Brothers, Mig is here to defuse the bomb for everyone.
Today's data is definitely not simple—within 24 hours, there was a net outflow of 43,800 ETH from all exchanges, with Binance alone accounting for 25,400. This is not normal withdrawal; this is significant capital quietly shifting.
Generally speaking, when a large amount of ETH flows out of exchanges, it is either large holders moving to cold wallets for storage or preparing to participate in staking and reinvestment. Given the current price consolidation and the market's wait-and-see sentiment, this is more like a signal for mid- to long-term positioning rather than short-term selling.
Message Summary: Funds are quietly settling, short-term selling pressure may weaken, but an increase requires new catalysts. If you're unsure about specific points, you can pay attention to Mig, who provides real-time reminders in the village for friends who have followed me for 24 hours. Chat Room
Looking at the technicals, it's really not optimistic.
On the 4-hour chart, the MACD yellow and white lines have dropped below the 0 axis, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released.
The moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, with 9 sell signals against 3 buy signals; although the RSI is not oversold, multiple indicators like STOCH and Williams%R point to 'sell'. Above the key point, 2960 is the recent resistance ceiling, while 2880-2900 is a buffer zone, and 2775 is the strong support area.
Technical summary: The technicals are dominated by bears; the key is whether 2960 can be broken; otherwise, it will look for support lower. Where exactly to enter, and where is the safest stop loss? Mig's village has already provided reminders; those who want to join, become a Mig villager! Chatroom
How should retail investors respond? Remember Mig's words: Don't chase highs, don't go heavy, trade with limit orders at key positions.
If the 4-hour closes above 2960, a small long position can be taken, targeting 3000-3037, with a stop loss set below 2940.
If the rebound does not exceed 2960, any rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions or test short, looking down to 2900, and if it breaks, look for 2820-2775.
In the 2770-2820 range, positions can be added in batches, betting on a second bottom rebound.
Mig's personal opinion:
ETH is likely to remain in a volatile bearish state today. Although capital outflows are good for the medium to long term, the current technical pressure is obvious, and the volume is not supportive; the chances of a direct V-reversal up to 3100 or even 3180 are very slim. The more likely scenario is to continue grinding around 2949; if it cannot stabilize above 2960, it will test 2900 again, possibly even below 2880.
The conditions for a surge are insufficient, leaning towards a pullback to support first, discussing rebounds only after holding key levels.
If you always feel a step behind the market, constantly 'buying and it drops, selling and it rises', then let me tell you, you are not lacking analysis, you are lacking a professional guide who can remind you in real-time, 'opportunity is coming' and 'run fast'!
If you don't know how to time your entries, you can follow Mig, who will provide real-time analysis in the village, giving the best current entry points!!
