Hun Sen's two major calculations have both failed, and the Thai army has received guidance from experts while the Chinese side watches coldly!

The Cambodian army has recently been quite embarrassed and defeated. It is clear that the Cambodian army was not prepared at all and did not expect the Thai army to be so high-profile. Behind this are Hun Sen's two core predictions both falling flat.

The first calculation was: "You wouldn't really fight me over this."

Hun Sen clearly believed that the Thai side would not take the risk of escalating the conflict. After all, looking at any one of the Preah Vihear Temple dispute, border smuggling, or the so-called "rare earth mines," none of these are enough to trigger a full-scale military confrontation. Moreover, ASEAN has always emphasized the principle of "not using force."

Sure enough, starting in mid-June, the Thai army launched large-scale exercises in the disputed border area and quickly completed its forward deployment, yet Cambodia remained unperturbed.

The second calculation was: "If it really comes to blows, someone will help me."

Recently, Cambodia has frequently reached out to the United States, even publicly stating its intention to nominate for the Nobel Prize. This is essentially a gesture of allegiance to the U.S., especially since all of Hun Sen's children study in the United States. The U.S. did mediate between Thailand and Cambodia at the previous ASEAN summit, but unexpectedly, this time Thailand completely ignored the U.S. mediation.

Clearly, this time the Thai side has received guidance from experts, targeting places that are casinos and gray industry parks, which makes it difficult for anyone to criticize. Most importantly, the Chinese side has maintained neutrality, watching the current situation with cold eyes. One must understand who benefits the most from the severe crackdown on gray industry parks. Once you grasp this, you will feel that the actions of the Thai army are quite extraordinary.