Hello everyone, I am Bai Yue. This morning, two pieces of information caught my eye, one is the long-term$ETH , and the other is the immediate 'hard dish'. Looking at them together, there may be key clues hidden for our cryptocurrency circle in the upcoming path.
First, let's look at the news: Can distant water quench immediate thirst?
This morning, Galaxy Securities released an analysis, and the core message is: the US has about 3 rate cut spaces left by 2026. It is 2026, not tomorrow. Why mention this? Because the market is trading on expectations!
Because the economic data is still strong for the time being, the probability of an immediate rate cut in January next year is smaller than before, but the popular Federal Reserve chairman candidate Hassett directly complained: the Federal Reserve has clearly fallen behind the situation on the issue of rate cuts. He made it clear: if GDP can stabilize around 4%, the employment data will improve. However, the growth in the third quarter was mainly driven by temporary factors like inventory and trade, and the job market is quietly weakening. Once employment becomes the focus of policy, along with the new chairman taking office, the overall direction of rate cuts remains unchanged, just pushed back in time.
Baiyue believes that a rate cut = lower global capital costs = more hot money may flow into high-risk, high-potential assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Therefore, the long-term expectations for rate cuts act like a "stabilizer," limiting the depth of market crashes. But in the short term? Because the hope for an "immediate rate cut" has fallen through, market sentiment will be cautious, which explains why the overall atmosphere has been a bit "weak" recently.
Looking at the technical side: What is ETH's 4-hour chart saying?
ETH is currently stuck around 2950 USD, unable to go up or down, which is quite frustrating.
Under heavy pressure: There are several hurdles above at 2990, 3100, and even 3180; without large amounts of capital pushing, it is difficult to break through all at once.
Where is the support: The most recent cushion underfoot is 2945, and below that is around 2775, which is a relatively strong defensive position.
Indicator signals: The yellow and white lines in the chart are all below the 0 axis, indicating that short-term bears are dominant. The most critical issue is "insufficient volume"; there are fewer buyers and sellers, and everyone is on the sidelines. Both bulls and bears are grinding in this small range, waiting for an external force to break the balance.
What should retail investors do now?
Don't act rashly: The worst thing is to chase highs and sell lows. It is not a trending market now; it is a volatile market, and chaotic operations are likely to get you hurt.
Draw the defense line well: Focus on two key positions:
Above 2990: If it can gain volume and stabilize, short-term sentiment may improve, and there is a chance to touch 3100.
Below 2945/2775: If it breaks down and does not recover, be wary of a deeper correction. Especially 2775, that is an important defense line for the bulls.
My personal opinion and operational advice
Combining news and technology, my view is:
Short term: The market may continue to "grind". The Federal Reserve is not easing in the short term, and the liquidity is not loose, thus the conditions for ETH to surge violently are insufficient. It is highly likely to continue oscillating in the range of 2945 - 3100, and it may even test the strong support at 2775 again. Overall, it still leans towards weak oscillation.
Medium to long term: Don't be pessimistic! The interest rate cut cycle is only delayed, not disappeared. Once the U.S. employment data weakens, the expectations for rate cuts will rise again, and that might be the starting point for a new round of market movement. Institutional funds are all waiting for this clearer signal.
The market always has opportunities; the key is to operate calmly. Baiyue will continue to help everyone monitor on-chain dynamics and move steadily forward together! Follow Baiyue and participate in every attack from the Baiyue villagers! Baiyue will announce specific entry times and real-time news every day in the village!
