$FLNC keep going for a day 20% to 7.52, but the funding rate is still positive at 0.000286. This says a lot.
The moment political and military tensions arise, the first thing that gets sold off on-chain among US stock contracts are these kinds of small caps. While the price is crashing, the funding rate is still positive—meaning the longs are still holding on and paying the shorts. This is a very dangerous signal. It suggests that the sell pressure from forced liquidations hasn’t fully worked itself out yet, and the painful long positions are still piled up inside.
Now, the people shorting are actually being paid, while the longs’ defensive area is around the 7.52 level I mentioned. The strongest counter-evidence is: if tomorrow there’s news that eases tensions, these forced-sell longs will quickly refill, causing a sharp upward spike in the short term.
But this is not the time to bottom-pick. The second-order effect is that once the 7.52 level can’t hold, the longs’ chain liquidations will accelerate the selloff.
My view is to short against the consensus. Specifically: enter a short at the current price, 2x leverage, stop-loss at 8.2, take-profit at 6.8, with position size at 20%. The invalidation condition for this trade is if price breaks above 8.2 on increased volume and holds steady for an hour—that would mean political risk is being digested quickly, and I will immediately back out.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #FLNC
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
The moment political and military tensions arise, the first thing that gets sold off on-chain among US stock contracts are these kinds of small caps. While the price is crashing, the funding rate is still positive—meaning the longs are still holding on and paying the shorts. This is a very dangerous signal. It suggests that the sell pressure from forced liquidations hasn’t fully worked itself out yet, and the painful long positions are still piled up inside.
Now, the people shorting are actually being paid, while the longs’ defensive area is around the 7.52 level I mentioned. The strongest counter-evidence is: if tomorrow there’s news that eases tensions, these forced-sell longs will quickly refill, causing a sharp upward spike in the short term.
But this is not the time to bottom-pick. The second-order effect is that once the 7.52 level can’t hold, the longs’ chain liquidations will accelerate the selloff.
My view is to short against the consensus. Specifically: enter a short at the current price, 2x leverage, stop-loss at 8.2, take-profit at 6.8, with position size at 20%. The invalidation condition for this trade is if price breaks above 8.2 on increased volume and holds steady for an hour—that would mean political risk is being digested quickly, and I will immediately back out.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #FLNC
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?