This is Fidelity’s Bitcoin power-law chart (as of 2026/9/20). Each peak is higher than the last: $1,137, $19,042, $64,337, $122,765—current price $81,218. The teal band is the power-law trend zone, and it also draws a horizontal “line in the sand: $60k.” Based on the copy, the bull market isn’t over as long as you hold the $60k level, with a 2029 target of $300k.
Key features of the power-law model: it fits the past beautifully—always. It connects historical points into a straight line and then extrapolates outward. Whether the price follows the power law is not a theorem, but an assumption. That line leading to $300k is simply an extension of the trend band, not a prediction.
What’s even more worth looking at is the row below: historical drawdowns range from -57% to -102%, and the most recent segment is marked at -71%. Under this model, dropping 70–80% is still considered normal variation—so while it gives you a target price, it also leaves enormous room for interpretation.
You can look at the chart. The lines are drawn by someone else; the target price is extrapolated by the model. Don’t take the conclusion as proof.
Key features of the power-law model: it fits the past beautifully—always. It connects historical points into a straight line and then extrapolates outward. Whether the price follows the power law is not a theorem, but an assumption. That line leading to $300k is simply an extension of the trend band, not a prediction.
What’s even more worth looking at is the row below: historical drawdowns range from -57% to -102%, and the most recent segment is marked at -71%. Under this model, dropping 70–80% is still considered normal variation—so while it gives you a target price, it also leaves enormous room for interpretation.
You can look at the chart. The lines are drawn by someone else; the target price is extrapolated by the model. Don’t take the conclusion as proof.