$INTW has risen intraday by nearly 11%, yet the funding rate is negative. Price is 36.05, 24-hour price increase is 10.957%, and the funding rate over the same period is -0.00063442. Open interest is 109,076.76. During the rally, shorts are paying longs—this is a classic short squeeze structure.
The mechanism is very clear: price is pushed up to squeeze shorts, and the negative funding rate means shorts’ position costs keep increasing. If they are forced to close, it will further push the price up. Open interest hasn’t fallen significantly, which suggests shorts haven’t withdrawn in large numbers yet—the squeeze may not be over. Right now, shorts are paying longs every day to hold on, and all the pressure is on them.
The strongest counter-evidence is that the price is rising while the funding rate turns positive. If $INTW continues to move higher, but the rate flips from negative to positive, that would indicate longs are starting to chase price and enter. Financing costs would then begin accumulating on the long side, and the current logic would change.
The second-order effects are simple: shorts either stop out or add margin, while longs can hold positions for free and even receive funding. In this structure, liquidity moves from stop-out shorts into the longs’ pockets.
If the price drops below 36.05 and the funding rate turns positive, my judgment will fail. The current price is the first level to watch for confirmation.
As for actions, I will continue to hold or buy on dips, but I will never chase.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #INTW
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
The mechanism is very clear: price is pushed up to squeeze shorts, and the negative funding rate means shorts’ position costs keep increasing. If they are forced to close, it will further push the price up. Open interest hasn’t fallen significantly, which suggests shorts haven’t withdrawn in large numbers yet—the squeeze may not be over. Right now, shorts are paying longs every day to hold on, and all the pressure is on them.
The strongest counter-evidence is that the price is rising while the funding rate turns positive. If $INTW continues to move higher, but the rate flips from negative to positive, that would indicate longs are starting to chase price and enter. Financing costs would then begin accumulating on the long side, and the current logic would change.
The second-order effects are simple: shorts either stop out or add margin, while longs can hold positions for free and even receive funding. In this structure, liquidity moves from stop-out shorts into the longs’ pockets.
If the price drops below 36.05 and the funding rate turns positive, my judgment will fail. The current price is the first level to watch for confirmation.
As for actions, I will continue to hold or buy on dips, but I will never chase.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #INTW
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?