After the weekend, the market took a hard blow. Trump refused to restart the Iran Strait’s peace plan, and Brent crude jumped 1.5% at the open; risk assets were collectively on edge.
A few details are especially interesting:
Iran’s foreign minister declared that it is "fully prepared to resume war," and also seized a U.S. unmanned underwater vehicle in the strait. Trump didn’t mince words either—he directly referred to the strait as the "Trump Strait," implying that another move could be made before the midterm elections. Judging by this, don’t expect any easing in the short term.
Even more surreal was the mocking from Iran’s parliamentary speaker: congratulations to the U.S. on a 5.1% decade-long Treasury yield—we will make the U.S. relive the 1970s—high oil prices, diesel shortages (Trump is seriously considering a diesel export ban), and high interest rates. This stagflation script is getting more and more like the real thing.
Pressure on $BTC : with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.1%, liquidity is the key. Bessent is also urging the Fed to keep an open attitude toward inflation, and rate-cut expectations are again hanging in the balance.
My take: $BTC in the short run will track oil-price sentiment. If the U.S.-Iran New York talks this week fail, volatility will jump straight to the max. Keep your position sizing under control—don’t get carried away.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC #地缘政治 #宏观经济 #加密货币
A few details are especially interesting:
Iran’s foreign minister declared that it is "fully prepared to resume war," and also seized a U.S. unmanned underwater vehicle in the strait. Trump didn’t mince words either—he directly referred to the strait as the "Trump Strait," implying that another move could be made before the midterm elections. Judging by this, don’t expect any easing in the short term.
Even more surreal was the mocking from Iran’s parliamentary speaker: congratulations to the U.S. on a 5.1% decade-long Treasury yield—we will make the U.S. relive the 1970s—high oil prices, diesel shortages (Trump is seriously considering a diesel export ban), and high interest rates. This stagflation script is getting more and more like the real thing.
Pressure on $BTC : with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.1%, liquidity is the key. Bessent is also urging the Fed to keep an open attitude toward inflation, and rate-cut expectations are again hanging in the balance.
My take: $BTC in the short run will track oil-price sentiment. If the U.S.-Iran New York talks this week fail, volatility will jump straight to the max. Keep your position sizing under control—don’t get carried away.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC #地缘政治 #宏观经济 #加密货币