NO ONE IS LOOKING AT THE FUNDING TABLE FROM THE RIGHT PLACE.
Everyone is asking the same thing:
"With so many sales, why is the price still holding up?"
A culprit is being sought: news, the FED, whales, manipulation.
But that’s not the real reason.
THE REAL REASON: LEVERAGE CLEANING.
Without understanding this, those talking about price will lose.
Funding data alone says this:
The market is not falling because spot is not being sold.
But no one is winning because the perpetual is being systematically drained.
LET'S SEPARATE THE FLOW.
ETH:
• 4h–12h perpetual: above -1B$
• Spot side is negative but weak
→ Leveraged longs are being liquidated
→ Spot side is observing, no panic
BTC:
• Perpetual is already heavily negative
• But the difference is: spot is also coming out
• 7d–15d spot: -1B$+
→ Distribution in BTC has been spread out over time
Conclusion:
Risk appetite is being held in ETH, reduced in BTC.
HISTORICAL PATTERN IS CLEAR.
2019 – 2022 – 2023:
• First, the perpetual is drained
• Funding is suppressed
• Price is kept horizontal
• Everyone says "boring market"
• Then direction comes
The same table, the same result.
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
We are exactly at this point:
• Funding is negative
• Volatility is low
• Spot is not panicking
• The perpetual side is quietly being cleaned
This phase is not the start of a trend,
it's the position reset phase.
LET'S GO IN PHASES.
Phase 1: Leverage cleaning (currently here)
Phase 2: Funding balances, spot comes to the fore
After that: Movement starts but most people are late
Everyone is talking about Phase 3.
The market is still in Phase 1.
CLEAR DISTINCTION:
BTC can remain horizontal.
But there will be no altcoin season without spot entry.
ETH can remain strong.
But there will be no healthy rise without funding correcting.
WARNING:
Not everyone can win in this period.
The phenomenon listens, takes a position.
Those looking at data wait.
This is the patience phase.
It’s not excitement, it's filtering time.
$BTC
$ETH
Everyone is asking the same thing:
"With so many sales, why is the price still holding up?"
A culprit is being sought: news, the FED, whales, manipulation.
But that’s not the real reason.
THE REAL REASON: LEVERAGE CLEANING.
Without understanding this, those talking about price will lose.
Funding data alone says this:
The market is not falling because spot is not being sold.
But no one is winning because the perpetual is being systematically drained.
LET'S SEPARATE THE FLOW.
ETH:
• 4h–12h perpetual: above -1B$
• Spot side is negative but weak
→ Leveraged longs are being liquidated
→ Spot side is observing, no panic
BTC:
• Perpetual is already heavily negative
• But the difference is: spot is also coming out
• 7d–15d spot: -1B$+
→ Distribution in BTC has been spread out over time
Conclusion:
Risk appetite is being held in ETH, reduced in BTC.
HISTORICAL PATTERN IS CLEAR.
2019 – 2022 – 2023:
• First, the perpetual is drained
• Funding is suppressed
• Price is kept horizontal
• Everyone says "boring market"
• Then direction comes
The same table, the same result.
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
We are exactly at this point:
• Funding is negative
• Volatility is low
• Spot is not panicking
• The perpetual side is quietly being cleaned
This phase is not the start of a trend,
it's the position reset phase.
LET'S GO IN PHASES.
Phase 1: Leverage cleaning (currently here)
Phase 2: Funding balances, spot comes to the fore
After that: Movement starts but most people are late
Everyone is talking about Phase 3.
The market is still in Phase 1.
CLEAR DISTINCTION:
BTC can remain horizontal.
But there will be no altcoin season without spot entry.
ETH can remain strong.
But there will be no healthy rise without funding correcting.
WARNING:
Not everyone can win in this period.
The phenomenon listens, takes a position.
Those looking at data wait.
This is the patience phase.
It’s not excitement, it's filtering time.
$BTC
$ETH