This drop in AVAX doesn’t really look like panic selling and dumping—it looks more like the longs quietly pulled out first.
The 15m timeframe is down 1.15%, and the volume hit 1.72x. Price has broken below the lower band of the last 20 5m candles. But the key thing to notice is OI: 15m -0.71%, 1h -1.90%, with a notional change of -3.91M. Price is down while open interest is also falling. This isn’t fresh shorts entering—it’s older longs de-leveraging, cutting losses, and reducing positions.
The active trade ratio is down -18.9%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.68, and sell pressure does seem to be more aggressive. But overall it looks more like position clearing than a trend-driven short.
The abnormal percentile is 87.3%, ranking #23 in the full pool, notional change #7, and it has continued across multiple consecutive periods. In this kind of structure, I’d wait for OI to stop falling and see whether there’s a rebound opportunity, rather than chasing shorts right now.
The 15m timeframe is down 1.15%, and the volume hit 1.72x. Price has broken below the lower band of the last 20 5m candles. But the key thing to notice is OI: 15m -0.71%, 1h -1.90%, with a notional change of -3.91M. Price is down while open interest is also falling. This isn’t fresh shorts entering—it’s older longs de-leveraging, cutting losses, and reducing positions.
The active trade ratio is down -18.9%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.68, and sell pressure does seem to be more aggressive. But overall it looks more like position clearing than a trend-driven short.
The abnormal percentile is 87.3%, ranking #23 in the full pool, notional change #7, and it has continued across multiple consecutive periods. In this kind of structure, I’d wait for OI to stop falling and see whether there’s a rebound opportunity, rather than chasing shorts right now.
