CoinDesk published an analysis on December 24, 2025, highlighting a historic moment where the paths of gold and Bitcoin intersect, with each approaching highly significant technical levels but in opposite directions.
📈 Gold at a historic crossroads
Gold, when measured against the U.S. money supply (M2SL), is nearing a key resistance level not seen since 2011. More importantly, this same level has only been decisively broken once in modern history during the great rise of the late 1970s, when the price of gold more than tripled.
It is worth noting that gold reaching this level today comes after its increase of 70% during the year 2025 alone, bringing its price to around $4500 per ounce.
📉 Bitcoin is testing cycle support
On the other hand, Bitcoin shows a counter movement. It is now retracing to test a key support level near the lowest price it reached in April 2025 during the turmoil caused by tariffs. This level also represents the previous peak of the cycle that Bitcoin experienced in March 2024. Despite its decline of about 10% this year, Bitcoin continues to make new higher peaks in each cycle when compared to the US money supply.
🔍 Money supply: the critical measure
The analysis focuses on the price of both assets against the total amount of dollars circulated in the US economy (M2 money supply). This measure is important because it shows the true strength of the asset as a safe haven or store of value over time, away from nominal exchange rate fluctuations.
