I still remember that early morning in 2020—when the Federal Reserve suddenly turned to 'pause interest rate hikes', Bitcoin surged 30% in response, while my heavily leveraged short positions evaporated 800,000 in three days. That suffocating feeling was like being choked and pushed underwater. Ten years ago, I entered the market with 20,000 yuan, and at my peak, my account soared to 2 million, only to fall and get hurt due to arrogance. Today I want to share my heartfelt thoughts with you: in the crypto world, living long is a hundred times more important than making money quickly.
1. Blood and Tears Lesson: The 1.2 million 'tuition' I paid
Blindly betting on policies, losing all due to poor understanding
I once believed that the Federal Reserve's decisions were the market's guiding light, staying up late analyzing officials' speeches, only to be slapped in the face by sudden news. Later, I understood: institutions might predict policies, but retail investors can only predict 'institutions' predictions'. This information gap destined us to be losers. The real opportunities to make money always come from the laws of the market itself, not from chasing news.
Greed is insufficient, treating floating profits as strength
At the peak of the bull market, my account value once broke 2 million. People around me advised me to withdraw, but I thought, 'If it goes up another 10%, I'll stop,' but as a result, a round of crash caused a significant profit pullback. The essence of wealth in the crypto world is fluid—money not in your wallet is merely a temporary deposit in the market.
Easily believing in 'myths' and randomly touching air coins
In the early days, I bought a coin packaged as the 'Web3 revolution', the white paper was all hollow slogans, and as a result, the project team ran away, and the principal went straight to zero. Now I only stick to one principle: if a coin cannot clearly explain its actual application scenario, I won't touch it no matter how popular it is.
2. The iron rule that keeps me alive
1. Position management: never let a bomb blow up your account
Single coin position ≤ 30%, total position ≤ 50%
Even if I am optimistic about Bitcoin, I will never exceed a 30% position. The remaining funds are split, half reserved for additional buying ammunition, and half converted to stablecoins to earn interest. Last year's LUNA collapse was precisely what this rule helped me withstand the volatility.
Apply the '235 rule' flexibly
I now build positions in three steps: first invest 20% of the base position to test the direction, increase by 30% after confirming the trend, and keep the remaining 50% flexible for swing trading. This way, even if I make a wrong judgment, the loss is within a controllable range.
2. Profit realization: turn floating profits into real money
Must withdraw half of profits at 20%
This is the strict rule I set after losing 800,000. For example, if I earn 100,000, I immediately transfer 50,000 to a cold wallet or convert to stablecoins. Only the money in your wallet is yours; otherwise, it is just a number in the account.
Take partial profits in a bull market, and huddle coins in a bear market
In the early bull market, sell on the rise, not on the fall; reduce positions by 10% every 30% increase; in a bear market, turn off the trading software and focus on dollar-cost averaging mainstream coins. History proves that 90% of the profits in the crypto world come from 10% of the time; missing the peak is not as good as waiting for the next bus.
3. Target selection: only eat 'meat you can understand'
Mainstream coins are the bottom line, new coins need to be verified
My current position is 70% Bitcoin and Ethereum, with 30% allocated to Layer 2s supported by ecosystems (like ARB, OP). Before buying any new coins, first flip through the white paper and ask three questions:
✅ Is the team real-named? Is the code open source?
✅ What real problem does it solve? How many users are there?
❌ If the answer is vague, directly block it.
Beware of 'high yield traps'
If you see a staking project with an annualized return of over 50%, first assume it is a Ponzi scheme. The truly stable returns (like Ethereum staking) are often only 4%-7%.
Three sincere words for beginners
Don't use 'urgent money' to gamble on tomorrow
Housing loans, tuition, and living expenses must not enter the crypto world. Only invest spare money; if you lose, it won't affect your life, and your mindset won't collapse.
Give up the illusion of 'getting rich quick'
I have an annualized return of about 25% over ten years, relying on compound interest + discipline. The most misleading saying in the crypto world is 'a hundredfold in a year'; rather, those who gradually become rich survive until the end.
Policy is the direction, not the Bible
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes may affect short-term volatility, but in the long run, Bitcoin's trend is more determined by supply and demand, halving cycles, and institutional entry. The advantage of retail investors is flexibility, not prediction. Follow Muqing to learn more about first-hand information and precise points in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth! #加密市场观察 $ETH
