denominator in valuations. If neither turns around, it’ll be hard for crypto to make an independent move.

Do you think this is excess being squeezed out of the AI bubble, or crypto getting unfairly caught in the crossfire? Share your thoughts in the comments 👀

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#以太坊跌破2400usdt
$152 million flowed out of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in a single day, with $141 million coming from the same issuer 🦖

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On October 16, U.S. Eastern Time, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $82.3893 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $69.6827 million. Ethereum ETFs have now recorded net outflows for three consecutive trading days. Two BlackRock products led the outflows: IBIT saw $71.7803 million leave, and ETHA saw $69.6827 million leave. Together, that’s $141 million, or 93% of the day’s total outflows 💸

Let’s lay out the numbers. Spot Bitcoin ETFs still have total net assets of $104.290 billion, equal to 6.35% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, with cumulative historical net inflows of $56.878 billion. Spot Ethereum ETFs have total net assets of $14.946 billion, equal to 5.07% of Ethereum’s total market cap, with cumulative historical net inflows of $12.940 billion. The money isn’t moving out on a large scale; it’s just edging away from the margins.

But one detail is worth watching: nearly all of the $69.6827 million in Ethereum ETF outflows came from a single product, ETHA. That suggests redemptions aren’t happening across all issuers; instead, investors are reducing positions in the largest product. ETHA’s cumulative historical net inflows still stand at $12.494 billion, so this outflow is barely a drop in the bucket ⚠️

Now let’s look at prices. Ethereum briefly fell to $2,392.90 overnight, still about 51% below its all-time high of $4,946.05 on August 24, 2025. Bitcoin, meanwhile, held above $81,000. In other words, ETFs are seeing outflows, but prices are holding firm. The fact that both are happening at once is what’s most worth thinking about today 📉

My take: this looks more like quarter-end portfolio rebalancing than a mass institutional retreat. With net assets accounting for just 5.07% of Ethereum’s market cap, traditional capital is still only lightly invested in Ethereum. The real risk isn’t the size of a single day’s outflows, but how many consecutive days they continue. If outflows persist into next week, that would be more than rebalancing—it would signal a change in sentiment.

What do you think: are these consecutive ETF outflows a sign that institutions are pulling back, or is this just rebalancing? Share your thoughts in the comments 👀

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Every day, I bring you the latest on crypto capital flows. We don’t just cover what’s happening—we help you understand the logic and opportunities behind it 🚀

Cut ETH by 80–90% and switch to Nvidia—Sun Yuchen’s move is far more honest than simply being bullish or bearish 🦖

💬 群里一起聊行情

At an in-person conversation lasting 3.5 hours, TRON founder Sun Yuchen publicly disclosed his personal asset allocation. He hasn’t sold a single Bitcoin from his core holdings over the past year. But he reduced his Ethereum holdings by 80–90% when ETH was trading between $3,600 and $4,000. He’s now keeping only about 20% as a core position and waiting to see what happens—and he hasn’t bought back in. Most of the money from those sales went into U.S. stocks.

He made two things very clear: Bitcoin is a core holding, while Ethereum is an aggressive asset. So the aggressive part can be cut, while the core holding stays untouched.

In U.S. stocks, Nvidia is his main position—a core holding in the AI sector, held in size with no plans to reduce it. The Nasdaq 100 is also a large position. He’s slightly bearish on it in the medium term, citing crowded trades and high interest rates, but he hasn’t shorted it and is keeping his position. As for China’s A-shares, he has no holdings 💥

Most interesting is his concern about Bitcoin. He said he worries about the impact of quantum computing and AI algorithms, and believes the market hasn’t fully priced in this risk. Even so, he’s sticking with his Bitcoin holdings—he’s just moved them into cold wallets for safekeeping. Acknowledging that the risk isn’t priced in while still refusing to reduce his position feels more genuine than the many people who only know how to be bullish.

My take: this shouldn’t be read as bearishness on crypto. It’s a reshuffling of the aggressive part of his portfolio. The core holding hasn’t moved; only the aggressive allocation has. And he puts Ethereum in the aggressive bucket. That’s the opposite of the instinct most people have to treat ETH as a core holding 📊

Let’s do the math: he sold between $3,600 and $4,000, and Ethereum is now around $2,400. He really did sidestep this downturn, which was about 30%. Meanwhile, Nvidia and the Nasdaq have benefited from AI-related valuations. He’s not betting that crypto is dead—he’s moving his high-beta exposure to a different sector 📉

What’s worth watching is this: if more large holders start classifying ETH as an aggressive position rather than a core holding, Ethereum’s store-of-value narrative will weaken. This shift is more worth tracking than the price itself.

Do you consider Ethereum a core holding or an aggressive position right now? Let’s discuss in the comments.

Every day, I’ll help you follow the latest Bitcoin and crypto market trends—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀

HEX founder who raised over $1 billion detained in Istanbul; apartment contained $4 million in cash and 64 luxury watches 🦖

📈 进群看今日思路

Turkish media outlets IHA and Daily Sabah reported that on Wednesday morning, Istanbul police took Hex and PulseChain founder Richard Heart, whose real name is Richard James Schueler, into custody at a residence in the Beşiktaş district that had been under surveillance. His wife was also with him. The operation was assisted by the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), with the Financial Crimes Department involved.

The red notice was issued in December 2024 at Finland’s request, in connection with aggravated tax fraud charges. Finland is also seeking him over an assault allegation. To be clear, though, a red notice is a request for police in different countries to help locate someone; it is not an arrest warrant. He remains a suspect, and Turkish authorities say there is no decision yet on whether to extradite him to Finland. ⚖️

The inventory from the scene is even more eye-catching. One Turkish media outlet reported that police found around $4 million in cash, 64 luxury watches, as well as firearms, computers, and crypto-mining machines. Another reported $600,000 in cash and 24 watches. Neither the police nor Interpol has released an official inventory. The conflicting figures suggest the case is still at a very early stage.

This isn’t the first time he has faced legal action. In 2023, the U.S. SEC sued Heart, Hex, PulseChain, and PulseX, alleging that they offered unregistered securities and raised more than $1 billion. It also alleged that he spent at least $12 million of investors’ funds on supercars, luxury watches, and a 555-carat black diamond called The Enigma. But in February 2025, a federal judge dismissed the civil lawsuit for lack of personal jurisdiction. In April of the same year, the SEC abandoned its attempt to amend the complaint. The civil route had hit a dead end, and now a criminal tax case has taken its place.

The market has already voted with its feet. After the news broke, Hex fell 25% to 45%, while PulseChain’s PLS dropped 35% in a single day. Hex was already down to a tiny fraction of its former value, having fallen more than 99% from its 2021 peak of around $0.44. 💥

My take: the most vulnerable part of these old-school narrative coins has never been the technology—it’s the founder. The project sells personality worship, and the token’s price is anchored to that person’s credibility. Once the founder is detained, with no financial statements, no board, and no practical path to recourse, holders don’t even know who to turn to. That’s why the same enforcement news is just noise for Bitcoin, but a reason to dump everything for coins like these.

Do you think founder-personality coins like this still deserve another chance at a comeback? Let’s talk in the comments. 👀

I bring you the latest crypto-regulation stories every day—not just what happened, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines. 🚀

Google cut quantum computing errors by 40x—but only 8 out of every 100 attempts succeed. And for those old bitcoins mined by Satoshi, the keys to move them may already be lost 🦖

📊 进群看每日策略

In an experiment published in Science this week, Google’s Willow quantum chip reduced the error rate for preparing magic states by about 40x. The states that passed verification had a fidelity of 99.99%, but only about 8 out of every 100 preparations made the grade. It’s an impressive engineering milestone—but the work is far from finished.

Many people are treating this news as another “quantum computers are coming for Bitcoin” false alarm. What really matters isn’t the 40x figure, but which part of the problem it solves.

The most expensive part of a quantum attack has never been the computation—it’s the preparation. Before a machine can crack a wallet, it has to continuously produce a resource called magic states. Each one is used once and then discarded. In a paper published in March, Google estimated that a simulated attack on a public key would take about 9 minutes. During those 9 minutes, the machine would need to consume around 500,000 sufficiently reliable magic states every second.

The significance of this experiment is that it shows these resources can be produced using less hardware—not that the cost of cracking Bitcoin has suddenly been divided by 40. The March estimate already assumed that magic states could be produced efficiently, so the two figures can’t be multiplied together. This is engineering progress, not a countdown.

But engineering progress adds up. In March, Google put the threshold at fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. In September, researchers cut the workload for one key computational step in half. Step by step, that number is getting smaller.

The bigger problem is the old coins.

According to a warning cited by CoinDesk, the public keys for about 6.4 million bitcoins have already been exposed on-chain. The coins mined by Satoshi in Bitcoin’s early days used P2PK outputs, which means their public keys have been on the ledger since day one. There’s no need to wait for the owner to make a transaction. And upgrading to a quantum-resistant signature scheme requires the private-key holder to sign the migration themselves. If the private key is lost, the coins are stuck forever—and remain exposed forever.

There’s already been some movement on-chain. On October 7, an address that hadn’t moved since July 2010 transferred 100.02 bitcoins. It had been dormant for more than 16 years; the coins were worth about $8.5 million. In August, six wallets from 2011 to 2014 also moved a combined 553.59 bitcoins, worth about $40 million at the time. This doesn’t necessarily mean anyone is preparing for quantum computers, but it does show that some old coins are waking up.

My view is simple: quantum computers aren’t coming in the short term, but this is the kind of risk you can lose to by doing nothing. If the price falls, you can wait. If the signature scheme becomes obsolete, waiting won’t bring your coins back. ⚠️

Let’s talk in the comments: Do you have any holdings in your wallet that haven’t moved in more than five years? If you had to migrate to a new signature scheme today, would you know what to do first? 🔐

Every day, I bring you the latest crypto market trends—not just what’s happening, but the logic and opportunities behind the headlines 👀🚀

#solanaalpenglow升级将于10月21日激活
Nearly $97 million more in one quarter: Solana app revenue rose 48%, but nobody can verify the figures 📊

📣 盘面异动群里喊

According to Solana, application-layer revenue in the third quarter was $299.1 million, up 48% from approximately $202 million in the second quarter. The figures cover July through September, with a net increase of about $97 million for the quarter.

The problem is the lack of detail. There’s only a total—no methodology, no breakdown by app, and no independent third-party verification. The network hasn’t explained exactly what the $299.1 million includes: protocol fees, app charges, or MEV revenue. It also hasn’t said whether there’s any double counting. And to be clear, this is money earned at the application layer, not by the Solana protocol itself. The two shouldn’t be conflated.

A 48% rise looks impressive, but fees are denominated in SOL, so the dollar figure can be amplified by the token’s price. The report doesn’t separate how much came from genuine growth in on-chain activity and how much was just a conversion effect. If the increase is concentrated in two or three high-volume apps, users leaving just one app could wipe out the quarter’s growth.

On a daily basis, that works out to about $3.3 million in revenue per day in the third quarter, compared with roughly $2.2 million in the second quarter—a daily increase of $1.1 million. But this is revenue at the application layer, not profit, so it can’t be used directly to value SOL. And 48% is just quarter over quarter; the report itself acknowledges that it can’t confirm the year-over-year trend.

Meanwhile, the price hasn’t kept up at all. Solana is currently at $104.21, down 0.78% in 24 hours and 5.13% over the week, with a market cap of about $61.4 billion. Annualized, the quarter’s $299.1 million comes to roughly $1.2 billion—less than 2% of its market cap 🦖

A catalyst is just around the corner: the Alpenglow upgrade activates on October 21, targeting a reduction in finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds—about 85 times faster. But it addresses performance, not demand. The key things to watch are whether fourth-quarter revenue can top $299 million and when a breakdown by app will be provided ⚠️

My take: this looks more like a report card that deserves a discount. The growth may be real, but 48% shouldn’t be treated as a fundamental turning point just yet 📉

Do you think this 48% reflects real demand, or is it a one-off boost? Let’s discuss in the comments 👀

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For Bitcoin to fall to $10,000, buyers from 2019 would first have to panic-sell en masse—and on-chain data can’t calculate that scenario

📈 进群一起分析行情

On October 16, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju fired back on X at Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone’s bearish $10,000 prediction. He didn’t mince words: spot ETFs have brought in a cumulative $58 billion, and publicly listed Bitcoin treasury companies hold around 1.3 million BTC. Even if all those holdings were sold, the on-chain cost basis would still keep the floor near $30,000.

Let’s get the numbers straight. Bitcoin is trading at $81,540, down 0.70% over the past 24 hours, with a market cap of around $1.64 trillion. $30,000 would mean a further drop of about 63%; $10,000 would mean a further drop of about 88%. 📉

Here’s how Ju’s calculation works: at $10,000, Bitcoin’s MVRV would be around 0.2. Historically, even at its worst market bottoms, this indicator only fell to 0.6. To reach 0.2, investors who entered around 2019 would have to sell at any price. But they’ve already weathered two 75% declines. The odds of them handing over their coins at the very bottom are extremely low.

His confidence comes from two things. First, Bitcoin’s on-chain realized price is around $30,000—the average cost basis of all coins in the market. Second, the scale of the Bitcoin treasury companies: a tracking site shows that 200 publicly listed companies hold a combined total of around 1.285 million BTC, close to the 1.3 million figure he cited.

⚠️ But take one of those figures with a grain of salt: the $58 billion in cumulative ETF inflows comes from Ju’s post. The article explicitly says there’s no independent primary source to verify it, so it should be treated as his claim, not as a third-party statistic.

My take: Bitcoin’s holder base really has changed this cycle. ETFs and publicly listed companies have locked up a lot of coins in long-term accounts, giving this market a stronger base against selling pressure than in previous cycles. But cost basis is an analytical framework, not a hard floor enforced by the market. It tells you that a drop to that level would be irrational; it doesn’t tell you it can’t happen.

What’s really worth watching is the panic indicator. The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 63, still in greed territory—worlds apart from the widespread panic that a $10,000 price would require. If that number drops below 20, the calculations above will need to be revisited. 🦖

Where do you think Bitcoin’s floor is this cycle: the $30,000 cost basis, or an even lower macro-driven price? Let’s discuss in the comments.

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Ethereum has fallen back below $2,400, exactly half its all-time high—and oil prices have surged to $110 at just the wrong time 🦖

👉 进群看盘面

In the early hours of October 17, Ethereum touched an intraday low of $2,392.90. It is currently trading at $2,420.62, down 0.79% in 24 hours and 2.62% over seven days. Its market cap is $295.6 billion, with $12.4 billion in 24-hour trading volume.

At the same time, Bitcoin is at $81,545, Brent crude is nearing $110, and money is still flowing out of Ethereum ETFs 📉

Here are the key figures: Ethereum’s all-time high was $4,946.05, reached on August 24, 2025. The current price is about 51% below that level—almost exactly half its peak. Over the past 14 days, it has fallen a cumulative 9.29%.

Rate-cut expectations haven’t materialized, but oil prices have already arrived. Brent crude nearing $110 signals a renewed rise in energy-driven inflation. The market is currently betting that the Fed will hold rates steady in October, with the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at around 17%. But if oil prices stay elevated, that figure could be rewritten at any moment. The 10-year Treasury yield has already climbed back to 5.13%.

That’s what makes Ethereum’s position so awkward right now: it’s neither a safe-haven asset nor the most resilient one. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin is down 0.74%, Ethereum 0.79%, Solana 0.98%, and XRP 1.76%. The whole market is sinking together. Instead of moving into altcoins, investors are heading straight for the exits 🐋

Put simply, oil prices are the hidden brake on this rally. When energy prices rise, inflation expectations return, making it harder for interest rates to ease. And the most volatile crypto assets are precisely the ones that suffer most when rates stay high. Outflows from Ethereum ETFs are accelerating, suggesting institutions aren’t buying the dip at $2,400.

Two levels are worth watching. One is the intraday low of $2,392: a break below it would confirm that the $2,400 threshold has been lost. The other is the 24-hour high of $2,488. Only a move back above that level would erase today’s decline.

Let’s discuss in the comments: do you think this is Ethereum’s last chance to get on board, or is this just a halfway stop on the way to $2,000? 👀

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With the same $10,000, the options market prices Ethereum’s monthly volatility 37% higher than Bitcoin’s 🦖

🔎 进群看完整分析

Ethereum is currently at $2,402.96, down 1.7% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the DVOL volatility index at an options exchange puts Ethereum’s expected annualized volatility at 51.18, compared with just 37.38 for Bitcoin. Divide one by the other, and you get 1.37.

Let’s calculate the ranges first. Over the next 30 days, Ethereum is likely to trade between $2,050 and $2,756. Over the next week, the range is $2,233 to $2,573. The lower end of the weekly range is just $170 below the current price, and the upper end is only $170 above it. In other words, a single decent daily candle could cover half that distance ⚠️

DVOL isn’t a research report or one analyst’s opinion. It’s derived from actual options prices. How much you pay to buy an option, and how much you can collect by selling one, reflect what both sides think about how far prices might move—and those views are combined into a single number. So it describes the expected size of price swings, not their direction 📉

Here’s what that range looks like in practice: with the same $10,000, using this measure, you’d face about $1,470 more in volatility over a month in Ethereum, versus about $1,070 in Bitcoin. To make the volatility on both sides equal, you’d need to make your Ethereum position roughly a quarter smaller.

A more detailed signal is hidden in the strike prices. There are 295,954 open contracts expiring on October 30. The largest concentration of call options is at $2,600, with 38,043 contracts, while the largest concentration of put options is at $2,300, with 22,826 contracts. Sellers of these options have to keep hedging in the spot market. As the price nears these levels, volatility can either be amplified or dampened. That makes $2,300 to $2,600 a tighter cage than the calculated range.

Looking further out, there are 609,577 open contracts expiring on December 25. The largest concentration of call options is at $3,200, 33% above the current price. That’s not a forecast—it’s a bet someone actually paid to make.

Another easy-to-miss indicator: Ethereum is now trading at 0.029663 Bitcoin, about 10% below its September 21 monthly high of 0.03296 and only slightly above its monthly low of 0.02916 on October 15. As long as this ratio can’t get above 0.0300, Ethereum’s gains are mostly being carried by the broader market, rather than driven by strength of its own.

An old support level has also been lost. On October 12, the market was watching $2,495.93, when the price was $2,534.63. Four days later, the price is at $2,402.96, down 5.2%. Support has turned into resistance.

Put simply, the market is pricing in greater volatility for Ethereum than for Bitcoin, but Ethereum hasn’t strengthened relative to Bitcoin. It looks more like it’s being dragged along by the broader market. The key level to watch is $2,600, the biggest call strike. If Ethereum moves above it and holds, hedging flows could turn around and help push the price higher. On the other hand, if it falls below the weekly range’s lower bound of $2,233, then the range the options market is pricing in today will have proved too narrow, and volatility will likely jump.

By the way, Bitcoin was trading at around $81,008 that same day. Its own 30-day range is $72,326 to $89,690—much calmer.

Do you think Ethereum is falling along with the broader market, or is it losing its footing first? Let’s talk in the comments.

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$750 million minted out of thin air in 24 hours, all poured into the same chain—yet that chain’s token price is still falling 🦖

🏛️ ⏰ 消息群里第一时间说

In the 24 hours through the early hours of today, Circle minted around $750 million worth of USDC on Solana, pushing the chain’s native stablecoin supply to somewhere between $7.3 billion and $7.45 billion 💵

The key point is that these dollars were minted natively, not bridged over from another chain. The data comes from DefiLlama’s tracking of Solana SPL contracts. In other words, the demand is genuinely happening within the chain itself.

Most people only see the act of printing money. I’m more interested in where it’s going. Over the past year, Circle’s cumulative gross issuance on Solana has reached around $68.26 billion. In recent weeks, the pace has held steady at $3.5 billion per week. This isn’t a one-off event—it’s a pipeline that keeps adding more fuel 📈

Meanwhile, on-chain transactions on Solana have already topped 420 million this month. Usage is indeed picking up.

But add another set of data to the picture, and things get more complicated. According to CryptoTicker, funds locked on Solana have fallen by around $670 million since October 5, bringing the total down to around $5.94 billion. Over the same period, network fees dropped 15.2%—and the rate of decline in fees was even four times that of transaction volume.

On one side, dollars are lining up to get in. On the other, capital on-chain is pulling back. That’s what makes this trend genuinely intriguing.

First, the good news: for on-chain DEX market makers and lending protocols, deeper USDC pools mean tighter quotes, steadier borrowing rates, and better liquidity depth. That’s a real, tangible boost at the protocol level 🐋

Now for a reality check: having the ammo ready doesn’t mean the market is about to take off. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was around $81,605, down 1.03% over 24 hours; Solana was around $104.17, down 1.82%; and Ethereum was around $2,414.87, down 1.95% 💥

Stablecoin supply has always been a leading indicator. It tells us that someone is preparing their ammo, not that anyone has fired a shot. The signals really worth watching are whether these dollars, after entering the chain, turn into DEX trading volume, translate into lending demand, and push stablecoins’ market share higher. If supply rises but trading and lending don’t follow, it means the money has simply found a place to park on-chain—not that it’s getting ready to jump in.

I’m personally inclined to read this data as neutral to bullish. Bullish, because real dollars are indeed moving onto the chain. Neutral, because so far, they haven’t translated into price gains.

What do you think this on-chain influx is—a prelude to a market rally, or big money just grabbing a parking spot? Let’s discuss in the comments 👀

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$2.2 Billion Worth of XRP Moved to Exchanges in 30 Days, Hitting a Seven-Month High 🐋

🚨 行情变了群里说

A latest review by analysts at on-chain data platform CryptoQuant shows that whale addresses transferred a cumulative 1.669 billion XRP to an exchange over the past 30 days. At the current price of about $1.30, that’s worth nearly $2.2 billion—the highest level for this metric in seven months, and slightly above the approximately 1.65 billion XRP recorded in September. XRP is currently priced at $1.30, down 2.47% over 24 hours, with a market cap of about $82.289 billion and 24-hour trading volume of roughly $1.45 billion.

Why are whale transfers to exchanges worth watching? Because exchanges are the easiest places to sell. Large transfers directly increase the supply available to trade on the market. If some of those coins are sold, the downward pressure on price could intensify. XRP is still about 63% below its January 2018 high of $3.55. The last time XRP surged to $3.66 and set a new record was in July 2025; it has since fallen to around $1.30. In other words, most of the coins being moved onto exchanges now were bought at higher prices. ⚠️

But interpreting inflows as a direct warning of an impending sell-off is probably a mistake. The analyst also stressed that increased inflows don’t necessarily mean an immediate sale. These transfers could be portfolio reshuffling between wallets, or could be intended to access other services on an exchange. What really matters is whether net inflows are also rising, whether exchange reserves are increasing or decreasing, and whether spot trading volume actually picks up after the coins arrive. If coins are transferred in but trading volume and price don’t react, it’s more likely a transfer than a sale. 🦖

Looking at the broader market, Bitcoin is at $81,640, down slightly by 0.39% over 24 hours; Ethereum is at $2,413, down 1.46%; and SOL is at $103.95, down 1.45%. Overall, the market is moving sideways with a slight bearish tilt. XRP is underperforming, and macroeconomic headwinds remain. U.S. September PPI was up 6.3% year over year, far above expectations, while market expectations for the October 27–28 policy meeting remain unsettled. The crypto market as a whole is short on fresh buying.

My take: whale inflows viewed in isolation are a sentiment indicator, not a directional one. Moving $2.2 billion worth of coins onto exchanges shows that major holders are seriously preparing to act. But whether they’re buying or selling remains to be seen—we’ll need a second signal from net inflows and reserve data. In the short term, whether XRP can hold the $1.30 level matters more than the inflow figure itself. 📉

Do you still hold XRP? Do you think whales are getting ready to sell, or are they simply moving their coins elsewhere? Join the conversation in the comments.

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A brand-new iPhone was jailbroken live in Paris. After unplugging all the cables and rebooting, it still had the highest-level privileges 🦖

⚡ 有大动静群里说

At the Hexacon security conference in Paris on October 16, security firm Calif.io demonstrated an untethered jailbreak of iOS 27.0.1. The team rebooted the phone, unlocked it with a regular passcode, and opened an SSH session with root privileges. The terminal clearly showed the system version and an uptime of about two minutes. This is the first time anyone has managed to jailbreak the latest iPhone 18 Pro and still have the jailbreak work after a reboot.

First, let's clarify what this means. Jailbreaking removes Apple's software restrictions. Untethered means the jailbreak comes back on its own after a reboot, without needing to connect to a computer. Apple's system is known for its code signing, app sandboxing, and protected boot chain. Getting root access requires chaining together a series of vulnerabilities: first escape the sandbox, then take control of the kernel, and finally bypass Pointer Authentication, which detects whether memory has been tampered with. Surviving a reboot is even harder, because Apple verifies the boot code during startup.

What's curious is who helped find the vulnerabilities. In April this year, Calif's Thai Duong said Claude helped him analyze an iOS Safari vulnerability. In May, the company said Claude Mythos Preview helped it develop a macOS kernel exploit targeting Apple's M5 chip defenses in less than a week. Apple's iOS 27 security bulletin, published on September 14, credited Calif.io and its collaboration with Claude and Anthropic Research for two vulnerabilities that could cause crashes. But the bulletin didn't link those two vulnerabilities to this jailbreak. Calif also hasn't disclosed which vulnerabilities it used this time or released any tools. It listed only four demos, including a one-click attack on Signal and an iMessage demo, and said they would be released at an appropriate time.

Translated into crypto terms, this is more concerning than it might seem 📱 Gaining the highest-level privileges on the latest iPhone means an attacker can access the entire phone. The seed phrases and private keys for most self-custody wallets are stored in the phone's app sandbox. Once that layer of protection is breached, it's as if the wallet has no lock. Exploit chains that can break into the latest phones are exactly the kind of capability commercial spyware companies sell to governments. Apple usually can't patch vulnerabilities until the details become public. And this time, AI compressed the time needed to find vulnerabilities from months to a week ⚠️

My take: phones are becoming safes, but the key to the safe is kept inside it. The habit that really needs to change isn't getting a new phone—it's moving large holdings off your phone. Keep your seed phrase offline, and use a hardware wallet if you can 💥

Is your seed phrase stored on your phone, or have you written it down and locked it away? Share in the comments.

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