$AXTI This near 10% bearish candle—funding rates staying completely flat at zero, and open interest still above 80,000 lots—tells a simple story when those three numbers are placed together: the sell pressure in on-chain U.S. stocks this time was not relieved by liquidating long positions through leverage.
From a macro perspective, the price fell nearly 10% in a single day, yet the funding rate did not drop into negative territory. This suggests that the longs betting on a rise did not all cluster into panic exits, and the shorts didn’t seize the moment to aggressively add and charge rent. With open interest staying steady, it implies the total participating capital didn’t make a large-scale retreat simply because the price dropped. This combination is usually not just internal market tug-of-war; it more resembles what happens when external macro risk appetite abruptly shifts—those holding with a wait-and-see stance sell first, while leveraged positions remain inactive because their cost is extremely low (zero funding).
My view is that the current movement of $AXTI reflects the tightening of expectations for macro liquidity mapped onto micro assets. When the market develops new worries about the rate path, growth stocks or concept stocks that are sensitive to liquidity are often hit first. On-chain U.S. stock contracts may react even more directly due to trading hours and mechanism differences. Funding at zero precisely indicates that both sides are in a kind of waiting state: longs lack confidence to add and push funding higher, and shorts also don’t have the conviction to massively short from current levels. The market is waiting for a clearer macro signal.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: if tonight or tomorrow key U.S. economic data comes out unexpectedly strong—showing economic resilience far beyond expectations—then the market’s “higher for longer” rate expectations could strengthen again, and risk assets might face another round of selling. In that case, the drawdown of $AXTI could deepen, and the funding rate may turn negative, ushering in a short-dominant mode. My current view is that if the U.S. core PCE data unexpectedly rebounds, my thesis would fail.
Next we need to see how long this transmission of macro sentiment lasts. If U.S. stock indexes continue to face pressure, the liquidity premium in on-chain U.S. stock contracts may narrow. Long positions with extremely low funding costs may also be forced to reduce exposure over time due to the passage of time.
As for $AXTI , my actions are very clear. The current price is around 69.94. If over the next 24 hours the funding rate remains zero and the price cannot reclaim the 70.5 level, I will cut my position in half. On the other hand, if macro data restores market sentiment, the price rebounds, and the funding rate turns positive, I will choose to hold and wait.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #AXTI
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?
From a macro perspective, the price fell nearly 10% in a single day, yet the funding rate did not drop into negative territory. This suggests that the longs betting on a rise did not all cluster into panic exits, and the shorts didn’t seize the moment to aggressively add and charge rent. With open interest staying steady, it implies the total participating capital didn’t make a large-scale retreat simply because the price dropped. This combination is usually not just internal market tug-of-war; it more resembles what happens when external macro risk appetite abruptly shifts—those holding with a wait-and-see stance sell first, while leveraged positions remain inactive because their cost is extremely low (zero funding).
My view is that the current movement of $AXTI reflects the tightening of expectations for macro liquidity mapped onto micro assets. When the market develops new worries about the rate path, growth stocks or concept stocks that are sensitive to liquidity are often hit first. On-chain U.S. stock contracts may react even more directly due to trading hours and mechanism differences. Funding at zero precisely indicates that both sides are in a kind of waiting state: longs lack confidence to add and push funding higher, and shorts also don’t have the conviction to massively short from current levels. The market is waiting for a clearer macro signal.
The strongest counter-evidence is this: if tonight or tomorrow key U.S. economic data comes out unexpectedly strong—showing economic resilience far beyond expectations—then the market’s “higher for longer” rate expectations could strengthen again, and risk assets might face another round of selling. In that case, the drawdown of $AXTI could deepen, and the funding rate may turn negative, ushering in a short-dominant mode. My current view is that if the U.S. core PCE data unexpectedly rebounds, my thesis would fail.
Next we need to see how long this transmission of macro sentiment lasts. If U.S. stock indexes continue to face pressure, the liquidity premium in on-chain U.S. stock contracts may narrow. Long positions with extremely low funding costs may also be forced to reduce exposure over time due to the passage of time.
As for $AXTI , my actions are very clear. The current price is around 69.94. If over the next 24 hours the funding rate remains zero and the price cannot reclaim the 70.5 level, I will cut my position in half. On the other hand, if macro data restores market sentiment, the price rebounds, and the funding rate turns positive, I will choose to hold and wait.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #AXTI
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?