The non-farm data will be released tonight, and the market is brewing with hidden currents. The fluctuation range of ETH between $2850 and $3161 is a battlefield where opportunities and risks coexist.
Tonight at 20:30, the United States will release the non-farm payroll report for September. This is a delayed data (originally scheduled for early October), but it has become a key battle to determine whether ETH can break through the $3200 mark this month.
The market has already played out a scenario of a double whammy: first, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve triggered a sharp drop in ETH from around $3100, and then officials made statements to calm the market, leading to a rapid V-shaped rebound. This kind of volatility is a prelude to the non-farm data.
01 Non-farm data: Delayed but important.
The reason this non-farm data is so important is that it presents complex bullish and bearish signals. The data shows that the non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, which appears very strong on the surface.
But a closer look reveals hidden dangers: the unemployment rate has risen from 4.3% to 4.4%, reaching the highest level since October 2021. This combination of 'strong growth but weak quality' has left the market in a dilemma of interpretation.
Historical experience indicates that the crypto market's response pattern to non-farm data is changing. In the past, weak data was usually favorable for Bitcoin, as it would raise expectations of interest rate cuts; strong data would be bearish.
But this year in July, when the non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding expectations, Bitcoin instead rose against the trend, briefly breaking the $110,000 mark. This deviation from traditional logic may indicate that cryptocurrencies are forming an independent price logic.
02 Technical aspect: Key positions have been identified.
From a technical analysis perspective, ETH is currently at a critical turning point.
The candlestick pattern shows that the 1-hour chart has formed a combination of 'long lower shadow hammer + three white soldiers', which is a typical bottom reversal signal. The recent low point happened to hit the 200-day moving average support level on the daily chart, forming a 'golden pit' level of pullback opportunity.
In terms of indicators, after the MACD golden cross below the zero axis, the energy bars continue to expand, indicating that the white line has broken through the zero axis, meaning the short-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish. The RSI indicator has rebounded from the oversold area to around 55, showing there is still room for upward movement and no overbought pressure has appeared.
The key level is very clear: the upper level of $3,099 is the resistance level of the past two weeks, and it corresponds to the MA60 moving average position on the daily chart. Once it breaks through with volume (the volume needs to reach more than 1.5 times the average), it will directly open up the space to $3,161-$3,200.
The support level of $2,981 below is the recent starting point for the rebound, and it is also the neckline of the hourly chart. Only by breaking below this level will it further test the strong support at $2,850.
03 Capital flows: Whales and institutions have already laid out their plans.
On-chain data reveals the true intentions of large funds. Despite the market's volatility, whales and institutions have not exited; instead, they are increasing their positions on the dips.
Reportedly, a well-known whale with a historical win rate of up to 75% has recently made a significant build-up, but the direction is short—he holds 70,000 ETH short positions, using 15x leverage, totaling $252 million. Such large, high-leverage operations often become catalysts for market turning points.
At the same time, the capital flow of the US spot Ethereum ETF has also undergone significant changes. In early August, there was a single-day outflow of as much as $465 million, breaking the previous trend of inflows for 20 consecutive days. Such extreme liquidity often indicates that a short-term turning point is approaching.
Enterprise-level capital is also quietly laying out plans. Companies like SharpLink have recently adjusted their strategies, and the number of ETH held has exceeded 520,000, with most of it used for staking, indicating institutions remain optimistic about ETH's long-term value.
04 My trading strategy and advice.
Based on the above analysis, my personal view is clear: cautiously leaning towards bullish. Last night’s sharp decline seemed more like a method to clean up leveraged long positions by the main players, and various indicators and capital flows suggest a high probability of an upward breakout in the market.
Specific operational advice:
Position building range: The current price range of $3,030 to $3,035 can be used to gradually build long positions, with position control at 50-70%, and avoid full position trading.
Stop-loss setting: Must be set below $2,980 (in the $2,975-$2,980 range), and once it breaks below, stop-loss immediately to avoid emotional interference.
Target levels: Set in two stages, the first target is $3,099; after breaking through, reduce the position by 20%, and the remaining position will look at the second target of $3,161.
Short position advice: Unless the non-farm data is far below expectations (new jobs below 150,000), it is not recommended to short, to avoid being caught in a bullish market.
For conservative investors, it is also wise to temporarily stay on the sidelines before and after the data is released. Giving up the volatility of non-farm night and waiting for the market direction to clarify before entering is also a wise choice for small capital and heavily invested investors.
The market is most volatile within 30 minutes after the non-farm data is released, and the ETH price may fluctuate by more than 50 points in a matter of minutes. Regardless of the data result, the key is to adhere to the preset stop-loss and take-profit discipline.
I believe tonight's data is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's easing expectations. Powell has previously made it clear that interest rates are in a restrictive range, indicating that the Federal Reserve is more concerned with avoiding excessive tightening rather than uncontrolled inflation.
Regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish, the most important thing tonight is to stay calm. The market will always present another opportunity, but the principal is only one.
Check your stop-loss order one last time, get your bullets ready, but also fasten your seatbelt—non-farm night is never calm. Follow me for more firsthand information and insights into the crypto world, precise points, and become your guide in the crypto space; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 $ETH
