Opening the market software, seeing that steep downward curve, I knew that many people's accounts had been wiped out again last night.
2850-2900 dollars, this range has become a 'graveyard' for Ethereum bulls. In just 24 hours, as much as 66 million dollars in long positions were liquidated here. Every time the price rebounds to this range, hundreds of trading accounts are forcibly closed, as if an invisible scythe is lurking here.
Market volatility has intensified, and traders are buying options contracts that bet on significant price fluctuations to hedge against risks. Meanwhile, Ethereum fell about 0.9% during the Asian trading session on Tuesday morning, after its price had plummeted 9% the previous trading day, turning nearly 500 million dollars in bullish bets into nothing.
01 Key data reveals the market's dire situation.
This massacre looks even more horrifying from the data perspective. Coinglass data shows that in the past four hours, the entire network saw $481 million liquidated, of which long positions accounted for $462 million and short positions for $19.14 million.
BTC liquidated $159 million, ETH liquidated $134 million. Behind these numbers are countless sleepless nights for traders.
The price of Ethereum has fallen below several important moving averages: MA5 ($3089), MA10 ($3265), and MA30 ($3602). This widespread breakdown indicates that the market's short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends have all deteriorated, with bears fully in control.
Long positions are clearly at a disadvantage, with the long-short ratio dropping to -424.45%, and bearish sentiment in the market is strong.
02 The technical aspect shows a 'death pattern'.
Opening the four-hour chart for Ethereum, technical indicators have deteriorated across the board. The price has not only broken below the long-term uptrend line established since the April breakout but is also being suppressed by a strong downtrend line.
The 20-day EMA has turned downwards, forming dynamic resistance, and bears continue to rely on this moving average to suppress rebounds. The RSI indicator is around 34, clearly breaking below the midpoint, indicating that sellers are still dominating the direction.
More critically, Ethereum is currently being 'squeezed' into a wide symmetrical triangle that has been continuously contracting since the August peak. This pattern typically indicates that a 'big move' is not far off. The current price position is at the tip of this triangle, and any breakout in either direction will trigger significant volatility.
03 Leveraged liquidation and chain reactions.
One of the core driving forces behind this decline is the chain liquidation of leveraged products. Griffin Sears, global derivatives head at FalconX, pointed out: 'Overall, we believe the recent price drop is a controllable deleveraging event for cryptocurrencies. However, compared to a year ago, the increase in cryptocurrency leverage still leaves ample room for significant price volatility.'
In the perpetual futures market, this leverage effect is particularly pronounced. Over the past few months, the number of open contracts on Binance has surged, and speculative activity in Ethereum has been very active. When prices begin to fall, high-leverage long positions are forced to liquidate, triggering a chain reaction.
Chris Newhouse, research director at the decentralized finance-focused company Ergonia, pointedly noted: 'The sharp decline in Ethereum reflects the problems of excessive leverage and insufficient liquidity, rather than being driven by any fundamental factors. In times of stress, Ethereum has again returned to its historical role as a higher beta indicator of digital asset sentiment.'
04 Fundamentals face severe challenges.
In addition to technical factors, Ethereum's fundamentals also face significant challenges. Ongoing low activity on the Ethereum chain and reduced network activity directly lead to decreased ETH demand and increased market supply.
The total value locked (TVL) in the Ethereum network has fallen to $74 billion, the lowest point in four months, shrinking by 13% compared to 30 days ago. Decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume has also plummeted.
Meanwhile, the flow of funds for the US Ethereum spot ETF is also not ideal. The latest data shows that about $19.4 million has flowed out of Ethereum ETFs, while BlackRock has increased its holdings of Ethereum worth about $23.2 million. This diverging flow of funds indicates a disagreement among institutions regarding Ethereum's outlook.
05 Key points in the battle between bulls and bears.
For the upcoming trend, several key price levels are crucial. $3000 is a recent psychological barrier; if it cannot be maintained, the next support level is in the $2880-$2900 range.
If the last line of defense at $2780 is breached, the next support will look towards the liquidity zones at $2632 and even $2192, which are at the daily level. Since the current price is strongly compressed within a narrow range, once key support is lost, it could trigger a rapidly accelerating market event.
On the upside, Ethereum must strongly reclaim $3653 to reverse the bearish structure. Before this position, the area between $3296 and $3490 will also form strong resistance. Only a daily close firmly above these resistance levels can confirm a trend reversal.
Looking back at this crash, it seems that the main players had premeditated plans. Approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expired at the end of September, one of the largest expirations in history, exacerbating market caution. A large number of options contracts betting on price volatility have provided fuel for market volatility.
Matrixport's chart analysis indicates that Bitcoin has just entered a rare phase: positions, market sentiment, and macro policies are colliding simultaneously. This collision is more severe in Ethereum.
The market always finds a bottom in panic and a top in euphoria. When the long-short ratio reaches an extreme of -424.45%, and when $66 million in long positions are liquidated, perhaps the market is not far from a short-term rebound.
But don't forget, before a clear trend reversal, bottom-fishing halfway up is more dangerous than catching falling knives. Follow me for more first-hand information and accurate points on cryptocurrency knowledge; learning is your greatest wealth! #ETH走势分析 $ETH
