Today's thematic concept sentiment is pretty good, but it still feels like something is missing overall. Does anyone know why? Here are a few urgent points;

1. This afternoon, the Hong Kong stock market will close early due to Christmas, and it will not open tomorrow and the day after; trading will officially resume next Monday. Tonight, the U.S. stock market will also close early, and it will continue to remain closed tomorrow night, with normal trading on Friday night;

This means that for the next two days, the A-share market won't have to pay attention to the fluctuations in the external markets, and will need support from domestic capital to bolster the overall sentiment of the A-share market.

2. Regarding today, the overall sentiment in the thematic concepts has been quite good, with nearly 4000 stocks rising. Micro-cap stocks and the CSI 2000 index are leading the gains, which indicates that most stocks have increased, unlike yesterday's market where the index rose but individual stocks fell.

Yesterday's market atmosphere was extreme, with the index rising while individual stocks fell; today presents another extreme, controlling the index while the thematic stocks rise;

For retail investors, most people likely prefer today's A-share sentiment, but I still feel there’s something lacking in today’s market. Where does this manifest? This relates to a few points:

Firstly, the volume today is too noticeably low.

A decrease in volume at the bottom is a good thing, but when there's a decrease in volume within a key resistance area, it can easily lead to a lack of confidence and a pullback. For example, during the rebound days at 3815 points, the overall market also saw reduced volume, but that was after a second bottom, and there was still some distance from the resistance area, so rising with low volume was not a concern;

Now the index has reached near the resistance area, with yesterday's high at 3937 points pulling back, and the previous high at 3936 points, meaning that around 3950 points is a clearly defined resistance area.

If this position continues to see low volume, it won't be good. In the morning, the volume was nearly a trillion, and in the afternoon, with the Hong Kong stock market closing early, the volume is expected to decrease even more. If there’s no increase in volume in the next two days, the effect of widespread rises in individual stocks may also be hard to sustain;

Secondly, today the thematic concepts are blooming in multiple areas, and the atmosphere of individual stocks is relatively good, but the afternoon is still an important test:

In the large financial sector, insurance weakened today, and in the short term, one should be aware of the risk of insurance facing a corrective drop. Banks rebounded from the bottom, and brokerage firms rose today; it’s clear that brokerages are compensating for the weakness in insurance;

Because any weakness in either the banking or insurance sector will impact the index, so today the rise in brokerages is a hedge against the weakness in insurance. Yesterday, the brokerages were weak, with insurance and banking compensating, which is the strategy of capital controlling the hedge;

Even though brokerages bounced back, the overall excitement is insufficient, so they cannot stir market sentiment;

In recent days, the sentiment in the A-share market in the morning and afternoon has fluctuated, so one should still be aware of the possibility of a drop in individual stock sentiment this afternoon. This scene reminds me of Monday's market performance;

On Monday, the index and individual stocks collectively rebounded, with over 4000 stocks rising. However, as individual stock sentiment fell in the afternoon, some funds were realized, and then on Tuesday, a large number of individual stocks began to decline.

So, if this afternoon individual stock sentiment drops and funds realize profits in the afternoon or at the closing, tomorrow's individual stock sentiment may not be optimistic; this is where the extreme changes in short-term individual stock sentiment lie.

3. Considering the transaction volume of the two markets this morning, as well as the performance of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, one should still be vigilant about the possibility of a sentiment drop in the afternoon.

Because today what rose were individual stock themes, while the large-cap index fell, the market volume in the afternoon may still further shrink, which means that if the large-cap index continues to be sluggish in the afternoon, it may drag down the sentiment of thematic stocks;

Therefore, it is not recommended for everyone to open new positions today, unless, of course, your position is very low and a clear turning signal appears in the direction you are optimistic about.

4. Regarding the direction of the current A-share market, everyone should have seen that there are actually no new changes, still revolving around the previously popular sectors like technology, energy, commercial aerospace, intelligent driving, and other hotspots;

A good signal is that today, commercial aerospace has negated the adjustments of the past two days, which is a sign of a strengthening trend. Today's reversal and surge may not be suitable for chasing after, but if there’s a divergence and pullback later, it could be considered to participate in leading stocks with stronger trends;

Apart from the large technology sector that institutions are clustering around, in terms of themes, commercial aerospace is the strongest in trend;

Regarding nuclear pollution prevention, this was discussed in last night's review. Currently, it seems to be more affected by news, so after the big rise today, don’t chase it. Although the sector is leading today, the substantial gains are from a minority, likely a one-day event;

As for the robotics sector, I think everyone should pay close attention because it rebounded near the 60-day moving average. Once it breaks and stabilizes above the 60-day moving average, it will return to a positive trend;

5. Now, observe some repeatedly active themes, as this may be the key point for the upcoming spring rally, because the spring rally every year mainly features themes with significant elasticity;

In a broad direction, it still focuses on technology, anti-involution, and domestic consumption, while the thematic areas are mainly storage chips, commercial aerospace, robotics, autonomous driving, price increases, and other subdivided directions;

Combine this with your own positions; during times of widespread declines in individual stocks, when sentiment is at a freezing point, or if the index experiences rapid adjustments, these broad directions and thematic subdivisions are your gradual participation targets.

These need to be closely monitored, rather than only paying attention after every rise, and not always relying on others to point out opportunities before participating;

This afternoon, there’s no necessity to act, overall, it’s best to maintain a cautiously optimistic stance. Yesterday saw widespread declines in individual stocks, today widespread rises in individual stocks, and the fastest change may occur tomorrow.