Price $AXTI 24 has fallen nearly 10% in the last 24 hours, with a price of 69.94, a funding rate of zero, and 80,803 open contracts. The price drop without a change in the funding rate suggests this isn't a typical short squeeze, but rather a proactive exit of long positions.
A zero funding rate means the forces of long and short positions are temporarily balanced at the funding level; neither side is paying a premium for their positions. Combined with the significant price drop, the most direct explanation is that long positions are closing out to stop losses or take profits, rather than being overwhelmed by concentrated short selling pressure. If the decline were driven by short sellers, the funding rate would often quickly turn negative, as bearish sentiment would increase the funding costs for short sellers. The current zero rate indicates that the weight of long position closing may outweigh the pressure from new short positions in the driving force of the decline.
However, one signal isn't enough. The 80,000 open contracts are not insignificant. The fact that the OI (Open Interest Index) hasn't plummeted despite the significant price drop suggests that the position structure hasn't reached the stage of panic selling. A significant amount of capital in the market is either remaining inactive or averaging down. These two possibilities are currently indistinguishable, but both point to one fact: the current decline has not triggered a stampede-like chain reaction.
The strongest counter-evidence would be a rapid shift of funding rates into negative territory while prices continue to fall. That would mean short-selling forces are gathering strength, the market's bearish consensus is strengthening, and current assessments would become invalid. I won't speculate on specific price levels, but a decisive breach of the $70 mark could accelerate the exit of long positions.
Therefore, my action is clear: observe. I will not participate in the long-short game until prices stabilize and funding rates provide a clear directional signal. Aggressive traders betting on a rebound after long positions are exhausted must assume prices stabilize above $70 and funding rates turn positive. A prudent strategy is to wait for the market to choose its direction. Avoid any attempts to guess the bottom during a decline; the current structure does not support bottom-fishing.
The market thinks this is a short-selling push, but I see a long-selling retreat. If the funding rate remains near the zero line for the next two trading days, but the price does not fall sharply, this judgment may be confirmed.
Trading Tags: #TradFi #链上美股 #AXTI
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?
A zero funding rate means the forces of long and short positions are temporarily balanced at the funding level; neither side is paying a premium for their positions. Combined with the significant price drop, the most direct explanation is that long positions are closing out to stop losses or take profits, rather than being overwhelmed by concentrated short selling pressure. If the decline were driven by short sellers, the funding rate would often quickly turn negative, as bearish sentiment would increase the funding costs for short sellers. The current zero rate indicates that the weight of long position closing may outweigh the pressure from new short positions in the driving force of the decline.
However, one signal isn't enough. The 80,000 open contracts are not insignificant. The fact that the OI (Open Interest Index) hasn't plummeted despite the significant price drop suggests that the position structure hasn't reached the stage of panic selling. A significant amount of capital in the market is either remaining inactive or averaging down. These two possibilities are currently indistinguishable, but both point to one fact: the current decline has not triggered a stampede-like chain reaction.
The strongest counter-evidence would be a rapid shift of funding rates into negative territory while prices continue to fall. That would mean short-selling forces are gathering strength, the market's bearish consensus is strengthening, and current assessments would become invalid. I won't speculate on specific price levels, but a decisive breach of the $70 mark could accelerate the exit of long positions.
Therefore, my action is clear: observe. I will not participate in the long-short game until prices stabilize and funding rates provide a clear directional signal. Aggressive traders betting on a rebound after long positions are exhausted must assume prices stabilize above $70 and funding rates turn positive. A prudent strategy is to wait for the market to choose its direction. Avoid any attempts to guess the bottom during a decline; the current structure does not support bottom-fishing.
The market thinks this is a short-selling push, but I see a long-selling retreat. If the funding rate remains near the zero line for the next two trading days, but the price does not fall sharply, this judgment may be confirmed.
Trading Tags: #TradFi #链上美股 #AXTI
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?