Yesterday afternoon, I discussed this with friends in the group and pointed out that the 4-hour chart for $BTC might be forming a triangle. This morning’s decline confirmed that assessment was correct. Today, let’s take another look at BTC’s lower-timeframe structure:
If the move from 87395 is a daily-level correction, then it is correcting the rally in the red section of Figure 2. The internal structure of this daily-level correction is as follows:
The decline from 87395 to 82563 was the first wave down, and the move from 82563 was a rebound against it. Last night’s 86677 was the rebound’s endpoint. The decline from 86677 is therefore on the same scale as the 87395–82563 decline: a 4-hour-level move.
The blue 2/1 Gann angle line below (79200–79800) is the dividing line. As long as price does not break below this level, once the endpoint of the decline from 86677 is found, the entire daily-level correction will be over, and the subsequent rally will be on the same scale as the red section.
If price breaks below the 2/1 Gann angle line and fails to reclaim it, the decline from 87395 will expand into a weekly-level correction of the entire rally from 57800.
In summary, the move from 87395 is currently either a daily-level correction or a weekly-level correction. The trend itself is clear.
There is a lot of disagreement right now about the rally from 57800 to 87395, and that’s a good thing. Disagreement creates opportunity; when there is none, a trend move is often nearing its end.
Ever since I first said on September 14, 2025, that BTC’s uptrend was about to end and that the ensuing bear market would last until after the third or fourth quarter of 2026, I have consistently taken the opposite side from the majority at every key turning point: 80600, 97900, 60000, 57800... Yet history has proven time and again that I was right. Will this time be the exception? I don’t think so.
If the move from 87395 is a daily-level correction, then it is correcting the rally in the red section of Figure 2. The internal structure of this daily-level correction is as follows:
The decline from 87395 to 82563 was the first wave down, and the move from 82563 was a rebound against it. Last night’s 86677 was the rebound’s endpoint. The decline from 86677 is therefore on the same scale as the 87395–82563 decline: a 4-hour-level move.
The blue 2/1 Gann angle line below (79200–79800) is the dividing line. As long as price does not break below this level, once the endpoint of the decline from 86677 is found, the entire daily-level correction will be over, and the subsequent rally will be on the same scale as the red section.
If price breaks below the 2/1 Gann angle line and fails to reclaim it, the decline from 87395 will expand into a weekly-level correction of the entire rally from 57800.
In summary, the move from 87395 is currently either a daily-level correction or a weekly-level correction. The trend itself is clear.
There is a lot of disagreement right now about the rally from 57800 to 87395, and that’s a good thing. Disagreement creates opportunity; when there is none, a trend move is often nearing its end.
Ever since I first said on September 14, 2025, that BTC’s uptrend was about to end and that the ensuing bear market would last until after the third or fourth quarter of 2026, I have consistently taken the opposite side from the majority at every key turning point: 80600, 97900, 60000, 57800... Yet history has proven time and again that I was right. Will this time be the exception? I don’t think so.