听澜321

🌺@听澜321 sings “Let’s Go Out for a Walk”
For every version of ourselves that deserves a break

We always turn life into one long prelude,
and make ourselves into a lonely island!
But you were born to belong to the wind, to the wilderness,
to all the vastness that defies definition

Go out for a walk
The world is waiting for you
With the wind, the light, and all things growing～

#Binance #听澜321随笔 $BTC $ETH #Evernorth推迟纳斯达克上市至10月12日

#IMF IMF poured a bucket of cold water on tokenization 🤯, but honestly, it’s all just plain facts. Because the data is right there: tokenized buybacks are in the range of tens of billions per day, while the traditional buyback market is only 1.3 trillion per day. The gap isn’t small at all.

What’s interesting, though, is that retail investors really do “buy into” 24-hour trading and odd-lot buying/selling. How so?

Let me put it in human terms:
#IMF just released a report, and the core message is basically one sentence: the tokenized market is growing fast, but the pool is too small—and everything is walled off, like isolated compartments. It’s basically a “small pond.”

The numbers are a bit painful:
Tokenized buybacks average 300–350 billion USD per day,
and tokenized stocks, funds, etc. combined are only 65 billion USD,
compare that to: the US traditional buyback market is 13 trillion USD per day, and global capital market assets are 300 trillion USD 🤯

So it means tokenization still can’t even be counted as a fraction of traditional finance.

My take: fragmentation is actually an opportunity.

IMF talks about “fragmentation” as a problem—things can’t connect between platforms, liquidity is split, and network effects don’t really form.

But look at it another way:
Fragmentation = early stage. In any emerging market’s early days, it’s basically a mess everywhere. DeFi in 2017 was also a bunch of islands—later, Uniswap gathered liquidity. Tokenization now lacks exactly that kind of “aggregation layer.”

So don’t be scared by the “small scale.” 65 billion is tiny by traditional finance standards—but on-chain, it’s already proof that it can work. Going from 0 to 65 billion is hard; going from 65 billion to 650 billion—the path is already clear.

But let me also talk about the risks...
IMF’s warning isn’t without reason: once the scale gets bigger, the usual problems from traditional finance—sell-offs, bank runs/raids, contagion—will show up too. And because blockchain moves faster, they could hit even harder.

24/7 trading is great, but without circuit breakers and without market-closure buffers, when something goes wrong, you don’t even get a chance to catch your breath.

One last note: on the surface, this IMF report is “pouring cold water,” but in reality it’s “pointing the way.” It explains the issues clearly: law, regulation, interoperability, and settlement assets.

Whichever of these gets solved, whoever solves them gets to enjoy the next wave of dividends.
What do you think about this report? Feel free to leave a comment 😊
#IMF称代币化市场仍小且碎片化

I’ve finished reading the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting.
To put it simply, it boils down to two words: wait and see 😂

Here’s a quick translation: Most officials think they’ll need to raise rates once more this year, but they’ll hold steady in October. They’re not in a hurry to keep hiking back-to-back and want to look at more data. It’s like they’re still holding the “gun,” but aren’t pulling the trigger just yet 😂

Why is that? Because the “number two” and “number three” bigwigs (Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams) had already signaled that there was no rush to hike and that they had time to assess the situation. The market bought it, too: the odds of an October rate hike fell from around 70% to around 20%～

Some people might ask: Is today’s crypto-market drop related to these “meeting minutes”?
I think it’s somewhat related, but I’d say they were only an “accomplice” 😂

I think the immediate trigger was the surge in U.S. Treasury yields～
The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5.36% intraday, while the 30-year yield hit 5.73%—both at their highest levels in 20 years. When bond yields rise, money flows out of high-risk assets and into bonds. Assets like $BTC , which are especially sensitive to liquidity, take the first hit～

The most brutal blow came from “leveraged liquidations”～
Over the past 24 hours, around $550 million to $690 million worth of positions were liquidated in the crypto market, more than 92% of them long positions.

So who was the “biggest victim” in this wave? That would definitely be $ETH .
ETH liquidations totaled $250 million, the most of any coin, with 94% of those being long positions. BTC liquidations totaled $185 million, and longs also accounted for 94%. The share of long positions liquidated in XRP and $SOL was over 96%. What does that tell us? That the market was too crowded with bulls, all crammed onto one side of the boat 😂

Personally, I think:
This “no rush” stance isn’t dovish—it’s about managing the pace. Inflation is still hovering above 3%, and AI investment is pushing up costs, so the Fed can’t really let up. Hiking rates consecutively could wreck the economy, so they’re spacing out the moves and waiting for more data before they “act”～
Also, macro factors were just the backdrop for this drop; leverage was the main cause.
But liquidations aren’t necessarily a bad thing. They’ve cleared out weak hands and flushed out leverage, which could actually set the stage for the next wave of investors to start fresh～

So don’t rush to buy the dip just yet—wait for a signal.
Wait for trading volume to shrink, prices to stop making new lows, and the long/short ratio to return to normal～

What do you think? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments 🥳
#美联储纪要聚焦10月暂停加息 #比特币跌破8.4万美元

Zcash spot ETF crashed 😂 Net outflows of $93.56 million in a single week.

Grayscale’s ZCSH, which was still the “favorite child of the month” in September and had attracted $271 million, once held 3.5% of the total supply—$ZEC . But last week it completely “changed its face”: money turned around and ran. Its assets under management fell from a peak of $980 million to $751 million.

Simply put, it’s because it rallied too hard.
$ZEC surged 254% in Q3. After institutions have made enough, it’s natural to take profits—that’s a classic profit-taking move, and it’s normal. The key is to see whether redemptions narrow afterward and whether the price can hold steady. ETF launches are milestones by themselves; a healthy market is one where capital flows in and out.

Back at the start of the year, CZ publicly stated that the lack of on-chain privacy is the “missing link” for the mainstream adoption of crypto payments,
and also called for privacy features to evolve faster.

Personally, I think this outflow doesn’t change the long-term logic of the privacy track. Demand for privacy won’t disappear; it’s just being accepted by Wall Street in a more compliant form.

What other thoughts do you have? Feel free to leave a comment in the section below 🥳

#Zcash现货ETF首现周度净流出9360万美元