How will the USDT/CNY exchange rate trend for the entire year of 2026?

On December 25, 2025, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate officially broke through the 7.0 mark, reaching a new high since the end of September 2024.

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts: The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in 2026, which will lead to structural weakness in the dollar index, thereby lowering the USDT to RMB price.

Narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US: As the path of interest rate cuts in the US is steeper than in China, the interest rate differential between China and the US is expected to further narrow, reducing the pressure for RMB depreciation.

USDT premium situation: If a bull market occurs in the cryptocurrency market in 2026, USDT may generate a positive premium (i.e., the actual purchase price is slightly higher than the official exchange rate), while in a bear market like the current one, it may have a negative premium.

It is anticipated that the first half of the year will experience fluctuations and accumulation, repeatedly fluctuating around the 7.0 mark. In the second half of the year, the RMB to USD exchange rate may shift towards the 6.6-6.8 range.