The Ethereum price has been hovering around $3000 in recent sessions and has not been able to regain momentum. Such a long-term correction has placed a burden on investor sentiment and is weakening the short-term confidence of Ethereum holders.
However, looking at the changes in on-chain signals and past price movements, it seems that conditions for a rebound could be formed.
Ethereum ETF, continuous outflow of funds
The Ethereum ETF has faced consistent selling pressure over the past two weeks. During this period, there was only one trading day that recorded a net inflow, largely influenced by Grayscale. Apart from that, investors continue to withdraw funds from the ETH ETF, showing caution towards traditional financial markets.
Such capital outflows appear to be a periodic movement rather than a structural phenomenon. If Ethereum re-tests the $2798 support level, buyers may re-enter. A successful rebound and recovery in this range could reset market expectations and lead to a renewed price uptrend.
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On-chain data shows that macro momentum is improving behind the scenes. The change in Ethereum long-term holders' net position (HODler Net Position Change) has risen significantly, approaching the highest level of net outflow in the last five months.
These changes suggest that long-term holders are reducing selling pressure and are regaining confidence in Ethereum's recovery potential. If the indicator exceeds zero, a net inflow of long-term holders will be confirmed. Historically, this phenomenon has supported price stabilization and trend reversal.
As of the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $2978, remaining below the psychological resistance level of $3000. Concerns are being raised about whether ETH will close below this range even in 2025 due to continued hesitation, leading to high volatility and unstable investor sentiment.
However, the flow of ETFs and the movements of long-term holders indicate changes. A correction around $2798 could serve as a basis for a rebound. If Ethereum recovers $3000 as a support level, the price could rise above $3131.
If upward momentum does not appear, the risk of decline remains. A drop below $2798 would further weaken the technical structure. In this case, the price of Ethereum could slide to $2681, which implies that the optimistic outlook is invalidated and short-term bearish pressure intensifies.
