$XPL This drop is a bit brutal—on the 15m chart it’s already down -1.18%. Trading volume surged to 1.53x, with volatility Z at 3.39. The market is clearly not calm.
Looking closely at the structure, it resembles long-side deleveraging more than anything—OI on both the 15m and 1h is falling. Notional has shrunk by over 500k U. Active trading is down -46.5%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.36. Sell pressure is dominant, but positions are also being pulled back—there’s a strong “stop-loss and contraction” vibe.
The closing price has already broken below the lower bound of the last ~20 5m K-bars. The funding rate is still in the high percentile recently. OI’s percentile is abnormal at 95%, and the anomaly is #11 across the whole pool. This signal has been continuing across multiple consecutive cycles, and depth has also confirmed it—it’s not just a single wick.
Don’t rush to pick up longs in a deleveraging setup like this. Wait until the OI stabilizes before deciding.
Looking closely at the structure, it resembles long-side deleveraging more than anything—OI on both the 15m and 1h is falling. Notional has shrunk by over 500k U. Active trading is down -46.5%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.36. Sell pressure is dominant, but positions are also being pulled back—there’s a strong “stop-loss and contraction” vibe.
The closing price has already broken below the lower bound of the last ~20 5m K-bars. The funding rate is still in the high percentile recently. OI’s percentile is abnormal at 95%, and the anomaly is #11 across the whole pool. This signal has been continuing across multiple consecutive cycles, and depth has also confirmed it—it’s not just a single wick.
Don’t rush to pick up longs in a deleveraging setup like this. Wait until the OI stabilizes before deciding.