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#BTC
【Today's Historical Large-Scale BTC Options Concentrated Settlement】2025.12.26
This settlement is also the largest single-day options settlement event in the cryptocurrency field, with specific details as follows:

1. Settlement Scale: The nominal value of the expiring BTC options is approximately $23.6-23.8 billion, totaling about 300,000 contracts, which accounts for more than half of the total open interest in Bitcoin options on the world's largest crypto options exchange, Deribit. Adding Ethereum options, the overall nominal value of this cryptocurrency options settlement reaches $27.4-28.5 billion, doubling from the same period last year.
2. Core Strike Price Levels: The most concentrated strike price range for BTC options is the $85,000 put options and the $100,000 call options. The maximum pain price is close to $96,000, at which the option buyers suffer the most losses, while the option sellers, mainly large institutions and market makers, profit the most. Additionally, the put/call ratio for this options position is 0.38, showing a clear bullish tendency overall.
3. Settlement Market Environment: On the day of the settlement, the BTC price fluctuated narrowly around $87,000; previously, it had broken below the $102,000 365-day moving average and is currently under the downward trend line extending from the historical high of $126,000 in October. Furthermore, since this settlement falls during the Christmas holiday, European and American institutional investors are absent, resulting in insufficient market liquidity. The low liquidity environment has also amplified the price volatility risk brought by this settlement. Just before the settlement, the Binance BTC/USD trading pair experienced an extreme market where the price plummeted from $87,600 to $24,100 and then quickly recovered.
4. Settlement Impact and Market Expectations: In order to hedge risks, options market makers previously held spot or futures positions in the opposite direction of the options positions. With this large-scale settlement, market makers need to significantly close their hedging positions, which can easily trigger sharp and rapid fluctuations in BTC prices. The market considers $80,000-$82,000 to be a key support area. However, the short-term implied volatility of Bitcoin has dropped more than 10% over the past month, and most institutions have already rolled over their positions ahead of time. Therefore, the majority view is that this settlement is likely to cause a brief one-time fluctuation rather than a trending unilateral market, and the market may present a low volatility and slowly declining trend over the next two weeks.
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