September 30, the last day of Q3: BTC is above 85,000, up 1.52%.
This morning, the August PCE data came out: core PCE monthly 0.2%, below the market’s 0.3% forecast; and annual 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%.
This is a softer inflation print than the market expected.
Where does the importance lie? Previously, three consecutive data releases (PPI 5.4%, core CPI 0.3%, and PMI 58.4) had been heating up expectations for rate hikes in October. The market had already priced in about a 64% probability of an October FOMC rate hike. Today’s PCE is soft, which directly cools that expectation—10-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped right away, and BTC rebounded to above 85,000.
This is a classic logic chain: “inflation cools → rate-hike expectations fall → rallies in interest-rate-sensitive assets,” and it was repriced within a minute.
But what’s even more worth noting is the timing.
On the final day of Q3, the PCE print was soft, and BTC then broke above 85,000—this pushed Q3’s final closing price to a more impressive level. Starting from 58,500, Q3 gained about 45%, making it the second-strongest Q3 in history. Closing out the quarter’s last day with a softer PCE gave holders a positive end-of-quarter signal and also reduced the certainty of an October rate hike.
From a fundamentals perspective, the implication of today’s data is: U.S. inflation continues in August moving closer to the 2% target, even if September services PMI is strong. If, going forward, Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI continue to come in soft, the probability that the October FOMC pauses its hikes will rise again, and the macro backdrop for Q4 will be friendlier than what was expected last week.
BTC is now around 85,000 to 85,500. Support is 83,000 to 84,000 below, while resistance is 87,300 (September high) and 96,700 (MVRV resistance—the gateway to 100,000). ETH is near 2,730, SOL at 122, and XRP at 1.54.
Q3 is closed—Q4 begins today.
What’s your first target for BTC in Q4—87,000, 90,000, or straight to 100,000? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
$ETH
This morning, the August PCE data came out: core PCE monthly 0.2%, below the market’s 0.3% forecast; and annual 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%.
This is a softer inflation print than the market expected.
Where does the importance lie? Previously, three consecutive data releases (PPI 5.4%, core CPI 0.3%, and PMI 58.4) had been heating up expectations for rate hikes in October. The market had already priced in about a 64% probability of an October FOMC rate hike. Today’s PCE is soft, which directly cools that expectation—10-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped right away, and BTC rebounded to above 85,000.
This is a classic logic chain: “inflation cools → rate-hike expectations fall → rallies in interest-rate-sensitive assets,” and it was repriced within a minute.
But what’s even more worth noting is the timing.
On the final day of Q3, the PCE print was soft, and BTC then broke above 85,000—this pushed Q3’s final closing price to a more impressive level. Starting from 58,500, Q3 gained about 45%, making it the second-strongest Q3 in history. Closing out the quarter’s last day with a softer PCE gave holders a positive end-of-quarter signal and also reduced the certainty of an October rate hike.
From a fundamentals perspective, the implication of today’s data is: U.S. inflation continues in August moving closer to the 2% target, even if September services PMI is strong. If, going forward, Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI continue to come in soft, the probability that the October FOMC pauses its hikes will rise again, and the macro backdrop for Q4 will be friendlier than what was expected last week.
BTC is now around 85,000 to 85,500. Support is 83,000 to 84,000 below, while resistance is 87,300 (September high) and 96,700 (MVRV resistance—the gateway to 100,000). ETH is near 2,730, SOL at 122, and XRP at 1.54.
Q3 is closed—Q4 begins today.
What’s your first target for BTC in Q4—87,000, 90,000, or straight to 100,000? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
$ETH
