CPI is out, and there is a lot more inside the number than just 3.4%.
On September 11, the US August CPI showed prices rising 0.4% month over month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core CPI, which removes food and energy, increased 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY.
The biggest pressure came from energy. Gasoline jumped 3.9% in August, while other motor fuels rose 9.6%. Food prices were much calmer, increasing 0.1%.
The important part is the core reading. Markets were looking for around 0.2% MoM, but the actual number came in at 0.3%. That means inflation is not cooling as quickly as the Fed would like.
Now the next major date is September 15–16, when the Fed meets. After this CPI report, expectations for a rate hike increased sharply.
For me, CPI is not just about one number. The real question is whether inflation can move closer to the Fed’s 2% target without hurting growth.
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路人1688luren
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$BTC $CL $WLD Latest news Iran is about to declare a “no-go zone”! Oil prices have risen, and the Strait of Hormuz is turning into the world’s most dangerous powder keg! Right after Trump said he would “fully control the strait,” Iran hit back immediately—Revolutionary Guards released new footage, directly calling the U.S. escort “pure lies.”
Iran issued a tough warning: in the coming days, it will officially establish a “no-go zone” in the Strait of Hormuz, and any suspicious activity will become a target for attack. The Revolutionary Guards also for the first time released previously undisclosed surveillance footage showing operations against violating vessels—“The so-called support and escort by the United States are nothing but lies,” Brent crude has edged toward $97, and Goldman Sachs has sounded the highest-level alarm: if the conflict escalates, oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel. Shipping traffic has fallen to the lowest level since May—only two ships passed on Saturday. The situation escalated significantly over the weekend: the U.S. military attacked three Iranian oil tankers, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards then struck three oil tankers on “unauthorized routes” and three U.S. ships. A maritime intelligence agency rated the risk of Iran-related vessels as “extreme,” while the risk to U.S.-related shipping has “risen significantly.”
Trump is anxious because oil prices are votes. With midterm elections approaching, the average price of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. has hit a September record—$4.15 per gallon. Diesel has climbed even higher to $5.88.
Next, we’ll see how this drama unfolds. Once the restriction order takes effect, breaching $100 for oil could be a matter of minutes. The bigger the storm, the more chaotic global assets will become. 🌊🐾#IranWillSetRestrictionsOnStraitOfHormuz #美伊互袭油轮冲突升级
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