比特虎-Action

📊【2026.9.17 BitHu Record Post】The Fed’s first rate hike in three years is complete—accumulation plan officially begins

Long time no post. With the Fed having completed its first rate hike in three years last night, I feel it’s necessary to record my mental journey at this moment.

This rate-hike path has been nothing short of a winding road. The number of times probabilities swung back and forth between a 50% chance of hiking and a 50% chance of not hiking was about 10 times. That means market disagreement is huge—but disagreement is also one of the sources of profit.

1. From a time perspective:
The 6W in February can’t really be called the bottom area. But by the end of the third quarter, the price is still holding around 76K. It’s almost certain that 58K was the bottom of this bull market—only the final few weeks of confirmation are left.

2. From a pattern perspective:
The weekly K-line structure clearly shows: since the ATH to 58K, the five-wave structure is similar to the way ETH moved from its listing to its ATH. The reversal wave A has already completed, and we are currently in the corrective wave B structure. There is also an expectation that a head-and-shoulders bottom at the weekly-to-monthly level is forming. Therefore, any further pullbacks are right-side averaging-in opportunities—this is a rare right-side chance where you can profit from a bull market “turning back.”

3. From a positioning/chips perspective:
Looking at the VPVR, it’s clear that 63K–67K forms a huge-volume double-peak bottom. After the rapid weekly-level historical surge in late August, it suggests the main players have already completed most of their accumulation. Going forward, it’s unlikely they will let the price return near their cost basis. This also further verifies that any upcoming pullback or consolidation action can be considered an opportunity to “pick up the bus” before the bull market starts.

🎯 Personal execution:
I have already completed an accumulation action for a half position, with an average cost around 75K. Honestly, it’s rather unskilled—mainly because the left-side dip-buying opportunities exceeded expectations by a lot. It was basically a helpless move. Hopefully, the Q4 rate-hike cycle will provide more averaging-in opportunities for the remaining position.

Forget the fantasies of the left side; accept the reality of the right side. The accumulation plan is officially underway. See you at the peak of the bull market!! 76300✊✊

— 2026.9.17

📊【2026.10.1 Bit Hu Thoughts Record】

Suddenly I thought of a question about the future of BTC:
As long as it’s a company, government, individual, family, fund, etc. whose U.S. funding can be traced—if BTC holdings exceed 50% of the current circulating supply, that will definitely trigger a phase change. At that point, pricing power will completely fall into the hands of the U.S. Then, they would really pull off a “debt-cancellation/cleansing” of BTC.

It doesn’t feel like that time will be too far off. If we remove Satoshi Nakamoto’s roughly 1.1 million, plus the portions that have been lost and can’t be found, and the part that hasn’t moved for over 10 years—say roughly 6 million—then the effective circulating supply is only about 13.9 million. Half of that is about 6.95 million.

The U.S. companies, ETFs, and governments that are currently traceable have about 3 million BTC. The shortfall is about 3.95 million. If we estimate that, in recent years, the number of BTC held by traceable U.S. entities net increases by about 250,000 to 400,000 coins per year, then filling the 3.95 million gap would take roughly 10 to 16 years—that is, around 2036 to 2042.

It’s like a company where a minority shareholder spends a huge amount of time and effort to fight for control—eventually pushing their stake above 50% and becoming the absolute controlling shareholder. They would definitely do something beneficial to themselves.

From this angle, #BTC future prospects really look promising ✊✊84000

——2026.10.1

📊【September 22, 2026 Bit Hu’s Thinking Notes】

It’s been 7 years since I entered the space. The more time passes, the more I feel the four-year cycle pattern of the big pie (BTC) is indeed slowly losing its effectiveness due to marginal effects. Instead, the cycle seems to be showing up more and more in micro-strategy (MicroStrategy).

Looking back at the early-year judgment I made for #MSTR : at that time I expected the bottom range to be around 80–100. It was truly an unintentional planting of seeds that turned out well. Right as the FUD reached its peak—under all sorts of de-anchoring, blow-up rumors, and expectations like “selling coins still earns interest”—the absolute lowest kill point hit 81.81. The current price is 168.5, which is more than double.

Although I had planned to buy MicroStrategy as early as early March, by now in September I’ve only bought a small amount for a starter position at around 100. Executing all-in is truly difficult, of course, because of psychological path dependence (BTC).

Investment is definitely anti-human. During crises, there are opportunities within the danger. The more intense the FUD is, and as long as there hasn’t been systemic risk in the fundamentals, the more you have to dare to buy. Take my own holdings as an example.

In the recent period, I participated in #CRCL. Even Morgan Stanley lowered its target price to 38 and there was all kinds of criticism and ridicule. Back then, it had been hovering around a average price of about 60 for a long time.

Further back, in late 2022 and early 2023, there was #BNB. There were tons of FUD about Binance, with people cursing BNB and CZ. Back then, the average price had stayed around 250 for a long time.

Now looking back, both ended up being excellent long-term entry points.

Everything has two sides. Even though the cycle pattern is starting to fail, going forward the maximum drawdown is already assumed at the “halving” extreme expectation. So for crypto players, the psychological pressure from holding positions will be much, much lower.

Finally, let me restate my view on MicroStrategy from March: Right now, MicroStrategy is still roughly in the early stage of the 2nd/3rd round of BTC from around 2018—meaning it gives latercomers a chance to participate in the early BTC stage.

This round is extremely friendly to new players. But in the first half of a bull market, the path of holding won’t be smooth sailing to get the results. For those who didn’t accumulate enough of the position they wanted, it’s not too late to mend the gap and make up for it ✊85300

The final recap summary is👇：

Action begins—skip the plan on the left, and follow the plan on the right to execute Plan B. The current best strategy is that next, we split the funds into two parts according to the probability of reaching the bottom.

One part uses the known 58k as the positioning for this round’s bear-market bottom. The other part continues to wait for confirmation from the time signals, but this portion of the position should, as subsequent conditions no longer break below 58k, gradually shift into the first part. Last week, at the 7W+ level, we passively bought a little; the rest is left to time.

That’s how investing works—plans can never keep up with changes. This is the cost of wanting to heavily buy in the bottom area. It’s a penalty for being off on the strategy. Don’t overthink or be anxious about what has already happened. Since new signals are given, follow the new signals and set a new plan. If you still remain indifferent, then it really is stubbornness.

Next, we’ll reduce the posting frequency. Focus on trading based on market data. After this, we’ll switch to posting irregularly—after fully allocating, we’ll post a record. There may be some small detours along the way of holding coins, but we still have to believe in the big coin, and believe that good things are about to happen!

Brothers, if you have any thoughts you want to discuss, see you in the comments!! 77200✊✊

5. Weekly Structure Perspective:

At the drawdown area of the bottom 25%+, this rally only happens when a bear market is ending, and only at the very beginning of a bull market. At the same time, it coincides with a weekly-level hidden divergence, along with a trend showing a head-and-shoulders bottom. Any subsequent pullbacks are relatively good opportunities.

4. Drawdown Space Perspective:

From 126k to 58k, roughly a 55% drop. Since the YoY decline itself narrowed, this time the big pie’s total amount exceeded 10% of the total, which was bought up by the Wall Street diamond hands using incremental capital, further reducing the drawdown. A 55% decline can be taken as the maximum drawdown, but it just means there are fewer coins that can be bought with a coin-denominated unit—that’s reality.

3. On-chain chip distribution perspective:

The 62k-65k range saw turnover of 213W+ (a big “biscuit”), which is 2x the 103W+ (a big “biscuit”) in the corresponding prior period’s chip peak in the 83k-86k range. The bottom turnover volume is basically sufficient to ignite the market rally—of course, the more, the safer.

2. From the perspective of average holding price:

The four-year 1460-day moving average line (≈ weekly MA200) holds as support (after bottoming with a period of range-bound consolidation, followed by a huge-volume second confirmation, and it happens only once in 2022; otherwise all show a bottoming), and the 200-day moving average line’s body breaks below (previously only once in 2015; otherwise all show a bottoming)

Here’s the probability I increased to 50%+ to confirm that 58k is the bottom logic for this cycle👇：

1. From a time perspective：

The 60k in February may not necessarily be the bottom zone, but after the 60k at the end of August, the subsequent rapid surge and breakout with a huge burst in volume must be taken seriously. Even if it isn’t, it’s basically not far off. The key is that at the end of the four-year cycle, the timing point about a month comes where a period of consolidation chooses to move upward—leading to an epic-scale breakout pull-up (and the time is already too tight).

📊【8.24 Bitcoin Tiger Weekly Log】58k—The probability of this round bottom surges sharply—Action

Brothers, for the past two weeks I’ve been doing jungle research and playing with quant analysis. I’ve been debugging nonstop, so I ended up missing one weekly entry and one monthly entry. I never expected that the main campaign base camp would suddenly catch fire, to the point where I had to re-examine the original plan.

Based on the data we currently have, the time left for the big cake (BTC) is getting tighter and tighter. It’s time for the left-side thinking to shift to the right-side thinking. Now is the moment to correct the earlier expectation and initiate the B plan. When you get hit, stand at attention—if things deviate greatly from the original expectation, you need to review, analyze, and summarize.

Key factors behind the explosive rise last week:

1. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s expansion of US debt buybacks (improved liquidity)
2. What Trump said: the US is considering buying a “significant” amount of Bitcoin (a potential massive bid expectation)
3. An epic-sized short squeeze liquidation, creating a squeeze-driven rally (the key reversal of the late-bear phase)
4. Expectations for rate hikes within the year dropping to almost none (macro environment improving)

And here are my personal views on this surge (DYOR) 👇:

From the divergence between CVD and OI, we can see that this rapid climb from 65k to 79k was mainly driven by spot markets—continuous passive covering by shorts. This is the opposite of the violent spot/derivatives-fueled rally at the end of 2022, where a CME massive futures move pulled price quickly away from the cost zone. That means this time the buying is truly long-term spot capital, not short-term leveraged funds, so it’s more likely to stay in the market—thereby further increasing the probability that 58k is the bottom of this round.

📊【8.10 BitTiger Weekly Log】US nonfarm shock shatters rate-hike expectations

Brothers, a new week is here again!

To be honest, it’s really hard to wait down here. The patience required is truly at an extreme level. Big BTC was expected to reach 60k by February; now it’s August, and it’s still in the 60s. That means all of the chips for these half a year have been trading back and forth within one large trading range.

Let’s take a look at the BTC recap👇

X2Square Test Release

2026/8/26 11:20:10

📊【4.4 BitTiger Diary】Bear Market Copying Historical Bottoms Just Looking at CVDD is Enough!

Today I’ll share with my brothers one of the indicators that assisted my decision-making in the last round of bottom fishing.
cvdd: is the ratio of the accumulated dollar value of coins destroyed over days to the market age (in days).

Every bear market bottom tests the CVDD price, and many long-term holders consider it the ultimate support. This is one of the reasons I perfectly captured the bear market bottom at the end of 2022.

Many rookie bloggers (especially those who rely on traffic, loud calls, and selling courses) say that buying at over 60K and at over 40K is no different; they claim it’s the same in the long run, stating that this is the bottom, so don’t wait. However, this often ignores the real situation of ordinary people: limited funds, cannot endlessly average down, easily lose confidence when deeply trapped, and have a high probability of heavy losses in a single shot. For them, buying heavily at a halfway point (like the current position of 67K) versus buying at historical bottom areas (around 40K or even lower) results in vastly different experiences and outcomes.

There’s also the “pseudo-long-termism” viewpoint: anyway, BTC might be worth millions in 10 years; now 60K and 40K are indeed similar. But this holds true for those who have held for a few years—it’s easy for them to say, but for ordinary people who are just preparing to enter the market now, it’s like talking without feeling the pain.

Being able to identify the bear market bottom zone and the bull market peak zone reflects a person's complete understanding of Bitcoin, and I do not accept rebuttals.

Currently, the CVDD prices from major mainstream on-chain data websites are:
glassnode: 45500
cryptoquant: 47962
looknode: 50224
BTCmagazine: 47445
coinglass: 47472

Each platform has slightly different parameters, but they are generally within my hitting zone of 35K-50K range. However, as Bitcoin approaches diminishing marginal returns, I also agree with Brother Bullet’s viewpoint: this year $BTC will first break below the CVDD price, just like it first broke below the 200-week moving average in 2022. Please stay tuned! Let’s strive for a doubling, doubling, and doubling of coin quantity!✊✊
BTC: 66800
#比特虎日记 #美国非农就业远超预期 #BTC行情

📊【4.2 BitTiger Diary】ahr999/Rainbow Chart Indicators have become ineffective to a certain extent

First, let's take a look at the principles and usage of ahr999:
ahr999 = (Current Bitcoin Price / 200-Day Investment Cost) × (Current Bitcoin Price / Index Growth Valuation)

The bottom line (0.45) and investment line (0.45~1.2) are fixed thresholds:
< 0.45 → Suitable for heavy bottom buying (historical backtesting probability around 8%)
0.45-1.2 → Suitable for normal investment.
1.2 → Price is relatively high, pause or reduce positions

However, we observe that the historical peaks of the ahr999 indicator show a clear downward trend. The reason can be found in the formula: as the market value of Bitcoin increases, marginal returns decrease, leading to the peak values of ahr999 becoming lower and lower. The bottom buying alerts will occur more frequently at lower values, resulting in a significant decrease in sensitivity and accuracy.

This result directly leads to strategies that rely solely on this indicator to buy in advance. For example, now that the bottom buying area has theoretically passed, the buying intensity should increase, but in reality, compared to previous rounds, it may only just reach the investment line range. If the bullets are used up too early, when the real bottom buying area arrives, one can only stare blankly, and the psychological burden from huge losses will greatly increase. The principle of the Rainbow Chart is basically similar to that of ahr999.

So I believe that both the V2 version of the Rainbow Chart and the V1 version of ahr999 have become ineffective to some extent. Moreover, the investment line and bottom line of the Nine God Index should not just be fixed values as the market value of Bitcoin increases; they should be decreased in a certain negative proportion.
@coinglass_com
Finally, let me say this: do not become obsessed with any single indicator; it is essential to cross-validate through multiple indicators and dimensions. Relying on just one may cause you to miss out or get trapped in the entire bull and bear market✊✊
#比特虎日记 #BTC #四年周期 #熊市抄底

📊【4.1 BitTiger Thinking Record】On-chain Chip Structure Never Lies

Brothers, today I reviewed the chip distribution at the bottom of the bear market in 2022. I placed two images side by side and looked at them repeatedly; it was really impactful. This is one of the reasons why I firmly believe that the bear market hasn't reached its bottom, because I personally experienced what the chip structure looked like at the bottom of the bear market.

On the left is the on-chain chip distribution at the bottom of the bear market in November 2022:
At that time, almost all chips were highly concentrated in the extremely narrow range of $16k-$18k (accumulation), and the market was in despair, with the bottom chip accumulation being very solid. I was staring at the screen every day, but secretly excited—blood was flowing like a river, but the opportunity was really coming!!! (However, I still played it safe and only took less than 30% of the position, confirming almost every day whether we had reached the bottom.)

On the right is the on-chain chip distribution at the top of the bull market in 2025:
The chips have significantly migrated upwards, and the distribution band has widened (the wider the distribution, the more is sold off), with a large accumulation of chips at high levels (red area). These are chips for the market makers to take over. From 2022 to 2025, the chips went through a complete process from low-level accumulation at $16k-$18k to high-level distribution at $85k-$120k. This is the most intuitive process of market makers' operations in the four-year cycle of Bitcoin.

Looking back now, I have deep feelings—In 2022, I firmly bottom-fished in the low-cost zone, and in 2025, I completed my liquidation at an average price of $113k. I was fortunate to witness the complete process of market makers transitioning from extremely concentrated accumulation to high-level distribution, so I never believe anything that any KOLs or institutions say; I only believe the on-chain data I see.

Finally, I hope this wave can successfully fill the planned position✊✊

#比特虎日记 #BTC #Bitcoin #四年周期 #熊市抄底

In September 2029, at this moment, you submitted your resignation, breaking free from the 996 work schedule, leaving behind the annoying leaders and colleagues.
When you walked out of the company gates, the air was so fresh and free. The reason for all this is simply because on a certain day in a certain month in 2026, you gambled on the big pancake #比特币ETF价格战 .

🚀 Crypto Circle Morning Report | 2026/3/26

📊 Today's Hot News:

1. Bitcoin Breaks $70,000, Setting New Historical High
Bitcoin price has surpassed the $70,000 mark for the first time, with positive market sentiment. Analysts believe this marks the beginning of a new bull market.

2. Ethereum ETF Approval Expectations Rise
Several analysts predict that the Ethereum ETF may receive SEC approval within this year, which will bring significant capital inflows to the market.

3. Binance Launches New Derivative Products
Binance announced the launch of BTC/USDT quarterly futures contracts, providing traders with more risk management tools.

4. Solana Network Trading Volume Hits New High
Solana's daily trading volume has exceeded 40 million transactions, with a surge in network usage, indicating a continuous increase in ecosystem activity.

5. Uniswap V4 Development Progressing Smoothly
The Uniswap V4 development team announced that core features have completed testing, with a launch expected in Q2.

#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Cryptocurrency #CryptoCircleNews #Blockchain

📰 Daily Crypto News Flash - March 24, 2026

1️⃣ Latest Draft of the "CLARITY Act": Prohibits Earning Income Solely from Holding Stablecoins
The latest draft of the revised "Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act" in the U.S. Senate prohibits earning income solely from holding stablecoins, limiting practices similar to bank deposits.

2️⃣ Bitcoin Stays Above $70,000; Future Direction Depends on U.S.-Iran "Negotiations"
Bitcoin prices remain above $70,000, but future trends depend on whether tensions between the U.S. and Iran ease or escalate, according to Wintermute traders.

3️⃣ Solana Foundation Launches New Privacy Framework for Institutions
The Solana Foundation believes the next phase of cryptocurrency adoption will rely less on transparency and focus more on allowing companies to control what they disclose and to whom.

4️⃣ Market Shift: Probabilities of Fed Rate Hikes Surpass Rate Cuts for the First Time
The market has significantly repriced expectations for the Federal Reserve, with short-term rate hike probabilities exceeding rate cuts for the first time since the easing cycle began.

5️⃣ JPMorgan Adds $500 Million Financing to Core Scientific, Totaling $1 Billion
Core Scientific has expanded its credit facility to $1 billion, enhancing its push in data center and artificial intelligence infrastructure development.

6️⃣ Dogecoin Technical Analysis: Potential to Create New Cryptocurrency Millionaires
Dogecoin trading prices are nearing historical lows, but technical analysis indicates that the current price structure could create one of the most significant trades in the history of this meme coin.

7️⃣ Bitcoin ETF Sees Fund Inflows for the Fourth Consecutive Week
Despite later selling pressure, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen inflows for the fourth consecutive week.

8️⃣ MoonPay Launches Open Source Wallet Standard for AI Agents
MoonPay's new wallet standard enhances AI financial transactions across blockchains.

9️⃣ Stripe Protocol Could Be a Turning Point for Micropayments
Forrester states that Stripe's machine payment protocol reflects a shift towards automated transactions, as AI agents eliminate behavioral barriers to micropayments.

🔟 Ripple Destroys 10 Million RLUSD Stablecoins
Ripple's stablecoin reserve executed a large-scale destruction of 30 million RLUSD today through two transactions, concluding a week of active supply management.

#cryptocurrency #bitcoin #blockchain #digitalcurrency #investment #BTC #ETH #Solana #stablecoin #DeFi

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