Eagle friends, pay attention! A historic showdown in the crypto world is about to take place this Friday—a $23.6 billion Bitcoin options expiration is imminent, with the key point directed at $96,000! Meanwhile, the MACD death cross is high on the four-hour chart, with bulls and bears fiercely battling at the critical level of 87880. Will the whales drive the price up using options, or will the technical death cross trigger a collapse? I am Xinying, and today I will guide you through the fog to lock in the direction of the trend in advance!
News Depth Explosion:
The Bitcoin options expiring this Friday are valued at $23.6 billion, the largest options expiration in history. The key point is set at $96,000—this means that before expiration, whales and institutions have a strong incentive to push the price towards this level to let the maximum number of options contracts expire worthless (maximizing profits for sellers). This undoubtedly injects a strong 'upward gravity' into the market. However, the expiration of options is both a catalyst and could potentially be a turning point where the 'good news is fully priced in'; once the price is pushed up and fails to hold, selling pressure will surge like a flood.
Technical Analysis Breakdown:
The four-hour chart is currently showcasing a 'dance on the edge of a cliff.' BTC is currently suppressed below 90635 (intraday resistance), with stronger resistance above at 93800 (retracement resistance). After the MACD death cross, it has fallen below the 0 axis, indicating that bearish momentum is being released. The key watershed for long and short positions is at 87880; if it loses this level, it will quickly slide towards 84516 (intraday support) or even 81284 (rebound support). Although the news is leaning bullish, the technicals show a pattern of 'decreasing volume and dominant selling,' which is a typical contradictory signal, indicating that after a period of volatility, a fierce one-sided trend may emerge.
Xinying Core Viewpoint:
The options game of whales and the technical bearish signals are in fierce conflict. I believe that before the expiration on Friday, the market may first pursue an 'expected trend,' attempting to test the 90635-93800 resistance area upwards, and even approaching the maximum pain point of 96000. However, this could very well be a bull trap. If the price rises but the volume cannot sustain the increase and stagnation occurs at the resistance level, a sharp drop of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' is likely to occur, testing the 84516-81284 support range downwards. The overall strategy should be 'mainly short on rebounds, with quick drops capturing rebounds as a supplement.'
Retail Trading Map:
High Short Ambush Area: A rebound to the 90635-93800 range can be used to deploy short positions in batches, with stop-loss set above the previous high, targeting 87880-84516.
Long position speculation area: If there is a clear stop-loss signal around 84516 during a rapid decline, a light position can be taken for a rebound; conservative traders should wait to consider medium to long-term layouts around 81284.
Lifeline Monitoring: 87880 is the watershed for long and short positions. Maintain a wait-and-see approach when the price fluctuates around this level; if it breaks down with volume, go short; if it stands above with volume, be cautious of a rally.
Xinying Ending Warning:
In the options battlefield of whales, retail investors can easily become cannon fodder. Do you want to be swept up by news and chase highs and lows, or do you want to follow professional analysis and ambush in advance? If you want to get precise turning points and real-time strategies before and after BTC options expiration, follow Xinying immediately. I will use the keenest insights to help you seize the opportunity in this epic showdown!
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